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George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread
George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread
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Only qualifier wins George
 My one to much to do,I thought they would get the fav beat there. |
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A bit of a form boost for Perseus Way's chance tomorrow, tanglefoot.
The 3YO I Have A Voice looked on the small side alongside his elders and wasn't up to it in open handicap company, having tried to make all and been headed some way from home. He lost places but didn't right away which might offer some hope for longer trips in this sphere, back on better ground. Running P/L: +2.35 pts |
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Plenty of action in the juvenile hurdling division with four 3YO races including the Grade 2 Finale Hurdle. Could be an expensive day!
 I don't have any qualifiers in the big one, but I have a number in the other races and also one going in open handicap company at Limerick. Puntastic, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 12.05 Leopardstown Showman, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.05 Leopardstown I've a couple of qualifiers in this at big prices and both are selected EW. It looked a good effort by Puntastic when pulling clear with two others (who have both won twice since) over 10f at Redcar (soft) back in early April, an effort that probably wanted marking up given he made his move into the race sooner than the other principals who were ridden more conservatively. He only had one further start for Jedd O'Keefe, when finishing only fourth of five on better ground over 11f at Hamilton in early June, though that form doesn't look too be bad with the winner having gone on to make the frame in a Royal Ascot handicap, and the runner-up having won twice since. He was returning form over 5 months off when I selected him on his stable / hurdles debut at Fairyhouse in the maiden won by Zarak The Brave, when it's likely that the run was needed and he did shape better on his latest start when finishing 7th of 22 at Navan, where he had today's favourite Tekao ahead of him in third. It could be handicaps will be on the agenda after today, but if he can take another step forward, then not out of the question that he could at least make the frame in this. Showman was consistent this year on the level without managing to win for Hughie Morrison, while showing himself versatile regarding surface. He's only rated in the 60s, so doesn't face an easy task on this switch to hurdling, but on the plus side, he handles an ease and has joined a yard that had a couple run well above market expectations at Leopardstown yesterday. Chaos Control, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 12.45 Kempton Dark Mystery, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 12.45 Kempton I've three qualifiers in this, Postmark, Chaos Control and Dark Mystery. I'm going to select the two at double-figure prices against the field. Chaos Control's three wins have come on the AW, including when successful on his stable debut over 12f at Wolverhampton late last month, but he has run well on turf on occasions, including over a mile at Bellewstown in August, when probably shaping better than the bare result from a wide draw. He wasn't without market support when obliging at the first time of asking for Stewart Edmunds, and hopefully he can keep up the good work for his jumps-orientated yard now switching code. Dark Mystery had suggested there were races to be won with him back in May when stepped up in trip to 14f at Sandown (g-f), when given how freely he raced and how the race panned out, he probably did well to only be beaten just over three lengths. He then ran poorly twice for whatever reason, but did come good when winning over 12f at Newbury (good) in August. He then ran just OK in two further runs for Ian Williams. He's joined a rookie trainer whose first two runners on the AW this month ran well to make the frame, when both like this one were coming off short breaks. This will be his first runner over hurdles, and soft ground for Dark Mystery is a slight concern, but he should at least be fine stamina-wise. Play By The Rules, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 2.15 Wetherby I have three quailifers in this, Kincade, Planet Legend and Play By The Rules, and the latter gets the vote at the prices. I thought he shaped better than his finishing position suggested on what turned out to be his final start for Jim Bolger, over 10.5f at Sligo (g-s) back in May. It's likely the run was needed on his stable debut on the level over 12f at Ffos Las (good) in August, but he was then absent for another three months before making his hurdles debut last month at Exeter (g-s) when finishing third of five in what admittedly was a steadily-run affair, though the runner-up has since won a class 2 hurdle at Newcastle to give the form a boost. Play By The Rules is entitled to come on for that initial experience and hopefully can give a good account here. Of my other two qualifiers, Kincade was disappointing when a beaten favourite on his hurdles debut at Musselburgh last month, given he went there fit and without any stamina concerns, though his hurdling did let him down. He clearly needs to improve in that department. Planet Legend ran some fair races in defeat on the Flat this season, and there was a late market move for him on his hurdling / stable debut last month at Sandown in a class 2 introductory hurdle, but unfortunately for his backers he only got as far as the first hurdle. Bright Blue, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 3.15 Limerick (5 PLACES) Bright Blue has already been selected twice on the thread, and after showing some promise on his first two starts over hurdles, it's likely handicaps have been on the agenda following a further couple of qualifying runs.He now switches to open company for his handicap debut, but as he's coming off a two month break and conditions are expected to be testing, he can only be a tentative selection. I think he does want an ease in the ground based on his Flat form, but whether he wants it this testing remains to be seen. There are a couple of other 3YOs in this, notably Thetys, who was ahead of the selection when they both finished in mid-div at Galway in October. She has since finished 5th of 22 in a Navan maiden won by today's leading Finale Hurdle fancy Comfort Zone. |
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Toute Chic 2.15 Wetherby,interesting runner,winner on flat in France failed in two outings over hurdles another chance
GL George with your selections |
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Good luck tanglefoot.
