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George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread
George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread
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Replies: 336
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George any thoughts Fontwell 3.25?
Hill Station has a new owner since last run, same trainer. |
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mrcombustible, tbh because I don't have anything running in it from my Flat notebook I've not had a close look.
It'll be interesting to see how Hill Station goes in the betting this time because the market vibes weren't particularly encouraging last time on the back of what likely would have been a winning debut over hurdles. He was well beaten on soft ground on his first two career starts at massive odds when nothing was expected, but given his sire, he probably won't mind if the rain arrives. |
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Thanks George
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Grizabella, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.45 Gowran
A maximum 16-runner field for this 3YO hurdle and I've just the one qualifier, Grizabella, who was selected when finishing 5th of 13 on her hurdles debut over 2m1f at Killarney. She didn't shape too badly in being one of five to pull clear up the straight, however, it did leave a question mark over her stamina but hopefully this drop back to a bare two miles will help. Mixed messages from the form but the second home has won twice since. She has since been a disappointing beaten favourite back on the Flat over 9.5f at Clonmel (good), but her form on the level would suggest she won't mind being back on easier ground. |
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I know that very few of the 3yos running so far are much good, but Mr Freedom won 10 lengths giving 12 lb and more yesterday so must be above average. Sheena West has done this before with 3yos that were useless on the flat.
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I suspect if and when he goes back onto the Flat, sageform, he might prove to be a bit better than a 53-horse!
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Grizabella could only finish 6th of the 16 runners. Handicaps look the way forward after another run unless they can find a fillies' only race where they're not running into 92-rated horses off the Flat.
Running P/L: +5.15 pts |
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They don't always improve back on the flat George. Many years ago, I had 25% share in Faustino. a long time flat maiden for Paul Cole. He won 5 jump races for us trained by Philip Hobbs, who was tempted to try him back on the flat at Bath and booked Pat Eddery. He started favourite but after half a mile with no hurdles, he virtually pulled himself up!
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Medyaf an inspired buy to go hurdling. 110,000 yearling bought for 9000 but the flat form was hopeless!
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Tbf, he'd only had the one chance on turf previously, when he might have needed the run / experience on debut.
There's a four runner juvenile hurdle to open the card at Huntingdon tomorrow. My only qualifier is Exciting News, who was a selection when she won on her hurdles debut, but at odds-on this time, think I'll pass. |
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Can horses be autistic? Some of the ones I backed seemed to run the same way repeatedly.
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Agree on Exciting News. Not sure about her stamina but Huntingdon should be OK.
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Never going from 3 out. Pick the bones out of that form George. I still think Mr Freedom is the best 3yo out so far.
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An absolute shocker, sageform. The race might have come soon enough just ten days on from Market Rasen, which had come off an 84 day break.
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Never No Trouble, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 3.25 Warwick (4 PLACES)
Never No Trouble has been selected on the thread for both her hurdles starts to date and she has run okay on both occasions. The latest of them when she had Mr Freedom (who has won three times since) over 8l behind her, looks a lot better now, but no doubt that one has just improved massively since. The main concern I have about her chance today, as well as being pitched in against mainly experienced older opposition, is that based on my notebook run for her on the Flat in a race that worked out quite well, she may want easier ground than seems likely to prevail today. She's also running from out of the handicap, but Peter Kavanagh takes 5lb off and she also gets the 17lb wfa allowance. Flintstone, another 3YO running in this, currently heads the betting. Intriguing Lady, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 5.40 Worcester (4 PLACES) I wasn't going to bother selecting this one because I'm not convinced this code is for her given my notebook run for her came on the AW, and there hasn't been much hope in her runs over hurdles to date, however, she did show some aptitude for this game when finishing second behind a subsequent winner at Newton Abbot in June when ridden more patiently. She ran in handicap company on her latest start when finishing well held from 13lb out of the handicap. She's 'only' 3lb out of the handicap this time in a contest confined to filles and mares, so gets a very speculative vote at big odds with four places on offer. |
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Third place for Never No Trouble, who seemed to be travelling well on the home bend but couldn't match the first two where it mattered.
