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Nice 14/1 strike with Enniskerry to add to the 11/2 (Rule 4) Della Casa Lunga. He was a bit iffy at a few hurdles, but on that ground he has always been a decent horse. Confirms that Washington was thrown in last time. That one will be short for the Betfair.
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nice winner dd
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Christmas has come two day's late, Beachcomber another 14/1 winner. Lovely round of jumping, and why McLernon should be riding in preference to O'Neill.
Hartur D'Arc is terribly frustrating. He had a nice pitch, and hadn't made a semblance of a mistake until departing. I guess like many, I have backed the winner a few times. |
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Bookmakers benefit in the closing bumper. Hard to believe all of the front three were non-stayers. God Help Us was very backed 12/1-100/30. He was a little free, but shouldn't have checked out like that. More woe for Mullins.
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I have already said that I think Nicholls is running Regent's Stroll in the Challow primarily for himself, rather than what's best for the horse. That said he is the best horse in the race so I have had a small win bet. They have already said that Potter's Charm is going up in trip, so I am assuming that Regent's Stroll will drop back in trip, whatever happens. Also backed It's Hard To Know without the front two. His form wasn't boosted by God Help Us, but clearly that one didn't turn up. I have chanced Ballybreeze each-way in the hope that a new jockey might spark a revival. At Leopardstown I have had a go in two of the more competitive races. Murphy seems to run plenty for this owner, and most show bits and pieces without ever looking like troubling the judge. Surely there must be some end goal? I am hoping Stay Gold might do a little better tomorrow. Binge Worthy who beat him last time is favourite for the Pertemps Qualifier. The two horses kept each other company for much of that race. I came down on Rushmount who had some reasonable novice form. The stable have been responsible for two well supported beaten favourites in last two days, including the opening debacle at Limerick. This one couldn't be any worse than that.
In the Savills I will of course be watching my idea of the Gold Cup winner, Inothewayurthinkin. In all honesty I see him as a Spring horse, and consequently, I thought that the Irish Gold Cup would be the first inkling of where we stand. He has been nibbled each-way for this race so hopefully, it will be a step up on the John Durkan. The step up in trip should be a plus. Of course the other hope is that Fact To File looks like a non-stayer. Fingers crossed. Big day for Blackmore tomorrow. She hasn't been riding anything like her best for a long time now. As far as I can see she hasn't been missed at all. Has De Bromhead got it in him to dispense with her services, or is he just hoping she will realise that her time is up? |
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I am a Nicholls fan but after the last 2 days I could not back one until he has an impressive run of form.
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I should have also mentioned David's Well. I flagged him several times last season, but he looks much improved for a fence. Even with the weight rise he looks as if he will be winning something decent.
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DD re Blackmore I'll be very surprised if Bob Olinger is beaten tomorrow.
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Looking forward to seeing the Elliott horse in the bumper tomorrow. They were very impressed by it's PTP win.
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He went clear from two out, and recorded a good time. That said he didn't make my point list for this season. Those behind haven't done much for the form, and a line through the second would suggest he isn't as good as Walks In June. He might be a speedier type than that one. The sire is relatively unknown, but Mullins has got at least two by him, Kawaboomga and Kiss Will. It doesn't look a particularly strong bumper with the Mullins runner being tonked on debut.
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More than a little pressure on Mullins today. For once results are not going well. The win of one horse isn't compensating for the defeat of many others. Yesterday he was the one exposed, not Ballyburn. How can you be so clueless about the most promising horse in the yard? Ballyburn now faces the prospect of a less than smooth transition from two to three miles. How much easier that would have been had he just gone from two and a half to three. Now he has to get being asked to go far faster than ideal out of his system. It amazes me how many owners are willing to just follow a trainer over a cliff.
