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George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread

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Replies: 336
By:
sageform
When: 14 Nov 22 14:29
What did you make of the Cheltenham trial George? I thought that Scriptwriter was very impressive and had the flat rating to back up his hurdles form. The real enigma is Mr Freedom which I had a small bet on. He had run out on his previous run when well in command and almost did it again on Saturday although he did jump it rather sideways and lost all momentum. He then weakened but going to the last I thought he still had every chance so some blinkers might yet help him prove that he is (in my view) still one of the top 3yos that we have seen to date.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Nov 22 17:23
sageform, I suppose it's not hard to pick holes in the form with the fav bombing out and the Skeleton horse maybe going for home too soon under his penalty, and there were five of them in close proximity at the final flight.

Against that, given the winner's Flat profile and what his stable achieved with Knight Salute last season in this division, it wouldn't surprise if he was a serious candidate for the Triumph come March. Btw, the trainer apparently said that the horse which won the closing bumper on Sunday could be the best he has trained. Is the horse for sale? Mischief

Nice hurdling debut from the second. Mixed messages for the form from War Correspondent's Irish win, but he did bring winning form to the table.

Mr Freedom seemingly had his limitations exposed, but time will tell.
By:
sageform
When: 14 Nov 22 18:02
Nicholls entry was sure to be favourite but not based on any firm evidence while Scriptwriter had done everything right both on the flat and in his first run. This is usually a strong race, and it is very valuable for the time of year.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Nov 22 11:17
Methinks, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.45 Catterick

I just have the one qualifier in this, Methinks, who isn't an obvious one for this switch of code being by Showcasing, though there is some stamina on his dam's side, and he appears to stay at least a mile on the Flat having made the frame over that trip at Carlisle (good) in August. He has also been placed over 7f on soft ground at that track.

He was a selection on my Flat thread when he was a running-on third over 7f at Southwell in August, and I selected him on this thread when he made his hurdles debut over 2m1f at Sedgefield last month, when having been sent off at big odds he only got as far as the second hurdle under a 7lb claimer. He clearly has a bit to prove in this sphere, but hopefully he can at least get round this time with a fully-fledged jockey taking over in the saddle, and a chance is taken EW at big odds.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Nov 22 12:57
Methinks once again looked like he'd never seen a hurdle before in his life. There was some improvement, however, as on this occasion he made it to the third hurdle. Embarrassing.

Running P/L: +15.35 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Nov 22 10:07
Play By The Rules, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 12.40 Exeter

A couple of 3YO races today, but I just have the one qualifier running which goes in the opener at Exeter.

Play By The Rules has a similar profile to his stablemate I Have A Voice, who also joined Nigel Hawke this season from Jim Bolger having been in some sort of form when last seen on the Flat in Ireland, but after a break completely bombed on their stable debut. I Have A Voice has gradually recovered his fitness and has gone on to win a juvenile hurdle, whereas Play By The Rules has been absent since his stable debut three months ago, so fitness has to be taken on trust.

There is enough encouragement from his form in Ireland (where he probably ran better than the bare result suggested on his final start there) and pedigree to think Play By The Rules should be fine stamina-wise for this switch of code, so while there is a concern that he may need this return to action, a chance is taken at the odds.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 20 Nov 22 10:30
Yes,George think we can most probably get the fav beat here,my two Cabrakan and outsider Romancero Le Dun not an auspicious start to hurdle racing and bad drift in betting,but trainer does ok at track
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 20 Nov 22 10:43
GL George and Tangle

Laid the Fav & backed Cabrakan
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Nov 22 10:49
Good luck tanglefoot and DG
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Nov 22 10:58
omancero Le Dun was in the field for a race that was a winning one for the thread at Warwick when the selection was Non Stop.

Romancero Le Dun looked noticeably green on the way to post, or you could even say 'backward', so perhaps it's not surprising he then got the form comment "in rear, ran green and unseated rider 1st".

At least he should be a bit more clued up today.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Nov 22 12:50
Well done tanglefoot and DG

The first two pretty much controlled it throughout

Not a bad hurdling debut from my pick in third who'll probably improve for it

Running P/L: +13.35 pts
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 22 14:11
stable form seems to be the key still. Jane Williams 3 wins and a second from last four runs. It is almost becoming "your turn next" although I realise that most trainers are only now running their best horses so it is logical that they will all run well at the same time.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Nov 22 10:38
Tessy Lad, 1pt win @ 11-4, 11.55 Newcastle
Freddy Robinson, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 11.55 Newcastle

Just the six runners for this juvenile hurdle and I have two qualifers. One looks an interesting recruit and the other may not be a forlorn hope, so I'll take them both against the field.

