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(UK ONLY) ALL WEATHER FORM PICKS 2016/17

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Replies: 467
By:
roadrunner46
When: 02 Dec 16 17:07
BEAUDEN BARRETT 5.15 wolves 11/4 bet 635 (only one priced at moment) havent had much luck picking these LTO winners so far on the thread
maybe that will change tomoro.

stepping up in distance to 7f, finished its race off well LTO over 6f full of running, there one or two dangers in the race.
capolavaro has been running well and magic city looks a winner in waiting, has been dropping in the weights rapidly.

1 POINT WIN

BANK 5.40 profit ( revised after rule 4 )

will be watching the 7.15 at wolves with interest tomoro. looks a good race on paper
By:
roadrunner46
When: 02 Dec 16 17:11
BEAUDEN BARRETT 4/1 betfair sportsbook
By:
roadrunner46
When: 02 Dec 16 17:34
BEAUDEN BARRETT 7/2 skybet
By:
roadrunner46
When: 04 Dec 16 16:58
PRIMROSE VALLEY 5/2 bet635 ( only one priced at moment)

very good sprinter last year winning off off 98 twice and has regressed now racing off 84, CD winner wasnt too far off
in its last couple of races. has beaten some good horses who are still rated in 100 RPR. loveatfirstsight in the same
race that should be winning very soon.

BEAUDEN BARRETT 7/2 out to 7/1 SP ( drifted to 15/1 on betfair) finished 2nd
and the three horses i mentioned in my form guide finished 1-2-3 for the tricast

BANK 4.40 profit

1 POINT WIN
By:
roadrunner46
When: 04 Dec 16 17:06
PRIMROSE VALLEY 3/1 betfair sportsbook / 11/4 paddy power
By:
roadrunner46
When: 05 Dec 16 16:45
MARSHALL AID 1.20 southwell 5/1 betfair sports book / william hill 5/1 going to take a chance on this horse, hopefully might be
able to run down the fav in the last furlong, has had a couple of decent placed efforts at 13.5 and 14.f. getting 7 pounds in
weight form the fav, only negative hasnt raced on the surface.

PRIMROSE VALLEY 5/2 into 6/4 SP placed 3rd just didnt have the sparkle to finish off the race and get the win.

BANK 3.40 profit

1 POINT WIN
By:
roadrunner46
When: 06 Dec 16 16:09
CAROLINEA 12.05 lingfield 5/1 william hills (only one priced up at moment) quickened up nicely to LTO to win over C/D, time of the race was good just 1.00 outside standard, has been in good winning form 3 wins form last 6 races, there are a couple of unexposed runners and forceful appeal
has very good form at the track.

MARSHALL AID 5/1 drifted to 9/1 ran like a donkey, the fav was too good, was going to put that one up for the win ah well!

BANK 2.40 profit
By:
roadrunner46
When: 06 Dec 16 16:12
that post difficult to read, what  i said was there are a couple of unexposed runners in the race.
and forceful appeal has some good strong form at the track (14/1 betfair sportsbook that wont last)
By:
roadrunner46
When: 06 Dec 16 16:13
CAROLINEA 12.05 lingfield

1 POINT WIN
By:
thegiggilo
When: 07 Dec 16 12:39
Wink
By:
roadrunner46
When: 07 Dec 16 13:00
CAROLINEA 5/1 into 9/2 SP placed 3rd decent enough run, rushed the write up last night, could of done a better job on the dangers
in the race, but to my credit i did mention forceful appeal had good STRONG form at the track and price 14/1Wink.

