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(UK ONLY) ALL WEATHER FORM PICKS 2016/17

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Replies: 467
By:
dj876
When: 20 Jan 17 12:07
Are you missing out by not putting it up on the forum? Slightly more important that you backed it

Are you backing these horses or is this just a paper trailing theoretical exercise at overnight prices?

Who do you find as the five most trustworthy trainers on the AW circuit?
By:
roadrunner46
When: 20 Jan 17 12:37
im not going to back something at evens, when it was available at 9/4 the night before, that makes no sense to me. dont really know
the most trustworthy trainers on the AW circuit, its not something i have a good knowledge about, ive always concentrated on the horses.
lot of the races where something dodgy is happening, i tend to avoid those type of races, and look for races were the form is going to hold up.
think david evans is very good trainer on the AW.
By:
dj876
When: 20 Jan 17 12:44
Nice chap alright David Evans.

Are you backing any of the horses or is it just a theoretical exercise?

I am glad to hear that you have started watching a few races, on the AW it's critical that you know the characters involved but if you did you wouldn't back on it.

Is Gigilo grooming you? He seems to have the game by the kahunas.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 20 Jan 17 12:46
Laugh Giggsy the groomer...lol
By:
roadrunner46
When: 20 Jan 17 12:56
thegiggilo has been gambling for 20 years and he knows all the angles, knows all the trainers, knows all the prices. if you want to increase
your knowledge about gambling, you find someone who knows what they are talking about and can teach you angles they use. ive only been learning
for the last 8 years, and in that time havent really taken it too serious, so that has slowed down my learning. wont be long before i put all
the pieces together and will end up doing most of my betting on betfair, apart from the multiples will do them with the books.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 20 Jan 17 16:05
ARDAMIR 5/6 paddy power 10/11 sportsbook, going to leave it now at that price, back next week
By:
thegiggilo
When: 20 Jan 17 18:42
dj876 20 Jan 17 12:44  



Nice chap alright David Evans.

Are you backing any of the horses or is it just a theoretical exercise?

I am glad to hear that you have started watching a few races, on the AW it's critical that you know the characters involved but if you did you wouldn't back on it.

Is Gigilo grooming you? He seems to have the game by the kahunas!!

Correct by the kahunas,as most on here already know including pecker..
By:
thegiggilo
When: 20 Jan 17 18:53
Good luck roadrunner,start looking at the lower grade stuff that's where all the ricks are and you can still use speedfigures the books are clueless!!
By:
peckerdunne
When: 20 Jan 17 22:25
Yes Giggsy, i was laughing at his terminology..
By:
peckerdunne
When: 20 Jan 17 22:29
Whats the best way to acquire and use speed figures.

Obviously i know what they are but i mean trusting them/pitfalls etc....Gigsy..cheers..
By:
thegiggilo
When: 20 Jan 17 23:08
Just getting used to the times over distances at most aw tracks,southwell is by far the most reliable as always go decent pace and wolves not far behind,i used to use sectionals 10 years ago but spent too much time doing them lots of aw racing now and wouldn't be any better off for doing them.Once you get used to the times produced at the tracks you only have to see a result that catches the eye,thats why I reply on this thread as I can see roadrunner is getting a good overall view of times in general in the way he's using them.
What he wants to do is bomb out a lot of the better class races and get involved with races and ratings say from 60-80 and looking at maidens etc the times of horses around wolves and swell with back class there is always lots of value,i know why he does the better class races as they are very easy to break down the problem is there is little in the way of value.The value as mentioned on here previously,is invariably away from the front of the market although books make huge mistakes in maidens on some shorter ones,they obviously have no idea to price up and don't take times into account ,it's all to do with devoting all your time to it.The pitfalls are just making sure the tracks aren't exceptionally fast on specific days alreadty this season the mile track record has gone at lingfoeld but although my target has franked the form twice since I still think the time was slightly misleading to follow over a cliff.
There was an example of fantastic speedfigure I put on talking horses site,a 1m2f race at lingfield was fastest 2yr old maiden I have ever seen 2m3.30 was only around .40 slower than van huysen on same card won off 77 carrying 11 pound more the 2yr olds won again since as well now rated 86,yet winners of the 2yr old maiden only been rated 73 and runner up was rated 74.Since that run have backed the 3rd at 6/1 nassem looks like a 90+ horse and the second at 5/4 went off 4/9,the handicappers been miles out with the ratings of that race the first 4 were thrown in and still potentially are.If you want to ask me anything just send me a pm on here or talking horses fella.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 20 Jan 17 23:10
That should say van huysen carried 11pound less than the 2yr olds..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 21 Jan 17 10:49
i see hugh taylor has put up my danger in the 3.10 ENMESHING at 14/1, now only 7/1 again, he said it was overpriced, he wasnt wrong.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 21 Jan 17 13:18
Thanks Giggsy, you're a good man.

