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Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
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Morning Laurie,
Thanks. A basic explanation yes, but 'brilliant' is far too flattering, most engineers would know how to respond. Your notion that passengers would fall and the spacecraft would continue in flight is not so illogical, i think many non-engineers would think the same, but space is different and Isaac Newton knew this back in time, hence his laws of gravity and motion. In his first law, he basically infers that an entity(s) in motion (i.e. the spacecraft and occupants in flight) remain at a constant speed unless subjected to an opposing force. In your example of the car travelling at 60 mph and an occupant that wanted to jump out, it's air pressure and gravity that are the forces, assisted by lack of brain cells  . It's the same with an aircraft, but not so in space, so the passengers remain at same velocity as the craft.Newtons first law of motion also applies to some of the horses i back, only in this case, the opposable force is often a thick Birch fence.  I mentioned Astronaut spacewalks earlier and was curious what was the longest, so i googled it. Over 7 hours, that surprised me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_International Space Station spacewalks |
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My 'O' level physics teacher in the 60's taught us about this by getting us to think about what happened when we jumped off the platform of a bus before it had completely come to a halt at our stop - i.e. you end up running alongside the bus as you hit the ground even though you were standing still on the bus.
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Exactly Alan
The moment you step off the bus, and prior to hitting the ground, you are travelling the same speed as the bus. Not the smartest thing to do, but we've all done it |
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Hence the saying “hit the ground running”?
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This thread has got very intellectual!
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Just a final ask to show how I don't get it yet.
I understand on a space walk where a craft is going around circling the earth, outside the earth's gravity, just like satellites go around the earth. But in this film a spaceship is being driven by engines, excuse me definition, from the earth to another planet at something like half the speed of light. The journey takes 120 years. On its journey it meets asteroids either standing still or going in the opposite direction and they crash into each other. Does the spacecraft not create a wake or anything when cutting through the air? That is where I am confused with spacewalking. Sorry guys. This is the last question. |
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Laurie
No worries and bear in mind this is Hollywood you are referring to. Half the speed of light is almost 150,000 km/second so imagine the power required to propel the craft. 120 years @ 50% speed of light ? I'm not even going to calculate the distance and humans couldn't withstand the acceleration forces. Asteroids are always moving (think Newtons first law). Rockets in space don't cut through air in space as it's a vacuum, there isn't any 'air' as we know it, but there are gases. You can't even talk in space. It wouldn't need an asteroid to hit a craft and render it damaged, a very small object travelling at speed could do it. Spacewalking with a satellite in orbit is not an issue, check out the link i posted, it's a normal procedure for astronauts. A rocket travelling at 35,000 mph to outer space (not in orbit) is a different matter. If the rocket veered slightly, any space walkers would be lost forever as they would be travelling at speed in a straight line. Where are the cards tomorrow Happysandwich Correct Stewart No way, it's very basic stuff, it's enough effort just to post a losing selection. |
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Lay Post
Market Rasen 4.15 - Mixed Wave A 6 year old Gentlewave gelding trained by Pam Sly in Cambridgeshire. Dam was a 5 time winner with a highest rating of 108 over fences. A couple of offspring, but only one win (by the selection) in the form. A couple of bumper runs followed by 5 over hurdles without showing any form of note; even the run in 3rd he was last of the finishers, beaten over 18L. Made favourite for his chase debut run, but could be forgiven as the ground was heavy (receiving a lot of weight). Improved next time out to win over a tad shorter than this afternoon, but off a lowly mark of 74, receiving no less than 28 lb/20 lb from the places respectively, and had run of the race. To be fair the runner-up has won since. Had a tendency to jump left that would be a concern here. Didn't run well in 3 runs on the track in 2021. Raised 5 lb to 79. A 5 runner field, all in with a winning chance and only 5 lb separating them on RPR. The risk is a lightly raced chaser who may improve, but i think there is sufficient reasoning to be a lay selection. Lay @ 3.05 Good luck all. 21-Feb-23 09:38:26 16:15 Market Rasen Mixedwave - 3m Nov Hcap Chs Betfair Bet ID 1:297053339947 | Matched: 21-Feb-23 09:40:48 Lay 3.00 25.00 -- 50.00 25.00 Matched 21-Feb-23 08:59:29 16:15 Market Rasen Mixedwave - 3m Nov Hcap Chs Betfair Bet ID 1:297050920336 | Matched: 21-Feb-23 09:35:40 Lay 3.10 25.00 -- 52.50 25.00 Matched |
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Thank you ANDREW
 G/L Everyone |
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Hi Andrew, I just checked the film and he did say they were travelling at 50% of light speed and that it would take longer to turn around than to go on. Anyway, thank you for the info it is really fascinating. And GL with the thread today and into the future. You may not be doing 50% of light speed but you can turn things around when necessary.
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Had my first road accident at thirteen.
