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roadrunner46
21 Nov 16 18:42
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Date Joined: 25 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 7,678 | Blogger: roadrunner46's blog
put a thread up in january 2016 of notebook runners on the irish forum, on 25 runs showed a profit of just over 50 points.
will not be picking any notebook selections on this thread, just studying the form and comparing profiles and hopefully find a few winners.
going to be doing the form as soon as the declarations are out ( 3 days in advance), so will put up selections as soon as the early prices are up.

short term goal is around 20 points profit by december 31st 2016.

long term goal is around 50 points profit by the start of the flat season 2017

ive got a selection for wednesday, will post tomoroWink

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Replies: 467
By:
roadrunner46
When: 22 Nov 16 15:15
STAR STORM 6.55 kempton 7/2 with betfair sportsbook (only one priced up at moment)

good 2nd LTO to western hymn beaten 1/2 length in a 12f listed race at kempton

sire is see the stars ( has 24% strike rate on AW ) ( 42% at 11/12f races)

trainer james fanshawe has 30% strike rate for 4yo at kempton + 45.83 profit

only horse in the race to have won at group level on the flat (group 3 win)

time of its last race at kempton was only just 0.28 slow of standard


1 POINT WIN

goodluck
By:
roadrunner46
When: 22 Nov 16 16:29
STAR STORM 4/1 bet653Wink
By:
roadrunner46
When: 22 Nov 16 17:03
corals now going 9/2 STAR STORM
By:
elvissss
When: 23 Nov 16 13:24
Fair play u got the price

Gl
By:
roadrunner46
When: 23 Nov 16 16:50
OXFORD BLU 4.55 chelmsford 13/8 bet635 6/4 betfair sports book

an easy 3 length winner LTO at newcastle over 10f class 6

the trainer won the same race at chelmsford last year, the other horses in the race are all stepping up in distance
so one or two of them could be open to improvement. reckon the selection has around 50/50% chance of following up that win
at the prices will take a chance on it hopefully will get well backed.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 23 Nov 16 17:38
skybet 13/8 william hills 13/8
By:
roadrunner46
When: 24 Nov 16 16:15
VOLUNTEER POINT 6.15 wolves 11/4 bet635 (only one priced up at the moment)

i make this a two horse race between volunteer point and squash is the main danger (its possible squash could go off fav 4/1 at moment)
volunteer point is a top handicapper on the AW including winning the AW championship fillies and mares condition stakes last year 93k.
has a very good turn of foot, but can also find problems during the race, usually has to be held up, only 7 runners in this race so
that should help. has had a 4 runs last two months so hoping should much fitter now.

1 POINT WIN

gl all
By:
roadrunner46
When: 24 Nov 16 17:05
STAR STORM 9/2 backed into 9/4 SP there was a slow pace in that race, finished unplaced

OXFORD BLU 13/8 drift told its own story out to 3/1 on betfair, SP 13/8 finished unplaced

off to a slow stat MINUS 2 POINTS keep the faithWink
By:
thegiggilo
When: 24 Nov 16 22:35
It's just warming up yet...
By:
peckerdunne
When: 25 Nov 16 14:36
Keep it up...nice thread..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 25 Nov 16 18:27
1ST VOLUNTEER POINT 11/4 backed into 15/8 a top handicapper on the AW Wink did say KEEP THE FAITHCool

BANK 0.75 PROFIT

will be back next week, hopefully find some bigger priced bets.
By:
neill d
When: 25 Nov 16 22:16

Nov 24, 2016 -- 4:35PM, thegiggilo wrote:


It's just warming up yet...


First ever father and son team on the Irish Forum and the thread is in profit. A momentous evening. Here's one of yours Cool

By:
roadrunner46
When: 26 Nov 16 22:27
keep your snide comments off this thread neil d, thegiggilo is a professional gambler who has made a fortune from gambling,
i have learnt more from thegiggilo then all the knowledge and info posted on racing forums added up together, someone who
has actually proven his methods work, knows the formbook inside out and understands the markets like no one else.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 27 Nov 16 16:26
TEGARA 3.50 newcastle betfair sportsbook 5/4 11/10 bet635

the horse has a very good damside (rated 104 on flat) superb AW pedigree by HARDSPUN 54% at 7/9f
trainer is 5/10 at newcastle for 3yo 50% / jockey is 3/7 at newcastle 43%
horse has obviously had problems with just the 3 runs so far, coming back from a long lay off 96 days.
the form of its last win hasnt really worked out well with no horses having won since.

will take a chance on it at the prices (could be a drifter this one)

1 POINT WIN

gl all
By:
luckyme
When: 27 Nov 16 18:05
Nice thread Roadie, at least we know which horse we are on before the race and that is great, will watch with interest,
good luck
By:
mrcombustible
When: 27 Nov 16 18:17
Roadrunner thanks for starting this thread.

