Good afternoon Guys,

Laurie

@ Flightline (surely not medication )

There are several ways to determine the aircraft type you could be flying on in future, some airlines actually state it on their web-site, reservation or even boarding cards. You can also use www.flightradar24.com (you may have to subscribe) by adding a flight number, but whichever method you use, check again on the day as airlines can change aircraft types at short notice for varying reasons. If you are concerned, send me your details on WhatsApp and i can let you know. To be fair to Ryanair, they have a good safety record, better than some national airlines. I used to fly with them occasionally from Skavsta (100 kms from Linköping) to Stansted and Majorca/Malta, but they don't use that airport now. Cheap as chips, just take your own refreshments etc and don't use the meal tables without using wet-wipes.

Shane

Don't you start, one troll is enough

As for nap selections, yes, both hopeless this month, but still only halfway through the month. Good luck.

Tanglefoot

Pilots can override the MACS now.

The system per se was actually a 'quick fix' as the new engine location impacted handling, and it was a sole sensor that instigated the 2 accidents. Over 3 years ago the FAA issued an AD for modifications to the flight control system.

Good card today at Sandown.

In the 3.35 I cannot see Givega giving 12lb to Immortal. Defeat accepted FTO when behind Authorised Speed, who nearly uprooted the last but De Boinville had already given up. A while since his last run and already had a wind op and tongue tie added. Feels better to back Immortal than lay Givega as only 3 in the race. Currently 2.14 on here.

GL

Hope you layed it Andrew, nice reasoning.

Got that wrong but at least kept loses smaller, still profits are whats required!

Good afternoon Guys,

A busy Bee here, so more later maybe.

Stewarts Rise

Thanks, yes i layed Quel Destin (3.95) but only for a small win. He wasn't fluent 2 out, but i don't think it made a difference

Shane

We all go through poor runs, but your luck will return. I picked up a bit with 5 winners in a row up to yesterday, but i chose the wrong one between Immortal and Flann (won at 11/10). Still got work to do and i don't really fancy anything today.

Trusty

Unlucky, GM had a form line of course, and to be fair the winner looked good on debut, but i also fancied Immortal. May win a decent handicap one day.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

You still wanna take the risk with only 2 opponents? I've traded out.

Well done Andrew

Nice lay Andrew, always nice to lay last of 3 runners!

I have to lay Shiskin tomorrow, currently 3.2 favourite on here and some decent sums traded already but on the stats Henderson has tried to win this race 9 times in the last 10 years and only managed 2 places, similarly 13 9yr olds have taken their chance with only 3 having placed. Once the place market has developed I am going to lay him PLACE as well because I just cannot see Boinville even trying if he has no chance of winning. The extra distance is also an unknown as is the ground which although he has won on good, it is to a much lower rating and who knows if he will let himself down on it now older. All in all, despite being a fantastic horse and being highest rated, there are too many unknowns to back him tomorrow.

GL

Morning All,

Having made a case for laying Bo Zenith on his UK debut (last page of the 2022 thread), when he started 4/11 and finished 27L behind I Have A Voice, it's a surprise to find him being backed in the Haydock 1:30 to reverse that form. I struggle to see any reason to believe he can find enough to win this - if Sandown had been his only run (i.e no win in France) he'd surely be long odds today.

I'm not a great fan of Afadil either - his win at Musselburgh last time saw the first five home covered by four lengths and they can't all be that good. The fourth that day came into the race rated 105 and has since been beaten out of sight in a handicap off 106. Two runs right handed for Afadil and he has shown a tendency to shift right, so possibly not going to be suited by Haydock.

Overall this looks a pretty ordinary field for a £25k race and betting options would be lay the two shorties, Afadil and Bo Zenith, at a combined odds on. Or punt I Have A Voice each way as he'll surely be hard to keep out of the frame unless some of these show marked improvement.

Not a lot really. The horse that finished second when he won was given a mark equivalent to 114 UK for that run. And he subsequently changed hands after finishing second in a claiming hurdle, also at Cagnes Sur Mer, for 17,333 euros.

The third and fourth behind Punte Del Este appear to have boosted the form by filling the places in a Listed race. But a Listed juvenile hurdle at Cagnes Sur Mer would be a long way short of the level we'd expect for a race of that class over here. In effect it's just the best of the locals, and the ones sent there becuase they aren't good enough for the Paris tracks.

My best guess would be that Punta Del Este would be worth a UK mark of around 125 at best. So I hope Darren Yates hasn't laid out too much cash on this one - unless of course I'm totally wrong about the horse!

I haven't place laid Shiskin because it is 1.85 versus 3.05 to win where as Fakir is 1.71 versus 3.25. I was expecting to lay Shiskin at around 1.60 to place. A very strange market imo.

