Apologies, you were not sixth. I misread your post!

Monitoring decs for Friday - just the seven W Mullins runners declared in the Triumph!

I've always regarded that 35lb difference theory as rubbish, especially when applied to juvenile hurdlers. I've seen far too many moderate flat performers transformed by eight flights of hurdles into stars. And plenty of top class flat horses that went to pieces and couldn't even match their flat rating over hurdles.

My favourite examples would be Mysilv - who could have been bought for £8k after being beaten in a Nottingham claimer. And Fair Along, who changed hands twice for £6k after AW selling races.

It might be an OK figure as an average, but most horses aren't average.

Apologise, 1pt each-way @ 33-1, 2.25 Musselburgh (4 PLACES)

A competitive field for the final of the Grey Bomber Juvenile Hurdle Series. I have three qualifiers who have been selected previously on the thread - Planet Legend, Freddy Robinson and Apologise - and I'm going to select the latter at the prices.

Apologise is a sizable sort who appealed as the type to win more races when scoring on his handicap debut when stepped up in trip to 11.5f Killarney in October, on what turned out to be his final start for Andrew Slattery.

It has to be said his hurdling campaign so far has been generally disappointing having been a well beaten favourite on his stable debut at Market Rasen in December and then having failed to threaten in three further starts since. However, there was more encouragement on his penultimate run when highly tried and finishing fourth in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock last month, albeit his finishing position owed plenty to others failing to complete and having just kept on from some way back having never been put into the heat of the battle. He has work to do to reverse the form with the second Cianciana but a 16lb pull will hopefully help.

Apologise was weak in the betting and failed to build on that effort when finishing last of four at this track on his latest start over the 1m7.5f trip, having been held up and not knocked about up the home straight.

He clearly has a bit to prove in this sphere but the step up in trip to 2m1.5f may help and given when he won the Flat he was ridden prominently, perhaps he will be kept closer to the pace this time.

GL George

A dismal effort from Apologise who was kept closer to the pace this time in mid-div but his hurdling left a lot to be desired and he soon lost his position and was struggling in rear.

Running P/L: +54.11 pts

Thank you, Billy.

Well that's it for another season, and the thread did eventually return a respectable profit for a fourth consecutive season, but had to wait until after the turn of the year to turn things around, which is a little surprising, because as I'm dealing with horses off the Flat from last year, then in theory, you'd expect any advantage to come in the early part of the season when the selections have got the race-fitness and perhaps the the more NH-bred types are either too inexperienced or won't be seen until later on.

The thread ends with a profit of 54.11 points at the early prices / B.O.G, or 64.55 points at Betfair SP after 2% commission. The top-priced winners were Play By The Rules 28-1 (-15p Rule 4 deduction), Action Motion 20-1 and Non Stop 18-1.

Date	Selection	Stake	0dds	Fin Pos	P/L	Betfair SP -2%
04-Jun	Intriguing Lady	1 EW	14	0	-2	-2
01-Jul	Intriguing Lady	1	12	0	-1	-1
10-Jul	Rolypolymoly	1	8	2	-1	-1
15-Jul	The Insider	1	4.5	1	4.5	3.82
24-Jul	Rolypolymoly	1	2.75	1	2.75	1.35
28-Jul	Never No Trouble	1	4	0	-1	-1
18-Aug	Never No Trouble	1	2.5	2	-1	-1
19-Aug	Bright Blue	1 EW	33	0	-2	-2
19-Aug	Grizabella	1 EW	8.5	0	-2	-2
09-Sep	Bright Blue	1 EW	7.5	0	-2	-2
18-Sep	I Have A Voice	1	5.5	0	-1	-1
24-Sep	Exciting News	1	2	1	1.4	1
27-Sep	My Brother Jack	1 EW	50	2	11.5	9.41
01-Oct	Grizabella	1 EW	16	0	-2	-2
06-Oct	Never No Trouble	1 EW	6	3	0.2	-0.11
06-Oct	Intriguing Lady	1 EW	66	0	-2	-2
16-Oct	Methinks	1 EW	66	0	-2	-2
16-Oct	Octopus	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
29-Oct	Bright Blue	1 EW	12	0	-2	-2
01-Nov	Non Stop	1	18	1	18	25.92
08-Nov	Puntastic	1 EW	22	0	-2	-2
14-Nov	Intriguing Lady	1 EW	25	3	4	1.21
18-Nov	Methinks	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
20-Nov	Play By The Rules	1 EW	20	0	-2	-2
26-Nov	Tessy Lad	1	2.75	0	-1	-1
26-Nov	Freddy Robinson	1 EW	14	0	-2	-2
27-Nov	Polyphonic	1	4	0	-1	-1
01-Dec	Apologise	1	2.5	0	-1	-1
02-Dec	Sabyinyo	1 EW	10	0	-2	-2
11-Dec	Action Motion	1 EW	100	0	-2	-2
26-Dec	I Have A Voice	1 EW	11	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Puntastic	1 EW	66	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Showman	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Chaos Control	1 EW	12	2	1.8	2.25
27-Dec	Dark Mystery	1 EW	11	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Play By The Rules	1 EW	18	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Bright Blue	1 EW	25	0	-2	-2
29-Dec	Lady Valentine	1 EW	12	0	-2	-2
30-Dec	Tidal Storm	1 EW	50	3	9	0.63
31-Dec	Your Honor	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
07-Jan	Action Motion	1 EW	20	1	24	59.1
14-Jan	Virtuoso	1	6.5	2	-1	-1
30-Jan	Puntastic	1 EW	16	0	-2	-2
30-Jan	Planet Legend	1	12	1	12	6.27
30-Jan	Ghasham	1	8	0	-1	-1
25-Feb	Rare Middleton	1 EW	7	3	0.4	0.61
02-Mar	Ghasham	1 EW	16	0	-2	-2
13-Mar	Play By The Rules	1 EW	28	1	28.56	17.09
14-Mar	Action Motion	1 EW	100	0	-2	-2
24-Mar	Apologise	1 EW	33	0	-2	-2
					54.11	64.55

That's easy to explain Manoleeds, in each of the first two seasons there was a 150-1 winner (and the average Betfair SP of the two worked out at around those odds). I'll have to try and find another next season!

Well done George