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2021 Flat Season - Selections from the Notebook

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Replies: 585
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Aug 21 17:34
Tis a cruel game at times Virgin, looked sure to win, but the winner, who looked like he'd gone off too fast, found loads to rally and get back up. Unbelievable, Jeff. Cry
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Aug 21 17:47
The market vibes were poor all day for Prince Ali, and he didn't appear to have any excuses in what was probably a truly run race.

He is eligible for slightly easier races, and maybe that's as good as he is.

It's worth noting though that a horse which runs in the same colours from this stable called The Bell Conductor, landed quite a gamble at Beverley last month. So it will be interesting to see if the application of cash to the betting markets prompts a better performance somewhere down the line.

Running P/L: + 28.53 pts
By:
Billy Liddell
When: 12 Aug 21 17:59
Good profit George, well done..
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Aug 21 09:05
Cheers Billy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Aug 21 09:08
Red Showgirl, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 3.20 Newbury (5 PLACES)

This is very much on the speculative side, if only because her win came on the AW and she is related to three AW winners, so needs to prove she can act on turf.

It probably wasn't much of  a race she won last time at Lingfield, but I thought given how it panned out and that she didn't have the kindest of trips, her effort probably wanted marking up.

She's been allotted an official rating of 75, which indicates what a big step up this to Listed company, but interesting that having gone off totally unfancied on her debut at Catterick (admittedly in a race where the first and third have gone on to show strong form and are rated in the 90s currently), they now think she's worth trying at this level on turf.

It could just be that she's improving as her RPRs suggest, and while it doesn't instill confidence that connections see the need to reach for cheekpieces, a chance is taken at the odds with a couple of firms offering 5 places.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Aug 21 09:56
Running P/L: + 26.53 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Aug 21 10:01
Equiano Springs, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 3.00 Doncaster

Equiano Springs is now 6lb below the mark off which he was second to Chil Chil (now rated 25lb higher) at Ascot (6f, g/f) last August. He hasn't been in quite the same form so far this season, though didn't shape too badly at Hamilton on his reappearance in June and had an excuse back there last month (sprawled badly in the stalls).

I did wonder after his latest run at Pontefract if he was being lined up for something back at Ascot, but he seems versatile regarding track and has won over 6f at Doncaster previously. He has been kept mainly to 6f in recent times and raced too freely over 7f at Newmarket in June, but he did win over 7f three times earlier in his career so the trip shouldn't be an issue.

He is a 7YO now and maybe he's on the decline, but he's looking well handicapped on his form from last season and interesting to see if a change of hands helps with Graham Lee riding the horse for just the second time.

Flying Dragon, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 6.45 Bath (4 PLACES)

Flying Dragon has been stepped up to middle distances since joining Richard Phillips from Richard Hannon, and while he has yet to conclusively prove he stays, he has left the impression that he's worth persevering with at middle distances.

On his second attempt at 12f (good) at Doncaster two starts back he ran okay having attempted to make all before fading to finish fourth behind Trinity Girl (who followed up off a 4lb higher mark). He disappointed on his latest start at Newbury over 13.5f, but he might have found the trip on good to soft too taxing.

He drops back slightly in trip to 13f this evening, hopefully on a sounder surface, and he's of a little interest with his mark falling and being unexposed at this sort of trip.
By:
Virgin
When: 14 Aug 21 20:56
Wd George Grin well supported Flying Dragon >> 14-1
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Aug 21 21:42
Cheers Virgin. Yes, there was solid late support for him.

In contrast, they couldn't give Equiano Springs away, sent off 50-1 ISP Blush

His mark will drop again and he can run in weaker races than this, probably back at 6f.
Deffo the the tread's cliff horse Crazy

10p Rule 4 for Flying Dragon.

