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George's 2024 Selection Thread
George's 2024 Selection Thread
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Surrey Force (12-1) was dropped in from his wide draw on this step up in trip, and he looked unlucky not to finish closer than third as he was travelling fine from some way out but had to wait for a clear run before running on well towards the inner. It was frustrating as it was starting to look as though challenging down the centre / outer was no bad thing as the ground was getting poached towards the inner, and he was drawn widest.
Realt Na Ri was another to be dropped in but not sure those tactics are ideal for her because when she second at Leopardstown she was kept close to the pace and all she did was stay on, and she just didn't have the gears to get involved here from off the pace. Also the times suggested they'd done a 'good' job with the watering which probably didn't help her chance either. 2024 Running P/L: +163.05 pts |
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Granite Bay, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 5.30 Listowel
Granite Bay was improving in May with wins over 10f (Cork, good) and 12f (Roscommon, good) so it was a bit of a concern that he wasn't seen again for over three months, but he returned to the latter course (12f, soft) three weeks ago with an effort that probably wanted marking up considering he wasn't done any favours at the start and then did plenty of running in a prominent position in a race where the first two emerged from the rear and might have been at an advantage challenging away from the inside rail, before fading to finish 4th, with El Regalo (patiently ridden) behind him in fifth. It was quickest of the three 12f races on the card, which included the maiden won by Rosso (who carried 3lb more). It has to be hoped that Granite Bay doesn't bounce off that effort and he has his stamina to prove for 14f, but presumably he'll be ridden with a tad more restraint this time, appears to be verstaile regarding ground and hopefully is still open to improvement after just six starts. Tiger Trap, 1pt EW @ 5-1, 8.00 Newcastle Tiger Trap has been shaping as though he has a bigger effort in him at this track having shaped okay over 7f here last November when probably not helped by racing down the centre without cover but keeping on okay, and again over that distance when returned here for his latest start when catching the eye making some late headway under Hollie Doyle, who was riding him for the first time and retains the ride on this drop in grade. All five of Tiger Trap's siblings, which include three-time course winner Young Tiger (also trained by Tom Tate), won races but at sprint trips, so he does have to prove his stamina for a stiff mile, even if this becomes tactical, but that latest effort did suggest he's worth a try over it. |
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Nice one,George...now for the double..good luck..
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Thanks lead on, unfortunately the other one was a disappointment.
It could be Tiger Trip is both useless and tripless, but if he did have an excuse, like the favourite Balqaa who also ran poorly, is that they didn't get any cover on a night when times were on the slow side and there was reportedly a "slight" headwind, and in that particular race where the winner and 100-1 third were held up with cover before being produced to challenge. Against that though, there were horses on the card who didn't get any cover but still won or ran well. 2024 Running P/L: +169.45 pts |
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Wd George
 gl .... |
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Nice pick George
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Thanks Virgin & Cobs, good luck today.
Sassy Glory, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 8.00 Wolverhampton Sassy Glory is by Oasis Dream but there seems little doubt about her stamina for 12f judging from her latest effort when finishing second of 15 at Thirsk on good to soft, for which she is due to go up 2lb, when she fared much the best of those ridden prominently, with the first three finishing clear. Her first attempt at the trip had come on her previous start at this track in a slightly stronger grade when finishing 4th of 8 having been held up, but it could be forcing tactics suit her best so hopefully she's given another prominent ride, now her stamina appears to be more assured. Areana, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES) Areana's fitness has to be taken on trust returning here from nearly eight months off and starting out for a new trainer, but she remains of interest as she had suggested she was sure to be winning races, particularly so based on her handicap debut at Tipperary (12.5f, good) in May of last year when finishing second of seventeen from a wide draw, when she was keen enough, didn't get the clearest of runs and still looked green before running on well. I suppose it's therefore disappointing she didn't get her head in front after and she didn't always convince with her finishing effort when tried at this track but still ran creditably to finish not too far away in four fourteen-runner handicaps at 10.5 / 12f. Areana's rookie trainer hasn't had loads of runners but he's won with one of three horses he's run on the Flat, and with one of the five he's run over jumps, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on with this aquisition who has shown winning potential. Rock City Falls, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 8.30 Wolverhampton (3 PLACES) Rock City Falls shaped with definite promise in a couple of his qualifying runs on the AW back in the spring, notably so on his second start at Southwell (one mile) when finishing fourth in what was quite a well-run contest. The winner Invincible Aura won off a reduced mark back on the AW last month and runs this evening in the 7.00, the second Castle In The Sand hasn't run on the AW since but has run well in defeat on turf when the ground has been good, whilst the third Blake has been a big improver when encountering soft ground. The selection again didn't shape too badly on his third run for a mark when finishing fourth at Wolverhampton (8.5f) in a race that was won by his heavily-backed stablemate Grey Cuban, who has won three times since on turf and is now rated 98. Rock City Falls hasn't been great in two handicaps on turf since returning from a three-month break but the Ffos Las (12f, g-s) contest he ran in turned out to be a warm heat as the winner was Night Breeze who has won twice since including a Racing League handicap, and the runner-up was the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Godsend, who had won his previous start and has since completed a hat-trick of wins over longer trips. The fourth has since run well on the all-weather against a James Owen-trained stable switcher and rapid improver, and the sixth subsequently bolted up in a Nottingham handicap over further. His latest start at Hamilton can possibly be excused on account of heavy ground. The Hugo Palmer-trained colt has to show he can be competitive in a handicap, but his yard was in great form at Newmarket yesterday, the season's leading apprentice Sean D Bowen is booked, a tongue-tie is added to the cheekpieces he wore last time, and a further drop in the weights allows him into this 0-66 now tried again on Tapeta. |
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GL George, Sassy Glory comes out well on my figures for the run at Thirsk and the CD run, so I will be on ew
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Good luck to us both, Cobs.