nothing tomoro at chelmsford

BANK 1.40 profit
By:
thegiggilo
When: 07 Dec 16 13:12
You not been reading talking horses recently,put it up last night at 8s and 10s lsst night non trier last week at chelmsfiord,thought you would've seen it..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 08 Dec 16 00:10
yes i have been reading your thread for last few months on a daily basis, but i have to confess i have never followed any of your tipsShocked
By:
thegiggilo
When: 08 Dec 16 01:25
ShockedAs you saw today close too a monster touch,are you actually betting now or just looking at the form..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 08 Dec 16 01:43
you know what its like, i like to pick my own winners and losers, must say you was a bit blase about emenems chances todayShocked
just warming up at moment, its long AW season, suppose the amounts your getting on would of been a monster touch for you, if didnt
rush the right up last night would of been another tricast up for grabs in that race, although wouldnt of played it myself.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 08 Dec 16 02:25
Don't understand what you mean saying I was blasé about emenems chances,on speedfigures it stood out a mile for a 2year old nursery was a very good time for grade,won easily as well it almost looked to good to be true off that mark.The 3rd should be the next one to follow out of that race as every horse in that race will now be rated over 70..
Forget betting horses at the front end of the market they are rarely value,probably 10% of all my bets would be based around shorter prices,it's just not possioble to bet at those prices and for them to be value,books mistakes are invariably at far bigger prices..
By:
thegiggilo
When: 08 Dec 16 02:25
Don't understand what you mean saying I was blasé about emenems chances,on speedfigures it stood out a mile for a 2year old nursery was a very good time for grade,won easily as well it almost looked to good to be true off that mark.The 3rd should be the next one to follow out of that race as every horse in that race will now be rated over 70..
Forget betting horses at the front end of the market they are rarely value,probably 10% of all my bets would be based around shorter prices,it's just not possioble to bet at those prices and for them to be value,books mistakes are invariably at far bigger prices..
By:
roadrunner46
When: 08 Dec 16 16:30
DAZACAM 4.15 newcastle 10/3 bet635 decent enough 5f winner LTO, had raced a few times over 6f, seems that 5f is the horses right distance,
has already beaten a few of these LTO, high draws are favourable at newcastle with dazacam drawn 10 and could have the race run to suit,
SNUGGY could be the danger has 6 lbs pull in the weights and was coming back form a two month lay off LTO. apart from that always possible
something else could find dramatic improvement.

1 POINT WIN
By:
peckerdunne
When: 08 Dec 16 16:34
Forget betting horses at the front end of the market they are rarely value,probably 10% of all my bets would be based around shorter prices,it's just not possioble to bet at those prices and for them to be value,books mistakes are invariably at far bigger prices..

That's the truth of the matter............
By:
roadrunner46
When: 08 Dec 16 17:37
we know thats the truth of the matter thanks for reiterating the pointWink QUAFFAAL opened up 9/2 5/1 last night at the front of the market, plenty available to lay at 7/2, would you say there was value in that price last night when drifted 11/2 with books and 6/1 on betfair?
By:
roadrunner46
When: 08 Dec 16 23:23
calling thegiggilo, theres a really good sprint race on at 2.00 newcastle class 3, ive narrowed the potential winners down to BOSHAM and MEMORIES GALORE, very difficult to split them on form for me, do you have any views on the race? obviously they will no doubt be short in the betting.
any help would be most appreciated (TIA) i know bosham likes to lead its races and that could be an advantage and memories galore finishing fast
By:
thegiggilo
When: 09 Dec 16 01:36
Memories galore will be around 9/4 5/2 tops,especially with the orions bow form there won't be a betting race for me,10 pound turnaround with memories galore from the Newcastle race shouldn't be enough but as you mentioned there's a possibility of soft lead with the low draws and no pace on nearside with the fav.I don't bet anything short at Newcastle,infact I try and avoid the track unless I see some bigger prices..Mappin times the most interesting horse in the race as will be among the lows and is off lowest mark since april 2014 when winning off 85,off 83 tomorrow...
By:
roadrunner46
When: 09 Dec 16 09:35
i see hugh taylor has put up DAZACAM at 9/4, you can find hugh taylors column on ATR website, his writes up well written in comparison with mine.Laugh
By:
padlock
When: 09 Dec 16 09:55
I cannot locate a 2.00pm sprint race at Newcastle ? Confused
By:
roadrunner46
When: 09 Dec 16 10:48
im looking at the form two days in advance, that race is on saturday, so people can get there bets on early at best prices
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 09 Dec 16 12:03
GL
By:
neill d
When: 09 Dec 16 12:41
Fair play roadrunner, this is an excellent thread with a running p+l; will not interfere in it any further. You seem to have a sound MO and are very organised. Giving yourself every chance to make a few quid.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 09 Dec 16 16:24
KKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

WWWWWWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHH

10/30 into 6/4 1ST DAZACAM 2 length winner easy

just trying to study one race at moment and put the effort in, missed that IM AM NOT HERE (that had top class recent form and
for the excellent trainer b ellison).

hope you all made plentyWink
By:
roadrunner46
When: 09 Dec 16 17:13
was going to select MEMORIES GALORE 2.00 newcastle 11/4 with corals ( only one priced at moment) just going to leave it now,
wouldnt want to put anyone off backing the horse, becuase it was very impressive LTO.

take a break for the weekend, comeback stronger next week, and a little wiser i hope

TOTALS SO FAR

BANK 4.70 profit strike rate 27% (3/11)
By:
peckerdunne
When: 10 Dec 16 23:05
WD
By:
roadrunner46
When: 13 Dec 16 16:02
SANA SOUCI BAY 11.40 lingfield done well LTO form a wide draw given a good ride by the apprentice finishing fast on the inside rail
she takes off 7lbs in weight and that could make the difference, has a far superior top speed in the race and could be suited by the
small field, obviuos danger is golden necter already a winner at 8f, but the time of that race was slower by 1.21 then the other maiden
on the card.

7/4 bet 635

1 POINT WIN
By:
roadrunner46
When: 13 Dec 16 16:10
HACKNEY ROAD 7.10 kempton raced a bit keen early on, then settled behind the leaders and breezed through to win by 2 1/4 lengths
more than likely didnt beat much in that race, settled the race very quickly, BE ROYALE has been running very well and looks the main
danger, they are both drawn low which is favourable at kemton.

11/4 bet 635 ( only one priced at moment)

1 POINT WIN
By:
Ozymandius
When: 14 Dec 16 11:23
Kudos for keeping record and publicising it RR.

BANK 4.70 profit strike rate 27% (3/11)


Personally I would have thought that ROI % was a more meaningful statistic that either 'Points + or -' or Strike Rate'.

The points method of measurement does seems traditional and prevalent within gambling circles.  However, being, say 10 points ahead having gambled 100 points in total is rather different to being 10 points ahead having gambled 1000 points in total. (ROI 10% vs ROI 1%).

Perhaps I am mistaken or others see it differently?  I vaguely remember raising this point before, not sure where we got to.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Dec 16 16:08
ALKHOR 6.25 chelmsford 9/2 betfair sportsbook ( only one priced at the moment)
very lightly raced horse with just the 5 runs, im hoping this one still has some scope to improve, it will need to get the win here,
FLORENCIO is a C/D winner and holds the juvenile course record at 6f, has changed yards and could be the danger.

1 POINT WIN
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Dec 16 17:28
ALKHOR 9/2 paddy power, they are already shortening up FLORENCIO
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Dec 16 19:25
KKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMM

WHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHH

breezed through again did it wink:]

HACKNEY ROAD 1ST 11/4 into 2/1

SANS SOUCI BAY finished unplaced, ( did the form all wrong in that race, should of been wise to the fact MJ always runs
his horses of the wrong trips to start them off, plus DARSHAANS broodmares of kodiac kahn have won nearly 20 million

BANK 7.45 profit getting there slowlyWink
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Dec 16 19:26
whoops mistake

BANK 6.45 profit
By:
roadrunner46
When: 16 Dec 16 16:25
BARYE 12.15 lingfield won this race last year, good run LTO beaten 1 1/4 lengths over 14f class 2, raced in the back of the field
all way around and made up lot of ground, the winner had the run of the race that day and made all, has won off 98 and races off
101 tomoro, the danger looks PINZOLO has won off 108 and races off 97 now, so looks well handicapped on best form.


BARYE is 5/2 betfair sportsbook (only one priced at moment)

1 POINT WIN

ALKHOR 9/2 into 7/2 SP drifted badly on betfair to around 11/2 (was matched as low as 2.10 IR never looked like winning)

BANK 5.45 profit
By:
roadrunner46
When: 16 Dec 16 16:39
BARYE 5/2 paddy power
By:
roadrunner46
When: 16 Dec 16 17:03
BARYE 11/4 bet 635
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