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Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
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WD Alan
WD with the shortie Andrew |
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Thanks gents - don't think she'll run him right handed again, but if she does, we'll know what to do. I can see a couple of possible options for him in April, back on l-h tracks. The grandly named Sussex Champion Chase, which is just a 2m 4f handicap round Plumpton on Easter Monday. Or a 2M 4F handicap at Ayr on the day before the Scottish National. Both of those races are worth £50k and both would allow him a break of at least five weeks.
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Good evening Guys
When i looked through the cards this morning i thought Mustaffiz (8.00 Chelmsford) was a potential lay selection for this thread, or on a short list at least. It's probably the best backed horse of the day now so i may have swerved one, but it's short enough at 11/8. I appreciate it's a weak race and he has a plum draw, but it could work against him if he doesn't get the rail. Sir Rodneyredblood, Thankthelord and Peiclivity often show early pace and could cut across. I'm not sure the drop back to 5f is a positive either. It may have been laid out to win tonight, but unless i had stable information i certainly wouldn't want to be lumping on and i'm laying it small regardless. Have a nice evening all. PHS Thanks Alan Thanks for the heads-up. |
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WD Andrew
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Mustaffiz (8.00 Chelmsford) as low as 1.03 but defeated
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This thread P/L ever get posted?
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Good morning Guys,
One more day until the best NH festival on the planet, although some of our Irish friends may tend to disagree.  A few more hours in the office, then i will start commencing my journey over, although KLM certainly induced some nervousness last night and not for the first time during the past year. My original München-Schiphol flight has been cancelled, but they have re-booked me with Lufthansa to Frankfurt, then KLM to Amsterdam and another Bristol, all in the same evening (leaving 35 minutes earlier). Another flight in the loop, but it actually does me a favour as my original booking was such i had an early flight to Bristol tomorrow morning, but now i will arrive around 22.00 this evening, so less hassle. No Cheltenham hotel prices for me, i have a really good double room deal in a nice part of the city and all i need is a bed and en-suite anyway. A decent breakfast, then a short 38-minute trip up to Cheltenham Spa on the train. I can't wait. I haven't bothered looking at the cards today, but to save time tomorrow, i'm posting my selections for first day of the festival with a brief reasoning. I may post one of the lays tomorrow. 1.30 Supreme Hurdle Lay Facile Vega (3.85). Clearly talented, but last years bumper form isn't as strong as once thought and he's certainly headstrong. Weakened quickly before the last flight in his previous run, but he was being nudged along before then and although a fast pace has been mooted as a reason, i'm not entirely convinced. I think it's quite an open race, so i will back a stablemate and outsider Diverge for a small EW bet (19.0 for the win). 2.10 Arkle Chase Lay Jonbon (2.92). Although i've backed this one a few times, i never had him down as an Arkle winner and been against him in this race for some time. He didn't look like one beating a rival rated 23 lb inferior LTO, taking time to do it, i actually think he's more of a KG type. Maybe the best jumper in the field, but this is the best field he's taken on as a chaser and will be tested. I was at Leopardstown when El Fabiolo won last month and directly afterwards i sent a WhatsApp message to my racing friends stating 'there's your Arkle winner'. No reason to change my mind now (2.68) but Desert Dynamo is not out of it over this shorter trip. 2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase A minefield and my tentative EW selection is Nassalam (11.5 for the win) a horse i've followed like a Lemming (or should that be Lemon) as i'm convinced he will win a decent handicap one day, maybe tomorrow is the day. 3.30 Champion Hurdle Back Constitution Hill. Not much to be said really and the primary reason for my trip to Cheltenham. Has the potential to be an all-time great and i will be very surprised if he is beaten. I notice 4/11 is available with the books and 1.38 on here, in my opinion the best odds-on bet for some time. 4.10 Mares Hurdle Lay Honeysuckle (4.80). A wonderful mare over the years, but regressing and i can't see her retirement finale being a winning one. A strong field and a very open one, but i have a feeling we will see the real Brandy Love, forget her previous run. I will be backing her EW (7.60 for the win). 4.50 Boodles Handicap Hurdle Much like the Ultima, another minefield and my selection, albeit a tentative EW, is another Gary Moore runner, Perseus Way (16.0 for the win). 5.30 National Hunt Chase Gaillard Du Mesnil (2.06). In my opinion, quite possibly the best odds against shortie bet of the week apart from Lossiemouth. Much better class than these and i expect him to win with clear daylight. Good luck and have a nice Monday all. For those that are attending the meeting, enjoy and win plenty. PHS Thanks Steve PHS is correct. Given i have a lot of free time from Thursday morning, i will update the PL, but at the moment it's Red for the year. |
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Andrew, just a thought as you think GDM is such a good thing and as it's over 3m6fs have you thought about having a bet on the longest winning distance at the festival, might get a decentish price when the market has properly formed.