As regards Hard Spun I would be a bit concerned backing one of his on Tapeta @ 5/4

The sample size is not large enough to have a strong opinion and not safe statistically but Tapeta is not looking to be his favourite surface

He is 0/22 with 7 placing. Expected wins 2.41 and archie 2.71

He is 0/6 when  first 3 in the betting and 0/1 when favourite.

On fibresand he is 8/32 ae 1.15 and polytrack 25/163 ae.85

Good luck tomorrow
By:
roadrunner46
When: 28 Nov 16 16:41
good post mrcombustible, thanks for the replys

LINGANNO FELICE 2.20 newcastle 5/1 betfair sportsbook

good 2nd LTO beaten 2 lengths over C/D class 4 the form of that race working out well with the winner now rated 91 from 84
and the 3rd in the race has since won on the AW. now drops into class 5. there are one or two in with a chance in this race.

1 POINT WIN

TEGARA 5/4 into 11/10 SP finished unplaced and the shocking thing is went 1.36 IR and never looked like winning

BANK MINUS 0.25
By:
roadrunner46
When: 28 Nov 16 16:55
LINGANNO FELICE 5/1 bet635 ( ladborkes are really short and are going 11/4)
By:
roadrunner46
When: 29 Nov 16 16:20
MEMORIES GALORE 4.55 kempton 7/1 bet635 (only one priced at moment)
has been running in higher grade races, low draws are favoured at kempton over 5f, 3 draw hasnt been very successfull (drawn 3)
dropped a few pounds in the weights hopefully get a good position and i think 5f might be its best distance.
beaten by orions bow 91 RPR 2 lengths and magnus maximus 1 1/4 lengths 89 RPR, they are both rated 105. the horse has potential.

LINGANNO FELICE 5/1 into 4/1 finished 3rd went 3.10 IR

BANK MINUS 1.25
By:
roadrunner46
When: 29 Nov 16 16:57
MEMORIES GALORE 7/1 bet viktor 7/1 william hills
By:
pa lapsy
When: 30 Nov 16 17:02
Easy 7/4 winner, fair play as with a nice bit of reasoning as well.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 30 Nov 16 17:04
i think this one deserves a bigLaugh see hugh taylor gave a good write up for it, just found his column for the first time yesterday

KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

WHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH



7/1 into 15/8
By:
pa lapsy
When: 30 Nov 16 17:05
Laugh
By:
roadrunner46
When: 30 Nov 16 17:06
back in business now, nothing for tomoro, just too many runners in the races at chelmsford to bother trying find a winner there.

BANK 5.75

hope you all made plenty on thatWink
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Nov 16 17:47
well done fella........
By:
mrcombustible
When: 30 Nov 16 18:00
Well done roadrunner, nice price when you posted
By:
Ozymandius
When: 30 Nov 16 18:21
Proper racing thread.....includes a running tally (should be obligatory)

Well done RR, you nutter.  Beep, beep!
By:
mincer11
When: 30 Nov 16 19:20
Roadrunner, I will give you a ring later .
By:
thegiggilo
When: 30 Nov 16 19:55
Neil d texted he said well done roadrunner..Shocked
By:
Ozymandius
When: 30 Nov 16 20:35
Call me please, RR, have lost your number.
By:
mincer11
When: 30 Nov 16 21:30
Roadrunner, I sent you a PM
By:
neill d
When: 30 Nov 16 22:18
Oh yeah, well done. Thought you didn't want me to post on the thread, only reason I didn't acknowledge the 7/1 winner. By all means, well done. Hope it continues for you.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 01 Dec 16 00:13
Just send all cheques to me thanks..Silly
By:
Ozymandius
When: 01 Dec 16 09:55
Anything for today, RR?

geez...even thegigilo is sucking on your teat now! Self-confessed "Master" becomes eager pupil, hovering for crumbs from the table.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 01 Dec 16 10:35
I will always be the master grasshopper...
By:
dj876
When: 01 Dec 16 10:52
Master tin roofer more like it.

He reminds me of that ATR substitute that used to be flogging his "services" on here.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 01 Dec 16 11:02
roadrunner46 26 Nov 16 22:27  



keep your snide comments off this thread neil d, thegiggilo is a professional gambler who has made a fortune from gambling,
i have learnt more from thegiggilo then all the knowledge and info posted on racing forums added up together, someone who
has actually proven his methods work, knows the formbook inside out and understands the markets like no one else...
By:
Ozymandius
When: 01 Dec 16 11:07
A sycophantic, glowing review from RR about your alleged gambling prowess has about as much credibility as, say, Wonky eulogising about Ulysses.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 01 Dec 16 23:14
Is that a simile.
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