That was a long write-up for one of mine regarding Rock City Falls, and after posting I realised I hadn't mentioned the step up in trip to 14f. Oh well, suffice I say I hope he improves for it! |
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Sassy Glory went from the front and traded odds-on in the run when looking in command turning into the home straight but was caught by a couple inside the final furlong. She ran right to the line to finish close-up and on this evidence may even stay further.
Areana ran well on her return to action to finish third having moved nicely into contention. She perhaps just lacks a change of gear on the surface and may ideally be suited by grass, on which she's only raced the three times and included that promising Tipperary effort. They crawled round in Rock City Falls's race but it wouldn't have mattered how it panned out because he went out like a light in the home straight. He'd been very weak in the betting close to the off. 2024 Running P/L: +169.75 pts |
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Tennessee Stud, 1pt EW @ 15-2 , 2.35 Curragh
Tennessee Stud progressed nicely from his satisfactory Galway debut (8.5f, soft) when running on strongly to see off a Ballydoyle odds-on shot at Tipperary (9f, good), who had finished in front of his stablemate Trinity College when making his debut at Leopardstown. The Tipperary form received a boost when the fourth home, another Ballydoyle runner who was beaten over 12L when making his debut, took a step forward to win a Gowran maiden. The selection is back in trip to a mile and on easier ground, and Declan McDonogh who's been aboard for both his starts is now on the seemingly Ballydoyle second-string in this, but I thought there was plenty to like about his win, and hopefully he's going to grab the rail here and prove a tough opponent to pass. Boann, 1pt EW @ 16-1 , 7.00 Chelmsford (4 PLACES) Boann's recent form figures don't inspire much confidence but I think she ran better than her finsihing position suggested on her latest start at Kempton (6f) in a slightly higher grade, when from a tricky draw she endured quite a tough trip in a well-run contest in which the first three home had inside trips, but she remained prominent until over a furlong out before gradually fading to finish 6th. The second home, who has gone well at Kempton previously, has since won on turf. The draw again hasn't been kind and she has to prove her effectiveness at this course (finished well held in one previous start here but it came in a Listed race and she still recorded an RPR of 76), but her mark has dropped to 69, which is 11lb lower than the mark she started the season on, Kaiya Fraser takes off 3lb, and this should be run at a good clip so hopefully she can slot into a nice position. |
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Tennessee Stud (9-1) ran well to finish second. It didn't pan out tactically as I'd hoped because Wayne Lordan was determined to lead on Trinity College and so Dylan Browne McGonagle just sat to the outer of him, and then couldn't match the winner for pace before keeping on well. Perhaps in hindsight he should have got busier sooner given the manner of the Tipperary win in order to make full use of his proven stamina.
Boann soon overcame a tricky draw under the in-form Kaiya Fraser to sit in behind the pace, which held up well in the only race on the card to be run inside the RP standard time, but the selection found disappointingly little inside the final furlong. She was declared to run wearing a tongue tie but there might have been an issue there as her tongue was lolling out, so might have had an excuse. 2024 Running P/L: +169 pts |
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Havana Rose, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 4.00 Ayr
Havana Rose's rating has fallen to a mark 13lb lower than when a good second at Pontefract (6f, g-s) last October, on what turned out to be her final turf run for Edward Bethell. She's mainly been campaigned on the all-weather since, and her three turf runs for her current trainer haven't been great, but she was given a two-month break in the summer during which time she underwent wind surgery and might have needed her return to action at Newcastle (7f) three weeks ago, where she did offer some encouragement in keeping on from off the pace into mid-division. Havana Rose is now eligible for weaker races than this one, but she's probably better on turf than the AW, so might be worth chancing at the odds off her reduced mark with that recent comeback run behind her. Dash Gordon, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.00 Newcastle (4 PLACES) Dash Gordon might have won at Yarmouth (5f, g-f) in July on his fourth start had he consented to run in a straight line, and although that was just a 5-runner 0-50 classified stakes, the winner has run well in defeat since and the second, the prolific Sir Rodneyredblood, has won since back on the all-weather. The selection has twice since shown (including last time in first-time blinkers which are quickly discarded) that his propensity to hang left is probably not now down to greenness but is an actual issue with him, and so with that in mind, while being drawn one on the straight course at Newcastle might not usually be preferable, in his case it's probably for the best, and I hope that Lewis Edmunds, who rides him for the first time, keeps to the outer and lets him to go to the far side if he hangs left again, for all that might not be ideal depending on how the track is playing. He does need to prove he can be effective on the all-weather, but this half-brother to seven-time winner Song Of The Isles, has shown enough to suggest he can win at this lowly-level (even when racing from out of the handicap as he is here) when not compromising his chance by hanging left. |
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Nice price George
wd gl .... |
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Excellent
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Well done George, just seen your thread.!
