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Start Of The Jumps

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By:
MJK
When: 29 Dec 24 11:19
Most of De Bromhead's running very solid races re ently, has some good chances today.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Dec 24 12:02
I did back Matuana as I thought that a 3yo would not take much getting fit. She was lucky with the fav falling but that could be the start of a Derham revival. Not all at once of course but Pyffo has some decent recent form so should also be fit enough in the 2.47. Suzuka my other bet today but not over jumps. I can never resist those colours.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 12:44
So why not make the case for the winner before the race?

Nice to start with a 'winner'. No match for the favourite in the end, but comfortably second best. Needs to jump a bit better, but should be up to winning one of these.

Argento Boy jumped very poorly, and blew out completely.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 13:07
Two nasty reverses for favourite backers in the first two at Leopardstown. Ballybrittas one to watch if/when they put a proper jock on board. Much too free.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Dec 24 13:09
I did mention the Derham news earlier and made a last minute decision to back and lay it. Only one to beat and that fell. I don't spend as much time as you studying form dd. My bets are often made after the off on impulse and typically laid off for 1 or 2 point profit. I have not even looked at any of the Irish racing today as I have family coming so only popping back to the TV every now and again. And Derham has just won again with a horse that had not run for ages which is why I ignored it. His flood has started today. Jus de Citron should improve a lot.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 14:50
I did give Jus De Citron a good mention, but the stable wasn't in form before today. I haven't seen the race. A lot of my preparation is in the head/intuition.

Loved that from Brighterdaysahead. It's great when a plan comes off. State Man might have been below his best, but he has had it too easy for too long. His overall record is a reflection of the lack of opposition. The Champion Hurdle is far from over as some people suggested after the Christmas Hurdle.

Big Stage was lucky not to be brought down twice, but clearly didn't stay. Dropped in trip he could be one for the new novices' handicap chase.

Very happy with 2/2 today so cashed out the William Butler bet.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 15:15
I flagged Sam Ewing up earlier in the season when he was just beaten on Shannon Royale. Brighterdaysahead has just produced by far her best performance with him on board. I don't believe in giving jocks sympathy votes, he should stay on board. Kennedy has been injured far too many times. It's hard to believe you can be unlucky that many times. The price for the Champion Hurdle looks too big to me. Surely Mullins will commit Lossiemouth as well. State Man looks washed up, and is much too short. He only won last year because they deliberately diverted Lossiemouth to allow him his one win. We have already seen that Constitution Hill is a weak stayer upped in trip. How much will he find in a strongly run race if they get him off the bridle? Given how fragile he is, and the strength of the opposition, he is now much too short.
By:
Hibore
When: 29 Dec 24 15:25
Agree Diff. I’m happy whichever race Brighter goes in now. Thinks she wins either whatever runs.
By:
penzance
When: 29 Dec 24 15:28
What's a weak stayer upped in trip got to do with a 2M race?
Constitution Hill will win what ever the pace of the race is.
They all turn up 100%,by far the best horse in the race.State
Man clearly not right today.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 15:43
You appear to be all over Constitution Hill as your previous comments after the Christmas Hurdle confirm. Personally, I think you are massively over confident.

Even at his best, which for me is open to debate, I think he is going to need to see his race out strongly. Both Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth will be better opponents than he has met before. I think it's worth pointing out the only time he has been upped in trip he hasn't looked at all impressive. I think that's worth pointing out, you don't, fine.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Dec 24 15:45
I only saw the last half mile of the Irish hurdle so no idea how State Man got 30 lengths behind by then. Didn't look as if Townend made more than nominal effort from the turn in. Winterfog finished about the right distance behind Brighterdaysahead so State Man ran 20lb below form.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Dec 24 15:46
Sir Gino would laugh at any of them but now he has run and won over fences there is no going back.
By:
penzance
When: 29 Dec 24 15:48
2 completely different types of race.Nothing to do with a 2M Chmpn Hdle.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 15:49
Townend made made minimal effort because the horse had nothing to offer. Do you honestly believe he just gave away finishing second?

Terrific effort from Maxxum over a trip short of his best. In a weak renewal worth a Stayers entry.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Dec 24 16:07
He may well have known that State Man had nothing to offer from half way but he showed no obvious effort to ask the horse to do anything in the part I saw. Like many Mullins horses as well as Nicholls and others, some of his older horses are running below form-apart from Galopin des Champs who ran the most impressive race I have seen from any horse since he won the Gold Cup in March. When looking at March, some of the weekend form could be very unhelpful.
penzance, Sir Gino won the Fighting Fifth in a canter and galloped all over CH in a private gallop. I happen to think he is the best we have seen in years.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 16:22
I think you need to see the whole race. They went quick and State Man couldn't live with it. Had he tried to chase he would have finished even further behind.

Farce of a race for the bumper. I made the right call on William Butler, but I wouldn't give up on him. He was clueless when they quickened, but he has finished better than anything bar the winner. Koktail Brut disappointing. Winner nicely bred with plenty of winners under both codes, and clearly has a good change of pace. Boost for Amen Kate. The bumper division has yet to sort itself out.
By:
1st time poster
When: 29 Dec 24 16:31
18 months ago constitution hill was winning the
gold cup 3 mile 2
ascot gold cup 2 mile 4
and the boat race 4.5 miles
now he,s a weaker finisher  at 2 miles Laugh
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 16:40
Again a really poor day tomorrow.