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A tough day for the thread with just over 8 pts lost. Chaos Control went close but it wasn't to be. It was a make or break day for the thread, and with three winning seasons behind me doing this, the reality is I'm staring a losing one straight in the face this time around.
Showman, who was any price ya liked, had the early lead when running out after the second flight. Puntastic was prominent on what appeared a steady enough pace, so no excuses about where he was positioned, but had been headed just before making a mistake at the last flight and that was him done with. He should find more realistic opportunities in handicaps. Dark Mystery, who was fresh to post, led until turning into the home straight. He should be all the better for this first run in over 3 months and will probably prefer better ground. Chaos Control was never too far away and gave it a good shot. He looked to have been handed the race briefly when the eventual winner met the last hurdle wrong, but he couldn't hang on having a hit a low in-running of 1.13. Play By The Rules jumped big and careful at some of the hurdles, which didn't help, and he wasn't able to go with them up the straight. It's probably worth giving a mention to another of my qualifiers in this, Planet Legend, who was a bit erratic at his hurdles and might not have been on the best of the ground around the inner, so wasn't disgraced in the circumstances. It will be interesting to see how this form works out, could be worth keeping an eye on. Bright Blue got a forward ride but wasn't able to go with them when it mattered. Running P/L: -5.85 pts |
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Felt for you with Chaos Control -if my horse is in the lead and the second makes a hash of the last, somehow the second gets up. But if my horse is second at the last looking as if it just needs a good jump to win , it will get it all wrong and fail to get up.
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Potentially not a bad fillies-only juvenile hurdle, with the two who were both formerly trained by Sir Mark Prescott looking interesting recruits to this sphere.
Lady Valentine, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.20 Doncaster I've just the one qualifier in this fillies-only juvenile and that's Lady Valentine. She might not have achieved that much when winning a 3-runner contest over 7f at Leicester on quick ground in the summer of last year, but given her physique and greenness, it wasn't unreasonable to think she could go on to better things. As it turned out, she didn't offer much in two further starts as a 2YO for Tom Dascombe, and failed to win in seven starts for Hugo Palmer this season. However, she did run respectably on her last two starts when stepped up in trip to 14f on softish ground, which would augur well for this switch of code. She has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, of which the top-rated is Pretending with a mark of 80. She was bought out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard for 44,000 gns, and is an unknown quantity on turf. She finished second over 14f to a useful AW performer at Wolverhampton when last seen in October. The current short-priced favourite is Pretending's former stablemate Arclight, who ran well in a class 2, 12f handicap at Newmarket on good to soft on her latest start in October, and obviously commands respect having joined the Henderson yard. Greyval won twice over 12f on the Flat in France, and is another who has joined a respected yard. Of those with hurdling experience, Eclairant Le Monde's second to The Churchill Lad at Catterick last month, now looks a lot better in light of that one's fine effort in the Finale Hurdle. Chicago Gal made a satisfactory hurdles debut at Catterick when finishing second to a gelding who subsequently wasn't disgraced under a penalty in class 2 company at Kempton this week. Ardbraccan, who also ran in that Catterick race, having been easy enough to back, only got as far as the first hurdle. |
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Unfortunately, Lady Valentine didn't enjoy this first experience of hurdling and was beaten after jumping two flights of hurdles. The improved runs on the Flat this season came on easier ground, so softer ground may help, but can only be watched for the time being.