Ballybreeze has been very weak (after initial support) for no obvious reason. Not expecting a great deal if the current market is any guide. Stay Gold has been smashed up from 16/1-7/2. I wouldn't entertain him at the current price. Is a jock with such a woeful strike rate up to landing such a gamble on a big day? Bits and pieces for Rushmount. I would have gone each-way on Good Land at 14/1 with 8 runners, but both price, and three places have gone. Massive gamble on Inothewayurthinkin continues 50/1-7/1. If such a big run is expected today, I am surprised he isn't being cut for the Gold Cup. |
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Just listened to Cobden, and he is clearly concerned about Regent's Stroll seeing it out. The trainer is on record as saying this is ideal. I know which of the two I think is closer to the truth. I wouldn't be surprised if the jock wanted to horse to remain at the minimum, but Nicholls has made the call, purely because he wants another Challow. This could be a very tough race for a non-stayer.
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I note your distrust of RPR dd but Bill Joyce is clear top in the Challow so he was my bet and has shortened a full point already. Neither Nicholls nor Skelton had great Xmas results. I have laid Galopin at evens in case he is short of pace at 3 miles I don't see any danger in the Gold Cup barring injury.
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Unless I am mixing the colours up, Stay Gold was a bit unlucky, certainly in terms of landing the each-way. He looked to be staying on when badly impeded by the casualty at the last. That said he had an awful track position throughout, and that jock isn't anywhere near good enough. He certainly won't be carrying any more of my money in the near future.
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Loved Final Demand's way of going , even though he got a bit tired over the last two , but thats what money buys , one for the future indeed .
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Ballybreeze most certainly wasn't unlucky. That was awful, he was effectively beat from the start. It looked like a schooling mission. What's the point bringing a horse back if it's that fragile? Just no confidence to his jumping whatsoever.
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regents stroll up in trip is a lay under 2/1 imo
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differentdrum • December 28, 2024 11:16 AM GMT
This could be a very tough race for a non-stayer. historically it has been yes |
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Awesome Galopin des Champs. In another 2 furlongs he would have won 20 lengths.
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race dictated by townend, grey horse given v astute ride for 3rd
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absolutely ran his face off 1st time out gg
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1st beat didn't show any speed at any stage, you,d think THE SPUD RACE rather than drop back in trip
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Awesome The New Lion! I thought that Bill Joyce had every chance turning in but Skelton was just sitting there. Nicholls needs to consider shutting up shop for 2 weeks. Not just not good enough but why are they weakening so quickly. Regents Stroll was OK but Farnoge, like Rubaud yesterday was pitiful to watch.
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2m strong pace suit betfair/county hurdle possible...been talked up so much tho maiden hurdle straight to grade 1 mark prob spunked
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fook me that was short lived even for PUMPKIN went from possible superstar 20 mins ago,to look after him for chasing
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And then one goes and wins. That is so typical of recent days. Inthewaterside was a very easy winner though.
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Aside from a couple of mistakes, I was quite happy with Inothewayurthinkin. It was certainly a step forward from the John Durkan. Cheltenham should suit better, particularly if it's a bit slower ground, and if he can find 7lbs, he is at least in the place mix. The Irish Gold Cup should give another clue. Fact To File was a length down at the last and eight lengths down at the line. Do they have the sense to switch to the Ryanair? Who knows, but that would be a much more suitable target.
That was a disaster for Regent's Stroll. A ludicrous bit of placing from Nicholls in his selfish quest for another Challow. The way he lined up and was ridden it's almost like they knew it themselves. This was his best novice, and now he is forced to drop back in trip, but off the back of a hard race. Idiotic stuff. Bill Joyce ran well enough, but it's yet another from the conveyor belt of novices from that stable that fall short when upped in class. Why should Mister Meggit be any different? It's Hard To Know was nowhere near good enough, and the proximity of Wendigo would make you wonder about the value of the form. Bob Olinger feeble off the bridle, or doesn't get three miles? Maybe both. He finds so little I don't know why they don't ride him forward. It's about the only thing they have left. Rushmount ran a little better than his final position. Unfortunately, he landed flat footed at nearly every hurdle. You can't do that in a competitive handicap. The jock is riding with little confidence. Be very surprised if that Leopardstown turns out to be much good. The second by far the pick on looks, and he is by the relatively moderate sire, Telescope. You wonder if De Bromhead only got him because of Slade Steel. |
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other than giving it ago ,not sure what you saw today that warrants regents been dropped in trip.never showed any speed to get even competitive ,if anything wants upping in trip on that display
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The answer to your question is just about everything. Why do you think Cobden was worried about him getting home and rode him like a non-stayer? When was the last horse that they had ridden like that? It doesn't happen. Absolutely no chance of going up in trip.