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Morning All,
I'll put up some thoughts on Cheltenham later, but I can tell you that Andrew and I will be at odds, as his best bets are my best lays! Anyway, before the main event, maybe a chance to make a few quid with a lay at Taunton this afternoon - Killaloan in the 4:00, currently trading at around 2.4. Easy to see why this is the case, as a C+D winner last time, trained by Nicholls and ridden by Cobden. But I remember watching that win in a maiden hurdle, thinking it was just about the worst race of that type run at Taunton this year and that you could count the number of actual triers in the field on one finger. Killaloan did nothing wrong, but the overall time was ordinary, the runner-up had been beaten out of sight on his previous two starts over hurdles and the third and fourth were more concerned with obtaining lenient handicap marks than they were with winning a maiden. The runner-up, Loop Head, runs in the last race at Taunton off a mark of 99, but there's no rush to back him - the third and fourth were given a mark of 95 after their runs. Clearly he could win, but I don't see a mark of 112 being lenient and this looks sure to be a more competitive event - i.e. some of the others will be trying! But the price is just too short. |
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Afternoon Stewart
Thanks, but winning distance is not a bet i play these days, pace has to be considered and the going can change during a meeting. I used to do the meeting spreads back in time, but not today. If i had to guess, i would plump for 8L or over. |
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Alan
Sorry, i didn't see your post when i was typing a response to Stewart, thanks for your Taunton input and good luck with the lay selection. I don't mind what you put up as a lay for tomorrow, as long as it's not CH |
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Thank you ANDREW g/l
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The Anorak, do you actually lay many horses now and if so is it mainly what you consider bad favs that you lay, gl with todays and can see why you might want to lay it, but i would say a horse can only beat what he's running against and using a time comparison with the C2 h'cap hurdle run 1/2 hr earlier wasn't a bad performance from Killaloan, the 2nd horse in the C2 carried similar weight to Killaloan and ran about 4.5 secs faster, that horse rated 128, 3rd was rated 130, Killaloan rated today 112.
They seemed to go a good clip in both races to my eye. |
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S R,
My spreadsheet for 2023 so far, shows 11 lays (6 successful) and 29 back bets. Yes, it's always short priced favs that I lay, usually where I can't separate the rest of the field to find a worthwhile win bet. If I make the decision to lay early enough, I normally put the reasoning up on here - obviously that's not worth doing if it's a last minute decision to lay. |
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You have some patience to have so few bets Alan, presume lays are about level or showing a slight loss if 5 of them won.
I find laying to be the hardest thing Pre race. |
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As it happens, the biggest lays have been the ones I got right. If you go back to the last page of the 2022 thread, you'll find me suggesting a lay of Bo Zenith, who was about 5/1 on at the time, SP 4/11. You can make a lot of money if you get that sort right and I collected four figures on that race. I also laid Energumene at 1.5 at Cheltenham ( a late decision) in the race moved from Ascot, so that was another decent win. So an overall profit - so far. Let's see what today brings!
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Short price lay = small liability…..
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Well done Alan, good to get the real shorties beaten, but don't tell Andrew!
