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Andrews 2023 Lay Thread

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By:
stewarts rise
When: 04 Mar 23 15:24
Well done Andrew, don't expect you saw him on the morning line either.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 04 Mar 23 19:52
Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated.

A profitable post earlier with 2/3 and it could have been a full house. The well-backed Charlie Appleby trained Al Suhail duly won at Meydan although we can all pick them at 4/6. Not for the first occasion i got the race time wrong.

The icing on the cake was Benson in the days big handicap at Kelso who stayed on strongly from way off the pace to win cosily in the end. I had a couple of tenners win/4 places (16 and 3.45) although IR odds must have been high 3 flights out, i didn't Ryan Mania any chance but the early fast pace played into his hands. Winning this race has given connections chance of a 100K bonus for winning at the Cheltenham festival so entries in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe will give them food for thought over the next week and the way he won today must give them hope.

I was happy for the trainer/jockey of course, but not so in a later race as my nap and 3rd selection Le Milos was 4L clear over the final fence and winning looked almost assured (1.01 IR) but he idled on the run-in and was caught close home by Empire Steel to give them a double on the day. I wanted to post The Shunter as a lay, partly for reasons already mentioned, but this one drifted to beyond my 5/2 limit.

Changing topic, i noticed George Boughey won the G3 at Meydan (£125,000 to the winner) with the 3 year old Al Dasim, making 5 wins on the spin, the previous 3 over CD. Less than 5 months ago the first on these was in a class 5 novice at Wolverhampton, but now the Commonwealth Cup could be on the cards for him.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Stewart

I guess you mean the Opening Show, no i didn't. I used to use Transponder TV for GB programs, but they recently stopped broadcasting for whatever reason. I'm looking into other options and this afternoon i was resigned to Betfair LV, but i only watched a few races anyway.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 05 Mar 23 08:36
Morning Andrew, travelling to Doha tomorrow on the 787 Dreamliner,heard that Boeing are having issues with the front bulkhead of this aircraft,have u any idea what the problem are,thx
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 05 Mar 23 09:13
Morning Tanglefoot

I wouldn't be concerned and i've flown on it several times, it's actually a nice aircraft.

The forward section of the aircraft isn't manufactured by Boeing, but Spirit Aero Systems and the issue was raised by a 3rd party supplier. I don't know 100% what the problem is, but i suspect it's to do with load analysis on an item installed as part of the composite structure. There will be sufficient reserve factors implemented in the analysis anyway as the pressure bulkhead is a 'critical component'.

The aircraft has a history of varying issues over the years but is considered very safe, i don't know of any serious incidents with it. Boeing have halted deliveries but this is 'procedure' and the FAA have not issued any AD's (Airworthiness Directive) for this latest problem.

Given a choice of flying with 737 Max or 787 Dreamliner, i would choose the latter.

Enjoy your flight.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 05 Mar 23 09:50
Thanks Andrew,reply much appreciated,always been a bit of a nervous flyer,but nothing a bit of tonsil varnish cannot cure Happy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 05 Mar 23 10:18
I can sympathise as i've flown with quite a few nervous flyers in my time including my daughter.

I guess any turbulence exacerbates your nervousness, but the 787 has a gust suppression system that at least reduces the impact. Hopefully you have a night or early morning flight (less turbulent) and an aisle seat in the wing box area (over-wing emergency exits) is also less prone to the impact of turbulence. Explain to the flight crew you are nervous as well.

Alcohol is not the best solution. If you are really nervous, better to stay awake the night before so you are more likely to sleep during the flight. 

Are you flying with Qatar ? It's a good airline.

Be careful what medication (if any) you take with you to Doha.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 05 Mar 23 11:04
Thanks for the advice Andrew,yes the airline is Qatar,first time with them usually go with Emirates,not as nervous as I was years ago,age has bought a certain level of deja vu.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 06 Mar 23 11:19
As some of you have shown an interest in the horses I own, two bits of news. First sadly is that Love Dreams is no longer with us, having suffered a leg fracture at home (we've no idea how) that at first seemed minor but deteriorated rapidly after a week of treatment, at which point he was put down on advice of the vet. We all know it happens in racing, but it doesn't lessen the impact when you've been close to a horse and the staff at the stables (all female) were very upset. He gave me some great days, was wonderfully consistent, gave every impression of enjoying being a racehorse, his trainer called him a 'stoic' in his attitude to his work. He'd probably have hated being retired as any time he was put out in the paddock, he'd be stood by the gate after ten minutes wanting to come back to his box - but it's still sad that he never had the option.

