orioles

Persistence in the long haul of a season's baseball betting

A losing bet is a losing bet - that's it; but they're often the most useful learning tools for your gambling. Having just watched last night's Reds/Giants game, I'm reminded that baseball is a fickle mistress.

Sanchez was as horrible as I thought he would be; he walked 5 and hit one in 6 innings, including putting three lead-off batters on (the cardinal sin for any pitcher) and then managed to get out of a variety of terrible jams (including a bases loaded, no out inning) with minimal damage. When the equally hapless Volquez (who walked 3 himself, including lead-off hitters again, and the team walked seven in all) cocked up his base running, only to then get doubled off second from deep left field, I just shook my head at the wonderful idiocy of it all.

"Those leadoff walks come back to haunt you, which it did us at least," Reds manager Dusty Baker said, ruefully noting the Giants somehow escaped.

The moral is that baseball has some craziness built in, and you have to maintain your discipline and trust your analysis to get through a long season with your sanity and your wallet intact.

Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees

Try this; since May 23rd, the tribe have dropped 14 of 18, nine of their last 10 and the last four on the bounce. Since the beginning of this month, the club's ERA is 5.26 (27th in the league) and opponents are hitting .297. On offense, they sport a .292 OBP (25th) and a .225 Average (27th).

Carrasco actually has the better numbers here, and I would happily oppose Burnett at the price, were it not for his recent record against Cleveland and the terrible atmosphere that seems to pervade the Indians' clubhouse. Carrasco definitely has the stuff, but maybe it's a little early. The Yankees are really hitting too - perhaps showing the home fans they're better than the Boston series?

I don't like the Totals and can't have pinstripes SU at the price, so I'll take a small interest in the run line - although this is by no means the ideal position for this type of bet.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-49 (-2.96pts)