 Good luck with todays Lay. |
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Re Jonbon ,at the Chelt preview AP mentioned he was working poorly
before the Warwick race Expecting a better run tomorrow |
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That was a quality ride by Cobden on a horse that didn't look to be enjoying conditions - getting the stands rail up the run-in always helps at Taunton.
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Unlucky Alan,i thought 2 out it was beaten but as you said Cobden for once gave it a ride.
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OK. moving on to one at Cheltenham and I offer these merely as one way of looking at the horses/races in question. I'm not sure at this time what bets, if any, I'll make myself.
Arkle Chase: If you watch the replay of El Fabiolo winning at Leopardstown, you’ll see a prime example of a horse that isn’t comfortable jumping on a left handed track. He shifts slightly right in the air at many of the fences and also gets in too close quite a few times as he tries to sort his feet out. At the fourth last, both things happen and he belts the fence half way up and does well not to fall. That he still managed to win says either he has a fantastic engine, or the other Irish 2M novices aren’t that good. But I don’t think he’ll get away with such a sloppy round of jumping at Cheltenham. Any tendency to shift right is costly on that tight left handed course and getting in close is likely to be punished at the downhill fences and the open ditches. Since Dysart Dynamo couldn’t beat him last time, that leaves Jonbon as the likely winner. He’s had nothing to beat in his two runs at Warwick, but showed true Grade 1 class at Sandown in between. Hard to argue with a horse whose only career defeat came at the hands of Constitution Hill. N H Chase: I’m not entirely convinced by the short priced favourite Gaillard Du Mesnil, but I am convinced that his rider is not a bonus. Considering the quality of the horses he gets to ride, a career record of 6/54 in chases round Cheltenham and a level stake loss of £28+ is scant encouragement to lump on at even money. A lay of him is one option, but the Henderson runner, Mr Coffey, is interesting. This has clearly been a long term plan, as Derek O’Connor came over to ride the horse at Uttoxeter last month, finishing a close second off a mark of 140. Mr Coffey also finished second in the Kim Muir a year ago, so we know he’ll handle the course. He’s always looked a bit of a plodder over 3M, hence his high number of second places, but this trip and some cut in the ground could bring out the best in him. Plainly more likely to finish second than win, but he’s surely solid ew material for those that don’t want to back the even money chance. Henderson has never won this race, as rider or trainer, but given his historic link to the course (it was owned by his father before JCR took over), I suspect he’d love to add it to his list. Finally, best of luck to everybody this week. And let's hope we get through the meeting with no fatalities and no races where we won't know the result until next week, because of the chance of a whip related disqualification. For tomorrow, I hope CH gives Andrew cause for celebration and produces a performance to light up what has been a very ordinary NH season. |
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Andrew
Thank you for the donation - Top man |
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Andrew.in.Sweden13 Mar 23 10:21Joined: 22 Apr 19 | Topic/replies: 6,002 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog Steve PHS is correct. Given i have a lot of free time from Thursday morning, i will update the PL, but at the moment it's Red for the year. Ok thanks You start with a bank and stake a percentage? |
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Steve, click on page 9 of this thread, it may save you asking so many questions.!
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well done Andrew, great for you and us all to see a champion horse, not my sort of price to back. but managed to evens over 6 lengths.
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My day gets better and better
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Go collect Andrew won like a real good un.
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That has made your trip worthwhile Andrew.Backing long odds on does not suit me.I don't have the bottle for it but I am glad he won for you.He could not have won any easier.
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Awesome performance,that last flight though...
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Seems like all is going well so far. Thought I would try and join in but with a much bigger price.
