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Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
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Nogoody
09.40 Ryanair flight, everyone on board already and looks as though it will leave on time. |
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a few from off here going to leopards today hibore bentring jimnast and worky will be their id imagine enjoy your weekends lads
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unfortunate Andrew, did Willie really need the pacemaker?
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Feel for you Andrew with Lossiemouth.
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decent time today
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unfortunate Andrew, did Willie really need the pacemaker?
---------------------------------------- In hindsight no,very hard to legislate for what happened. |
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see andrew got a mention in simon notts racing blog with AK BETS
infamy,infamy... |
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Good morning Guys from a sunny Crawley.
Thanks for the posts. A nice day in Ireland yesterday, but more on the Lossiemouth debacle later. In the meantime i'm hoping for better luck with a couple of stablemates this afternoon, James Du Berlais, and to a lesser extent Vauban. JDB didn't beat anything of note on chase debut LTO, but was a decent hurdler in France, in fact on first run for WPM in the Champion hurdle was only 14/1 against Honeysuckle. Runner-up in the Grade 1 Irish stayers in his next run. Regular readers know i'm a big Vauban fan, but can he win this afternoon, its difficult to say with any conviction, but he wouldn't have to improve much. A 3 horse race on paper and any can win in my opinion, although State Man is the rightful favourite. Maybe a 2/TBP bet on Vauban at evens is the bet, but I would love to see him win. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. Chavman The 500/1500 mentioned was mine (unfortunately) the only bet i had on course for the 4 races i watched. I also backed it elsewhere (together with GDC) but the latter winning didn't cover losses. It's racing, but i still enjoyed the day. |
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I wish I could say I was like you when I have a bad losing day but unfortunately not. Though one or two in the distant past have become memorable, but usually takes about 30 years for the hurt to subside to make them nostalgic
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Hi Brian,
I hope i didn't sound too blaise about losing, i don't like it as much as the next man, but i don't let it get to me. I make the selections, back in accordance with my confidence level and hope the trainer and jockey do their job. Sure i was sulky for a few minutes after they crossed the line, but that's it, spilt milk and all that. I don't lump on a horse every week, or even every month, nor do i chase, in fact i didnt have a bet at all in the Arkle. This afternoon i only had a couple of 30 win bets on tbe 2 i mentioned earlier. Good luck. |
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Brian. I know that feeling.In 1966 I was at Doncaster for the Leger meeting and considered Charlottown to be a cert.I still shudder when I recall the closing stages. I had a £3 bet on (a lot for me in those days) and it was a case of why is this other animal still in front at the line.
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That's a lie , Andrew sat beside me and we watched the race together, not a bother on him as they passed the line ,a true punter who can take his punishment...
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were you holding hands?
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id hope thats all
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Hey workrider, you should have seen the state of the kitchen when he got back home, it was a like a Greek restaurant after all the plate smashing, but apart from that, he's usually a good loser.
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George .B..
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George
I've been rumbled |
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I'm sure Andrew is much better than me in many aspects of gambling, but my worst day's racing was Cheltenham Gold Cup day in 1974 when I chased liked an idiot after an early bad loss. I lost £1k that day at a time when I'd be earning less than 3K per annum before tax. It was massive I went with a friend who later emigrated to Australia but about 6/7 years ago we bumped into each other in Dublin (he was visiting family and we were on a holiday). I relived my terrible day and he said he had absolutely no idea. I might have been tranquil on the outside but inside .....
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Wow Brian that was some knock , a huge loss in the circumstances, I only back in hundreds my biggest bet £300/400 now and only rarely do I do that ,usual bet is 100/200 . I can understand the turbulence that must have been firing in you that day way back...
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Brian,
You flatter me with your opening and i doubt it's valid, many of us bet differently, but i doubt i could do it for a living, thankfully i don't have to. Going back in time my discipline was abysmal, but i made a lot of changes when Betfair came to fruition and i started laying. It actually taught me a lot and many horses i lay today, i would have backed in early days. Mind you i went off the rails a bit during the early covid period, much of it out of boredom, but i'm quite good today. I can go to a race meeting and only have one or 2 bets, i love the sport, but don't feel i have to bet in every race. I don't chase a significant loss and always play by the notion that once a bet is placed, it's lost until it has won (if that makes sense). When i lose, i feel it for minutes, no more, it's gambling after all, although it's more difficult to swallow when circumstances rob a probable winning chance (aka Lossiemouth). £1,000 in 1974 is £9,646 today, a big hit for any punter and i understand your penultimate post better now. My biggest loss was less, £7000 on Minding (Irish 1000 Guineas) in the WH shop Edgware Rd almost 7 years ago, a filly i had a lot of time for. I did get it back eventually though as she won 5 of her remaining 6 races and i avoided her in the Irish Champion. For run of the mill racing i'm happy to have just a few tenners, or a few hundred if i really fancy one, but i wouldn't back with decent amounts on lower class racing, only group/graded races. Good luck. |
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Losers I can take, but I always resented the ones that were declared to be losers by the stewards after finishing first past the post. In my on course years through the 90's, I took four big hits that way - Avro Anson 3600/400 (Stayers Hurdle), Cuff Link 4000/280 (Lonsdale Cup York), Swiss Act 4000/480 (Goodwood Hcp) and Jardines Lookout 7000/700 (Melrose Hcp) - without any going in my favour.