Second, the horse I bought last December, who was never intended as a replacement, Eagle Court, has his first run for me this evening at Wolverhampton, 7:30, and it's also the first ride for Marco Ghiani after his six month ban. Eagle Court has been very keen at home and if he carries that into this race, it'll be an interesting contest between him and Marco as to who is fittest! We've removed all the various headgear tried by his previous yard and start with a clean sheet - then review that after we see how he goes today and what Marco can tell us post race. I'll be delighted if he makes the first four, totally amazed if he wins first time up.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 06 Mar 23 11:26
That's very sad to hear Alan, condolences to you and the girls who will be heartbroken.
Must have typed at same time as you about Marco, has he ridden for you before, i hadn't noticed his 1st ride back was for you.
By:
The Management
When: 06 Mar 23 11:27
Very sad news Alan. He was remarkably consistent and gave a lot of other people pleasure too I would imagine. Sad

Best wishes with the new fella.
By:
madhatters
When: 06 Mar 23 11:31
Sorry to hear the LD news
GL with EC
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Mar 23 11:43
Afternoon Alan

Sad to read your Love Dream news and i'm sorry for your loss, additionally my thoughts to all staff in Michaels yard that looked after him. Racing fans often see injuries on course and the majority are as sympathetic as they can be, but to be an owner and lose it to the circumstances you describe must be hard to bear. I think many on here followed the horse, irrespective of whether they backed it or not, and he certainly did you proud in the 2.5 years you owned him. It's scant consolation, but at least you have the memories.

A few days ago i noticed Eagle Court was running this evening (i think you mentioned it here as well). He looks to have a bit to do, but good luck and i hope he runs well in his first race for you.

Best wishes
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 06 Mar 23 12:03
Alan,
Sorry to read your news on Love Dreams.
He was a game old boy and as you say much loved by yourself and the stable.
Heartbreaking especially for the girls who looked after him.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 06 Mar 23 12:07
Sorry to hear that, Anorak, condolences to yourself and those who looked after the horse.

Good luck with Eagle Court, let's hope he can go the right way and be a November Handicap contender again.
By:
second again
When: 06 Mar 23 12:36
Sorry to read that Alan,I enjoyed reading your views on the placing of Love Dreams he will be missed by many.Thanks for sharing  the news with us.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 06 Mar 23 12:36
good luck with the eagle alan ,sorry to hear the sad news on love dreams .
By:
Brian
When: 06 Mar 23 12:47
Alan - Love Dreams appeared to me to be a good fun horse to be involved with so obviously it is very sad news about his death.

Good luck with Eagle Court.
By:
Hayden
When: 06 Mar 23 12:49
Love Dreams  Sad
By:
TheAnorak
When: 06 Mar 23 13:01
Thank you all very much for your comments. Here's a picture of Love Dreams taken by his regular work rider at the stable about a year ago - it's my favourite image of him:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15IZ0KwntVJzJ74LS8FSvkD9WYkIGdrp8/view?usp=share_link
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 06 Mar 23 13:49
Very sorry to hear about Love Dreams, Alan. He was running as if he was still thoroughly enjoying the game and judging by his portrait picture, he looked very happy being a racehorse.

I hope the Eagle runs a pleasing race for yourself and the stable this evening. Good luck.
By:
Mr_Spreadsheet
When: 06 Mar 23 13:57
Sorry to read your sad news Alan. Great picture of LD. Good luck with EC later
By:
BESTMATE44
When: 06 Mar 23 16:14
Very sad news Alan.
By:
Shanelee1966
When: 06 Mar 23 19:21
Sorry to hear Alan, best wishes to all connected.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 07 Mar 23 09:39
A distinctly underwhelming debut from Eagle Court, that leaves us looking for answers. Which will be tricky as I'm not sure we even know the right questions, let alone the answers. One interesting point that most will have missed about the meeting at Wolverhampton, is that heavy rain for more than two hours had the effect of producing a surface similar to turf good to firm - in effect the rain changes it from a beach above the tide line, to one where the tide has just gone out.

Pleased to see Marco back with a winner, pity it was in the race where my stable had a fancied runner! Add in the nightmare that goes by the name of the M6 and not the best racing trip I've ever had!
By:
formoftheace
When: 07 Mar 23 10:20
The M6…..you have my sympathy….
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Mar 23 12:08
Good afternoon Guys,

Alan, if you're looking in sometime, a friend wants an opinion of BAD, ex-French trained, now with Ben Pauling with an entry in the Boodles. He seems to think it's rated 138, but i don't see it. I checked France Gallop site and noticed he had a rating of 63 (126 over here).

Any opinion is much appreciated.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Mar 23 12:17
Alan, forget the 138, i can see why he thinks this now, but any opinion of his chance in the Boodles would be welcome
By:
TheAnorak
When: 10 Mar 23 12:52
Hi Andrew,

Somebody else asked me about this horse a couple of weeks ago, querying the 126 rating, so I've already done the research. I don't think his French form is worth 126, I'd have him about 10lbs lower. The race he won hasn't produced any subsequent winners and overall the form looks very ordinary.

