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George's 2024 Selection Thread

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Replies: 784
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Oct 24 12:29
Cool Run, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.45 Newcastle

Cool Run doesn't face an easy task here being a 62-rated three-year-old filly who's running in a 0-74 and against mainly older male opposition, but she ended her juvenile campaign rated 73 after finishing runner-up in nurseries here over 5/6f last autumn, and although she finished a well-held 5th of 6 over C/D on her reapearance in May having taken a keen hold, that race turned out to be strong form, with the winner Vantheman going on to win off a 9lb higher mark on turf, the runner-up Make It Easy continued to run well in defeat including when making the frame in a couple of York handicaps, the third Queen's Guard is 2-2 on the AW since and is now rated 90, while the fourth Moonstone Boy has won twice on turf this season.

The selection hasn't offered much on turf in three starts since and returns from a 103-day having undergone wind surgery and now with blinkers applied, but those three course runs are her only all-weather starts to date so she's of a little interest back here off her reduced mark (11lb lower than when last seen on the AW).

Stoneacre Girl, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 6.45 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Stoneacre Girl ran well in first-time blinkers to finish runner-up to a subsequent winner at Musselburgh (5f, good) in August, and although she could only finish 5th of 12 on her next start in a slightly higher grade at Beverley (5f, good) last month, she ran well in the circumstances considering her wide draw looked a disadvantage on that occasion as the action unfolded towards the far rail. The selection could only finish 8th of 12 on her latest 5f start at Southwell, but perhaps wasn't helped by a high draw but was noted making some late headway.

The blinkers the selection has worn for her last three starts are now removed but this step up to 6f looks worth a try, and as she has still looked in form the last twice despite finishing out of the frame, she looks worth chancing each-way.

He's An Angel, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 7.00 Southwell

He's An Angel put in a shocker on his latest start at Newcastle (6f) when prominent in the betting for a 0-67, 13-runner handicap, but prior to that over 6f at this course last month he had indicated that he may be about to find some form again off his reduced mark, having had plenty of use made of him from a wide draw after missing a beat at the start, but he only dropped out the places around half-a-furlong out before ending up fifth of 12 in that 0-74 handicap.

The dire effort last time is obviously a concern, and this 6f course winner has to prove he can be effective at the minimum trip here (though has won at 5f round Lingfield), but is now 7lb below his last winning mark and drops back in grade, with Jason Watson taking his first ride for the yard.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Oct 24 12:56
^ correction: same grade as last time but a lower one than his previous course run
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Oct 24 22:10
Cool Run travelled well, held up off the pace but didn't pick up with any gusto once in the clear. I suppose she didn't shape too badly considering she was returning from a break and is eligible for weaker races, so if she goes the right way from this she should be more competitive in lower grades, though her yard's form does seem a bit in and out.

Stoneacre Girl had the headgear removed and was held up to get the trip on this step up to a stiff 6f, she did make some late headway without ever looking a threat to the principals.

He's An Angel, who had suggested two starts back over the 6f trip at Southwell that he may be finding some form again off his reduced mark, put in a second consecutive shocker.

2024 Running P/L: +189.77 pts
By:
De_man
When: 29 Oct 24 01:43
He s An Angel very disappointing...
By:
De_man
When: 29 Oct 24 01:47
Kyber Kristal missed break lto.. always think better show nto after one of those and Kings Scholar of Mr Walkers also slowly away lto so think both better runs today and should go very close...GL with yours
.
Good P/L + 190 .. wow wd GB
By:
stewarty b
When: 29 Oct 24 17:05
Sorry GEORGE, haven't looked in for a while but well done on your P/L.
By:
De_man
When: 29 Oct 24 20:32
2 good runs there... Kings Scholar romped in and KK close in 2nd to one cant fathom tbh.. winner no form whatsoever ..
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Oct 24 20:41
Well done De_man, two good shouts, and how unlucky was that, running into a Wainwright winner with no recent form. No one was releasing Ninety Nine red balloons after that one crossed the line front Sad

Cheers stewy, unfortunately the thread's P/L has started to go the wrong way.
By:
cobs101
When: 29 Oct 24 20:55
Not for long I'm sureCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Oct 24 14:46
I wish I shared your optimism, Cobs, but a frustrating run where things didn't pan out well for some picks that might have won on another day, and now a run of nailing them to the floor, it would seem that the thread is petering out into a damp squib.