Running P/L: + 27.49 pts
By:
PHS
When: 14 Aug 21 21:59
Nice placerWink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Aug 21 10:24
Ta, PHS
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Aug 21 10:31
Sheila's Legacy, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 1.35 Southwell

Sheila's Legacy would appear up against it to reverse recent Newcastle form with Elzaal, being 2lb worse off for 1.5 lengths, but she is of a little interest at the prices trying Fibresand for the first time, as she is a half-sister to Lord Oberon, a four time course winner. He is by Mayson whose progeny admittedly have a good record  at the track, but this one is by Medicean, who doesn't have many runners nowadays but did have a good record at the track a few years ago.

She was sent off at 150-1 at Newcastle, and seemed to show improved form in first time cheekpieces in a race won by Glorious Rio, who has won again since on turf. The run style she showed there, when showing pace to lead, could suit at this track if taking to the surface.

Fine Wine, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 2.45 Southwell

Fine Wine had won two of his five starts in Italy before joining Scott Dixon, for whom he had a couple of starts on the Fibresand at Southwell back in the spring, and he wasn't disgraced on the first of them over C&D, given he was coming off an eight month break, got into an early battle for the lead, then seemed to be doing too much in front, before ending up on the sometimes unfavoured far rail in the straight and fading to finish fifth inside the final furlong, in a race won by course specialist Zylan, with today's rivals Thrave and Excessable ahead of him in third and fourth.

He ran poorly on his next start when dropped to five furlongs and he hasn't run for four months since, so fitness has to be taken on trust, but he's had more time to acclimatise to his new surroundings and he has been dropped 8lb from his initial mark.

New Look, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 4.10 Chelmsford (4 PLACES)

New Look isn't one to go overboard about given his overall record of 1-49, but he's probably in better form than his recent form figures would suggest having been held up in a couple of his recent races round Wolverhampton that didn't pan out favourably, and last time at Haydock ran in a 0-71 on soft ground over 10f when 5lb out of the handicap.

This drop back into 0-56 company on the AW, even from just out of the handicap, looks more suitable at a track he has run well to finish placed at previously.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Aug 21 08:43
Sheila's Legacy made the frame to save most of the day's stake, but my other two selections were poor.

Running P/L: + 26.89 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Aug 21 09:08
Owens Lad, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 2.05 Lingfield

This selection is a bit on the speculative side. I thought Owens Lad shaped better than the bare result in a 8.5f nursery at Wolverhampton last October, having had a wide enough trip from a wide draw. The time was slow and there wasn't much ground covering many of the runners at the finish, but the race did produce a few subsequent winners.

His three runs since haven't confirmed the impression that he might have some improvement in him, though I note he was backed from 20-1 into 11-1 on his latest run at Musselburgh over a mile, but he didn't have the kindest of trips and the form of that 0-55 has worked out fairly well.

He returns from a 7 week break today with a tongue tie applied and eased in grade to a 0-50 classified.
By:
PHS
When: 16 Aug 21 09:16
Place GBWink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Aug 21 09:27
Running P/L: + 24.89 pts

Beauzon, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 2.00 Wolverhampton

Beauzon is a full brother to C & D winner Brazen Belle, and he didn't shape too badly over 5f at this track in June on his only AW start to date, when under a 3lb penalty in a novice race, he disputed what looked a decent pace and he only lost second place around half-a-furlong out before fading to finish fourth. The second Red Showgirl has won a Lingfield novice since and has an initial rating of 75, and the third horse home was the 86-rated Mercurial, who carried a 6lb penalty.

Beauzon has quickly been dropped 4lb to a mark of 68 after finishing down the field in a relatively valuable class 4 handicap at Musselburgh on his nursery debut last time, but he's of interest in this less competitive handicap back on the AW, and while he has his stamina for 6f to prove, Oisin Murphy has been booked to judge the fractions.

Viceregent, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 8.05 Carlisle

I was hoping Carlisle would have more rain, but they're giving the going as good, good to firm in places, which may not be ideal for Viceregent, but a chance is taken at the prices.

He probably shaped better than the bare result on his reappearance at Thirsk in May when giving chase to the in-form (at the time) front runner Sociologist for a long way before shaping as though the run was needed over a 12f trip that might just stretch his stamina.