I really appreciate that.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 21 Jan 17 15:30
hes good that hugh taylorLaugh what a cracking day for the AW punters, some superb racing on offer today for the form students.
should check the trainers records over certain distances, hugh taylor he didnt miss that in his write up.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 21 Jan 17 16:24
thanks for the positive comments thegiggilo, im trying my best to figure out the times of the races, next year will be looking at more and more
races, suppose with the flat racing 2017, will have to look at more races and put up some doubles and trebles. just got to build up a decent betting
bank for trading on betfair, because im not going to be able to open 100's of betting accounts, that is not a possibility for me. thankfully all
my betting accounts at the moment are mug accounts, hope they stay that way until im ready to hit them bookies for x 10.000's

some good racing at newcastle tonight few races have caught my eye, will be watching with interest.
By:
mrcombustible
When: 21 Jan 17 21:47
Pinzolo set a new track record today
By:
roadrunner46
When: 21 Jan 17 22:09
PINZOLO broke his own track recordWink
By:
thegiggilo
When: 21 Jan 17 23:36
Track record was held by burcan,that's twice this season its been broken so wouldn't read anything into that and the mile records gone there,track must be the fastest its ever been..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 22 Jan 17 00:35
good one didnt know BURCAN held the record, wish i had a look at the first race at lingfield today the 12.50, there was lot of question marks
around the first 3 in the betting chevallier and ice royal(NR) where both selections on this thread and bayres road was having its 3rd run in 7 days
the winner francos secret had beaten my target over C/D and was a specialist at the track, that would of given it the edge IMO over dutiful son
who had also beaten my target, even though they had both beaten it carrying different weights. i see poppy in the wind came good again, thought
it was going to be dynamo walt or poppy in the wind. marquee club had a good pull at the weights 4lbs for 1/2 length beating by golden opportunity,
with only 2.5 lbs per length at 6f, was entitled to run the fav very close, yet the prices were 11/10 fav and 10/1 the winner although was well backed into 6/1. they opened up 7/4 and 3/1.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 22 Jan 17 02:17
Havn't had a bet for days,unless I see real standout value it's just not worth doing anything I could've had 8 bets today one winner so did the right thing and same yesterday,it's all about the prices not just picking winners.I probably won't bet Monday either,done the card which is dire pretty uncompetitve stuff,so no value no bets and I will continue to not bet till the day comes when there maybe 7/8 bets.It has to happen eventually,doubt I will be betting on the turf this season due to ill health,maybe follow the 2yr olds but that will be it..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 25 Jan 17 15:12
7.00 class 4 20.5f wolves tomoro

looking at this race from the perspective of the weights the horses are carrying, leaves me with two horses who should have improved chances
for the win in this race, ALDRETH winner LTO in class 4 16f chelmsford off 75, has lots of form at 16f, lewis edmunds takes over the ride
and claims 7lbs, so effectively running off 70 in this race. CHARISMATIC MAN just denied LTO in class 4 over 16f by ALFREDO who was on a hot streak
of wins. has gone up 4lbs for that run, with claimer on board taking off 5lbs, now races 1lb lower, picked this LTO on the thread and im going to
give it another chance. the trainer has very good record with 4yos on AW over 13f 9/18 50% = 33.70+