Encosta, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.44 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Encosta, who did the thread a favour when winning a handicap (via the stewards' room) at Leopardstown (10f, good) in May, hasn't been in much form in three starts since, but might have needed the latest of them at the Curragh (10f, y) in a 72-90 handicap when returning from a 115-day break, and a 2lb drop for that allows her into this 0-70, and leaves her 2lb above her winning mark.

There are a couple of queries here, notably the surface, but her pedigree offers encouragement that she will take to Polytrack, and also the drop in trip to a mile, particularly as she has been declared to run again here on Friday evening in a 12f handicap, but she did finish a neck second off a 7lb higher mark in a Leopardstown handicap over a mile last season, which was just one of her three attempts over the trip.

It will be interesting to see how Encosta goes in the betting here closer to the off given she's been declared to run over 12f on Friday, but a chance is taken each-way at the odds on this drop in class, with a few firms offering four places.
By:
cobs101
When: 30 Oct 24 16:15
Good shout, another frustrating one, bad luckCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Oct 24 16:54
Ta, Cobs. Frustrating indeed, didn't get the clear run in time before going down by two short heads. Character building.

2024 Running P/L: +191.97 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 Oct 24 13:49
Upper Hand, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.15 Southwell (4 PLACES)

Upper Hand made the frame on three occasions as a juvenile when trained by John Butler, including twice on the all-weather, and showed enough to suggest there should be a modest handicap to be won with him. His four runs for his current yard this year have been disappointing but he didn't look an entirely lost cause in a 0-65 at Wolverhampton in March, and he might have needed the run when running poorly on soft ground at Catterick earlier this month on his return from an 197-day break.

A further drop in the weights allows him into this 0-52, and he can run off an 8lb lower mark than for two of those placed efforts from last season, so while he has to conclusively prove that some ability remains, he looks worth chancing each-way at biggish odds with that recent comeback run behind him.

Jalaybee, 1pt EW @ 11-2, 8.15 Southwell (3 PLACES)

Jalaybee was well supported in the betting when winning over C/D earlier this month on what was his all-weather debut and just his second attempt at a mile. He seemed to have a bit in hand at the finish when getting the better of an in-form filly who was well in under a penalty and also had a 5lb claimer taking over in the saddle.

Jalaybee is up 3lb and this is a stronger race, but an experienced claimer takes over in the plate to negate the rise in the weights, and the selection remains unexposed at the distance and on the surface.
By:
madhatters
When: 31 Oct 24 21:36
Placers GB Grin
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 Oct 24 22:03
Cheers Mad'

Upper Hand, who had worn blinkers for the first time when not looking an entirely lost cause in a higher grade at Wolverhampton in March, had them back on this evening and he ran on from off the pace to finish a never threatening third.

Jalaybee was a bit of an unknown quantity under the conditions but had his limitations exposed on this step up into class five company, though ran okay to finish in the extra place spot.

2024 Running P/L: +197.67 pts
By:
Brian
When: 01 Nov 24 10:13
Some good picks there George. Thinking out of the box does help with the horsesGrin
By:
cobs101
When: 01 Nov 24 14:03
Nice place profits WDCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Nov 24 14:37
Cheers Cobs and Brian. Good luck today.

Miss Black Jack, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 6.00 Dundalk

Miss Black Jack had gone close here in a C/D maiden back in February, and backed that up when bolting up in a C/D handicap against her own age group in April. She then finished down the field in what was quite a competitive fillies' Listed race at Chelmsford, and then hasn't offered much in four starts on turf since, though the latest of them at the Curragh ten days ago was probably needed when returning from over three months off.

The selection is of interest back at Dundalk, but the big question is whether she's up to being competitive off a 10lb higher mark than for her win, now against stronger and mainly older opposition, but she looks worth chancing at the odds to find out, given she hasn't had many chances on the surface, and apprentice title contender James Ryan is enlisted for the ride, with cheekpieces given a try.

Master Garvey, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 8.00 Dundalk (PLACES)

Master Garvey's only win to date in 26 starts came on heavy ground over 7f at Naas back in March, but he had suggested last November here over 10.5f that there may be in a race in him on Polytrack, given how he tanked through the race before becoming a little outpaced in the straight and then sticking on well for 4th. It's a bit of a concern that he didn't necessarily build on that effort in two further starts here last backend over tonight's trip of a mile, but he might have had an excuse for one of them as he returned with a cut mouth, and wasn't disgraced in the other when finishing 5th of 14 having been keen enough.

He can take a grip in his races so it has to be hoped he doesn't compromise his chance if he does so again, but he hasn't had many chances on the surface and he's shown enough here to suggest he has a bigger effort in him.