Not a bad run at huge odds from Intriguing Lady who was a bit outpaced in the home straight before keeping on quite well to close up in fifth place. This run would suggest she does have the stamina for at least two miles over hurdles when ridden with a bit of patience. Running P/L: +3.35 pts |
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There are a couple of juvenile hurdles today. I don't have any qualifiers running in the Kempton race, but have 4 in the Sedgefield contest.
My Sedgefield 4 are My Brother Jack (who did the thread a favour when making the frame at big odds over C/D on his hurdling debut), Octopus, Methinks and Hulton Ranger. As there are stamina doubts more so about Hulton Ranger, I'm going to take a chance each-way on the middle two at the prices. Octopus, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 1.30 Sedgefield Methinks, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 1.30 Sedgefield I noted Octopus on what turned out to be his final start for Kevin Philippart De Foy at Leicester over 10f (g-f) back in May, when from a wide draw and in first-time cheekpieces he probably did too much too soon and I thought in the circumstances he'd probably run better than the bare result suggested. He wasn't then seen again for over four months when he made his stable debut in a heavy ground 13f handicap at Ayr ten days ago, when he was beaten a long way from home and finished tailed off. He has a bit to prove now given the absence, stable switch and that shocker at Ayr just ten days ago, but he might not have handled conditions then, so hopefully the ground will be more suitable today. I did notice that he'd been entered for a juvenile hurdle prior to running at Ayr, so presumably a hurdling campaign has been the plan. Methinks was a selection on my Flat thread when he made the frame at big odds over 7f at Southwell towards the end of August. Being by Showcasing, this switch of code raises a big question regarding stamina. He seemed to stay the mile round Carlisle on good ground in early August when he had plenty of use made of him. There is some stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree, so while he has to prove he can stay this 2m1f journey, a chance is taken each-way at the odds. My Brother Jack was no match for McTigue when finishing second over C/D on his hurdling debut, but the winner, who has a Flat rating in the high-90s, came out yesterday and won a Grade 2 hurdle at Auteuil. The former Aidan O'Brien-trained Scriptwriter has a Flat rating of 102 and has joined a stable that did well with its juvenile hurdlers last season, so if retaining that sort of ability and taking to hurdles following an absence, 62,000 gns sale, and a gelding operation, the others will be playing for places at best. Eclairant Le Monde and Cianciana are next best on Flat ratings, both being rated 67, and they receive the 7lb fillies' allowance today. The former was turned over at 11-10 on her hurdling debut having raced freely in a four-runner Cartmel contest won by one who arrived in winning form from the AW; a hood may help her settle better today. Cianciana has won twice on the AW at up to 10f, and has twice made the frame on turf over 10f on a sound surface. |
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Not one of my better days. Methinks only got as far as the second hurdle, and Octopus was beaten before the home turn.
Running P/L: -0.65 pts |
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Decided to have a bit on My Brother Jack who ran well but was beaten by a high class flat horse who jumped adequately. Could be decent form.
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Bright Blue, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.08 Galway
I just have the one qualifier in this 3YO hurdle that opens the Galway card and it's Bright Blue, who has already been a selection twice on the thread when finishing fourth on his first two starts since switching codes. He seemed to hurdle fine on his debut but his hasn't been the most fluent since, so could do with brushing up his technique, while he has work to do to reverse form from last time with Common Practice. I think he might appreciate racing on softer ground than he's had the chance to so far over hurdles, though whether he wants it as deep as it's forecast to be today remains to be seen. It could be handicaps will offer more realistic opportunites further down the line, but he's given another chance at a double-figure price. |
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Never in it, fair to say one for handicaps after that.
Running P/L: -2.65 pts |
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Non Stop, 1pt win @ 12-1, 1.00 Warwick
Non Stop is my only qualifier in this. His best form has come over a mile on the AW, and he's yet to race beyond that distance, so a bit to prove on this switch of code. However, he is out of an Authorized mare who won over 12f on soft ground, and his half-sister was a winner in France over 14f on soft, so there is encouragement in his pedigree for both turf and stamina. Of his two turf starts to date, one came on his debut when the experience was probably needed and the other over a trip (6f) that was likely too sharp for him. If Flat ratings are any guide then he does have a bit to find with three of these, but hopefully as he has been with a jumps yard for his Flat career, he'll at least have been well schooled. |
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Massive drifter
 - great shout! Well done! |
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Cracker GB
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Brilliant GB...