No surprise that one of the ex-Prescott horses obliged from what we knew about them on the Flat, however, Greyval, who has got a bit of size about her and was well backed close to the off, may be the one to take from the race. Running P/L: -7.85 pts |
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Tidal Storm, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.45 Taunton
I've three qualifiers in this, all making their hurdling debuts, State Legend, Tidal Storm and Major Gatsby, and with the latter having more to prove on the stamina-front, I'll go with Tidal Storm at the prices. Tidal Storm was having just his second run at 12f when overcoming a tough enough trip and showing a good attitude to prevail at Kempton in August. He might have had excuses in his two runs since on synthetic surfaces, having helped force the pace over 11f in a Racing League at Southwell, and then when never involved under a hold-up ride upped in trip to two miles at Kempton. This will be Ed Walker's first runner over hurdles, and Tidal Storm has to prove he can win on turf, though on the plus side, his half-brother Cheng Gong did manage to win a low-grade handicap at this track. |
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George,
Not quite his first - Walker ran a 95 rated flat horse called Copernicus in three novice hurdles with zero success in 2014/15. If Blueking D'Oroux ran to his French form, he'd have no problems winning this, but the market seems convinced he won't! |
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Thank you, Anorak. That'll teach me for taking the spotlight writer's word for it!
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I only knew because I was once advising an owner that had a couple of horses with Walker in 2015-16, so researched his form at the time.
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Wd George good third,got that race wrong fancied the fav
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You got the price George...very well played
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Cheers.
Yes, Tattcorner, he was generally a 20s shot last night when I looked, and just before posting this morning, he was out to 40s / 50s. The Betfair SP was shorter than the industry's at the off, so clearly someone was expecting a decent effort. The market told a tale regarding the fav. Sadly, Trojan Horse appeared to suffer a fatal injury. And in a race that took its toll with them finishing well strung out, Fourofakind, who helped make it a test on the sharp end, kept on rolling for second, caught only by the conservatively-ridden shock winner. So Harry Derham evidently getting his early runners very fit. Running P/L: +1.15 pts |
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Look forward to reading this thread daily George , really interesting stuff.
Have always had a more than basic interest in the baby hurdle races being myself a big double digits player only as generally most horses can win plus the improvement from one race to another can be more than dramatic , just like 2yo races. Great thread |
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WD George
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Cheers DG & Hayden
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Your Honor, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 1.22 Punchestown
A maximum field for this 3YO hurdle, in which I have just the one qualifier, Your Honor, who like yesterday's selection is also 50-1 at the time of posting, but I'm not anticipating any significant market move for this one, as he doesn't face an easy task if Flat ratings are any guide, in a race that appears to have some depth to it. He was in good form at his level in the summer and autumn, winning at Sligo (10f, yielding) in August, and then following a couple of poor runs when he might have had excuses on account of ground and then track position, he returned to form with a win at Killarney (11.5f, soft), before ending his Flat season by finishing second of 18 at Galway (12f, heavy). That latter effort was off a mark of just 63, which makes him one of the lowest-rated off the level in this, but on the plus side he should handle the ground and he knows how to win, so he gets a speculative vote. Of those with a domestic Flat rating, a number are rated in the 70s, and the top-rated with a mark of 84 is Galway (soft, 8.5f) maiden winner Saraqael, though he didn't offer much in two subsequent starts and has his stamina to prove for this test. The market is headed by the Willie Mullins-trained French import Sinbad Le Marin, who won a 10f maiden at Chantilly (good) in May on his fourth start, from a subsequent winner. He obviously has to be respected coming from this yard, though does have to prove himself in the conditions; no doubt the market will tell a tale close to the off. Of those with hurdling experience, Calico was second to Dixon Cove in a Listed race at Aintree on her latest start, and that form received a boost when the winner was only narrowly denied in the Finale Hurdle. Sir Allen is only rated 68 on the Flat, but the market predicted he was going to run a big race on his hurdling debut at Cork (2m1f, yld-soft) and he only found a well-backed Willie Mullins-trained French import too good. Three of these finished behind him, including Teagarden Jazz, who kept on well for third place under sympathetic handling. Libby finished fourth and is entitled to come on for the experience but needs to if she is to reverse the form. The other one in the market is Morning Soldier, who finished ahead of Calico when finishing second over C/D in November on his hurdling debut on yielding ground. The winner Nusret has since finished a respectable third behind the very promising Lossiemouth in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown. Morning Soldier has to prove himself on today's deeper ground, though. |
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A Betfair SP of 171 for Your Honor, who didn't shape too badly in 7th place, as he tried to challenge from mid-div in a race where nothing got into it from behind.
The winner Sir Allen had been surprisingly strong in the betting on his hurdles debut when finishing second, and he backed that effort up here. Sinbad Le Marin didn't come in for the market support that some of these Mullins-trained juveniles have, though he still ran alright to make the frame. Running P/L: -0.85 pts |
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Action Motion, 1pt each-way @ 16-1, 12.27 Cork
I'll take a chance again on Action Motion who was selected when he made his stable & hurdles debut over a furlong further trip at this course last month, when he was never in it but did keep on pleasingly to finish 7th of the 20 runners. This race is open to five-year-olds too, and with a Mullins-trained long odds-on favourite in opposition, it could be Action Motion will be brought along with handicaps in mind, but as he showed sufficient promise on that hurdling debut, a chance is taken EW at the odds. |
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Very well done
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Boom! Well done George B.