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Just the one early bet tomorrow, Harbour Highway each-way in the opener at Leopardstown. Argento Boy has by far the best form, but not sure about him left-handed. If it isn't an issue then he should win.
No bet yet because she is drifting, but given that going left-handed should seriously improve her jumping, not really sure why Brighterdaysahead can't see off State Man again. |
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My thoughts from today.
I hope Mullins doesn't think he needs an Ankle type and moves Impaire Et Passe down to 2 miles, the horse needs 2 and half and would probably stay 3 miles if asked. Fact Or File will run in the Ryanair imo as I don't think it has any chance over 3miles 2f in the Gold Cup. I've not watched The Challow and Regents Stroll , but I've commented before I thought the horse looked a boat in its bumpers. |
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Regents Stroll was keen to post, pulled very hard and in the end was not far off second. Give him his head in a truly run 2 miles race. But even if he won,it would make him even keener the next time.
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Mullins has already got his Arkle horse in Majborough. He could give Sir Gino much more of a race than Ballyburn was ever likely to do.
I couldn't be confident of Fact To File running in the Ryanair. That's what he should do - I have been saying that all season - but it appears Mullins needs something akin to a sledgehammer to change direction. As illustrated by Ballyburn. Even now I couldn't be 100% certain he has got the two-mile nonsense out of his system. Has anyone ever heard him admit to making a mistake? Regent's Stroll looked a different horse first time over hurdles to the impression he gave in bumpers. Just watched Final Demand. Another from my point list, I should have given him a mention earlier. He looked a strong stayer in his point (the form nothing special), and again today. He darted right at the last two hurdles, and was ridden close to the rail. Both wins have come right handed, and soft ground looks a plus. I think any perceived value has already been sucked out of the Albert Bartlett market. |
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You are going to get a faster pace at a shorter distance so much more chance of getting a horse to settle, and more chance of winning, even if it doresn't settle. As I said at the time using Good And Clever as a guide he would just about have won the Aintree Grade 1 which was run at a decent pace.
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It is clear that at least some of the horses are not healthy. You don't get many of his out of the first 4 when things are going well but now we have seen 7 pulled up in a week and many others stopping quickly from 3 out. There will always be outliers which run well or even win and a casual glance at the stat of 7 wins from 56 might not seem that bad but it covers up the number that are running really well below form. Skeltons had a big success with A New Lion but 5 from 47 is also below par until you look at the number of placings and there are very few getting tailed off or pulled up. Every yard has these spells but the trick is to know how to deal with it. Harry Derham has had a very different experience with his gallops being destroyed by the flooding a while back. Once he is back firing he could have a flood of winners.
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Other than Stay Gold, who I think would have finished in the five, it was a poor punting day yesterday. Today looks horrible and any bet at all might well be a mistake.
I cashed out Harbour Highway last night for no loss. I didn't want to be involved with one of JP's that looked like it was being supported, and then very quickly drifts back out to bigger than it should be. So it's an exercise in having a small interest, and trying to keep losses to a minimum. In the opener at Kelso I have gone with Far From Over without the favourite. A little improvement on seasonal debut should put him in the mix. I have persuaded myself to back Brighterdaysahead. In an ideal world you could back her each-way, but trying to actually win the race might well let in one of the rags. Bookmakers delighted if it does. In the last I have gone with William Butler, again without the favourite. He has been very weak in the market, but has a reasonable pedigree, and although looking pretty clueless on debut, he eventually finished very strongly. Obviously, a concern about the inexperienced jock. I did consider Jus De Citron in a tight little race at Doncaster, but the jock/trainer combination are not in form, and the horse may have had a problem. He finished very tamely (having looked the winner) in his last point, and a tongue tie is fitted today. |