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well done gb nice hit
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WD,George....fair gamble too..
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Nice boost for the running total...excellent, George
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Cheers all.
The trainer said afterwards that Dash Gordon hadn't been hanging left at home, so maybe it was just down to greenness / inexperience, and there was no sign of it tonight as he showed a good attitude under pressure to prevail. It was well punted close to the off, so hopefully the yard landed some nice bets, particularly as the trainer said he's having to pack up. As for Havana Rose, she didn't run too badly despite finishing only 6th of the 9 runners, beaten 3L, having been keen early, and might have finished a bit closer but for finding herself running directly behind the outsider, which had gone tearing off in front, when that one unsurprisingly started to weaken. 2024 Running P/L: +191 pts |
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Well done George. Another great winner.
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Serious gamble that, hope you were the one smashing the price. Superb.
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Great pick George, hope you were on early, WD
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WD GB
Smashed in |
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Don't look in often George, usually after you've picked a nice winner, still going well i see, keep it going, well done.
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well done george , from the one box too
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Thanks again for the positive comments.
Good luck today. Dark Kestrel, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 6.10 Newcastle (4 PLACES) Dark Kestrel has yet to win at Newcastle in six attempts but has made the frame in three of them, and although those placings came at the minimum trip, of his two attempts here over this evening's distance of 6f, he wasn't disgraced in the first of them which came in an amateur riders' contest last November, considering he appeared to go off too hard in front; and on his most recent start, which was his second run back following an 102-day absence, he caught the eye getting no luck up the stands-rail. He has won over 6f on turf at Doncaster (when trained by the Gosdens), and he's only a pound above the mark he won off in May at Wolverhampton (5f, second and third have won since), so while it's a concern that the market appears dismissive of his chance, a punt is taken each-way at the odds as that latest C/D run did suggest he was in some sort of form, and his yard have been among the winers of late. Ten Commitments, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 7.00 Chelmsford (4 PLACES) Ten Commitments never figured on his latest start in the Legends' race at the St Leger festival, but he'd been running well prior to that and he's of particular interest here based on his latest all-weather start which came at Kempton (7f) in early August, where he endured a wide trip from a tricky draw and in the circumstances did well to only lose second place inside the last half-furlong before finishing third, clear of the rest. The form worked out well with the winner, second, fourth and fifth having won since. The selection didn't excel in two previous runs here but they came at the minimum trip following a break and when qualifying for a mark. He hasn't had many chances on the AW and is able to race off a 2lb lower mark than for that good Kempton effort. |
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Nice place,George...
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Cheers lead on.
Got lucky there perhaps with Dark Kestrel (33-1 SP) as it looked as though he'd been done for 4th place by the finisher on the far side, but as it turned out he did get the nod for that position by a nose. However, that was where my luck ran out because Ten Commitments was dropped in on the rail and was always going to need a lot of luck from that position, particularly given how that track tends to play, and just when it looked as though he was going to run on into a place, the gaps closed on him. 2024 Running P/L: +194.6 pts |
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WD GB
Churning it |
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Thanks Mad'.
Good luck today. Azucena, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 8.00 Newcastle Azucena had started the year off with a creditable third over C/D in April, but has been seemingly disappointing in just three starts since, but two of them came on turf on which she's only managed one place from nine starts (and for which has an 8lb lower official rating), and the other came here following a 113 day break during which time she had undergone wind surgery, with the run possibly being needed. Her trainer is on the cold list having gone 85 days and 31 runners without a winner, so there has to be a query as to whether Azucena will be in the form to take advantage of a mark which is 11lb below what she won off in a C/D nursery two years ago, and is 5lb lower than for that encouraging reappearance run, but she's down in grade now returned to the AW and looks worth chancing each-way at the odds given her course record of one win and three places from seven starts. |
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Flew in GB
WD |
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Wd George
gl .... |
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Terrific stuff, well done
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Thanks Mad', Virgin & Cobs
2024 Running P/L: +216.2 pts |
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Average 5 points a week this year,pretty good George.
Discipline,patience,good form study.keep it up mate.top thread. |
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vwd george great tippin!
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On a roll George. Well done.
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Running out of superlatives, George....fandabidozi!
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