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Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
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Good 'chilly' morning Guys,
No snow here, although it's forecast for tomorrow and throughout the week. A 'so nearly' day with the 2 back selections yesterday. Leading Theatre (5/1) took the lead from the odds-on favourite and front running Missed Tee off the final bend and went 1.5L clear approaching the last flight. Backers were probably rubbing their hands at this point, but to give the eventual winner credit, she rallied gamely on the run-in to win by 0.75L. There was some discussion on the forum whether it was a good ride/poor ride by the respective jockeys, but the way i saw it is the winner simply found just a little bit extra on the soft going that probably suited her more than the other, but take nothing away from the runner-up. The IR odds must have been short (i didn't see them) but not as low as 1.04 for Barenboim (evens) my other selection at Wolverhampton last night. Held up at the rear as expected, travelling well throughout and off the final bend loomed up on the outside of Solent Gateway, looking like the winner. Made a strong challenge at the furlong pole, but couldn't find enough to get past him, with Richard Hoiles stating 'going from cruising to bruising' in commentary. Stayed on well enough to beat the rest, but was simply beaten by a better horse on the day. Mind you, the punters that backed him at 1.04 were pinning a lot of faith in a horse that was stepping up in trip by 4f (they may have been less hasty if they knew it was my nap selection  ).That's racing. I haven't seen the RP yet, but will look later/lunchtime, although i know that one of my WhatsApp group has a runner (syndicate share) at Kempton tonight in Sense Of Security. This is the filly i saw at the same course on her last run when i met up with a few connections. Hopefully a win for them this evening, she certainly has the ability, a winnable mark and in my opinion 6f is her best trip, but is keen at times. I will find a meeting room to watch her run (Betfair LV). Maybe more later. Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all. | ||||||||
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Sense Of Security definitely has the form to win here,biggest obstacle Monsiuer Fantaisie
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Tanglegfoot
It's a difficult race to weigh up, a class 6/0-65 after all and Sense Of Security is a maiden to be fair, so not a race to bet significantly unless a punter had stable information. The jockey booking is a bonus compared to the others, and the draw isn't so bad, but she has to settle better. I want her to win for connections, the part owner i know (he comes racing with us) is a nice guy and very enthusiastic, the filly is certainly the Apple of his eye. If i wasn't cheering for her later, i think Triggered could be an EW chance around 10/1, run well in a couple of recent runs, in particular when runner-up behind Politics who has franked the form since. Stable in form. I'm looking forward to the race (i will watch at work) but have to be careful i don't start shouting if she hits the front close home | ||||||||
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Andrew I think your tonsils will get some action
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I see she is entered in the sales 3rd Feb
https://www.tattersalls.com/sales/february-sale/4DCGI/Sale/FEB23/Main/Lots | ||||||||
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Lot 442
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Sense Of Security
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You got the FC as well!
