Handicaps at York are always competitive affairs and the 4.25 there this afternoon is no different but I'm hoping that we can eke a trade from the race, Capt Carey, Maoyoman, Mr Optimistic should all travel well here and shorten up in running. Captain Carey is the one to concentrate on firstly, he is our main one for this race, a low draw always helps and he is drawn 3, horses that run prominent do well here, as he is, he is in decent form running well last time out despite being hampered at the start. Its not a bomb proof as he was fav for this race last year but a slow start never let him get involved, he has the draw today so a good start is a must. Backed at 12 leave an in running trade of 7.2 for a profit of 1.3 pts or a lay off price of 7.8 for a one pt all green screen
Mayoman was the one who's hood was taken off late last time out and may also be good enough to trade 9.6 would leave a lay off of 5.7 or 6.4 needed in running for anyone who fancy's an alternative or having a go at trading on two in a race.
Its been tipping it down at Hamilton park this afternoon and I'm hoping that the rain will have got into the ground enough to help Prince Rhyddarch in the next at 6.30, all his best efforts have come on soft or heavy ground and his two wins have been close to this distance, he is showing much improved form for the switch to the Michael Dods stable, he goes well for an apprentice and Levey takes off a useful 3lb, back up in trip today I hope he can give us a nice trade. Backed at 6.8 leaves us needing an in running lay off price of 4.1 or 4.5 for either a 1.3 or 1 pt profit if matched.
I get quite a lot of messages from people asking about staking for trading purposes and also from people asking about where best to research horse form for in running purposes. Firstly the staking.
There are many ways of staking for trading purposes, the method I use is not a greedy one but one which allows us to green up all round in otherwords to make a profit regardless of which horse wins the race. The win stake is always 2 points, this is the biggest liability we have so we can never lose more than 2 points in any one race. The lay off stake is 3.35 points which would give you a 1.3 pt profit if matched. The other way is the same 2 pts win but a lay off stake of 3.05 pts which would give you an all green profit of 1 pt. Everyone backs with different stakes so lets assume 1 pt = £10, Example,
7.20 Clonmel, Van Wyck is one for us today, backed at 5.7 for say £20 (two pts) then lay off for 3.05 pts = £30.50 at 3.75, this would give you an all green screen after commission to the value of approx £10 or 1 pt.
The same using a lay off of 3.35 points or £33.50 would return 1.3 pts or £13 all green profit, the more you want to make of course the lower the price has to be so the lay off price will then be 3.4.
Finding horses form for in running. There is only one place to go for this and that is to Timeform, if you go to
Here you will find how to access the timeform race passes where you will find their in running assessment of every horse in every race, how the horse runs in the early stage of the race, the middle stage and the latter stage, read the guide and you will find many different angles that might give you an edge for trading purposes. You will find every stat you need and more, much more.
Or you could just keep reading this blog I suppose !!
Note at 19.30 Van Wyck wins and gives us a nice trade, happy days.
I've spent the last few days making some anti post bets for Royal Ascot with a view to trading them closer to the time or in running on the day. There is always a risk with anti post bets of course, try and get non runner no bet. Rites of Passage especially so, you want a price 'with a run'
In the King Stand Stakes on the opening day I've taken 20 and 21 about the American Horse Bridgetown, the 4 yr old seems to be on the up and should be capable of giving a good account in this five furlong dash, the ground should be of no concern as the colt has won on firm and also yielding back home. Backed at 21 leaves a lay of price of 12.5 needed to green up all round for 1.3 pts. I'm hopeful this one will shorten up well before the race and maybe trade before we even go to post.
On Wednesday in the Queen Mary there are no betfair markets yest on this race but I did get 3/1 at the books about Shumoos, this filly was more than just a little bit impressive when making her debut at haydock slamming Frederick Angels in the process, Frederick Angesl went on to win a class 2 race at Edinburgh to frank the form. Backed at 4 leaves me needing a lay off price pre race or in running of 2.16, different here as that will give me a full 2 pts profit should she win and 1.3 pts should she trade but lose.
Thurday in the first race at 2.30 sees a horse who beat Frederick Angels on his debut in the line up, the in form Kevin Ryan stables representative is Bapak Chinta who led all the way that day, ok FA was making his debut and improved for that race but Bapak Chinta is one of his best 2 yo and should give a good account, backed at 10 means that looking for a full 2 points profit for a win and 1.3 point proft should we get matched but lose the race we need a lay off price of 5.8 in running.