CHARISMATIC MAN 5/2 forecast price
By:
roadrunner46
When: 25 Jan 17 16:29
CHARISMATIC MAN 13/8 paddy power going to leave it at that price (more than likely will go off around 1/1 IMO)
By:
roadrunner46
When: 26 Jan 17 14:45
3.40 class 5 10f lingfield

OCEAN DRIVE well bred sea the stars filly (dam rated 110) sea the stars has 24% on the AW, has already won over C/D maiden class 5
time was nothing special, trainer w haggas is 29% for 3yos and 24% at 9/10f and WH has had a few winners last few days. has lot of positives this horse. the danger on paper is EMENEM a very likable horse, who is bred to improve at this longer trip by sir percy and darshaan on the damside, the form of its last win 8.5f class 3 has been boosted with 3 winners coming out of that race, and it will have an experience edge over the likely fav ocean drive.

OCEAN DRIVE 6/4 forecast price will what the prices are like
By:
roadrunner46
When: 26 Jan 17 17:22
OCEAN DRIVE 6/5 paddy power im going to leave that now

6.45 newcastle 5f class 4 APROVADO (8.13) won LTO over C/D 0.46 slower than standard, that was exactly the same time as RICH AGAIN (8.12) winning on the same day, has to overcome a 119 day absence. there are a few in this race with good recent course form, looks very competitive on paper, going
to take a chance at the prices, could open at a bigger price with the other books.


APROVADO 8/1 paddy power

0.50 WIN
By:
roadrunner46
When: 26 Jan 17 19:54
was right CHARISMATIC MAN price was too low at 13/8 was 15/8 with corals for 4 mins, a typical overbet goes off 8/11, as i said in the write up
i was looking at this from the weights perspective, couldnt make a case for it on form, because there were other horses with better form in the book
and so proved the case, thought the winner had drifted to a crazy price in hindsight, with decent placed form in higher grade races.

CHARISMATIC MAN matched IR 1.31 for around 2k
By:
dj876
When: 26 Jan 17 21:22
He must have been called after you beep beep

You're educating me everyday, I used to think there was a correlation between the weights and the form.

I am not sure how something is a bet at the weights but not in the form book? (in a handicap)
By:
roadrunner46
When: 26 Jan 17 21:40
cotton club the winner rated 82 weight 9.12, charismatic man rated 82 weight 9.00, like i said looked a bet at the weights, the winner had much
better form in the book, and only had the two runs since coming back from a long lay off, which i failed to notice at the time. its good thing
i dont read form like youCool missed another great winner today FEIRY SPICE 30 BFSP,  whats amazing is the racing post guy picked it out for the
win today, mentioned that horse on this thread as one to look out for.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 27 Jan 17 14:58
2.25 lingfield 8f class 3 tomoro

somethingthrilling dont think that was suited by the slow pace of the race LTO, a C/D winner whos lightly raced and still has lot of promise going forward, supersta and bold prediction have been running well in better races.

KINGSTON KURRAJONG was coming back from 6 month lay off and run very well, only beaten 1 1/4 lengths in a class 2 over C/D, trainer has decent stats at the track, just had the one race on the AW and is lightly raced.

CAPTAIN CAT only had the three runs for tony carrol, much improved performance LTO beaten 2 3/4 lengths in the same race as KK ^ above
easily the best horse in the race and an AW championship miler in 2014 race was run in a fast time 0.49, now racing off 97 with a claimer
taking off an extra 3lbs.