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Nice forecast, well done
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Good morning Guys,
Thanks for the posts. Sense Of Security (3/1) ran well and won cosily with Simon appearing to ease up close home. Since the wind operation, she had been running well enough without getting her head in front, so it was well deserved and i was so happy for connections. I'm not involved in the syndicate at all, i simply know one of them, but considering i had a tour of George Bakers yard (nice set-up) and saw her on the gallops last year, and was invited as a guest to Kempton for her penultimate run (including lunch with 2 of the syndicate members and George) i felt a tinge of pride when she crossed the line in front. Approaching the furlong pole i thought she was destined for 2nd, but she picked up well. As you can imagine, the guys were ecstatic and i have photos and videos from the winning enclosure. I go racing with 3 of them (other 2 not in the syndicate) and wished i had been there. A good day for me, not only the filly losing her maiden status, but Bristol City and Sevilla (my fav La Liga team) both winning cup games away. Changing topic, i read that Flightline has been allocated an official 140 rating, the world has gone mad. Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all. Tanglefoot My tonsils were certainly active when i saw she was going to win  but it was almost 17.00, most guys had left the offices by then and i was alone in a conference room to watch on BF/LV.Stewart/Brian Thanks, but i didn't play the forecast (a pity as it paid over £26) i simply thought Triggered was the danger (and actually mentioned it to the part-owner on my WhatsApp group). If SOS hadn't been running, i wouldn't have reviewed the field the night before anyway. I only had a few tenners on the win (Betfair odds) so i basically recovered previous stakes (i haven't backed her in every run). A financial gain is always a positive, but i was actually happier for the team. Mrcombustible Correct, but my friend is hoping the sale is delayed due to her win. | ||||||||
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Lay Post
Newcastle 1.45 - Russian Virtue A 6 year old Toronado gelding trained by Rebecca Menzies in County Durham. Dam was a 4 time winner (7f/8f) and a total of 5 offspring with a couple running under both racing codes. Another dual-code runner and winner of 2 handicap hurdles, but a 21 race maiden on the flat over varying distances between 7f and 16.5f. Since being transferred to the current stable, he has run off marks in a narrow range of 60-65, the best run probably over 10f at Ayr in August, but the form is 'ordinary' and there were no winners from the field in subsequent races. The same can be applied to both hurdle wins as well. Has tended to be slowly away in recent flat runs. Runs off 59, a lb lower than his previous flat run, but i think the handicapper needs to be a little more forgiving. A small field of 4 with the earlier NR and although the outsider will struggle to win, his 2 other rivals are lightly raced and unexposed, all rated higher with any amount of improvement. The hurdles have resulted in a couple of wins, but back on the flat and an inkling that one or two of his rivals could be a bit pacier over 10f this afternoon, together with the comments above are reasoning for the lay selection. Lay @ 3.30 (average odds) Good luck all. | ||||||||
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Good luck Andrew, i hate 4 runner races very difficult to work out, usually no real pace either, minefield imo.
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Good Luck ANDREW
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Someone fancies him,he is 5/4 now.Good luck Andrew.
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Won’t beat the Crisford horse….imo..
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It’s now down to 2.42 Fav while they are still walking around the parade ring but nobody has told the horse.
That’s a big point in your favour Andrew. Good Luck | ||||||||
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Looked neat but hey ho.
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Heavily backing late on was an ominous sign, but i thought it was beaten in the straight. The Crisford runner didn't find a lot after being rousted along early. Another close finish, but the result pays backers unfortunately.
Thanks for the posts Guys. | ||||||||
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Good afternoon Guys from a wintry West of München,
It's been snowing on and off since Friday lunchtime, so i had a stay-at-home weekend with my daughter who returned from a family festive season with her mother in Brasil (and a zillion photos to review). As a consequence i didn't see much televised racing on Saturday and wish i hadn't looked at the RP yesterday morning as my lay selection won, and at much shorter odds (5/4f) than i layed at. Unfortunately laying to win the same stake at odds of 3.30 takes 3 successful selections to return a profit, but this has been my thread format since 2018. Not a good start to the year after a mini-recovery at end of 2022, but it's racing and when you fall off a bike etc. 2023 Lay P/L Status
Running form = thread result, not the race NH racing meetings could be minimal in the next few days, at least in GB, but hopefully the weather improves for the weekend cards to go ahead at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Naas. To a lessor extent i'm hoping Huntingdon is on Friday as one of my favourite mares Zambella is entered. Runners at Ffos Las this afternoon may need water wings as it gets really heavy there and finishers could be well strung out at the line. Dan Skelton has a few shorties, but none you would want to be lumping on. If i had to pick one likely favourite to win at the meeting it would be Uncle Bart (2.00) who has course experience, will not be inconvenienced by the going and the winner of his debut race has run well (4th) in the Grade 1 Tolworth since. Mind you, it's a meeting i could easily avoid and probably will. My next couple of weekends involve travelling, back to Linköping on Friday afternoon, albeit a short visit, returning Sunday night; my first trip back home this year. I also mentioned a week or so ago on here i was thinking of going to Leopardstown for the DRF in early February, but direct from here and staying the weekend. I'm still going, but my plans have changed, instead i go to Gatwick on the Friday (EasyJet) and Dublin on the Saturday morning (09.40) returning the same evening (19.40) with Ryanair. I haven't flown with the latter in a while, but for £41 return i can lower my expectations. It's a decent card although i'm only really interested in 3 races, in particular Lossiemouth in the Juvenile (readers know i'm a fan) the Arkle and Gold Cup being the others, but will all my fancies run. I've got a course ticket, but unfortunately all premier seating is fully booked. I've been to Leopardstown once before, albeit a lifetime ago (Irish Champion stakes) and looking forward to it, although i will not have much time to visit the city of course. If there are any Irish guys reading this, any tips on getting from the airport to the course would be appreciated. I actually took a taxi last time (i was staying at the Post House hotel) but i guess it would be expensive today. I did see there was a number 700 coach that took 70 minutes. Good luck and have a nice Monday all. | ||||||||
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Another punter keeping true records.