The King Edward the VII stakes at 3.05 sees Alexander Pope out to a huge price, 22 seems far too big for him, there is a very good chance that he will see out this 12 ffurlongs, he wasnt stopping over ten last time and he is sure to go well today, he has traded in all seven of his races to date, backed at 22 looking to lay off at 11 for a full two points profit or lay off at 13 for a 1.3 poinys profit.
On Saturday the Wokingham is always a well contested affair and the prize could go north to Michael Easterby with Hoof It an impressive winner at York last time and looks to still be on the upgrade, raised just six pounds for that which looks very fair and hopefully Fallon will have the ride, backed at 365 for 9/1 (10.0) leaving a lay off trade of 5.9 for a 1.3 losing profit or a 1.5 winning profit. Could be a nice wedding present as one of the Easterby's gets married the same day !!
Saturday also brings us the Golden Jubilee Stakes where I fancy that the Charles O'Brien trained Bewitched will run well, she was very impressive at Lepardstown last time out when given a beating and 6lb to Zoffany, has the hallmark of a still improving filly and might give Delegator and co a good race in receipt of the 3lb fillies allowance, backed at 14/1 (15.0) leaves me needing a lay off price pre race or in running of an average of 8.8 for a profit of 1.3 pts or 1.8 if she wins the race, alternatively to make a 1 pt profit the lay off price would be 9.8.
In the 9.00 Bertie Southstreet is a big price at 21 and should be able to trade for us, up just 3lb for his win last August, his new stable is firing one or two winners in and his prominent style of racing should be enough to bring down the price in running to the needed 12.5 for a 1.3 point profit, he has traded in 5 of his last six races and should do so again tonight.
In the first this evening at Bath something that we all want runs in the thirteen furlong handicap, that being, Money Money Money, the five year old mare is down in the weights and down in class, having been available to trade in all seven of her races since blinkers were applied, lets hope that tonight is no different, she has proved herself on the course, on the going and over the distance, has her regular jockey up tonight and available to back now at 6.4 means that we need a lay off trade in running of 3.85 to give us an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts or lay off at 4.3 for a one point profit.
In his blog on betfair this morning Michael Bell has confirmed the well being of one of his horses running at Epsom this afternoon that I hope will give us a trade in the 3.25, Prompter is the gelding in question. A quirky type who would shock us all if he was to win today as he only has managed to get his head in front at the line just the once so far. However in 12 career races to date he has managed to trade in 11 of them, the one bad race was at Chester which we can forgive him for. He has been ridden twice before by Jamie Spencer finishing second and third, he can be ridden prominently or can be held up, the important thing is that regardless of how he is ridden at some stage of the race he is 'put in' with a chance of some sort and his price drops accordingly. This morning bet 365 very nicely put him up at 12/1 (13.0) The good going should pose no problem nor should the distance. Backed at 13 means an in running lay of 7.9 is required for a 1.3 profit all round or lay off at 8.6 for an all green screen to the value of 1 point. To normal stakes.
An odds on favourite there may well be and he may win like an odds of favourite but Fire Fighter owes his position in the market to the feats of his trainer and not on what he has achieved on the racecourse so far. The horse I'm pinning hope on for a trade is Countrywide Fame, beaten but ran decently at Leicester last time and before that the gelding won over today's course and distance with a fair bit in hand over Silver Tigress. The extra distance seems to suit Countrywide Fame and in two races upped to 11f he has traded easily and in five races since cheekpieces were applied he has traded all five times. Going and distance are no problem and his winning jockey is back on board, I'm hoping that he is ridden from the front again and stays there long enough to give us our trade. With SJ pushing the price out to 5/1 (6.0)and a look around the exchanges and you will find 6.2 best at the moment, leaving a lay off price in running of 3.7 for a profit of 1.3 pts or lay off at 4.1 for an all green screen to the value of 1 point.
Rebecca Romera has a big pull in the weights for finishing second to a well handicapped horse that day in Decider who was running from his much lower turf mark. Back on the all weather though Decider is a much better horse than he has been on the green grass and although Rebecca Romera has also won on the all weather and should turn the tables on Decider I'm sticking with Decider for the trade. He's traded in ten of his last eleven races, this is his distance, going and jockey. Ideally ridden from the front and I'm hoping he gets a nice easy lead tonight and stays there long enough for the price to tumble and give us a trade. Backed at 8.2 leaves us needing a lay off price of 4.9 for a profit all round of 1.3 point or a lay off in running at 5.4 for a one point all green screen.