KINGSTON KURRAJONG 8/1 forecast price
CAPTAIN CAT 16/1 forecast price

looking to split the stakes in this race, will wait and see what prices are like later
By:
roadrunner46
When: 27 Jan 17 15:49
another OVERBET bustedWinkLaugh OCEAN DRIVE 8/11 racing post forecast had that as 13/8 shot, did say EMENEM was a likable sort,

1st EMENEM 7/2 simon dow hes a decent trainer on the AW, its shame he hasnt got many horses in training
2ND OCEAN DRIVE 8/11
By:
roadrunner46
When: 27 Jan 17 16:24
2.25 lingfield 8f class 3 tomoro

KINGSTON KURRAJONG 15/2 0.50 WIN paddy power

CAPTAIN CAT 22/1 0.50 WIN paddy power
By:
roadrunner46
When: 27 Jan 17 19:04
APROVADO finished unplaced 8/1 out to 17/2 jockey whipping the horse at the 2f pole, the horse wasnt fit today, no point whipping the hell out
of it. good to see the times working out in that raceWink, with RICH AGAIN swooping late to land the win.

BANK 0.80 minus
By:
thegiggilo
When: 28 Jan 17 02:28
Someone wants to stick a bomb under that track,complete wsste of time..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 28 Jan 17 14:56
CAPTAIN CAT went as low as 5.20 IR for peanuts and KINGSTON KURRAJONG was well backed and then drifted badly, both finished unplaced.

CAPTAIN CAT 25/1 in places 22/1 into 20/1

KINGSTON KURRAJONG 8/1 in places 15/2 into 7/1


BANK 1.80 minus hopefully in february things will improve, might have to put up a few doubles next month
By:
thegiggilo
When: 29 Jan 17 03:03
You're exactly where I said you would be betting at those prices,at least you avoided those ridiculously short ones that got stuffed,betting lower grade races is where all the skill and value is that's the way to go although you have a lot of work if going onto doing the swell form and doing the times etc.But one things for sure that's where all the value is and reliable speedfigures,plus wolves as well that's a 2yr project to leastn it all but worth it..
By:
thegiggilo
When: 09 Feb 17 01:14
Been some desperate cards last 2 weeks fella,you not finding anything..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 09 Feb 17 19:10
theres been a few winners that i mentioned on here after they won, DUTCH GOLDEN AGE 7/2 FRANCOS SECRET 8/1 MARQUEE CLUB 11/2 SERENADE THE STARS 8/11, ive been distracted the last 2 weeks, next week will start doing the form again, there has been few good ones win like ASHADIHAN yesterday
with group 1 form running in a class 2 race. LANCELOT DU LAC went off a crazy price the other day. and the race HOT BEAT won has produced another
3 winners 9/1 / 5/2 /4/1, still been keeping an eye on the results.

will have to put the work in next week and until the end of the AW season if im going to make the 50 points target and make some money.

i see SUTTER COUNTY beaten again today, was right about that horse looking very exposed after its last run.

possible will have a look at saturdays cards, early tomoro, might find something.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 09 Feb 17 20:25
I've had 3 bets in 2 weeks two non triers,can't find any bets cards are garbage no decent speedfigures useless..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 10 Feb 17 15:40
4.50 lingfield 12f class 4 tomoro

AFONSO DE SOUSA some good placed efforts in class 2 races over 10f in 2016 racing off 102, obviously a difficult horse to win with, hasnt won
for around 21 races, now racing off 87 and a good placed effort LTO over C/D in a class 3 race, trainer has a good record at 11/12f races 18%.

SILVER QUAY has beaten royal marskell easily in the past by 5 lengths over C/D in a class 3 race and rates the main danger, aussie andre
looks like the dark horse in the race, coming back from a 15 month break LTO, and has some potential going forward.

AFONSO DE SOUSA 11/4 forecast price will see what the prices are like very soon
By:
roadrunner46
When: 10 Feb 17 16:44
AFONSO DE SOUSA 3/1 ladbrokes 11/4 william hills

AFONSO DE SOUSA

1 POINT WIN
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