Of the three runs since, one came in a competitive handicap at York, then he might have found the ground too quick at Haydock, and last time over C/D (when finishing behind Tarnhelm), he probably sat too close to an overly strong pace in a race where the winner had been detached at one point.

Viceregent is now 5lb below his last winning mark, and the only previous time Paul Hanagan has ridden him he was beaten only a nose, so while he may be one to wait for when back on easier ground, hopefully the ground this evening will be forgiving enough for him to act on it.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Aug 21 14:21
Viceregent a NR.

Another placer. Beauzon was held up to get the trip, but after making up the ground to get into third place without ever looking like getting to the first two, he's just clung onto that position. So didn't prove his stamina for 6f on that evidence.

10p Rule 4.


Running P/L: + 25.69 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Aug 21 09:21
Roseabad, 1pt win @ 5-2, 3.15 Carlisle

Roseabad was a little disappointing on her latest start at Sandown when finishing last of four over 14f, though her stablemate Annandale who finished second, has since come out and run well to finish second in a Shergar Cup race, and it's possible the race came soon enough for Roseabad, just five days after what looked a big effort to finish second  over 12f at Ripon in what looked a well run race that dipped inside the standard time. The horse that set the pace and ended up finishing last of the six runners, Dash Of Spice, has since come out and won at Pontefract.

It could be that Roseabad didn't stay the 14f at Sandown, but given how she saw the 12f trip out at Ripon having sat close to what was probably an overly strong pace, the impression left that day was that she should stay.

She's having to concede 15lb to Eclipse De Lunar who is 1-1 at the distance, but the Ripon run suggested there could be more to come from her over staying trips.

Just Amber, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 6.15 Kempton, (4 PLACES)

Just Amber caught the eye on her debut at Lingfield over 6f in February when looking markedly green and shaping well despite not the getting the clearest of runs. She ran well on her next start over 6f at Wolverhampton in March when finishing third in a fillies' novice won by one currently rated 84.

She was returning from a five month break and making her turf debut when shaping as though the run might have been needed over 5.5f at Bath in a race won by her short-priced stablemate Prop Forward.

Just Amber goes handicapping off a mark of 62 and is stepped up in trip to 7f which promises to suit.
By:
Virgin
When: 18 Aug 21 15:19
Roseabad Cool wd George gl ....
By:
Virgin
When: 18 Aug 21 18:27
Wd George Happy Just 3rd Amber
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Aug 21 18:36
Cheer Virgin

Just late headway from Just Amber to nick a place.

Running P/L: +29.24 pts
By:
PHS
When: 18 Aug 21 20:57
WD
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Aug 21 09:04
Ta, PHS
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Aug 21 09:07
Dark Lion, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 6.25 Windsor

Dark Lion could only finish fifth of nine when last seen over two months ago in a 9f handicap at Sandown, but he probably ran better than the bare result suggests given he did best of those who raced prominently in what was a strongly run race. The form has worked out quite well with the winner Dejame Paso (who was in receipt of 12lb from Dark Lion) following up at York, the second King Of Clubs (who received 7lb) running well to be placed in a strong handicap at the Newmarket July meeting, and the fourth Arqoob (who received 9lb) winning recently at Leicester.

It's a slight concern that Dark Lion has been absent since but fitness isn't usually an issue with one from this yard, while hopefully the drop back in trip to a mile won't be an issue given the run style he displayed at Sandown.
By:
Virgin
When: 19 Aug 21 18:31
Wd George Cool also in my notebook but went for a price Blush

I had Larado Cry
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Aug 21 18:39
Unlucky Virgin. If yours hadn't hung away from the rail then Dark Lion might not have got the gap.

Running P/L: +37.04 pts
By:
PHS
When: 19 Aug 21 19:05
WDWink
By:
Virgin
When: 19 Aug 21 19:15
Can't beat your form George Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Aug 21 09:47
Tindrum, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 4.50 Kempton

Tindrum was disqualified from second place on her latest start over 12f at Lingfield when her jockey weighed in 2lb light, but there were definite positives to take from that run, given it was just her second AW start and she didn't have the kindest of trips. The winner Chai Yo Power, a lightly race gelding trained by Sir Michael Stoute, has won again since off an 8lb higher mark. Today's rival Rafiot was fourth past the post.

