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(UK ONLY) ALL WEATHER FORM PICKS 2016/17
(UK ONLY) ALL WEATHER FORM PICKS 2016/17
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ZABEEL 9/4 into 15/8 only beaten a head matched as low IR 1.20 for around 2k
BANK 2.80 minus onwards and upwards |
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Roadrunner, one day you will stop betting under 5/2....
I wish you well. I have traveled that road.. |
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i know what you are saying, thats twice ive been beaten on the running by the established middle distance horse in the race, both races
had the 1-2 in those races, just the wrong way round for the win. cant complain the form worked out perfectly. this year will all be about learning the prices, its long apprenticeship becoming a successful gambler, i do find better value selections, only yesterday i had good one lined up, it was 13.94 BFSP and romped home, wont mention the name, ive always found a good percentage of my value selections never move in the markets, so can be backed at SP'S in the shops allover london. im just easing my way back into gambling slowly again, so im missing a few winners here and there, because im not looking at every race yet. will start looking at more races soon, and gradually move away from betting at the front of the markets. old habits die hard. |
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ICE ROYAL 13/2 in places 6/1 into 5/1 beaten 1/2 length placed 3rd matched low IR 2.20 for around 2k
JACK OF DIAMONDS 25/1 calculating that for my figures at 14/1 into 11/1 brilliant racing today on the AW back next week, will have to look in depth at the form next week. BANK 3.80 minus |
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Jack of diamonds was 8s in the morning drifted like a barge out to 14s on here maybe bigger,if that had been showing anything like its real form would've been fav for that race.
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Jack of diamonds was 8s in the morning drifted like a barge out to 14s on here maybe bigger,if that had been showing anything like its real form would've been fav for that race.
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wasnt wanted in the markets today, everything was drifting today to unbelievable prices, markets where allover the place in those races at lingfield
see that FAST PLAY in the 12.50 was in a better than average time for the grade race against CHARISMATIC MAN on 26th nov and that selling race was full of donkeys today. |
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not sure the time of the race, or what it beat, but you had to impressed with BLAZE OF GLORY ( 2-35 ling. )
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yes the time of the race compared very well with the other 8f races at lingfield, was the best time of the day over 8f, the dam is rated 103
listed winner over 10f, maybe they will race it over 10f next timeout, more than likely will be priced accordingly. |
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class 3 12f 4.30 wolverhampton tomoro
HOT BEAT had just the one race for david simcock beaten 4 1/2 lengths in a class 2 over C/D which is a positive, the trainer has had 7 winners so far this year, and is in good form. forecast price 8/1 ALINSTANTE unlucky loser LTO in a class 3 over 12f beaten a nose by the progressive BURCAN, the 3rd in that race NATURAL SCENERY has franked the form and won a class 2 next timeout, the 4th has come out and won a class 4. sir mark prescott has had a couple of winners from 3 runners last few days. im expecting a big run tomoro, will it be good enough to get the win? forecast price 15/8 will wait and see what the prices are like later |
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Fav won't be bigger than 7/4 15/8 in that race...
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going to split the stakes again 0.50 HOT BEAT 10/1 0.50 ALINSTANTE 15/8 paddy power
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ALINSTANTE 2/1 CORALS
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6/4 best now. 11/8 corals.
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class 2 6f 3.40 kempton tomoro
looks a good opportunity for SUTTER COUNTY rated 103 racing against mainly 80/90 horses in this race, already has the beating of VISIONARY 91 and TOMILY 99 on collateral form, wasnt suited by the 5f LTO fell out of the stalls and was beaten 1 length in that class 2, finishing fast but the race was already over. needs the win here in this AW championship qualifier. SUTTER COUNTY 9/4 forecast price will wait and see what the prices are like later |
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SUTTER COUNTY 3.40 5/2 paddy power 11/4 betfair sportsbook
SUTTER COUNTY 1 POINT WIN |
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KKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMM
back with a BANGGGGGGGGGGGGG HOT BEAT 10/1 into 7/2 told u i can find the value picks  |
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HOT BEAT 1ST 10/1 into 7/2
ALINSTANTE 3RD 15/8 into 11/8 both placed  BANK 0.70 profit |
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Best to always split stakes if you think two are value as I said a few days ago,if you get the form right then it has to be the way to bet,if you see two double figured prices that you really like then it's even worth splitting stakes and backing the pair ew as I do..
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didnt really think the fav was value, looked like it was always going to end up another overbet selection, suppose im being cautious, and with the form being franked, looked a danger in the race. there was good write up for ANTIQUARIUM on the ATR, recommend that website highly, very informative, with that winning the northumbland plate was an obviuos pick, should of split the stakes on lot more races earlier on in the thread.
slowly starting to get to grips with this overbet theory. |
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before was only looking at form on the racing post, now i can see the pace of the horses on ATR , plus it has some good tipsters on there,
good writers with lots of different angles on races, eye catchers, speed ratings. hugh taylor knows his stuff, good piece today about the race on saturday with ice royal, about it being in the top 10 of fastest races run at wolves out of 312 races. |
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Some of those times are meaningless though as tracks sometimes quicker than otherdays and unless you get some decent pace in these races you don't get the times even though 312 races I doubt that race on Saturday means those horses are all well rated quite the opposite,they are still worth noting but they mean that horses get overbet,,,
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class 3 8f fillies handicap 6.20 kempton
ABSOLUTE BLAST has been raised 12 lbs for its last win over 9.5f, back down in trip now and this race, there is lot more established performers who have won at this level, and they are all getting weight. there could still be more to come from ABSOLUTE BLAST and still looks unexposed. forecast price 9/4 its another shortie will wait and see what prices are like later |
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9/4 will be more like evens I would've thought...