Let go of the hand rail of the bus while it was overtaking an old geezer on a bicycle and run into the back of him. |
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Good afternoon Guys,
Thanks for the posts. I was working remote from home yesterday so plenty of time to find a lay selection, not that it did any good considering the result, i wish i had concentrated on work instead. I was happy to see the odds move (7/4 to 11/4) but we all know drifters win on occasion. Made most, jumped well and had the field off the bridle from 2 out, winning by 6L. Not much to be said really, no excuse, i simply called it wrong. PL status up later (losing thread to date this year) I was tempted to type another lay post this afternoon (when you fall off a bike etc) but decided not to. The horse in question was Grizzly James (4.52 Ludlow) an in-and-out performer, down in class and ratings, but needs to do better than his penultimate run over CD and on ground that could be lively. Connections are probably frustrated with this one after his win in a French conditions hurdle; regressed in ratings from 123 to 98. Joint top weight. Might win in a canter, but i certainly wouldn't want to be lumping on at the odds. Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all. Laurie 50% speed of light travel is possible in Hollywood, but actually impossible. Mind you, who knows technology in 100,000 years. No worries, happy to help, just don't get me started on aerospace. Having said that, i'm off to Linköping on Friday, so during transit i can type some B737 Max pointers that may/may not be in the public domain. What date are you flying ? (PM or email if preferred not to say on here). Happysandwich I assume you ran into him, not the bus. |
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I assume you ran into him, not the bus ran into him.
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Andrew - this game really can destroy you at times. Being successful is often more about psychology than actual knowledge.
I always read, and enjoy, your posts and look to see if I agree with them. I felt yesterdays lay reasoning was perfectly sound but so did todays option but of course you only put up yesterdays as a an official bet - presumably you would have gone for todays if it hadn’t been for yesterdays reverse. You often put up lengthy reasoning for potential lays but seldom make them official bets. Trying to cherry pick the right ones hasn’t been working for the last year or more. I wonder if you had just put them all up as official thread bets how the profit and loss would have been affected - I expect it would have been profitable. |
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An interesting going report for Kempton on Saturday:
" It walks quiet dead, but it should dry a bit before Saturday." The Quiet Dead sounds like a 60's Hammer horror film. |
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Alan, just curious (nosy), is Fard ok?
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Been retired from racing and has been rehomed - I don't know the details though. His owner died and her son has taken her place and has a mare called Under The Twilight with the stable. Look out for her and my latest purchase, Eagle Court, at Wolverhampton on Mar 6th.
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Good afternoon Guys,
Yesterdays suggested lay Grizzly James (well backed 2/1) finished 5th of 6, never really looked like winning. Unclepuncle Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated. I total agree about putting up ALL lays to count for the PL, i actually mentioned this on my opening post in January, additionally, you are correct with respect to the psychology of betting. Going back in time i often had a good start to the year (14 successful lays in a row in 2018) so i was always ahead of the game in profit and didn't really need to think about the consequences if one went against me, or even a couple thereafter. Unfortunately, this wasn't the case last year, or this one where i did OK on day one, but then had 2 losers in a row and was therefore playing catch-up. From a financial perspective, this is not a real issue, and i've stated here before i rarely dwell on losses too much, but i hate getting a PL selection wrong (seriously) so i'm always more wary with the next selection. If the lay on Tuesday had been beaten, it's 100% i would have posted yesterdays, even though it was shorter odds. I'll bear the above in mind for the next selection. In the meantime i need a few winners in the naps table, less than a year ago i won the Premiership, now i'm struggling to stay in it.  Alan Thanks. Maybe the spirit of Christopher Lee has joined forces with Barney Clifford at Kempton. |
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Thank you. It's a funny old game, never even saw him (in the flesh) but thought of him as a friend. Was worried he might not have had a happy ending - but that sounds good (for him - even if not for her). I did notice Under the Twilight (and EC) and will watch with interest. Ta.
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P.S - Still not forgiven OM for that episode in the stalls at Ffos Las!
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Good morning all.
Not trying a lay today but have to put up a nice priced 20/1 certainty.  Enrilo in the Kempton 3.00 was 4th in the race last year beaten 3 lengths from the 3rd Our Power with whom he is 9lb better off this year, 14lb if you include the jockey claim. He is also 12lb better off with Cap Du Nord for 11 1/4 lengths. The jockey claims are somewhat negated except the jockey on the favourite has never ridden the horse before and never ridden at Kempton. Obviously the negative is the last two runs for Enrilo but he needs good ground which he will get today. Frankly this is a maximum bet for me currently 22/1 e/w with a few books although I was offered Only £9 e/w with PP, £1.38 e/w with Billies and 0 e/w with Sportsbook. I am happy taking 20's to get on. GL |
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Good morning, Andrew. This is something I cannot remember doing before but yesterday I met an old horseracing friend who was all over Brook Bay in the 5.20 Kempton. It looks a tough race to me but he was very confident.