Tindrum's sole turf win to date came going right handed at Sandown, so hopefully won't be inconvenienced by Kempton, and she is of interest being unexposed on the surface.

Under Fox, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 5.35 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Under Fox appeared to relish the Tapeta surface when making a winning AW debut at this track over a mile in June in first-time blinkers, when pulling well clear with two others on a surface described as "standard to slow",  which it is also forecast to be today.

He then ran well to be a staying on second over the stretch-mile at Beverley, before disappointing at Haydock.

Under Fox is by Dandy Man, so stamina has to be a query upped to 10f, but he has shaped as though he will stay the trip. The below par run last time at Haydock could be a sign that the effect of the blinkers could be wearing off, but as he is unexposed on the surface, a chance is taken that he runs to form.

Thriller's Moon, 1 pt EW @ 20-1, 8.07 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Thriller's shaped well on his reappearance at Catterick over 7f on soft ground last month when finishing fifth and shaping as though the run was needed. The form is working out well with the winner Motawaazy having gone in again since, the third Quercus having won twice since, and the fourth My Thought winning on his next start at Redcar.

Thriller's Moon could manage only sixth on ten on his latest start at Carlise (1m, good), but wasn't helped by a wide draw and being caught on the outer of the field.

Thriller's Moon seemed to the handle the Tapeta surface fine at this track when finishing third of thirteen over C/D in this grade last November, and makes some EW appeal here at the prices.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Aug 21 09:25
Not the best of days yesterday. Under Fox ran ok to make the frame.

Tindrum had finished ahead of Rafiot at Lingfield, when I thought he didn't have the kindest of trips, but having tried to make all of the running on this occasion, he checked out tamely, while his old rival Rafiot, having been held up here, reversed the form emphatically.

Thriller's Moon shaped like he either needs a longer trip on this surface, or making more use of, as he lacked the pace to get involved and could only make late headway past beaten horses into 5th.

Running P/L: +33.24 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Aug 21 09:54
Latin Fury, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.10 Curragh (6 PLACES)

A big field sprint handicap at the Curragh, not sure how much the going will deteriorate with more rain forecast, nor the effect of the draw, but with six places on offer, a chance is taken EW.

Latin Fury is a 4YO who has only raced three times so lacks experience for a race of this nature, but is unexposed and is of a little interest trying 5f for the first time on his handicap debut. He took a keen hold on his first two starts in maidens over 7f and a mile at Gowran Park and Leopardstown and shaped with a little promise, and he caught the eye on his latest start over 6f (g/f) at Cork in a first-time visor, when from a possibly disadvantageous low draw, he showed speed to lead the far side group and kept on ok whilst no match for some of those racing closer to the stands' rail (including today's rival Collective Power).

Who knows how the draw will play out, but a high draw is not usually a bad thing on the sprint track, and being by No Nay Never offers hope that he will handle softer ground fine.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Aug 21 10:20
Art Dealer, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.30 Chelmsford

Art Dealer was beaten a fair way on his debut over 7f at Leicester in May when finishing fourth of thirteen, but probably shaped a little better than the bare result given he ended up racing on what probably wasn't the best part of the track. He confirmed this impression when finishing third on his next start at Brighton over a mile when finishing third behind two rated in the 80s.

The three runs since have been poor and his mark has dropped 6lb to 69 after two runs in handicaps, however, he is of a little interest switching to the AW for the first time with American influences on the distaff side of his pedigree and his dam being a winner on dirt.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Aug 21 14:38
Soto Sizzler, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 3.15 Sandown

I'm going to give another chance to Soto Sizzler who I selected last time at Ascot on the back of his Old Newton Cup run, when I wrote:

Soto Sizzler ran in the Old Newton Cup Handicap on his most recent start and although he finished only eighth of the twelve runners, beaten over 15 lengths,  I think it's reasonable to think he shaped better than the bare result.

