Cobs, it did indeed turn out to be a double-penalty with Renesmee folding tamely on this occasion, in a contest won by one who'd finished behind her previously over C/D.

A couple of disappointing ones today with Glitterella, who was very weak in the betting close to the off, finishing well held.

2024 Running P/L: +194.13 pts

It's been disappointing last quarter of the year tbh 'ace, but I'll keep going with it 'til the bitter end and then decide whether or not to do at least one more of these.

Good luck, George.  Do you try to stick to just these selections daily or are you tempted by last-minute fancies when watching the TV action?

Thanks, George....so hopefully you're on the right side of the bookie by keeping the discipline.

Cheers Virgin.

Mint Man (22-1 SP) was a bit unlucky as he had to squeeze through a tight gap whilst an opponent's whip was threatening to strike him in the face, before going down by a head and a neck.

Exponista offered the total sum of zilch on this occasion.

Dahab did run a lot better this time, albeit with the run of things up front in a steadily-run affair, and traded around 1.25 before going down by a neck.

2024 Running P/L: +197.73 pts

Where's The Crumpet was disappointing even allowing for being caught in the centre of the track as the action unfolded stands' side, as she couldn't even stay ahead of the 66-1 shot who she had tracked and headed.

2024 Running P/L: +195.73 pts

She was weak enough in the betting I thought, cobs, but maybe the sort to bounce back sooner rather than later.
Good luck today.

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A couple against the field at double-figure prices in the 6.00 Dundalk

Relevant Range, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 6.00 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Snag It, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 6.00 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Relevant Range did well in maiden races at this track in early 2023, finishing runner-up twice over 7f / one mile before winning one over the latter trip. He hasn't fared so well in three handicaps here and has to conclusively prove his stamina for today's 10.5f trip, but he's of interest based on his sole try over the trip here which came off a 4lb higher mark in February in a slightly higher grade when his effort probably wanted marking based on how the race panned out, having been plenty keen enough from a wide draw and been one of four to go clear on a decent pace in a contest where the 2nd, 3rd and 4th were waited with, and he seemed to do well in the circumstances to be disputing the lead until over a furlong out before losing second place inside the last half-furlong and then dropping to fith place, but leaving the impression he would stay the distance fine with a more efficient trip. The winner, who had a 10lb claimer aboard and was well backed at prices, would go on to win again here off a 5lb higer mark over a longer trip.

The selection did win on turf during the summer over a mile at Listowel off a 7lb lower mark, but still looks feasibly handicapped on the pick of his course form, granted fitness isn't an issue following a two-month break.

Snag it is a 7YO returning from nearly nine months off, so fitness is definitely a concern in his case, particularly as his yard has gone 99 runners without a winner, but he did win off a near-4 month break over C/D on his stable debut last November. He's only a pound higher now following a few disappointing runs when last seen, and is 4lb lower than when going close  from a wide draw over C/D in February.

Regarding his stable's form, it's encouraging that they had a couple run well here last week, including Mint Man who was selected on the thread and looked a little unfortunate not to go closer, and he is currently odds-on for the opening maiden on the card.

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Portoro, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.10 Kempton (4 PLACES)

Portoro is returning from a 68-day break this evening, but that might not be a bad thing in his case as he has won off an 122-day break previously, and it was off an 121-day break that he posted a good effort over C/D in September under Dylan Hogan, who's back on board here, when he attempted to make all from the widest draw at a decent pace and, having been around three lengths clear well over a furlong out, he was only headed deep inside the final furlong in that 0-66 contest. It's not obvious where this effort came from as his sole win to date had come over 10f on soft ground and he was 0-7 on the AW, but there didn't appear to be any fluke about it and he's since run okay to finish 4th over 7f at Newcastle in a lower grade.

It's possible a tongue-tie has helped and also regarding that course and distance run, it came when the surface was given as standar to slow, which it is being given as for this evening's card, so hopefully he can give another good account in this 0-55 grade.

Wd George gl. ….

Great pick WD

wd gb !

Very well done George, 200+ at level stakes is most impressive.

I suspect pre-race winner picking is completely redundant and almost irrelevant to most of the people that are still winning on BF these days - but it's still the ultimate test (imo), which makes it all the more impressive. Top bombing! - and fair play to you also for the amount of research and work that I imagine goes into the format and structure of your threads. GL

Captain Potter, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 2.50 Bangor

I'm going to chance a rare selection over hurdles for this thread with Captain Potter, who was having just his fourth try over two miles on the level when staying on strongly to win at Catterick (soft) in October. It was disappointing that he didn't back up this effort returned to that C/D on his next start when finishing a well-held fourth in a race won by the horse he'd beaten previously, but it's hard to believe that was his true form as he was only 3lb worse off with that rival.