No hiding place in this game…. | ||||||||
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True records would actually include commission - but his records are still 100% straighter than yours imo.
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The abcess has shown its head….
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If there are any Irish guys reading this, any tips on getting from the airport to the course would be appreciated. I actually took a taxi last time (i was staying at the Post House hotel) but i guess it would be expensive today. I did see there was a number 700 coach that took 70 minutes.
__________________________________________________ That would be Aircoach who are around years and are normally reliable enough from what I've heard. https://www.aircoach.ie/timetables/700 The pick up point is fairly well signposted afaik,the drop off at The Clayton Hotel is about a 15 minute walk to the track https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Clayton+Hotel+Leopardstown,+Carmanhall,+Dublin+18/Leopardstown+Racecourse,+Foxrock,+Dublin+18,+D18+C9V6/@53.2699671,-6.204242,16z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x486709a83467dffb:0x35558b651993c141!2m2!1d-6.2058434!2d53.271238!1m5!1m1!1s0x48670854b5d86615:0xf9f879b28a58f3ab!2m2!1d-6.1955572!2d53.2668943!3e2 | ||||||||
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Good morning Guys,
Punchestown Many thanks for the post. I did notice there was a 700 bus from Dublin airport to Leopardstown, although i hadn't looked into times, but i downloaded the pdf in the link you posted. The airline arrival time states 11.05 (it will probably be earlier and no baggage) and the only races i'm interested in are 1.55, 2.30 and 3.05 (i will leave after the Gold Cup) so i shouldn't have any problems, and can even stop off in the city on the return. Looking forward to it, my first NH course in Ireland and no currency exchange issues. All i have to hope for is reasonable weather. | ||||||||
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Andrew have you ever read any of the Bill Bryson books or watched the movie, A Walk in the Woods? With your extensive racecourse travels why don't you write a book about them? I bet you have some good, funny, interesting, success and failure stories to tell.
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Morning Laurie,
I wouldn't class my racecourse travels as extensive (not as many in GB as i would have liked) but i've done several foreign ones including those further afield in Woodbine, Happy Valley and Ascot (Perth). I even saw the Swiss St Leger back in time. Not aware of Bill Bryson, or the film, but i could certainly write a book about my life working around the world with some interesting/funny anecdotes (specially in West Java, Indonesia). Maybe a retirement project, but i don't have any plans for this stage of my life yet (i would get too bored to be honest). | ||||||||
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I agree, you are far too young but think about making notes, just in case. You never know when you are my age many racecourses may not even exist and betting could easily be a completely different world, that is if you read the Racing Post. You certainly write a good book every year when you are on here.
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Thanks for 'far too young' Laurie, i'm not a spring chicken by any means
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Dave Brannigan again extends his invite to lunch in DLR and invited myself,I accept and offer dinner in the city Andrew,on me?
Just name where you like and it will be done and paid for? | ||||||||
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Morning Andrew. You`re on a decent run in the Premier division, i`m now on a losing run.