Not such a strange market in my view Trusty , both Shiskin prices are due to a profile of not certain to run a solid race but obviously with the book form to win doing handsprings , whereas Fakir is seen as virtually certain to run to his mark , so seen as a more place proposition but his win chances are related more as to how much ability Shiskin has retained.

Perfect example of an exchange race able to demonstrate true odds due to the separate win & place markets & befitting the horse profile as opposed to bookmakers having to offer either 1/4 or 1/5th every race whatever the shape or profile of the race , that's why we love bad e/way races with bookmakers.

Best of luck today 

You know it's the best system ever for a jockey to get a winner after a bit of stick on here,stand by for a barnstorming ride of the season on Shiskin...

ooopps

Good morning Guys,

Thanks to all for the posts.

Whatever anyone thinks of Nicky Henderson there's no doubting he's adept at bringing a 'sick-bed' horse back to life, Sprinter Sacre and Shishkin being a couple of recent examples, and in bygone years was nursemaid to the triple CH winner See You Then who was very lightly raced due to tendon issues.

It appears Shishkin, my favourite NH horse at one time has regained his brilliance, but pre-race you needed a leap of faith to back him even though he's only been beaten once when finishing a race, and is a Supreme and Arkle winner after all. As mentioned yesterday, i thought it was a race to watch, but after shouting him home, my first thought was 'why didn't i play'. Hindsight is wonderful.

As for a Gold Cup bid, no way. With Allaho out and not a particularly strong field on the day, the Ryanair has to be the sensible choice at least. I assume there are no extra charges after the 48 hour declaration stage.  

One i did back was Bold Endeavour (albeit not significantly) and rounding the final bend i thought he was the likely winner, but Oscar Elite proved far too good in the end. He was the class horse and had been running against the likes of L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor although had lost his form in recent runs. Irrespective of the result, the field was disappointing for an Ascot G2; the Reynoldstown has lost some of its standing compared to days when it was won by the ill-fated Killiney, Lanzarote, Little Owl and One Man to name a few. Either that, or i should refrain from being too nostalgic over a Sunday morning coffee.

One i swerved for a PL lay was I Like To Move it, who i got hopelessly wrong and apart from Shishkin was the most impressive winner of the day and in a decent time. I feel Bryony had a hand in the latter setting too fast a pace that benefited the winner, but a good performance nevertheless. It will be interesting to see which Cheltenham race he runs in, although i doubt it will be the CH.

An overall losing day for me, but only double figures in the end. I was working (i use the term loosely) in the office until the Shishkin race then went to Kennedys where many Bayern München supporters were consoling themselves. They lost 3-2, a result that pleased my German work colleague who supports Union Berlin who could go top if they win this afternoon.

Of course the best football result of the day was my lot getting a draw with a late penalty at Sunderland, 11 games undefeated now. A surprising stat from this game is Bristol City had played 67 games without a getting a penalty, surely a record ?

On to this afternoon, a decent card at Newbury for a Sunday, but its Musselburgh (2.20) where i feel there is a lay in Duke Of Deception. A small field of 3, but a tricky handicap i see as 6/4, 7/4 and 2/1. Each one a maiden under rules, no problem with a sharp track for all, but DOD doesn't look a natural over fences, is conceding a fair bit of weight and is it soft enough. Odds of 2.8 are short enough.

Over at Punchestown the Apples Jade listed race looks interesting and a small W/3TBP on Shecouldbeanything could pay out at decent odds. She was unbeaten in 3 prior to her run in the G2 Moscow Flyer LTO, but threw away any chance by poor hurdling. Going back up in trip may help in this context and she looked good winning over a furlong shorter in her penultimate run, form that has been franked by the runner-up. A tentative selection in a decent field.

I will look in again later, liquidity is poor anyway.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Punchestown

Unlucky, this is surely the 'Holy Grail' system.

Afternoon Laurie,

I haven't seen the film, so i don't know the details, but i assume they had Oxygen packs. Many astronauts have walked in space, but are generally tethered to the craft, although a USA one wasn't once (he had a jet pack).

Typical Henderson Saturday afternoon to be fair. 8 runners, 3 favs on the card at Ascot evs, 4/9 and 11/8 all beaten but Shiskin who arguably had the most question marks absolutely skates in. Good early money on Friday, I should have taken more attention as 7 Barrows waded in.

*but my comments*

Brilliant explanation Andrew. I just thought it odd they could just float out alongside the spaceship, it seems weird. I thought because they stepped out of the ship, which was driven by huge engines it would continue on while they remained in place. A bit like falling out of a moving car. Anyway if you do get to see the film you will see what I mean. Apart from that point I thought the concept was original and possible, one day.