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That 5:20 has three runners (including Brook Bay) sired by a horse called Affinisea, whose sole claim to fame was a win in a Roscommon maiden. Before working on that Kempton card today (I'm setting off there shortly), I'd never heard of him. Still not sure how he qualified for a job at stud, but buyers seem convinced.
If I'd paid £380,000 for a horse, I'd be pretty peeved to have it running in a two and half grand to the winner bumper. |
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Good morning Guys,
Currently in Stockholm City (arrived yesterday) and travelling down to Linköping after lunch. Trusty Good luck with your selection, not without a shout and a decent price. Laurie1 Thanks for passing the tip on. Connections obviously think it's useful considering the sale price. I will play both selections (small) but a couple i'm backing are Salmanino (4.10 Fairyhouse) and Quick Draw (4.45 Kempton) even though a couple that finished behind LTO are better off at the weights. Maybe more later when i'm on the train. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |
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Thanks Alan, didn't see your post earlier.
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Enrilo ran much better and very disappointing that being 14lb better off with Our Power, he couldn't finish in the first 3!
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Now you know why I never tip horses. I am quite happy leaving that to the Andrews in Sweden of this world.
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They are not tips just opinions. There is a difference.
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Brook Bay seems like a good example of the daft prices being paid for Irish point to point horses. Have a look at the film of the closing stages of his win supplied in the sale catalog - just click on the small picture and it will enlarge. The replay starts just before the 4th last fence, Brook Bay is in the middle of the leading trio:
https://www.goffsuk.com/sales-results/sales/tingle-creek-sale-at-sandown-park/10?a=1 How anybody can watch that and think 'I'll buy that whatever it costs' is beyond me. They appear to going no more than a good schooling pace until after the 2nd last and Brook Bay benefits from slow jumps at the last by his pursuers, one of whom is making ground again at the line. The second sold for £150k a week later. The sellers must be laughing at how easy it is to make a fortune, and the auctioneers aren't doing badly out of it either. |
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Good sunny morning Guys,
Thanks for the posts even though results didn't go as expected, although Trusty's selection was a longshot to be fair. My effort was abysmal, both unplaced, but i blame the travelling Laurie No worries and PHS makes a valid point. Changing topic, I will respond to emails tomorrow. My few bets were all small anyway, the only winner being Bristol City at 2.44. They will be much bigger odds on Tuesday against the FA Cup minnows, and our 12 match unbeaten run will probably come to an end. My only bet today is an EW on Gallyhill, 2.40 Naas (currently 8.40) who could improve for a return to the longer trip. Alan Thanks, how many times could you have typed a similar post, we've seen so many of these expensive P2P purchases run poorly. I should have studied bloodstock instead of aerospace. |
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Good afternoon Guys,
It's been almost a week since i posted on here, but i was in Linköping last weekend, returned to München on Monday, and workload is often an issue anyway. With respect to the latter i have to plan ahead as i want most, if not all of Cheltenham week in London, although attending the course is another story. I've only been to the Cheltenham festival once, albeit that long ago i may have been betting with White fivers. I wasn't overly enamoured with the GB/Irish cards today, but Kelso takes pride of place, a course i've never visited; we Cornish get nervous about travelling anywhere north of Newmarket. No surprise to see Charlie Appleby with a host of entries on the group card at Meydan and Al Suhail (3.35) looks a class above rivals and should win. He was a beaten fav (3rd) behind Lord Glitters in the race last year, but will be fitter this time around after winning over CD in January. Mind you, all the odds against has long gone, i wish i had seen 2.4 earlier. I think Dan Skelton can make the long journey to Kelso worthwhile with at least one winner in Le Milos (3.35). Concedes 4lb to The Shunter (same mark of 152) but i sense this one could be running to simply finish the course in order to qualify for the Grand National. Irrespective of this, i feel the favourite (2.20) is the better horse anyway, he acts on the course (won over hurdles here) and has improved for the switch to Dans stable. Staying at Kelso, in the Morebattle handicap hurdle (1.50) you could pick half the field and not get the winner, but my selection is Benson, trained locally by Sandy Thompson who will probably cycle there. Up 6lb for the win LTO and needs a best performance to win off 134, but he's another who has improved since changing stables. The sharp course will not be an issue and although all 5 wins have come on right-handed tracks, i wouldn't take this as a negative. Odds of 15 and 3.60 4/TBP are fair. I may have a lay selection later. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |
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Thank you ANDREW G/L
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Brilliant Andrew...got on Benson...superb!
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YYYYYIIIPPPEEEE THANK YOU ANDREW 16
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well done Andrew.
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Terrific call
WD Andrew |
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VWD Andrew a winner like that does you the world of good..
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Well done Andrew,
It used to be Isabel on a bicycle – now it’s Sandy in the saddle. |
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VWD Andrew
I did Place only |