Tessy Lad would appear to have the better credentials of the pair, having won three times on the Flat this season at up to 12f and proving himself versatile regarding surface. He comes here in form having won his latest start at Wolverhampton, and he looks like he has the size and scope to take to this game.

Freddy Robinson has been a bit of a disappointment since shaping well on his reappearance at Pontefract (1 mile, g-f) back in early summer, though he might have had excuses on occasions on account of trip / going, and he probably ran better in a Racing League handicap at Windsor (1 mile, good) than the bare result suggested. It was just a seller that he was beaten in on his latest start at Redcar (1 mile, heavy) when finishing a close second, but he was a bit tight for room in the closing stages against the rail, and the winner has since been in good form over hurdles. He is the lowest-rated of these on the Flat and does have his stamina to prove, but he has shaped as though he will stay further than a mile on the Flat.

Of the others...

Cabrakan ran okay to finish second in what appeared a steadily-run 5-runner affair at Exeter last Sunday on his hurdles debut. He comes here fit with that initial experience under his belt and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Ring Of Beara has the highest Flat rating of these but didn't really progress for Richard Hughes. He last two starts have come at Glorious Goodwood and in the November Handicap (on his stable debut), so should at least find this company less demanding if taking to hurdles.

Swift Tuttle, who is rated in the 70s on the level, ran well to finish 4th of 14 at Doncaster (10f, heavy) last month on what turned out to be his final start for Brian Meehan, having since been sold for 13,000 gns. A tongue-tie is applied for the first time.

Super Stars, who has a bit to find with a few of these if Flat ratings are any guide, failed to win in eleven starts for the Johnstons, though did make the frame on four occasions. He has been sold for 17,000 gns since his lastest start and has been gelded ahead of his stable / hurdling debut.
By:
sageform
When: 26 Nov 22 11:18
I would just go for Swift Tuttle from a jumping yard in form. I can see that Richard Hughes has decided to run a few over hurdles, so Tessy Lad also makes sense.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 26 Nov 22 11:26
Good vibes for Cabrakan
By:
sageform
When: 26 Nov 22 11:46
but Cabrakan is a horse with decent flat form and a second over hurdles already so should be even money surely? It has cheekpieces on which is not encouraging.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Nov 22 11:55
Good luck sageform and tanglefoot
By:
sageform
When: 26 Nov 22 12:02
Experience worth 12lb in that race I think. Mine too free and didn't stay.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Nov 22 12:17
Well done tanglefoot.

All 6 were in close proximity two out, indicative perhaps that the winner had been allowed to dictate soft fractions, and he saw his race out well, as did the second Ring Of Beara.

In contrast it was disappointing that Tessy Lad didn't at least hang onto second place and his effort petered out in the closing stages.

My other selection Freddy Robinson ran okay in 4th place but on this evidence he's likely better off in handicaps once qualified rather than taking on higher-rated rivals off the Flat at level weights.

Running P/L: +10.35 pts
By:
tanglefoot
When: 26 Nov 22 12:22
Cheers George,another one from my friendly bookmaker.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Nov 22 10:07
Polyphonic, 1pt win @ 4-1, 12.40 Leicester

Polyphonic doesn't face an easy task here against the long odds-on Perseus Way, who finished runner-up on his hurdles debut in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham, but a chance is taken as he looks an interesting recruit to hurdling.

Polyphonic impressed when staying on strongly over 11f at Carlisle (good, g-s places) in August to win by eight lengths from one who had won two of his previous three starts, albeit he might have been flattered to an extent having dictated the fractions and led the field to the stands side in the home straight. He was then just touched on quicker ground at Haydock (11.5f, g-f) before disappointing on his final start for Karl Burke at Ayr. He is officially rated the same on the Flat as Perseus Way.

If memory serves, I think I'm right in saying that he was entered at the 5-day stage for the aforementioned Grade 2 hurdle that was won by his stablemate Scriptwriter, so hopefully that's an indicator that he has been working and schooling well for his new yard, and it will be interesting to gauge the market strength / weakness behind him come post time given his yard have that line of form with Perseus Way.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Nov 22 13:06
Perseus Way, who looked the bigger, stronger type when they were alongside each other down at the start, showed himself to be in a different league under this code.

Polyphonic, who was keen enough off the slow fractions early, slammed the breaks on at one the hurdles when he was allowed to stride on. He still then appeared to 'win' the battle for second against Fillyfudge, only to be done close home for that position by the closing Mr Rumbalicious.