Avro Anson would probably sill be DQ'd today, but the two at York were demoted for incidents that happened more than 3F out. The York stewards in the 80's and 90's were the most litigious in the country, they loved an amended result. |
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Afternoon Alan
I can understand the frustation at those, some nice bets, or would have been. From my own experience a few stand out (lessor sums than yours) and 3 at least involved French horses, Nureyev in the 2000 Guineas, Sagace in the Arc and a handicapper who's name escapes me. It was at another Arc meeting (i was there on both occasions) the last race and i have a feeling it may have been in the year Generous ran (allowing for an ageing memory). I was losing and backed a 6/1 winner to put me in front, but it was DQ. |
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Alan,I have not forgiven the York stewards for Knockando in the Magnet Cup,I needed to wear oven gloves for a while till my fingers recovered.
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Reckon it took Henry Cecil a long time to get over Vacarme in the Richmond.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMoGfpi914I |
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I'll bet his father-in-law took longer to get over the French stewards' audacity in disqualifying the Queen's Hopeful Venture! I know I did, I had 40 quid on it, which was 2 week's wages at the tome.
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at the time of course.
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Good afternoon Guys,
Many thanks for the posts. It's been a busy week (making paper aircraft ) but as i have a bit of Andrew time over lunch i thought i could post my Leopardstown/Dublin experience.No issues with Easyjet (München to Gatwick) on Friday evening, the same with Ryanair to Dubin the following morning (only 1 hour flight). A bit of a walk to arrivals hall, but the Aircoach stop is right outside the terminal and i didn't have long to wait. 14 euros one way, or 20 return to the Clayton hotel, around 15-20 minutes' walk to the course. Apparently there is a courtesy bus, but i just followed the crowd and arrived much earlier than i envisaged. Leopardstown is a decent enough course (35 euros entry, although i already had a ticket) not as glitzy as Ascot, but it doesn't have to be. A good view (from higher up the stand at least) a big crowd, atmosphere was very good and plenty of English there. More festive and fun than i have experienced at other courses. I can't comment on food and drink outlets, but from what i heard there were staffing problems. I met with the poster Workrider who very kindly showed me around and invited me to the members enclosure (including the Coolmore box). He introduced me to several racegoers (he seemed to know a lot of people there) including the poster Jimnast, both were good to talk with (thanks Guys  ). Met another, Gordon69, but he was engrossed in looking at the comportment and condition of runners in the paddock for the opener. I also had a chat with Simon Nott who was on the AK bets stand. My only bet at the course was on Lossiemouth (with them) although i did back Galopin Des Champs the previous day (not a large stake). Lossiemouth was very unlucky in the Juvenile (many will have seen the incident) but as Punchestown mentioned on the day, it's very hard to legislate for what happened. I made it a 2-horse race between stablemates (most did i suspect) and the other won, but in a clean race i'm confident the favourite would have won, although perhaps by less than the 7L in their previous run. It's racing and being 1/3f doesn't make anything a sure thing. Redemption is possible at Cheltenham of course, although she had a harder race than the winner, but there is almost 6 weeks between races for her to recover fully. There was actually an omen i could have heeded, Aspire Tower won the Frank Knight Juvenile race in 2020, just as Lossiemouth did in December, and went for this race as the same 1/3f fav but fell (i'm not a stats guy or superstitious). I only stayed for 4 races (this was always my plan) and i took a taxi from the course back to the Aircoach stop. My flight to Gatwick was 19.40 so at least i had time for Irish stew, a beer and souvenir shopping. A losing day, but i really enjoyed my time over there, although getting up at 04.15 for my return flight to München on Monday morning wasn't easy. Not all bad though, Bristol City FC increasing their unbeaten run to 8 with another away win. Best Leopardstown performance on the Saturday (for me) was El Fabiola in the Arkle and i think he can win the Cheltenham equivalent in March. Another to take from the weekend was the similarly impressive Mighty Potter who could win the Turners. For those that have never been to Dublin/Leopardstown i can recommend both, i was there for the Irish Champion stakes a good few years ago, but i liked this occasion more, even though i didn't stay overnight as i did previously. A lovely city, but what makes the whole experience better is the Irish themselves, very friendly, helpful people and Germany could learn a lot from them with respect to customer service and hospitality. Ryanair is not to everyone's taste, but for £42 return i can put up with 'cattle class'. Seriously, the aircraft they generally operate, B737-800 are fine and their business model dictates they don't keep them for so many years, so serious maintenance is rarely an issue. Having said that i will be very reluctant to fly on the MAX variant until i'm confident about safety (i know guys that worked on it in USA). I've been travelling for the previous couple of weekends, but not this one, i want a relaxing 2 days in München. Back to Sweden at month-end, but my next trip to GB is probably not before March when i plan to take Tuesday to Sunday off (Cheltenham festival week). Not sure if i will attend the meeting yet (all depends on work commitments) but i really want to see the Champion Hurdle. Good luck and have a nice Friday all. |
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Just to clarify, i didn't get invited into the Coolmore box
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Sounds like you had a really nice trip Andrew, don't think i'd ever go to those lengths to go that far to a race meeting and only stay for 4 races (know that was your intention anyway). As a matter of interest how do you arrange to meet posters like workrider and Gordon at the races when you presumably don't know what each other looks like, do you wear a carnation in your lapel or something?
