Well done again George, don't really look at Newcastle very often so didn't see race or hang around for it, but appears selection won easily, vwd. A £200 profit over a year is excellent going, can't recall if it's level stakes or what but still exceptional form analysis.

excellent stuff George

..... (+216.2 Pts) .....

..  ..

Thanks again for the kind words.

I said in my little write-up yesterday that Ann Duffield was on the RP's cold list, but she was actually in good company because so too were the Gosdens and the O'Neills, training partnerships which had both gone 27 runners without a winner and not had at least 25% of their runners placed in the previous two weeks, though the Gosdens had in fact had a winner the previous evening at Chelmsford but after the paper had gone to print.

I'm having to concede defeat today because the two I had cases for are shorter in the betting than I was anticipating and one of them in particular, with poor recent form figures, has more than halved in price.

Good luck today.

Cheers PHS.
Good luck today.

Cowardofthecounty, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 1.30 Longchamp

Cowardofthecounty is of a little interest here now he belatedly has the chance to race again on ground with (hopefully) some dig in it. He impressed on his debut back in April at the Curragh (6f, soft-heavy) when he did well to overcome greenness and win going away from Whistlejacket, and for all Ballydoyle 2YOs can improve plenty for their debuts, the subsequent Group 1 winner was well-backed and looked to know his job.

Perhaps Cowardofthecounty hasn't gone on as might have been expected given the immense promise of that debut win, but he appeared to find it all happening too quickly on faster ground in the Coventry and in the circumstances wasn't disgraced in finishing 7th and under 2L behind the winner Rashabar, who also runs here.

It could be his limitations have already been exposed as he did win a Group 3 on ground described as good and in a time inside Racing Post standard when winning a 7f Group 3 from Houquetot (who has since won a Group 3) at Deauville in August, so it's not as though he can't run to a decent level on a sound surface, and either side of this he failed to get competitive in Group races back at the Curragh.

The selection has enough to find on official ratings with the best of these but interesting to see if being back on an easier surface can be the catalyst for an improved showing.

Havana Rose, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 2.50 Ayr

I'm going to give another chance to Havana Rose who was selected when she ran over C/D nine days ago, when I wrote:

Havana Rose's rating has fallen to a mark 13lb lower than when a good second at Pontefract (6f, g-s) last October, on what turned out to be her final turf run for Edward Bethell. She's mainly been campaigned on the all-weather since, and her three turf runs for her current trainer haven't been great, but she was given a two-month break in the summer during which time she underwent wind surgery and might have needed her return to action at Newcastle (7f) three weeks ago, where she did offer some encouragement in keeping on from off the pace into mid-division.

She finished behind a couple of today's rivals but perhaps the race didn't entirely go her way as she was keen enough early and then at a crucial stage found the outsider, who had gone tearing off in front, falling back into her lap. How much closer she might have finished it's hard to say, and I wonder if she might ideally be suited by a stiff 6f given she won over that trip at Carlisle as a juvenile and then there was the good effort at Pontefract on her final start for previous connections, but a chance is taken each-way at the prices, even though she's not well in here as she's due to drop 2lb.

Drawn To Dream, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.10 Bath

After Drawn to Dream had run well in a 14f handicap at Royal Ascot on her stable debut (when she didn't finish far behind Lmay, to whom she was conceding 9lb), I wondered if she might be one for the Cesarewitch given she was a 2m4f Listed winner in Germany on soft ground, and Jamie Osborne has won the major handicap with a filly previously, but that seemingly wasn't the plan and she turns up here in this 14f Listed race for fillies and mares.

The selection hasn't built on that encouraging start for new connections in four starts since, but it's possible to make excuses with one thing and another, having been turned out again quickly at Royal Ascot, then had two starts over 12f on quick ground which was probably sharp enough for her, and last time didn't face an easy task in a conditions race against Quickthorn at Salisbury (14f, g-s).

Drawn To Dream has been very weak in the betting this morning, but isn't out of this on official ratings, and while she has to prove herself on heavy ground, she shouldn't fail for lack of stamina.