The selection has a previous hurdles win to his name at Sedgefield (2m4f, soft) and his Catterick Flat win could suggest that he might have some untapped potential over staying trips in this sphere, but we didn't get to find that out when he was racing beyond three miles for the first time back at Catterick (3 miles1.5f, good) last month as he slipped up when still in contention after the third last. It's unlikley he would have beaten the progressive winner who was travelling much the best at the time (and has won again since) but he looked to be in the process of putting in a respectable effort.

He did lose ground at some of the flights in that Catterick contest, so hopefully today's slower ground can help in that regard and interesting to see if he can improve under this code now presented with a stiffer test of stamina.

The Bear Trap, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 6.00 Dundalk

I'm going to give another chance to The Bear Trap, who disappointed here when I selected him last month, when I wrote:

The Bear Trap is still a maiden after sixteen starts but has made the frame on six occasions and shown enough to suggest he should be up to winning a race off his current mark, and one of his better efforts came over C/D on his final start as a 2YO last December when just losing out on the bob in a field of 14 to one who followed up in a Leopardstown handicap. The third has won twice since, notably on her most recent start here over the mile trip off an 8lb higher mark, while the fourth has run well in defeat here since and subsequently won twice on turf.

The selection was absent for over three months this summer but has looked in reasonable form in three starts this autumn and has shaped better than the bare result the last twice over 6f at the Curragh in big field handicaps having been denied a clear run on both occasions. He's able to race off the same mark as for that C/D effort and 10lb claimer Sam Coen is enlisted to ease his burden.

He doesn't face an easy task back into maiden company but hopefully he can press for a place at least if putting that latest effort behind him.

great job, WD

Cheers BostonRover, Cobs & 'ace.

The Bear Trap wasn't well in with (as it turned out the very weak in the betting) Lady Pagasa, who had 10lb in hand on adjusted ratings plus a good 7lb claimer on board, but hey, never be afraid of one horse as they say!

As for my other pick, Captain Potter, a 4YO who didn't look the biggest alongside older and more obviously jump-bred types, ended up finishing well-held having been close enough if good enough, so my theory that he might appreciate longer trips over jumps looks a crackpot one based on this evidence.

2024 Running P/L: +215.33 pts

Thanks Virgin.
Good luck today.

Crocus Time, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 6.15 Southwell (4 PLACES)

Crocus Time is of a little interest here at the prices based on her penultimate run at Kempton (6f), form which ties in with one of the favourites for this, Havana Sky, who she finished ahead of when they finished second and third, and now meets on 7lb better terms, with that rival up in the weights having won twice since. It has to be said that Crocus Time might have been flattered to an extent to have finished ahead of Havana Sky at Kempton as that rival probably went off too hard in front and paid for it late on, but even so, the selection herself had been to the fore of the main body of the field and did well to stick on for second in that strongly run contest, albeit no match for the winner who has won again since off an 8lb higher mark. The 4th, 5th and 9th have also won since.

Crocus Time could only finish 6th of ten on her latest start at Windsor, but the heavy ground provides an excuse for that lesser effort. She's been off two months since and has a wide draw to overcome this evening, so fitness and how this might pan out are concerns, but she hasn't had many chances on the AW and that penultimate effort suggested there should be a race to be won with her on synthetics.

Regally Blonde, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 7.00 Wolverhampton

It takes a leap of faith to support Regally Blonde, a 15f winner (awarded race at a later date) in Ireland on turf who's been largely disappointing under both codes since arriving in England, and her jumps-orientated yard has gone 51 runners and 3746 days since their last winner on the Flat, and don't seem to be have been in much form over jumps of late. However, she's of a little interest back on the AW, which will be just her third start on an artificial surface, based on her run at Dundalk in July 2022 when trained by Andy Oliver, when from the widest stall she didn't have the most efficient of trips and so did well to go down by just a head to Ceallach, who subsequently showed himself to be a very useful performer at Dundalk and is currently rated 103. The selection has only had one AW start since, which came at Lingfield in October last year when returning from over six months off, finishing 5th of 8, so might have needed the run.