Hopefully get back on track today with Silverscape 7.30 over 2 mile trip for first time. Good luck | ||||||||
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Hi Shane,
Thanks, on Monday it was a 'Lucky Pin' team 1/2 place at the top of the premiership, but 2 subsequent losses have dropped me to 4th, although i have to go for outsiders now. You have a good lead (and had some near misses) so could take some catching. What i need is a 33/1 shot to seal the deal, but the last time i had one at those odds winning, Fred Archer was on it. Good luck for rest of the month. | ||||||||
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Not familiar with Archer but i remember my Dad telling me about him
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Good evening Guys,
A chilly evening here with surface ice warnings, it was certainly slippery in places on my way home from the office earlier, but no mishaps. Travelling to Linköping tomorrow afternoon (2 KLM flights permitting) and normally it would be colder up there, but it's actually warmer with sub-tropical temperatures of 4c . Only a short weekend home (back Sunday night) my first time this year, so washing the windows will be one of my tasks. My other will be watching Bristol City v WBA with a Swedish mate who supports the latter (don't ask) at one of the sports-bars on Saturday (assuming it's televised).The racing has been a bit run of the mill this week (Gowran an exception today) but hopefully Cheltenham is on after an inspection tomorrow. Not much to be enthralled with at Newcastle this evening, but one i have layed already is Spanish Angel (7.00 Newcastle). Has the ability to win, but hasn't done so since July 2021 and 20 runs ago (off a mark of 70). Not ungenuine by an means, but had a trio of runner-up places recently and been favourite in two of his previous 4 runs. 2 turf wins and one on the AW at Wolverhampton, but never at Newcastle in 5 runs. Maybe the straight 5f doesn't suit as well as a bend at Brighton and Windsor (minimal with the latter). Joint top rated and the only thing that stops me posting this as a PL lay is the jockey booking, probably the best 5lb claimer around. Odds of 2.96 are short enough. Good luck and have a nice evening all. | ||||||||
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The page width appears to have increased for whatever reason, hopefully it rights itself on the next one.
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Well backed, too good, it could have won with me on board. The jockey could win on a rocking horse at the moment
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As AIS is travelling today, I thought I have a go at a lay.
1.35 Doncaster William Cody currently 2.1 on here. Very steady form 2121 this season and only a 6yr old. Off his highest mark today and despite the Post saying his latest winning form was franked, that looks like a lazy comment to me; as the 3rd came out to win a lowly race NTO. Just on the stats, there has been no 6yr old winner to date, 1 place from 6 runners; previous winners have been rated 111 or higher; three other runners clearly perform better on good ground whereas the selection has a better rating with give. Favourites have had a 25% S/R. So all in all looks a value lay to me at 2.1. GL. | ||||||||
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Good morning Guys,
Trusty Thanks for the post, and good luck with your lay selection. Travelling, albeit my first KLM flight is 17.35 (transit at Schiphol) so i will leave the office around 14.15 as i'm at an opposing side of the city to the airport (i take the S-Bahn direct). A couple i fancy backing today Zambella (Huntingdon 3.00) a mare i like, very genuine and rarely runs a bad race (i've put her up a few times on here). Never raced on the course, but it should suit her style of running. I thought odds of 5/4 were a little skinny as it's not a bad field, but i expect her to go off in front early on and stay there. Elsewhere, i think Saint Segal (Doncaster 3.15) is worth a sensible stake (currently around 9/4). Unbeaten in a couple of 16f chases and survived a bad mistake when he won LTO. Still a novice, but a strong traveller who could tun out half-decent in time. Gone up 15 lb in the ratings (121-136) since chase debut, but receives weight from several rivals. It's actually my nap in the daily comp and has to win for me to stay in contention with the leaders. Good luck and have a nice Friday all. | ||||||||
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I'll join in the fun and report that I'm laying Arclight in the Doncaster 2:40. She's won two pretty feeble fillies races, a maiden and a race in which the only threat fell at the first. I'm surprised she's so heavily favoured over the three Irish challengers, who have been running in much more competitive races, bigger fields and against males - and presumably they haven't travelled over just to make up the numbers. Much too short currently at 2.2.
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Well done trusty, nice priced lay selection, good luck to Anorak with his.
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