Mini Magna, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 3.45 York (5 PLACES)

Mini Magna is just a play at the prices. He finished 4th of 14 in the 3YO handicap over C/D last month which was won by Duran (whom he meets on 5lb better terms for 1.5L), with Vince L'amour in third place. Both the selection and Vince L'amour might have been slightly disadvantaged racing more towards the centre as it did seem on that rain-hit card that there was an advantage in challenging closer to the stands-rail.

This is tougher for all three of them as it's a slightly higher grade and open to older horses too, but at around five times the price of his old rivals, Mini Magna looks worth chancing each-way with five places on offer.

Never Cry Never, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 6.30 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Never Cry Never is of a little interest back at Dundalk as he ran out a decisive winner of a 6f maiden here last November in a contest that produced comparatively the best time on the card. The selection left Fozzy Stack after and wasn't seen again for over nine months, and he hasn't offered much in two starts on turf for his current yard over 5/6f.

There's clearly a bit to be taken on trust here given the absence and subsequent poor runs on turf, and he has to prove that he can be effective at 7f, but hopefully a return to this surface can prompt a better effort.

Moltophino, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.25 Naas (4 PLACES)

A couple of good efforts from Moltophino when a visor was first applied, finishing second of 13 at Navan (6f, good) in August to Transcendental (whom he meets on 8lb  better terms for that 3.75L defeat), and last month when finishing 4th of 9 at Cork (6f, g-f), where he disputed the lead until well inside the final furlong before dropping to 4th place, with Collective Power behind him in fifth place (who's now 3lb worse off).

The two seemingly disappointing runs since with the visor left off are easy enough to forgive as he was poorly drawn in a big field at the Curragh (6f, good), and last time out when stepped up to a mile back at Cork (yielding), he was held up in a race where it paid to be ridden prominently and he didn't get a clear run up the straight either.

He is eligible for weaker races than this one, and he has the highest draw to deal with (though being drawn high on the sprint course here this season has sometimes looked an advantage), but the visor goes back on and he looks worth chancing at decent odds given he still looked in form last time at Cork.

Surrey Fire, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 5.05 York (5 PLACES)

Surrey Fire looks an interesting runner on this belated second start on turf. He shaped with plenty of promise on his debut at Nottingham (8.5f, soft) last October when finishing second to Going The Distance, who has won both his starts this season including the King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) at Royal Ascot and is now rated 101.

The selection is out of a Cesarewitch winner and one might have thought he'd be one for middle distances and beyond on grass this season but he's been kept to the all-weather for this three starts, winning a 10f maiden at Lingfield on the second of them, and back there for his handicap debut over 12f for his latest start, he didn't see his race out having pulled hard.

He's still a colt and could do with settling better now dropped back in trip to 10.5f, but's he's unknown quantity in this sphere who retains the potential to do better.

Nice place there WD

Cheers Cobs.

LOL, long day today. Still getting over Dinons being nutted at Hexham...

That's really sad news about Going the Distance. He was a really nice type.

No Surrender, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 4.58 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

No Surrender's only previous run at Newcastle (12.5f) back in May doesn't look very good given he could only finish 7th of 12 and beaten 22 lengths, however, the bare form doesn't tell the whole story as in a competitive handicap he had been up on the pace with Fairbanks (who would go on to win a valuable heritage handicap at Newmarket's July meeting), who had set a strong gallop and kept on relentlessly with the field strung out behind him, and the selection was still in second place under 2f out before weakening out of it, perhaps stamina being an issue.

The selection hasn't been great in three starts since but 12f might have stretched hime again at Lingfield, then had a wide trip at Chelmsford (10f), and last time out at Redcar (10f, good) he didn't shape too badly in finishing 4th of ten considering he was caught away from the far rail.

He returns to Gosforth Park off an 11lb lower mark than for that previous 12.5f course run, today's 10f trip can suit better, with Callum Rodriguez taking over in the plate and having just his 6th ride for the yard (1-5).

Transitioning, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.03 Leicester

Transitioning has been easy enough to back this morning and this doesn't look easy against mainly older opposition on what promises to be quite demanding ground, plus it has to be hoped that his stands-side draw doesn't prove to be a disadvantage, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price as his latest effort on soft ground at Chester (7.5f) probably wanted marking up considering he'd been plenty keen enough but still fared best of the prominent racers in a contest where the first three home had occupied the rear three positions initially in the race, but the selection only lost second place around half-a-furlong out before fading to finish fourth.

