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Constitution Hill - balloted out?
Constitution Hill - balloted out?
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Replies: 474
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Patsy P were the 1ST up with prices,didn't see Square Necker @ 11/1.
They originally went 4/6 C.Hill. When they pushed out to 11/10 Square Necker was 7/4. |
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I’m not having a bet in the race, I’m definitely going to watch it and I definitely want Constitution Hill to win
The horse that’s vying for favourite may not be 100% fit today, as in they shoul also looking forward to the spring/summer flat season with him (if he’s potentially as good as some folk seem to be thinking) Conversely IF it’s really true that HENDERSON is still considering the Champion Hurdle he has to have his horse close on full fitness now, not quite 100% but pretty darn close Unless I’ve missed it I’ve not seen anyone debating how the race will be run, the tactics of the fancied ones. All the best (I won’t be there because it’ll be full of lefty students, ones that can’t hold their drink, and the sort of under 35 year olds that wear shoes without socks on even in the winter) |
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from the RP 5 days ago...
SBK Road To Cheltenham Novice Stakes (7.30 Southwell, Friday) Paddy Power: 4-6 Constitution Hill, 5-2 Square Necker, 4 Daddy Long Legs, 13-2 Jupiter Ammon, Tripoli Flyer, 10 Grazeon Sunshine, 12 Gambino, 14 Minella Rescue, Roadlesstravelled, Summer Appeal, 16 Don Simon, Noble Way, 20 bar. |
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priced up to 230%+ @ the 5 day stage
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Likewise hope he wins ,as any genuine fans of the sport will do. However if he does i cant see them running in Champion Hurdle as they then have a new career ahead without the fear/danger and potential backlash going forward. If he gets beat they have also got a out of not running in CH.
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Quite an interesting quirk of the weights I thought. About 9 months ago DLL tried to give a group 1 horse 1 stone 2 pounds. Obviously that was wfa scenario, but today SN is giving DLL 5 lbs due to winning penalty. Obviously also different horses lol but it's quite early for a 4yo. ie if Carmers hadn't have ran again and it was entered today would be 21 lbs turnaround.
Basically imv it makes it a very tough ask for the jolly at the weights. Pretty interesting Mullins is persisting with DLL on the flat, maybe a big turf target in mind. And he finished lame in Bal so maybe capable of better. |
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if you bet in this you're a degen..way too menni imponderables re cons hill.
do i want cons hill to win? yes as ive stated,imo square necker is a 100+ horse with plenty improvement to come,so even getting 5lb cons is gona have to run to 95..at 9yr old im not sure. square necker at 1/5 1st 4 looks rock solid value. |
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I see it as a good betting race as CH is distorting the market, and there are a load of old boats that will still be running in the morning.
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it's quite early for a 4yo
 yes |
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market too switched on to be silly short CH
fav is correct fav being a decent flat horse against mostly jumpers but 7/4 is tight interesting race but no bet for me |
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jumpers bumper vibe novice event see if they harrowed it any different to normal
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Sure, DLL might be out for a spin for a mark. But it will want a decent mark aged 7 for the summer anyway. Moore should be busy from this draw to get ahead of the deadwood, and Mullins on the flat is not a negative. Advantage of already experienced on the flat and that was against unexposed 3yo's giving them a shitload of weight. I feel it's worth a shot they will be trying, at the price.
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An emphatic winner earmarked for The Arc in Oct or a damp squib hyped by the bookies stooges? I think it would be a disappointment all round. He's gone in the game.
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The Arc ffs.
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^
If anyone has gone in the game it’s imbecile123 Geldings can’t run in The Arc, you moron! |
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cons fav again now..acey is laying full bank
£0 |
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He'll win as he likes
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I see Mr Chamberlin is missing. Otherwise the hype would have been complete. I must prefer the girls. At least they do not get carried away and be more professional.
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What time is the race, plz?
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right after they've performed the reverse gelding operation
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Square Necker...3 runs, 3 different trainers.
Has this ever happened before? |
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If CH wins easily might become a stallion for both jumps and flat, with a hefty fee.
Probably similar fee to what they used to get for Galileo. Run in my opinion is to set him up as a top Stallion.  |
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Constitution Hill has loads against him
(1) 9 years old (the oldest in the field) (2) running on the flat for the first time (3) all-weather for the first time (4) shortest distance he has ever run 7/4 is a terrible price |
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has touched 5/2 v different ball game
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7/4 is a terrible price
big lay? in ricardo's gaffé? |
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Terrible price for a regular top class NH horse but CH is a once in lifetime horse. Time for people to post their lays
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Not many horses manage to run 4 times after winning the CH and record ff5f.
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ffsf was prob what henderson said too
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If the guys have access to bookmaker accounts think he's going to win then consider betting him over 1L or 2L....seen 11/4 & 7/2 for this. I believe he'll win comfortably if he does win. I really can't see him just scrambling home
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In-running should be interesting. If left and trailing long odds-on he ain't winning. If sitting pretty and travelling long odds-on bookies will want to take him on, I think.
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if necker runs to form and cons beats it comfortably im burning my form book.
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What use is a form book when looking at a horse that has never run on the flat never mind on an AW surface!
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he meant bra not form book
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wouldn't be offered but I'd prefer 6/1 he wins up to 2l
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Like I said, I think if he wins, he'll put a show on and win well.
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Would you bet any 9yo over 12f on the flat?
Only if the rest of the field is abysmal. |
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He's literally the ONLY horse I would
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since 2012 all 9yos in UK/ire flat races...
1383/18955 2.1% loss @ BSP before comm figs become +ve beyond 1m 6f hcaps far bigger -ve than non-hcaps |