I cannot help but have a bet on Queens Gamble in the Champion Bumper. I know the race has been farmed by our friends from across the Irish Sea but she won impressively FTO in November over C&D when Luccia was an intended runner for her seasonal debut but Nicky knew she couldn't beat QG and withdrew her. Patently unsuited by Market Rasen LTO despite still running well, this race must have been her target since last year and would be half the price if trained by anyone more renown. 20/1 first four seems a reasonable e/w but it will just be a fun £50 e/w in such an open race. GL. |
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Interesting afterthought from yesterday was that Marine Nationale and Facile Vega would have been 2nd and 3rd on times in the CH with Constitution Hill just about 1 1/2 lengths in front of Marine National, could either have won further, both i'd think.
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Sorry 4 1/2 lengths.
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Hi Andrew, I hope you are enjoying your visit. Stewarts I know what I would back. CH certainly looks exceptional and I can't see anything to beat him in either discipline.
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Good afternoon Guys from a very overcast Bristol.
Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated. There was a time when i thought i wouldn't arrive here, no thanks to KLM who not only cancelled my original flight to Schiphol (re-routed via Lufthansa) but later also the same evening connection to Bristol. After a stressful and frustrating evening spent there over-night not knowing anything, it wasn't until just before 07.00 the following morning i knew i was going and at least i could get the 08.15 with a definite re-booking. To be fair, the 2 female KLM reps i spoke to were sympathetic and did go out of their way to get me to Bristol after i explained the whole episode, so i'm grateful to them. British politeness and a little 'Cornish blarney' goes a long way. More later, but to start, a superb day at Cheltenham yesterday, only my 2nd ever visit there and if you haven't been, i recommend going to the festival at least once. I'm not going to be negative about queues for an overpriced Guinness or packed stands, in fact i watched the champion hurdle from the Club enclosure, 3rd floor, leaning on the rail and had a perfect view. The atmosphere was wonderful and our friends from across the Irish sea were as audible as ever, i loved every minute of it. Results certainly favoured punters and my review thread on 13th at 10.21 turned out well. It certainly started off well, laying the fav and getting diverge the EW 25/1 3rd, but how much did i have on the place, not a cent, instead i left it as a win bet. The icing on my cake during the afternoon was without doubt, Constitution Hill, the primary reason i went and who won in the manner i expected. In years to come, i will be able to say 'i was there' just as i can with some of Frankels' wins and in my opinion CH could possibly become as great as he was. Regular readers know i backed CH as far back as December, not something i would normally do, but an indication of how i rated him even then. With exception of hid debut run, i've backed him in 5 runs. I managed to find a course bookmaker who took euros (many did) but paid out in the same currency (not the 1.20 exchange rate offered by some) and i had a nice few bob on at 4/11, total race winnings far exceed my Lossiemouth losses last month. Having said that, going racing is not always about the money, i also had a fantastic day with great company. On to this afternoon, it's not a good a card as yesterday, but this was known in advance. No hefty bets for me, but i will have a few small ones and watch on ITV in my hotel room. I have a work related con/call at 15.00 in between races, so hopefully it doesn't drag on. Approaching 3.30 i may have to blame hotel wi-fi. In short, i think Energumene wins the Champion Chase. I will play Good Land as a 3/TBP (2.00) in the opener and same for The Real Whacker (2.30) in the Browns Advisory. I put up Benson at good odds when he won LTO and will play a small EW in the Coral Cup (2.50). Currently around odds of 15. Another i will play small EW is Elixir De Nutz in the Challenge Cup 4.50. I suggested this one last year in the same race (ran off 143) but it was never in with a shout. 4lb higher today but has improved. His run LTO was good, won at Cheltenham (hurdles). Currently 18.5 and 4 for 4/TBP. Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all. Trusty Good luck with your selection. Stewarts In my opinion, neither has a remote chance against CH (who was eased) although i did say to my friends after the race, Marine Nationale looks very useful. |
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Good afteroon Laurie
Superb thanks. Bristol is a lovely city, a bit rough around the edges in places, but i like it. I expect to stay here until Friday morning at least, in fact another day at Cheltenham is not out of the question, albeit very tentative. If not, i may meet friends in London. I return to Germany late Sunday afternoon from Heathrow. Good luck. |
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The Real Whacker, what a run
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