Encosta, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 8.30

I'm going to select Encosta again, who looked a little unfortunate not to win here on Wednesday over a mile in what was a weaker race. The query then was the drop in trip, and now this 10f winner has to prove her stamina for 12f, having been weak in the betting this morning ahead of this stronger contest.

The rise in grade is a concern coupled with a question mark over the trip, but she's unexposed on the surface.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Nov 24 22:12
Miss Black Jack, one I got badly wrong. I suppose it's one thing a 3YO filly looking good against her own age group in April, but quite another up against some grizzled old handicappers off a 10lb higher mark, and she finished well beaten.

Master Garvey put in a shocker.

Encosta didn't settle on this step up to 12f in a stronger contest than she had run in on Wednesday, but still ran okay to finish third.

2024 Running P/L: +194.47 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Nov 24 13:33
Juan Cool Dude, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.30 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)

Juan Cool Dude's latest effort over the stretch-mile at Wolverhampton probably wanted marking up considering he was caught wide through the first three furlongs in a race where the first and second were held up on the inner, and having led into the home straight he was only headed inside the last half-furlong by a mare who has won again since under a 4lb penalty.

This is a stronger contest being a 0-58, whereas he was in a 0-52 then when racing from out of the handicap, but he's potentially better drawn this time and Kaiya Fraser retains the ride, so if the switch to this course is no hinderance then hopefully he can give a good account at a double-figure price, with a few firms offering four places.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Nov 24 13:34
* Southwell Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Nov 24 22:29
Like all my best EW 4 places picks, Juan Cool Dude finished fifth, which was disappointing because he got a lovely tracking position just in behind the eventual winner but could only plug on at the one pace. I think it's just the way he's made but he does carry his head high so just wonder if he might benefit from some headgear being reapplied, particularly as he did seem to be dossing in front at Wolverhampton the time before. He has worn a visor before but when the runs might have been needed.

2024 Running P/L: +192.47 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 Nov 24 11:54
Poetic Jack, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 5.30 Chelmsford

A 51-day break for Poetic Jack is a bit of a concern as he doesn't have any great record fresh, but what does look a positive is Marco Ghiani being back aboard, as he does seem to get the best out of the selection, with a C/D win off a 5lb higher mark last November and two places from seven rides on him. It was a good effort when Ghiani was last aboard three starts back over the 6f trip here when finishing second to one who had the benefit of Kaiya Fraser's 5lb claim and who has won again since on turf off a 3lb higher mark and without Fraser's claim.

Poetic Jack has run respectably the last twice under different jockeys over 6f at Lingfield and back here when finishing a close-up 4th on both occasions, and the latter form has worked out with the second and third having won since.

The selection will need to settle better than has sometimes been the case now back up to 7f, but if the short break isn't an issue regarding fitness then hopefully he can give a good account here if getting into a good rhythm from stall two.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 Nov 24 22:20
For a brief moment I thought Poetic Jack was going to reel in the eventual winner but he couldn't quite get there.

2024 Running P/L: +192.67 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Nov 24 12:52
Lednikov, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 5.00 Southwell

Lednikov's mark is in danger of bottoming out but he hasn't looked a lost cause in two of his three runs back here since returning from five months off, notably so on the first occasion over the 11f trip when he finished off on the front foot to be beaten only 2L despite finishing only 6th of 12, and last time over 12f when perhaps shaping better than the bare result having been held-up in a steadily-run contest, then not had a clear run over a furlong out before trying to challenge away from the action unfolded.

His two course wins came over 11 and 12 furlongs so there is a query over whether today's 14f trip is ideal, though he seemed to stay the distance when finishing third of 12 here last year when rated 16lb higher, albeit in a race run in a time nearly eight seconds above standard.

Em Jay Kay, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.00 Southwell

Em Jay Kay hasn't had loads of racing at Southwell, but his career-best effort according to RPRs came here when finishing second of 14 over 6f in February last year, and he wasn't far off that RPR figure when finishing a close-up 4th of 12 here last December over that trip. He was in fair form earlier in the year, finishing second at Newmarket (6f) and going on to win at Nottingham (6f) from a subsequent dual winner, but three disappointing efforts since returning from a two-month break this autumn have seen his mark fall to the one he last won off.

There's obviously a query over whether he's in the form to take advantage of his reduced mark, but he might have needed a couple of runs back, and he had a wide trip at Chelmsford last time. What most definitely is a concern though is the 7f trip, as the only time he's tried it previously was on his penultimate start at Wolverhampton (in a race won by Novak, who he has a 6lb pull with excluding claims), when he was never able to get involved, though as mentioned the run might still have been needed.