Best of luck to connections, but I'm reminded of that old racing cliche that says 'If you give a horse a bad name ......'. And bad names don't come any more specific than BAD!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Mar 23 13:00
Many thanks Alan, i appreciate the speedy response.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 10 Mar 23 17:56
Just noticed that Rachel Blackmore is booked to ride Bad, an interesting choice by her given the likely number of Irish trained runners in the race. Probably explains the price though.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 11 Mar 23 08:54
Morning All,

With the good news that Sandown goes ahead, I have a suggestion for one to take on - Easy As That in the 3:35. A couple of reasons, apart from the 9lb rise for his last win and the step up in class, of which the most important is that he's never run over hurdles or fences on a right handed track. At Haydock two starts back, Deutsch took him round the wide outside and he shifted left at almost every fence, diving at a couple of them.
Quinlan took over at Newcastle and opted to ride him round the inside rail, which kept the horse jumping straight - but there's not going to be a rail on his left hand side at Sandown and I can see the fences there giving him problems.

The second concern may be a red herring, but his previous runs over fences have been well spaced out, with 54 and 57 day gaps before the last two wins. Now he returns after running 14 days ago, which is a much more common practice for this stable - and that's what makes the previous longer gaps look significant. Currently at 6/4 with the books, should be more like 5/2 imo.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 11 Mar 23 11:56
Good afternoon Guys from a sunny, albeit chilly west of München.

It may feel like Winter here, but astonishingly enough, 18c/19c is forecast for Monday.

In the office for a few hours that probably puts me down as a workaholic, but it's simply a case of getting ahead because i will finish work on 15.00 Monday. A late afternoon KLM flight to Schiphol, stay overnight locally then early flight to Bristol arriving in time for a decent breakfast. Drop my bag off, then make my way to Cheltenham. Oddly enough the flight cost to Bristol was more or less same to Heathrow, so i saved myself a train fare.

At the moment i'm only planning to go to the course on the opening day, but i will play it by ear, although i have other plans on Wednesday anyway. Shishkin on Thursday and Lossiemouth on the Friday are tempting, but at £108 + £2.50 a day, it's not a cheap meeting. I've been once before albeit not for a good few years, in fact Phil Tuck rode the big race winner, so that gives you an idea how far back. I'm really looking forward to it, not only the opening day of the festival, that is the best card of the meeting in my opinion, but also a few days in Bristol where we lived for a couple of years after leaving Cornwall. Returning to München on Sunday evening from Heathrow.

I have a few shortie lays for Tuesday, but more on this Monday night, so on to this afternoon.

Thankfully the Winter conditions in GB have relented a little and Sandown benefits as a result with the Imperial Cup meeting going ahead. There used to be a decent financial bonus for winning the race and following up at Cheltenham, Martin Pipes Blowing Wind being one such recipitent back in time, but i don't think there is this afternoon. Irrespective of this it's still a half-decent 18-runner handicap.

I often put up a selection in these Saturday big-field handicaps with mixed success, although there are times when they cross the finish line after the security man has locked up and home watching Match of the Day. Not so last week though. and it shows a broken watch can be right sometimes as my selection Benson won (SP 11/1, but 16 was available on BF).

Today, my lucky pin has fallen on the Jamie Snowden trained Hardy De Seuil in the Imperial Cup (2.25). Won over CD beating the likely favourite Iceo 3L LTO and is 3 lb worse off, so theoretically there shouldn't be a lot between them, but the weight could make a difference on going that could be heavy in places. He will not be inconvenienced by the ground and has won off a higher rating over fences. I don't do stats, but from the previous winners of the race this century, 17 have been 6 years olds or younger, and only 3 carried 11st or more, so HDS certainly fits the bill. Currently trading at 16.5 and 3.75 4/TBP i think he has a decent chance, but these typical handicaps are a minefield as we all know.

For shortie backers, i've already backed the Gary Moore trained Spirit D'Aunou in the opener (1.15). Improving, track and conditions should suit and an opening mark of 115 looks winnable. Won well LTO and the 3rd home has since finished 2nd behind a decent sort in a conditions race at Auteuil. Gary likes to have winner at Sandown and his strike rate with hurdlers on the track is 25%; an added positive (minor) is he won the race in 2018 and 2021. Currently trading around 2.26 i think he will win.

I noticed Simon/Ed Crisford have a lightly raced filly The Ivy entered for a listed race at Deauville (4.52) but i think she will do well to win, interesting she's the tissue favourite though.

I wasn't intersted in laying anything at Sandown, but maybe Ayr although the fields are cutting up there, so i will look again later.

Alan

Many thanks for the Rachael comment (not a race i will be playing in) and your input later, good luck with the lay selection.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 11 Mar 23 12:03
recipient Wink
By:
Lampus
When: 11 Mar 23 12:57
Thank  you ANDREW G/L Happy
By:
stewarts rise
When: 11 Mar 23 15:46
Thanks for the Lay, Anorak, well btn.
By:
second again
When: 11 Mar 23 15:50
Never a moments worry with your ay Alan,very well done.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 11 Mar 23 16:01
WD Alan, good reasoning and always good to get a shortie beaten.
By:
Brian
When: 11 Mar 23 16:03
WD Alan.
By:
Hayden
When: 11 Mar 23 16:03
Good call Alan , yet again  Happy
By:
BESTMATE44
When: 11 Mar 23 16:10
Great call Alan,very well done.
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