Just one bet, Clondaw Royale extra places in the Haydock opener. Second run back over hurdles. Only win for a claimer, and still young enough to improve. Trip is the (big) question mark. Price has gone, but Bet365 still out on a limb.
By:
MJK
When: 29 Dec 24 16:54

Dec 29, 2024 -- 9:11AM, MJK wrote:


Dec 28, 2024 --  7:17PM, sageform wrote:Regents Stroll was keen to post, pulled very hard and in the end was not far off second. Give him his head in a truly run 2 miles race. But even if he won,it would make him even keener the next time.Nicholls saying that he's not convinced everything is right with the stable. Making excuses or a genuine concern? Not what odds on backers want to hear if they plan on lumping on Insurrection today.


Total blowout again. Hopefully not too many lumped on.

By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 19:26
Anyone know why Ewing isn't riding at Punchestown on Tuesday? Unfortunately, Gainford jocked up on Shannon Royale.

Had to chuckle when I read about Mullins talking about upping Ballyburn in trip as if he had just discovered the wheel. 'People were saying before that he could be a Champion Hurdle horse...' Wasn't that you, and the media clowns just followed? Isn't it you that decided to run a staying horse three times over two miles? Aren't you the reason the horse has two defeats on his record? Lovely piece of attempted blame shifting.
By:
penzance
When: 29 Dec 24 19:39
Suspended
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 20:10
Is this a quiz? What's suspended?
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Dec 24 20:11
Apologies, too tied up with Mullins.
By:
penzance
When: 29 Dec 24 20:13
You asked a question.
He's suspended.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 24 10:29
Thanks, for some strange reason I was initially thinking a race market had been suspended.

I could cash out my Clondaw Royale bet for a nice profit, but it's small enough to just let it run. All about whether he can get home on the ground. Fingers crossed.
By:
cobs101
When: 30 Dec 24 11:36
A Couple of interest in  HC chases today.

Happy And Fine (2.30 HAY) - Won this last year in a good time in similar conditions and tends to go well fresh. Looks a little over-priced.

School For Scandal (3.27 Tau) - won over C&D on his penultimate start in a fast time to follow up the Wincanton win. Might have got bogged down in the mud last time but ran well for a long time and drying ground will be in his favour today. A prominent ride might make him hard to peg back and he has been well backed this morning.

GL todayCool
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 24 12:17
Lucky talking his usual amount of cheerleading twaddle. Thankfully, I will only dip in and out today, more out than in.

Just to correct what's been written and talked about in the media. I watched the interview with Michael O'Leary and he wasn't adamant about where Brighterdaysahead would end up going. Media making it sound as if was 90/10 in favour of the Mares' when it was more like 60/40. Whatever, it will be a great shame if both the mares don't turn up for the Champion Hurdle.
By:
cobs101
When: 30 Dec 24 12:26
*Happy And Fine 1.30 not 2.30
By:
jasstardust
When: 30 Dec 24 12:39
good shout dd
clondaw !!!
By:
mfw
When: 30 Dec 24 12:39
Great call DD
By:
sageform
When: 30 Dec 24 12:41
Well done dd with Clondaw Royal. 10lb allowance much more important than having a top jockey although he rode it fine.
By:
cobs101
When: 30 Dec 24 12:48
WD dd but Bushy Park was traveling much the best when it fell.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 24 12:52
Thanks 25/1-11/4. Jumping sketchy for most of the race, but jumped well up the straight. If only that happened all the time.
By:
cobs101
When: 30 Dec 24 12:55
Excellent pick at the price nonetheless
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 24 13:14
Nice performance from Laganhill. Looks fine, nice pedigree, where has he been, and why haven't they managed to sell him? Shouldn't have too much trouble in that direction now.
By:
sageform
When: 30 Dec 24 14:00
Henry Daly has been on a bit of a roll and Stan Shepherd is underestimated imo. 2 big yards in opposition skewed the odds but I am not really betting today.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 24 14:54
Nice performance from Hollygrove Cha Cha. If you wanted the direct opposite of her optimum it would be Taunton, on quick ground, and over the minimum trip. The big plus would be she jumped much better, albeit still not quick enough for a two-mile race. Back up in trip she will be difficult to beat, and you can see her ending up in that Newbury race over the intermediate trip.
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 24 15:11
Disappointing that it appears Pauling is going to divert Handstands away from Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Seems strange to me as he looks a more thorough stayer than The Jukebox Man. If The Jukebox Man has to go to Cheltenham why not run both?
By:
cobs101
When: 30 Dec 24 15:44
Happy And Fine jumped well but annoyingly faded out of the places in the straight.
School For Scandal couldn't get to the front and never really looked like winning. This may have been a better quality race than the one he won here and also might need better ground.Cool
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Dec 24 16:39
Not a great day again tomorrow, but a few races of interest.

It looks a weak Punchestown bumper. Bambino Fever is probably bargain basement for Mullins. She was three lengths down when the leader departed in her point. I don't think she would have won. The horse that did come down won next time and was sold to Tony Mullins for 100,000. I thought it was worth taking an each-way chance on the well-bred Queen Of Zim.

At Warwick, I am glad I missed the 7/1 on Ballymackie. At 7/2 there is no decision to be made. I have flagged this one up, but it goes in off top weight having shown virtually nothing in races it had no chance of winning. It's jumping is a concern, as it has shown a tendency to drag it's rear end through the fences. Keops Des Bordes might be the star of the day, but who knows what Skelton will be up to tomorrow. We know the owner isn't always too bothered about winning if there is a long-term gain. For what it's worth the horse travelled well on the front end when winning his point. Skelton bought the second. No Drama This End won a weak English point. He looked professional, but the second gave away most of the winning margin by continually jumping right. I think he likely needs a lot better to be in contention.

I have backed Rock Sensation each-way in the closing Uttoxeter bumper. No surprise if it goes off favourite as her point form is probably the best on offer. She was eventually outspeeded by Future Prospect in her point. Supreme Malinas had come down before the race had taken shape. My worry would be is whether she has enough pace as she looks a scopey, staying type. Hopefully, she is ridden forward.
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