Regally Blonde has her stamina to prove for this evening's stretch-two mile trip on this drop in grade, so it has to be hoped that she settles in the first-time blinkers, but there is encouragement in her pedigree for the distance as her dam was a dual two-mile winner for Sir Mark Prescott, including on the AW at Lingfield (RPR 87).

Desert Master, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.30 Wolverhampton

Desert Master has drifted right back out having come in for early market support. He was returning from nearly six months off ahead of his latest start over C/D and was very much his yard's second string according to the market, but gave it a good shot from the front, only being headed around half-a-furlong out, and although he faded to finish 8th of the nine runners, he was beaten less than three lengths, in a contest where his better-fancied stablemate came from off the pace to prevail. The fact that the first eight home were covered by under three lengths may leave the form open to question, but there were some fair yardsticks in the field and the third has won since.

The selection is 4lb below his winning mark and has drawn the inside stall, so hopefully if going the right way from that recent comeback he can give a good account.

Magnetic North, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 6.30 Wolverhampton

Magnetic North is coming up to his tenth birthday but he retained enough ability to win a couple of races in Ireland this summer and although they were only claimers, he recorded RPRs in the 70s on both occasions, and the latter victory over 9.5f at Ballinrobe (yielding to soft) was much the quickest of four races over the trip on the card, though admittedly he had the best of the ground to race on in the opening contest, with showers around during the meeting.

He hasn't shown much in three starts since joining Rebecca Menzies but was slightly better on the latest one when finishing 4th of 8 at Redcar (one mile) nearly six weeks, albeit beaten over seven lengths.

This will be the lowest grade of handicap (0-55) that Magnetic North has contested being rated 8lb lower on the AW than he is on turf, and although he has that lower mark for a reason having failed to place in twelve starts on synthetics, he has recorded some respectable RPRs round Dundalk, albeit a while ago now. He did try Tapeta on his debut for Menzies at Newcastle in September when finishing well beaten, but that was over a trip (two miles) that might have stretched him and in a 0-75.

The selection has a bit to prove regarding surface and what he's now capable of having left Ireland, but he looks worth chancing at the prices at this lowly level based on form as recently as this summer.

Commander Straker, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.00 Wolverhampton

Commander Straker was a fairly useful early season juvenile in 2022 who finished runner-up to what turned out to be Listed / Group-class performers on his first two starts, before creating a good impression when winning a Bath (5f, good) novice. However, he's presumably has his issues as after finishing third in the Woodcote Stakes he then wasn't seen again until 645 days later when he posted a career-best RPR of 88 in a class 3 Wolverhampton 6f handicap in March when finishing 5th of 12, beaten 2L, after which he had a further 259 days off, during which time he'd undergone a wind operation, and he's had a couple of runs back at Wolverhampton recently over 5/6f recently.

He caught the eye a little over 5f on the first of those two recent runs, when although never able to get involved having been dropped in from his widest draw and been well outpaced at one point, he did seem to finish his race off on the front foot. It was disappointing he didn't build on that over 6f last-time-out but might have had an excuse as he was caught wide from another wide draw.

A subsequent 3lb drop allows him into this lower grade and he might appreciate this stiffer test at 5f given his juvenile win came at Bath. The draw potentially hasn't been kind again and he needs to conclusively prove that he can still be competitive, but it will be interesting to see how he gets on here as he appears to have a bit of size about him so might not just have been a precocious type.

We got to have a proper look at Commander Straker this time as he was ridden forward on what looked a solid gallop and he didn't see his race out inside the final furlong, but in the context of what looked a strong race for the grade - with the winner being a Royal Ascot winner who was well down the weights and relatively unexposed on the AW, and the second and third proven course performers who are still feasibly handicapped - he didn't look a lost cause albeit given his history of absences it remains to be seen which way he goes from this.

2024 Running P/L: +205.33 pts

Merrimack, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 7.40 Kempton (4 PLACES)

Merrimack has been weak in the betting today, but he's able to race off a pound lower mark than when finishing second at Chelmsford (6f) on his latest start, when although no match for the winner who was well backed and stormed clear from off the pace, the selection's effort might have wanted marking up considering he did plenty of running from a tricky draw to help force the pace and seemed to do well to hang on for second place.

He has to prove that he can be effective at this venue too but he hasn't had many chances on Polytrack and hopefully he can give another good account here, with Sean Levey, who rode him for the first time at Chelmsford, retaining the ride.

Well done George . Hope you double up.