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2021 Flat Season - Selections from the Notebook

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Replies: 585
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Aug 21 09:06
Cheers PHS
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Aug 21 09:13
Balearic, 1pt win @ 8-1, 5.05 Newmarket

The three runner race Balearic won at Chepstow over 10f last month might not have been the strongest with the odds-on favourite possibly finding the ground quicker than ideal, and the second only managing a second place on the AW in three starts since, but it was Balearic's first attempt at the trip, the race seemed to be run a decent clip and he stayed on strongly to draw clear.

Balearic has since disappointed when stepped up further in trip to 12f at Salisbury, but he remains of interest being unexposed at trips in excess of a mile and the return to 10f may suit.


Captian Vallo, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 6.45 Redcar (4 PLACES)

Captain Vallo disappointed on his latest start at Doncaster (when behind today's rival Little Muddy) but it's possible the good to soft ground might not have been ideal. He had previously run well three starts back at Carlisle when finishing third of twelve (6f, good) behind a couple of older sprinters, and then won with more in hand (raised 8lb for 1.5l) than the winning margin suggested at Hamilton (6f, good) when pulling clear in class 6 company with one other. The form of that win isn't difficult to pick holes in, but the second Babe Alicious might have had excuses on the AW since, and the third Ireland's Eye had previously run well at Doncaster against a pace bias, and wasn't disgraced at Ripon recently when a selection on this thread.

The this looks quite competitive with a mix of experienced older handicappers and lightly-raced 3YOs in opposition, but Captian Vallo looks worth at least one more chance to prove he can be competitive in this higher grade.
By:
saddo
When: 28 Aug 21 10:32
GL George, going well I see. I've backed Little Muddy e.w.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Aug 21 10:45
Good luck saddo
By:
Virgin
When: 28 Aug 21 20:07
Wd George Grin gl ....
By:
PHS
When: 28 Aug 21 20:17
Hmm, dead-heat placer, WD with double the SP though.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Aug 21 20:41
Cheers Virgin & PHS.

He was probably unlucky not to go close to winning, just had to wait too long for a clear run, then he's finished off quite well.

Balearic a NR.

Running P/L: +81.07 pts
By:
PHS
When: 28 Aug 21 21:10

Aug 28, 2021 -- 8:17PM, PHS wrote:


Hmm, dead-heat placer, WD with double the SP though.


Just realised that as you bet 4 places, you get the place to full stake, I presume. If you'd bet with a firm only offering 3 places you would have only got the place to half your stake?

By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Aug 21 08:43
Indeed, PHS
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Aug 21 08:46
Iur Cinn Tra, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 2.30 Beverley

Iur Cinn Tra ran well to be third three starts back at Ripon (5f, good), and the form looks reasonable with the winner Super Cub not beaten far in a Newbury handicap on his next start off a mark of 78, and the fourth Lotus Rose winning a novice back at Ripon next time out.

Iur Cinn Tra then finished second to Mitbaahy over 5f at Thirsk (good), form which looks a lot better now in light of the winner's subsequent third in Listed company at the Ebor meeting.

The worry is that he has since disappointed in a Class 2 conditions race at Musselburgh when noticeably weak in the betting. However, as his mark of 73 looks workable, he's given a chance on his first start in nursery company.

Bahia Star, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 3.50 Yarmouth

Bahia Star should appreciate the return to a mile after probably shaping better than the bare result on her latest start over 7f at Chepstow,  when she wasn't helped by being drawn low and ending up racing away from the stands-rail, but kept on well enough.

Somekindasuperstar, 1pt win @ 16-1, 5.20 Beverley

A bit on the speculative side this. Somekindasuperstar didn't shape too badly on her debut for Jessica Macey and reappearance run at Nottingham last month (6f, good), when racing prominently before fading inside the final furlong and shaping as though the run was needed. She disappointed on her latest start at Redcar (6f, good), though a post-race examination found her to be lame on her right-fore.

She's not well drawn in 8 of 9 here, but interesting to see which way she goes for a trainer that has done remarkably well with Phoenix Star.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Aug 21 17:51
Not one of my better days.

Iur Cinn Tra was friendless again in the betting. He did stay on late and there is stamina on his dam's side, so maybe needs stepping up in trip.

Bahia Star - dismal.

Somekindasuperstar - no sign of improvement yet for her new yard. She's by Fast Company and her best run for her previous stable came on good to soft, so may need a softer surface.

Running P/L: +76.07 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Aug 21 09:07
Devon Envoy, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.15 Chepstow

Devon Envoy had quite a tough trip on his nursery debut over 5f at Chelmford three weeks ago, being three wide into the bend, not handling the turn and ending up wide into the straight, after which his jockey reported that the gelding had hung right-handed throughout. He's ended up beaten 8 lengths behind the winner, but he did stick on and in the circumstances wasn't disgraced. The second, Lucky Shake, has won a turf maiden since to give the form a boost.

Devon Envoy has been dropped 2lb and he's into a slightly lower grade today. He has to prove his effectiveness on turf and he was well held on his first two starts at Nottingham, but he might have needed the experience and was probably one for low grade nurseries at that point anyway. His draw in four is a slight worry if they come stands' side, but a chance is taken at the odds.
By:
the numbers seven
When: 30 Aug 21 14:38
Absolutely smashing it George. Well done.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Aug 21 14:44
Thank you, the numbers seven.