Phil McEntee also runs Royal Parade (ridden  by his daughter Grace) who is well handicapped on old form and appeals as the sort his yard could do well with, but a chance is taken on Em Jay Kay at the odds despite the concern about the trip, now back at Southwell and with Rossa Ryan riding him for the first time.

Ziggy's Condor, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 7.00 Southwell (4 PLACES)

Ziggy's Condor is hard to fancy based on his last three runs and he hasn't been seen since July, but that may be no more bad thing as he's clearly capable of running well fresh as he won on his debut as a 2Y0, and it looked a big effort on his reappearance this season when finishing second of 15 at York (7f, good, Dante meeting), the form of which worked out well with the unexposed winner Diligent Resdev going on to win the Ayr Bronze Cup, and the third Blue Prince winning an 18-runner handicap at Glorious Goodwood. The selection is now able to race off the same mark.

Ziggy's Condoe does have to prove himself on the all-weather and that the drop back to 6f isn't an issue, though is related to winners on synthetics, and the way he went through the race on that reappearance run suggested he should be fine back at 6f.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Nov 24 19:39
Lednikov was one of four to pull clear of the short-priced fav but having held every chance of making the frame had to settle for 4th place.

Em Jay Kay ran well for 3rd on what was his third attempt at 7f (not second as I had mistakenly said in my write-up). He looks up to winning at this trip on this evidence, particularly as he's eligible for weaker races.

Ziggy's Condor again ran well when fresh but it was a bit disappointing that he didn't finish his race off with a bit more gusto having entered the final furlong with a winning chance, albeit he was only beaten under two lengths into fifth place.

2024 Running P/L: +190.87 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Nov 24 12:38
The Bear Trap, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 4.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

The Bear Trap is still a maiden after sixteen starts but has made the frame on six occasions and shown enough to suggest he should be up to winning a race off his current mark, and one of his better efforts came over C/D on his final start as a 2YO last December when just losing out on the bob in a field of 14 to one who followed up in a Leopardstown handicap. The third has won twice since, notably on her most recent start here over the mile trip off an 8lb higher mark, while the fourth has run well in defeat here since and subsequently won twice on turf.

The selection was absent for over three months this summer but has looked in reasonable form in three starts this autumn and has shaped better than the bare result the last twice over 6f at the Curragh in big field handicaps having been denied a clear run on both occasions. He's able to race off the same mark as for that C/D effort and 10lb claimer Sam Coen is enlisted to ease his burden.

Westerton, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.00 Southwell

Westerton has been weak in the betting today and comes here on the back of two disappointing efforts over hurdles where he didn't live up to market expectations, but he's of interest back on Tapeta as his only start to date on the all-weather which came over 10f at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate day looked a decent one, having had plenty of use made of him from the outside stall before finishing third to one who was making it 3-5 on artificial surfaces. This effort came on the back of a wind operation and he did have a peak rating of 100 on turf at one point, so it's not necessarily that he improved for the switch of surface but it was certainly an encouraging start in this sphere.

He has to prove he can be effective here too, but can race off the same mark with Brandon Wilkie taking 3lb off, and interesting to see if he can back that Newcastle effort up.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Nov 24 21:31
A couple of disappointments.

The Bear Trap didn't seem badly positioned in mid-div but that was on a card where all the winners either made the running or were close to the pace, so he might have had a bit of excuse there, but that said he had a chunk of weight claimed off his back and he looked close enough to the leaders turning in.

Westerton, who was wore cheekpieces for the first time, was friendless in the betting, and having been ridden prominently he was soon left behind when things got serious. So he either looks badly handicapped off a mark of 95, or this was an example of Newcastle form not transferring to Southwell.

2024 Running P/L: +186.87 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Nov 24 11:44
Another Beautiful, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 7.30 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)

The form of Another Beautiful's first run on turf at Beverley (10f, good) in September when she finished third, worked out quite well with subsequent wins for the second, fourth (a hat-trick), 5th & 6th (twice), and the selection's effort might have wanted marking up considering she'd been plenty keen enough on the front-end in a contest where the winner came from the rear. She could only finish 5th of 8 on her latest start at Leicester, when again taking a keen hold, but perhaps the heavy ground wasn't ideal.

