In his blog on betfair this morning Michael Bell has confirmed the well being of one of his horses running at Epsom this afternoon that I hope will give us a trade in the 3.25, Prompter is the gelding in question. A quirky type who would shock us all if he was to win today as he only has managed to get his head in front at the line just the once so far. However in 12 career races to date he has managed to trade in 11 of them, the one bad race was at Chester which we can forgive him for. He has been ridden twice before by Jamie Spencer finishing second and third, he can be ridden prominently or can be held up, the important thing is that regardless of how he is ridden at some stage of the race he is 'put in' with a chance of some sort and his price drops accordingly. This morning bet 365 very nicely put him up at 12/1 (13.0) The good going should pose no problem nor should the distance. Backed at 13 means an in running lay of 7.9 is required for a 1.3 profit all round or lay off at 8.6 for an all green screen to the value of 1 point. To normal stakes.
Morning gurka, I'm not so sure, given that he has only ever won one race I think there is a fair chance he will drift in the win market at some stage on betfair,(or the other exchanges) he's been as high as 14.5 so far and may drift out, lots of time yet. Its always a risk when taking an early price in these sort of handicaps, I just couldnt resist the 12/1 when other books were only 17/2 at the time.
I've been following your blog for a while now and just wondered when you say "However in 12 career races to date he has managed to trade in 11 of them" do you gather this data by the historical data provided by betfair or do you track horses and make you own records.
Hi Woops, its a bit of everything, I have my own records and do some research, if you were looking for a pointer then the Timeform in running cards give you lots of information that will help you on your way.
Comments: 10
I've been following your blog for a while now and just wondered when you say "However in 12 career races to date he has managed to trade in 11 of them" do you gather this data by the historical data provided by betfair or do you track horses and make you own records.
Well done recently
cheers jinx
Last is as good as first for trading purposes benjas !! I'll take the trade and last place every day of the week !!