Just to say, that fella on track who did a Marco Tardelli-style celebration after the horse past the post, it wasn't me Laugh
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Aug 21 14:52
Running P/L: +92.87 pts
By:
PHS
When: 30 Aug 21 15:18
VWDWink
By:
Virgin
When: 30 Aug 21 15:42
Well done George Cool gl ...
By:
chavman
When: 30 Aug 21 18:46
WD george Cool

millman runners in rude health
By:
madhatters
When: 30 Aug 21 19:38
WD GB
By:
Tiger Tiger
When: 30 Aug 21 19:49
I agree with everyone else, awesome GB Cool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 Aug 21 08:57
Cheers guys
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 Aug 21 09:04
King's Castle, 1pt win @ 12-1, 4.00 Epsom

Not a lot to go at today on the Flat and I was going to pass, but I'm going to have a tentative pick on King's Castle, whose mark is now 15lb lower than his initial rating (when trained by William Haggas last season), and is 5lb lower than when finishing second at Salisbury in June, and has Rhys Clutterbuck taking a further 5lb off today.

The form of the Salisbury race could have worked out better perhaps, though the second King's Proctor was well handicapped on his old form and has since been running ok over hurdles, while the fifth Dark Scimitar did win on his next start.

Of his three runs since, it probably wasn't a bad run on his next start at Chester off the same mark despite finishing only 6th given the fourth horse was the bang-in-form Elhafei, and third was the unexposed 3YO Saligo Bay who sas won and then run well in defeat since. It's possible King's Castle then found the firm ground not to his liking at Bath, and last time at Newbury appeared to do far too much in front under an inexperienced amateur.
By:
Virgin
When: 31 Aug 21 16:10
Good effort George Sad gl ....
By:
robbierobot
When: 31 Aug 21 16:12
Great shot againHappy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 Aug 21 16:19
Ta. Thought he was he coming with a winning run down the outer (went odds-on IR) but the unexposed 3YO found plenty.

Running P/L: +91.87 pts
By:
stewarts rise
When: 31 Aug 21 16:42
Good run George, nice to see you're well up again!
By:
PHS
When: 31 Aug 21 18:04
The irony of going win only! I see the trainer had to give an explanation for the improvement. Don't see that often when they don't win.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 Aug 21 18:21
Cheers stewarts, good to see you back posting.

PHS, surprising, they could have looked at the form comments and figured it out, imo.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 31 Aug 21 18:50
I'm readying a transfer offer to the Lucky Pin Club for George.B that will smash the British transfer record. Grin
By:
PHS
When: 31 Aug 21 22:18

Aug 31, 2021 -- 6:04PM, PHS wrote:


The irony of going win only! I see the trainer had to give an explanation for the improvement. Don't see that often when they don't win.


Only 7 runners I see; my win only comment out of order then.

By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Sep 21 08:38
Thanks WP, four cans of stella and a packet of salted peanuts should be enough to clinch the deal.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Sep 21 08:41
Zest Of Zambia, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 4.10 Bath, 4 PLACES

Zest Of Zambia only ran three times last season, when her two starts on turf (Bath 1m, Windsor 8.5f, both g/f), suggested a step back up in trip may suit. After reappearing over what was probably an inadequate test over 7f at Chepstow, her new trainer Christopher Mason ran her over 10f at Ffos Las, and although she was no match for a couple of relatively unexposed 3YOs in a 0-65, she ran ok to finish third.

It's a worry how quickly she backed out of it over a mile at Bath (0-65, g/f) on her latest start, after which  her jockey reported that the mare had stopped quickly, but it's possible that she might have done too much too soon chasing the leader.

She's dropped in grade to 0-55 company today and given another go at 10f, and although her mark has just about bottomed out, she is 5lb lower than when making the frame twice last season.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 01 Sep 21 14:27
Sounds very fair to me, George. I just hope it's not a long drawn out transfer saga with your current club digging in and holding out for 6 cans of stella, a family size bag of salted peanuts and a small packet of Pistachio nuts. I will move heaven and earth to get the deal over the line but there just isn't enough in the coffers to cover the Pistachio nuts!

GL with ZOZ. Looks like you're moving the market. Probert's mount the one to beat, his best chance of a winner on the card but hardly bomb proof.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 Sep 21 16:33
Well done WP, Probert wins it.

I thought Zest Of Zambia might have got a more patient ride this time back up in trip, but no, five of them went at it from some way out, and it was only the well backed Zefferino of the quintet who managed to hang on in there.

Running P/L: +89.87 pts
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 01 Sep 21 17:21
Managed to get a 1pt on at 5s. Surely Zefferino can pick up little a race like this soon. Pulled the whole way around and kept on well at the finish. Interesting that he won his previous race at Bath so a return visit could be the way to go.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Sep 21 09:04
He hasn't had that many chances on turf, having been mainly kept to the AW.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Sep 21 09:05
Sugauli, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 7.05 Newcastle, (4 PLACES)

Sugauli was having just his second run at a mile when winning at Newbury in July, seeing the trip out strongly and suggesting there could be further improvement to come from this sizable sort. That 0-70 might not have been the strongest of handicaps by the track's standards, but the fifth and sixth have won since. He was then stepped up in grade for a Racing League handicap over a mile at Doncaster, and he ran well, always close up and keeping on well for a close-up fifth.

Sugauli runs on the AW for the first time this evening in another Racing League handicap and his pedigree offers hope that he will take to the AW well, being out of a Singspiel mare and a half-brother to four AW winners including multiple winner and formerly useful Sands Chorus.
By:
Virgin
When: 02 Sep 21 09:53
7:05 Newcastle
Bonneval 9-4 Plain bit skinny George but I think will take this cd follow up Scared (Lord Neidin re-opposes)(race collateral form has been weak - 1 winner)

Gl Wink
By:
Virgin
When: 02 Sep 21 19:15
Even skinnier in a dead heat Cry

gl ....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Sep 21 19:24
Well done Virgin.

Poor from mine, who looked on edge beforehand, stood still when the stalls opened, then was keen off what looked a steady pace.

Running P/L: +87.87 pts
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