The selection had been absent for two months prior to that so hopefully he's not as fresh this time, is able to race off the same mark, and Jason Watson who had won on him on his previous start over that course and distance when the ground was good to soft, is back in the plate.

Saoirses Lulaby, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 7.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Saoirses Lulaby is of a little interest on her form at this course in the final quarter of last year when she finished in the first four in maximum field handicaps on three of her four starts over 7f / one mile, one of which included the only time she's been ridden by Chris Hayes, who takes the ride here. The concern is that she then had a winter break and returned in March with two dismal efforts, and she's been absent since, so her wellbeing and fitness have to be taken on trust, but if she does return in the form she was in last backend then there's a case to be made.

Her yard has gone 80 runners and 280 days without a winner so perhaps there's been a stable form issue, but they have had horses run okay of late including Mint Man, who's a short-priced favourite for the finale on this evening's card. Another concern is her draw in three if there's any advanatage in coming stands-side as there can be here, but a chance is taken each-way at big odds with four places on offer.

Polling Day, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 7.00 Wolverhampton

Polling Day's only previous start over C/D came back in February when rated 13lb higher and it was an effort that might have wanted marking up, having missed the break, then done plenty of running out wide to get into a prominent position in what was a well-run contest, was keen enough in doing so, and although no match for the winner (who has won twice since), he only lost second place inside the final furlong before finishing in fourth. The second and third have both been placed in competitive handicaps subsequently.

The selection has had his chances since without winning which included a spell over hurdles, but has only raced twice on the all-weather since, when never competitive in a valuable handicap on Lingfield's Good Friday card, and last-time-out in a London Series Qualifier at Kempton (11f) where he didn't run too badly in finishing 6th of 13.

He's a 6YO now who's evidently had his issues having been absent 941 days after winning his first two starts on the AW for the Gosdens, and has bled from the nose on at least one occasion since joining Archie Watson, but he's only had the eight Flat starts and this looks a little easier dropped slightly in grade off his reduced mark.

Zarabanda, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 2.50 Longchamp

Zarabanda looked a mare at the top of her game when winning three weeks ago at Hamilton (9f, soft) having travelled well throughout before readily coming clear from under two furlongs out with the opposition strung out behind her. The second has since run well in a competitive York handicap, and the fourth was the good yardstick Faylaq, who had won a class 2 handicap at the St Leger meeting on his previous start, admittedly over a more suitable trip.

The selection's latest win was a career-best on RPRs, though her revised official rating still leaves her with a few pound to find with the best of these and she has come up short when tried previously at Listed level, but if she's in the same form as last time then she can be at least a frame contender, with Christophe Soumillon taking the ride.

Unlucky there George, fine margins...

A few frustrating ones of late on the thread and that was one of them.

And her Hamilton handicap form has worked out because the one who had a finished a clear second to her, Austrian Theory, who has been able to race of a 2lb lower mark in two starts since including last time at York when perhaps the race didn't pan out well for him, came out today and beat a progressive 3YO.

Groovy Baby, who traded at a low of 1.1, gave it a good shot from the front against the short-priced fav, and rallied once headed inside the final half-furlong, but the winner had a bit too much class for her.

The market got it right regarding the hidden class rise for Exponista, who was against mainly male opposition on this occasion, and although she wasn't disgraced in being beaten three lengths, that was only good enough to finish 7th. She is eligible for slightly lower grades and may find easier opportunities back against her own sex.

2024 Running P/L: +199.77 pts

Unfortunately a couple of shockers this evening.

Sexy Rexy, who proved easy enough to back, wasn't badly positioned but couldn't quicken for toffee when pulled out, and even though she was trying to keep on, was probably held for a place when being badly squeezed out inside the final furlong. On this evidence she probably needs a more even gallop or setting the fractions herself.

They couldn't give Bay Of Australia away in the betting, eventually being sent off at 32 on here. He had a wide trip and faded right out of it in the home straight. He's eligible for 0-55s, or even 0-52s if he gets dropped 3lb for this, and perhaps he'll run a better race when the market vibes aren't so negative.

2024 Running P/L: +195.77 pts