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WD GB
56 on here |
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Wd George,would have sworn the fav would win the race.
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Cheers guys.
I actually had two qualifiers running today, the other was I Have A Voice, who I had selected 12 days ago when he made his handicap debut against his elders at Wetherby, where he finished comfortably held. I wondered afterwards (in the second post at the top of this page) if he might want a longer trip. Same trip today but on a stiffer track, however, I wasn't sure about the ground, so left it, but what a revelation he proved to be, made all, galloped on relentlessly. Oh well, there ya go, they make fools of us sometimes. But all's well that ends well, and Action Motion built on his promising debut when given a sympathetic ride at Cork last month. Betfair SP of 55-1, so I moved the market with this one  Running P/L: +23.15 pts |
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George
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Different gravy ,as I have said before .....so many hapless tipster paid for being a poor imitation. They revel in the good days and not a peep about the bad ones ....no cumulative total.
well done George. |
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Nice one George
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Thanks again chaps.
Now for the tricky bit, trying to keep the P/L going in the right direction |
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Very well done George. Did you notice that Mr Freedom ran second in a handicap at Plumpton? At least he finished well and didn't try to run out as he had done the last twice. I still think he has ability.
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Yes sageform, his wins have been on good ground, so maybe they can win another with him on better ground in the spring?
And given his Flat rating of 53, I'd be surprised if they can't exploit that. He's only had one chance on the level for Sheena West, and that was off a break on his stable debut at Windsor, when he didn't run too badly. |
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A couple of juvenile hurdles today, a decent looking contest to open the card at Fairyhouse and a four-runner affair to open the card at Kempton. I'm going to take a chance on one against the odds-on jolly in the latter.
Virtuoso, 1pt win @ 13-2, 12.20 Kempton Virtuoso has a bit to find if Flat ratings are any guide but what she may have in her favour is that she evidently handles soft ground and stays well to judge from her success over 14f in an apprentice handicap at Ffos Las in September when making all and keeping on strongly, on what was her first attempt at that trip. Her only subsequent run for Andrew Balding was when disappointing at Southwell over 12f when unpenalised but conditions might not have suited. She starts out for Donald McCain today having been sold for 14,000 gns, and while there is a concern she may need a stiffer test over hurdles than two miles round Kempton, hopefully the soft ground will prove a leveller. Regally Blonde is also a qualifier for me in this and she's only rated 2lb inferior to the favourite on the Flat. She won a 13f handicap at Down Royal (good) in July (finished second on the day but was awarded the race at a later date), and showed her versatility regarding going when finishing a fair second over the same C/D on yielding to soft when last seen in September. She's since been sold for 62,000 gns out of Andy Oliver's yard and makes her debut here for Ben Case. It's a bit disconcerting to see a tongue-tie applied and it remains to be seen how testing she wants the ground, but they've found a realistic opportunity for her hurdles debut. It was probably a fair fillies' hurdle that Arclight won on her debut for Nicky Henderson at Doncaster (good) last month and she's clearly the one to beat here, but she does have a 7lb penalty to carry and this will be the softest ground she has encountered. Rank outsider All About Me has offered little in two juvenile hurdles and the only straw to clutch at is that she may appreciate today's softer ground. |
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Virtuoso, who looked on the small side down at the start alongside her rivals, found herself outclassed and was probably lucky to finish a distant second with Regally Blonde departing the race early.
She's by a sire whose progeny tend to handle soft ground well and given the manner of her Ffos Las win, I was reasonably optimistic of a good run today, but no, got that one wrong. Running P/L: +22.15 pts |
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Mr Freedom declared for the 2.50 at Newbury. They have lowered their sights from the Triumph
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HEAVY, Waterlogged in places (GoingStick: Chase 4.9, Hurdle 4.7) (INSPECTION Tuesday 8.30am)
Prospects of being on don't sound too promising, sageform. |
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Already off so I wait to see where they will go. It could dry up a lot in the next 10 days.
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sageform, I see Mr Freedom is running today on the flat.
I think he'd be a good thing on grass but the Poly' is an unknown. |
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Still an even bigger certainty George having lowered his sights from a listed hurdle to a Class 6 flat race!!!. Luckily I had a second bite having taken a very skinny 4.5 this morning. Made my week.
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