Another Beautiful would be of much interest back on a decent surface on turf given how the Beverley form worked out, particularly given she's a pound lower here, but in the context of this 0-60 (+ 6lb penalty for Cerulean Summer), her all-weather form doesn't read too badly given she has recorded RPRs in the 70s on three occasions form eight starts on synthetics and races here off an official rating of 59.

Her tendency to take a grip is a concern but hopefully the addition of a hood to the cheekpieces (which she wore for the first time at Beverley) and tongue-tie can help her settle better, with Marco Ghiani taking over in the saddle from 5lb claimer Elle-May Croot.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Nov 24 21:56
Another Beautiful probably went off quick enough judging from the red sectionals and how the race panned out with the first two storming clear from off the pace, but even allowing for that she was beaten soon enough under three furlongs out and came home in her own time.

2024 Running P/L: +184.87 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Nov 24 10:55
Jumeira Vision, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 6.18 Newcastle

Jumeira Vision was a winner at Wolverhampton (9.5f) last November off a 4lb higher mark when trained by Archie Watson, and he completed a hat-trick on turf this summer for his current yard off lower marks from one mile to 9 furlongs whilst showing himself to be versatile regarding going.

His latest start which came over this evening's C&D was just his second on the all-weather for Katie Scott and it suggested there may be races to be won with him this all-weather season, as he fared best of the prominent-racers in finishing fourth in a contest which was won by Barleybrown who was winning for the fourth time over C&D, with subsequent C&D winner Jewel Maker in second. The selection has been dropped a pound which leaves him 4lb below his winning all-weather mark, so while he's eligible for weaker races than this one, he's evidently on a workable mark and his chance may be enhanced if getting more peace on the sharp-end than he did last time out.

Dazy Mazy, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 7.18 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Dazy Mazy might have needed a couple of runs back following a three-month break and she hinted last time out at Newmarket that she may be finding some form, and is now back on the mark she won off at Doncaster in June. She's of a little interest here now tried again on the all-weather having shaped with promise in three of her four starts on Tapeta from 5 to 7 furlongs, including at this course, and might have had an excuse when last seen in this sphere at Wolverhampton in February when she raced wide and was reported to have hung right-handed throughout.

The selection has been notably weak in the betting this morning, and Clifford Lee, who might normally be perceived generally as a positive booking, is 0-9 for the yard, so there may be other days for this filly, but that early promise from her on Tapeta hasn't been forgotten and it'll be interesting to see how she gets on here.
By:
Virgin
When: 16 Nov 24 19:32
Wd George SadGrin gl ...
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Nov 24 19:43
Cheers Virgin.

Dazy Mazy couldn't be given away in the betting but ran well to finish 3rd @ 33-1.

Trying to get two placed on the same post usually proves beyond me and Jumeira Vision, who was involved in a 3-way go for second place behind the easy winner, had to settle for 4th.

2024 Running P/L: +188.47 pts
By:
cobs101
When: 16 Nov 24 20:22
Nice place and UL with the place on the other oneCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Nov 24 12:32
Cheers cobs.
Good luck today.

Glendown, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 8.15 Southwell (4 PLACES)

Glendown is now 3lb lower than the mark he won off at Pontefract in August (5f, g-f), and he's of a little interest here on what will be just his fourth all-weather start having shaped well on the latest of them three starts back at Newcastle (6f) in early October in a 0-79 contest, when he might not have been best positioned held up centre to far-side of the field but ran on well to just miss 4th place, beaten just under 3L behind the winner in a race where the first two home were drawn 12 and 11 respectively in a field of 12. There have been wins for the second (twice) and fourth since.

The selection's current rating of 60 means he's eligible for lower grades than this 0-65, and it has to be hoped that having finished well beaten on soft ground at Redcar last-time-out that he hasn't had enough for the year, but he may have some untapped potential on Tapeta provided he's able to transfer the form of that Newcastle run to Southwell.
By:
madhatters
When: 18 Nov 24 20:24
WD GB
Back in the groove
By:
lead on
When: 18 Nov 24 20:33
WD...back over +200
By:
cobs101
When: 18 Nov 24 20:40
Excellent shout George. well done. I backed the 2nd CryCool
By:
Brian
When: 18 Nov 24 21:03
Well done George.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Nov 24 21:31
Cheers guys.

Unlucky cobs, I had to do a double-take when I saw First Company had returned 33-1, having not unreasonably been put in at 9-2 on the RP forecast.

I was concerned about Glendown's draw in 2 given how the races were panning out there this evening with challenging stands-side generally looking an advantage but David Allan managed to end up on that part of the track.

2024 Running P/L: +202.87 pts
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