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Wears a tea shirt with workrider printed on it
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tee
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He's actually the guy with the t-shirt saying...
Slickster is a **** |
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Hi Stewart,
A valid point regarding the travelling, but it wasn't such a big deal. I was staying in the Gatwick Premier Inn anyway, 3 minutes walking distance to the terminal, no baggage and a 1 hour flight. The 4 races were the graded ones, thereafter handicaps that i had no interest in. Door to door, i guess it was around 3.75 hours. No difference travelling from London to Northern tracks really, not that i have been to any. As for arranging a meeting with Workrider (he introduced me to Jimnast and Gordon) easy, we each carried a Shillelagh and wore a Green Hat Seriously, when i mentioned i was going to Leopardstown, he sent me a PM, i gave him my German mobile number and we simply arranged to meet at the AK bets stand. |
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Tanglefoot/George
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Preferred the Shillelagh and the green hat version myself, but i thought would be something far simpler!
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Seriously, when i mentioned i was going to Leopardstown, he sent me a PM, i gave him my German mobile number and we simply arranged to meet at the AK bets stand.
----------------------------------- Plan B could be the old Chris Rea method "Wear a rain and a rose" to help identification ,Re Lossiemouth-I actually though PT was in pole position through the race until 3 out,if he was wider people would say "Why he did he give up the inside"?It's a tough old station sometimes.. |
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good read of your experience andrew but the excessive parentheses sent me dizzy
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was it really just one big algorithm?
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15 in count...the one stanza without should be celebrated
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Good morning Guys,
A few decent cards this afternoon, albeit more so at Newbury and Warwick each with graded races and several odds-on favourites for money buyers, in fact the first 4 races at the latter track are as such. It's doubtful all those at both meetings will win, although Jonbon and Greaneteen look relatively straightforward; whether i back them is another story though. I'm a fan of Love Envoi who should win the listed mares at Warwick, but backers should be aware of the going that will be on the good side. A wonderful mare with a 8-1-0 record from 9 runs and the runner-up place was in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse. I'm looking for a lay selection to post later, but in the meantime i have a couple of suggestions, albeit only for small stakes. Elixir De Nutz (Newbury 3.00) can't beat the favourite Greaneteen on form, although stranger things happen in racing, but given make up of the field he could get second place if things go right. 5 runners, although we can forget the outsider; consistent, but will struggle here leaving 2 rivals, one of which won this race last year and appears to like Newbury, but hasn't performed well this year. The other is Mylistic who has a similar profile to EDN and there's not much to choose between them. I think EDN will make the pace and although running over further recently i doubt the distance will be an issue. The question is, will he be good enough, but his odds, currently 11 for the win on here reflect this. Due to the field size, EW is only an option for the optimistic, but without Greaneteen, a forecast behind him or 2/TBP are better ones and i like the latter at 3.00 on here. The Betfair Hurdle (Newbury 3.35) better known as the Schweppes to many real racing fans is the minefield it often has been, but a couple of winners in Persian War and Make A Stand have gone on to win the Champion Hurdle. No chance of that happening this year, or next, but a decent handicap nevertheless. Gary Moore has a soft spot for the race and runs 2, Teddy Blue and Yorksea, the one i fancy. Ex-French and was a reasonable novice last year before finishing 4th in the Gerry Fielden and winning easily at Fontwell LTO. I have a feeling Gary has had this race in mind for some time. Win odds of 22.0 with 4.0 for 4/TBP are good, although i wasn't so pleased seeing them as i backed him last night at 18. He's a tentative selection that should give backers a decent run. More later. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. Chavman Thanks and after reading my post again, a fair comment relating to the excessive use of parentheses. I guess it stems as habit from work creating technical documentation and using them to enclose references, or whatever. I will try to lessen use of them in future as i'm aware you tunnel through the earths' crust for a living and suffering dizzy spells certainly wouldn't be a positive in this context at least. I don't want to be held partly responsible for a boring machine to appear in a Dorset residents back garden in future. |