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9/4 will be more like evens I would've thought...
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these forecast prices are not my predictions, just taking them off the ATR website, at evens think i will leave it alone.
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SUTTER COUNTY 2ND just beaten a neck 11/4 in places 5/2 into 9/4 rule 4 in that race, around 2k matched IR 1.52, paid well on the place 1.95
shame they ran that SECOND THOUGHT in this race, mentioned that horse on this thread as good horse, was an unexposed horse, which are always dangerous. BANK 0.30 minus |
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was a good time that run of ABSOLUTE BLASTS last win that day over 9.5f, compared to the time of GLEAMING GIRLS win on the same night over 8.5f
ABSOLUTE BLAST was carrying 15lbs more than GLEAMING GIRL that night. at same track. but at 10/11 with bet 635, going to leave it this time, still hope it romps home |
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Been very disappointing sutter county,monster speedfigure on debut ran well at Newcastle last two runs abysmal..
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dont think would be interested in backing sutter county again, any time soon, the whole complexion of the race changed once visionary was a non runner, although i said sutter county had the beating of that on collateral form, it still hadnt raced over 6f, so there was some potential there. munro its level of form was already exposed, and letmestopyouthere was a 7f horse, there was a few formlines that showed tomily had no chance against sutter county. rev forecast as a saver with the winner was the bet, and the winner was fancied in the sporting life preview. robert winstone
gave the winner a superb ride. |
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RR
How many bets have you had on this thread pls. How many have won. What is p+l comparison for 5/2 and less with 11/4 and above...pls ty.. |
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31 races so far / 33 selections
8 selections 5/2 or under / 1 winner at 1/1 = 6.00 points minus 25 selections 11/4 or over / 6 winners = 10.30 points profit 7 winners paid 12.25 at SP ( 13.75 minus at SP for 33 selections so far ) basically you could of been laying my picks and making bombs |
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8 selections at 5/2 or under / 4 horses were placed and went IR 1.40 / 1.25 / 1.20 / 1.40
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mistake
8 selections at 5/2 or under / 4 horses placed and 5 horses went IR 1.40/ 1.25/ 1.20/ 1.40/ 1.52 |
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2.35 class 5 5f southwell tomoro
looks a two horse race between NUZHA and WHITE ROYALE, without knowing what the other horses are capable on this surface, NUZHA you would have to forgive its poor run LTO in a class 4 over C/D, before that was an easy winner by 4 1/2 lengths beating golden opportunity who won next time out, the track was riding sow that day and the time of race was 4 seconds slower than standard. WHITE ROYALE has been racing in better races and was beaten 2 1/2 lengths over 6f in a class 2 at southwell, that race was 0.04 slower than standard but the track was riding fast that day, negatives for WR are the trainers stats 5% for 3yos and jockey 4%. suppose this could come down to track conditions fast/ slow. ive changed my mind here and im now thinking, NUZHA might be the one?? forecast price NUZHA 3/1 maybe thegiggilo will have a view on these two horses |
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im going to leave this race alone now, havent really got an edge in this race, would be just guessing here. will find something better for fri/sat
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Thats great RR ty...
It speaks for itself.......... You can only have so good a strike rate no matter who you are...... Therefore......... thanks and good luck |
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yes agree about the strike rates, there was some very poor selections at the start of the thread at those prices 5/2 or under, they have
improved but unfortunately they have still been getting beat, know its impossible to win at those lower prices, when i done my notebooks there was very few winners at 5/2 and under, but there was always a steady stream of runners at those prices, and that was around 3000 races. things will improve, just takes time. im sure most people were not following lot of the lower prices, so no harm done. |
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well ABSOLUTE BLAST romped home, like i said the lower price selections have been improving and they will only get better, there will be lot
less of them i hope |
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missed out on a good winner yesterday SERENADE THE STARS, was watching out for this horse, missed the price so didnt put it up on here,
but i did put it on the bloodstock forum 2 hours before the race. 3.10 class 5 maiden 12f lingfield tomoro i know these unlucky losers LTO can be very costly to follow next timeout. ARDAMIR 78 RPR didnt get a clear run LTO in class 4 handicap, was previously beaten 3 1/4 lengths by NATURAL SCENERY RPR 95 giving it 7lbs, that race was a new juvenile course record, was also beaten over C/D by PETITE JACK by 4 lengths giving it 7lbs, that horse is now rated RPR 90. so ARDAMIR looks to be on a good mark and should run a big race. possible danger could be ENMESHING beaten 2 1/4 lengths over 9.5f in a good race time wise, couple of winners already come out of that race. didnt get a clear run in that race and by mastercraftsman could appreciate this step up in trip. ARDAMIR forecast price 9/4 will see what prices are like later |