Running P/L: +9.35 pts
By:
sageform
When: 27 Nov 22 13:41
It was a poor race run at a slow pace and Perseus Way still looked very green. He still confirmed the Cheltenham form although it would have been a major shock if he hadn't.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Dec 22 11:32
Apologise, 1pt win @ 5-2, 12.40 Market Rasen

Apologise created a good impression when stepped up in trip to 11.5f at Killarney(soft) in October on his handicap debut winning under 10-2, albeit the time was noticeably slower than the other division. He looks a good sort physically, and while he does have his stamina to prove over this trip which has an additional 162 yards due to rail movements, hopefully he'll be ready to roll after a 52 day break.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 01 Dec 22 12:27
Lightning Gesture 4 a flyer,gl George.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Dec 22 12:31
Good luck tanglefoot
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Dec 22 13:06
As formoftheace might say...Ff's.

It was there in the formbook, the one time Casi Crudo had encountered give on the Flat was arguably his best run when finishing third behind Mostly Cloudy, who went on to be rated 35lb higher. A son of Authorized with a 'roundy' action, he clearly relishes some give in the ground.

As for Apologise, he was held from some way out, looking a bit rusty off a break and his hurdling could have been more fluent at times. He plugged on for third but only past one who had tried to go with the first two and weakened after the last.

A watching brief for now to see which way he goes for his new yard.

Running P/L: +8.35 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Dec 22 11:39
Sabyinyo, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 1.10 Sandown

I have three qualifiers in this introductory hurdle where a French import is taking a chunk out of the market - Non Stop (who did the thread a favour when winning at Warwick), Planet Legend and Sabyinyo.

I'll let the prices dictate and take a chance on Sabyinyo. My first inclination was to put a line through him because of stamina concerns as he has been a free-goer on the Flat, but he might have won at Bath (g-f) over 11.5f on his debut with a more timely challenge, and his dam who is by Sixties Icon, is a full-sister to a hurdles winner and a half-sister to a five-time winner over jumps, so the stamina is there - IF he gives himself a chance to get home.

His form tailed off for Mick Channon, but he has joined a trainer who have done well with recruits from that source, including Mr Freedom, who has won three juvenile hurdles this season having joined his new yard with a lowly Flat rating. Sabyinyo comes out second-top rated on domestic Flat ratings (2lb lower than Planet Legend).  His pedigree is encouraging for handling soft ground, and might have needed the run when diappointing on such going when returning from a break at Newmarket in August.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 02 Dec 22 11:45
Thought the fav,George,should win,but gl for Sabyinyo
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Dec 22 11:49
He has the profile of a formidable opponent, tanglefoot.

He was wearing a tongue tie when he ran well in a Listed race on his debut at Auteuil, but evidently his new trainer doesn't think it's needed.

Good luck
By:
TheAnorak
When: 02 Dec 22 12:12
It's a very odd sort of Listed race when it's limited to horses that have never run. Nothing from that race has come out and won since and how good a race was it, considering that 9 of the 10 runners were covered by less than 10L at the finish. Kansas Du Berlais may well still be too much for this modest looking bunch, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him at odds on. Worth noting that since this race was converted to an Introductory Hurdle in 2016, four of the six winners had won their previous start over hurdles.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Dec 22 12:21
Thanks for the analysis of his French form, Anorak.

Are you surprised that he's well clear of Non Stop on RPRs?
By:
TheAnorak
When: 02 Dec 22 12:27
Yes I am - I assume it's because they rate the race based on the use of Listed in the title.
By:
Manoleeds
When: 02 Dec 22 12:28
Tony Calvin has put two up in the race, Saninyo and Penna Rossa with his analysis at https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/itv-races/friday-racing-tips-two-bets-in-the-2m-hurdle-for-tony-calvin-at-sandown-011222-166.html  . Good luck anyone playing
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Dec 22 12:39
Cheers, Anorak.

Thanks for the link, Manoleeds.

I hope they just let him roll along rather than try to restrain him if he's still inclined to run free, rather than fight him by trying to restrain him and wasting even more energy.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Dec 22 13:16
Very well done Tony Calvin

And well done Anorak, might have saved or won people a few quid there.
By:
Manoleeds
When: 02 Dec 22 13:16
As TC settles at betfair SP, that's a 89/1 winner for him !
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Dec 22 13:17
Thanks again for posting the link, Manoleeds, hopefully people who hadn't already seen Tony's column, threw a few quid at PR at big odds.
By:
sageform
When: 02 Dec 22 13:18
Small lay of the favourite paid off for once. Strange race to assess but Non Stop was giving 5lb.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 02 Dec 22 13:34
A growing list of imported flops from France this season and last. With a horse like the one we just watched, I'd always be asking the seller - If he's just finished 4th in a Listed race and prize money is much better in France, why are you so keen to sell?

A shame that most of our racing media just go along with the '4th in a Listed race, must be a good thing', without doing any proper research.
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