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WD again George, no stopping you under both codes
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Cheers all.
The market vibes (Betfair SP 26-1) suggested he might just be there to have a nice round of hurdling and get the experience under his belt, but not a bit of it, never too far away and jumped well in the main. For a horse who's been running round in low-grade AW handicaps, he looks to have the size to go on under this code. A fright at the last when he landed a bit awkwardly, which gave the eventual second a better chance of catching him, but thankfully he held on. Running P/L: +15.35 pts |
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Missed your post there George. Arghh! Well done. Usually have a good look at Tizzards. I left the race alone, so no damage done.
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Puntastic, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 1.22 Fairyhouse
I have two qualifers in this - Grizabella, who's been a selection on the thread for both her hurdle starts and is looking one for handicaps at this stage, and the selection Puntastic. It looked a good effort by Puntastic when pulling clear with two others (who have both won twice since) over 10f at Redcar (soft) back in early April, an effort that probably wanted marking up given he made his move into the race sooner than the other principals who were ridden more conservatively. He only had one further start for Jedd O'Keefe, when finishing only fourth of five on better ground over 11f at Hamilton, though that form doesn't look too be bad with the winner going on to make the frame in a Royal Ascot handicap, and the runner-up having won twice since. He's returning from over five months off today so fitness has to be taken on trust, but he appears to handle soft ground well and has shaped as though he should have the stamina for this. |
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Morning George,
You may have already noticed this, but just in case, Nicholls entry for the Cheltenham juvenile on Saturday, Blueking D'Oroux, also has the option of the French 3yo hurdle championship, the Prix Camberceres at Auteuil on Sunday. Not a race that often attracts runners from the UK, although the Nmkt trained Tidal Fury did win it in 2005. |
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I remember having a big bet on Tidal Fury in a Carlisle novice chase, didn't do much after that neither did his trainer Jonathan Jay.
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Morning Anorak & DG
Thanks for that, Anorak, a good spot. I'll watch with interest. Maybe he noticed Emmet Mullins winning a nice pot in France recently with the 3YO McTigue, and thought 'I'll have some of that'! Presumably if he went there and won, there'd be a premium too to collect with the horse being French-bred. Good memory, DG. |
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Wow. Zarak the brave might be very good on that evidence. Looked beaten 3 out but strolled past them.
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Indeed, sageform. He'd drifted a bit in the betting this morning but come post time he was heavily supported.
Interestingly, the second, who was making his racecourse debut, the market screamed he was going to run a race, and he's duly finished a good second in what time will probably show was a strong heat. As for my selection, Puntastic, he was easy enough to back, having come in for a bit of support when his chance was talked up by the RTV pundit, he's gone off at a Betfair SP of 86-1. I wouldn't give up on him just yet, probably one for handicaps in due course, or maybe even back on the Flat next season. Running P/L: +13.35 pts |
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Appeared to run out of gas from 2 out George but that might have been lack of sufficient ability rather than stamina. He was only 2 lengths behind the winner 3 out! The Hereford race taught us nothing apart from that Dixon Cove can jump.
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Nicholls has opted for Cheltenham - Mctigue for E and Aghaboy for W Mullins run at Auteuil.
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Thanks for the update, Anorak. Something to look forward to on Saturday.
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Intriguing Lady, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 1.40 Plumpton
I'm going to give another chance to Intriguing Lady who has already cost the thread a few points. She's massively up against it in this seller on official ratings, but does at least come here in some sort of form, having kept on well to close on the principals in a thirteen-runner handicap at Worcester (2m, good) two starts back, and last time at Ffos Las (2m4f handicap, g-s) when showing up well for a long way before her stamina gave way. It's likely that a place will be her best hope in this, but hopefully all eight will line up and she can at least challenge for minor honours. |
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1.40 Kalaya 100/1 and City Derby 3/1,gl
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Thankfully all 8 stood their ground and Intriguing Lady managed to sneak into the frame.
Running P/L: +17.35 pts |