The race appeared to be strongly run on the soft ground, the time was around two seconds quicker than the Group Two race for fillies over the C/D on the card, and it paid to be held up with the principals (including Mignights Legacy, who also runs here) coming from the off the pace.

Soto Sizzler, who had sat close enough to the pace, travelled well into contention and was disputing the lead around two furlongs out before weakening out of it.  He is closely matched with Midnights Legacy on Epsom form from two starts back, and faces much quicker gound here, but he has won on good to firm previously and his overall form would suggest a sounder surface suits better.



He's dropping in trip here to 10f which mat not be ideal, but it looks like there is some cut in the ground at Sandown today, so given how he went through the race at Haydock it looks worth a shot. There are a couple of unexposed 3YOs in here, notably King Of Clubs whose Newmarket form from last time looks very strong, and they unsurprisingly dominate the market.
By:
Billy Liddell
When: 21 Aug 21 17:06
Going great George, good luck tonight. I have absolutely no handle on The Bigger Prices anymore. Well done..
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Aug 21 21:03
Not so good the last couple of days, Billy.

The earlier 2YO races at Sandown on the round course led to me to think there was more cut in the ground then there actually was, because the times of the better class races for the older horses suggested the going description was fairly accurate, and 10f on that ground probably wasn't ideal for Soto Sizzler, who had a lovely position but couldn't quicken for toffee in the straight and just plugged on for fifth.

A shocker from Latin Fury who wasn't drawn well anyway as it turned out, with low numbers dominating.

And as for Art Dealer, I think the kindest thing I can say is that I hope they find him a nice home somewhere, cuz I'm not sure he has much future as racehorse.

Running P/L: +27.24 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Aug 21 09:19
Two lightly-raced fillies against the field in the 4.40 at Naas

Bonte Moi, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 4.40 Naas
Jo March, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 4.40 Naas


Bonte Moi has having just her fourth run and making her handicap debut when doing well to finish a close-up fifth in a big field at Leopardstown over 9f ten days ago having endured a wide trip from a wide draw. Connections see the need to apply cheekpieces on this step up in trip to 10f, which promises to suit, and she looks a sizable filly who looks open to improvement.

Jo March has caught the eye the last twice not getting a clear run round Bellewstown and Killarney, and she too promises to be suited by this step up to 10f.

Longcall, 1pt win @ 11-1, 5.00 Brighton

Long Call has run ok to be placed in two of his runs over hurdles this summer, and he caught the eye back on the Flat at Brighton recently in the relatively valuable Brighton Mile Challenge, when not getting the clearest of runs over a trip that was probably sharp enough anyway.

He's now back on his last winning mark, and back up in trip to 10f. He could do with the rain staying away, and while he tends to be held up in his races, hopefully this won't be a crawl with Contingency Fee in the field.

Oceanline, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 5.45 Sandown (5 PLACES)

Oceanline is a half-brother to the useful staying handicapper Call My Bluff, and he seemed to relish the step up to 14f when readily winning at Nottingham in June. Better might have been expected in two runs since, but he probably wasn't suited by a muddling three-runner affair round Haydock, and last time might have found the competition too hot and / or the ground too soft back at Haydock in a valuable Class 2 handicap.

He's returning from a 7-week break here so fitness has to be taken on trust, but he remains unexposed as a stayer and hopefully the booking of William Buick is a sign that he will be fit enough to do himself justice.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Aug 21 09:21
Need to get out bed sooner and learn how to type faster, the priced collapsed on Jo March while I was typing Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Aug 21 09:38
From 9-1 into 100-30 for Jo March within an hour. I doubt JP has a had a chance to have his millions on yet Crazy
By:
jamesdean
When: 22 Aug 21 17:56
Good shout with oceanline there dode, wd
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Aug 21 18:07
Ta James, it was needed after two days of poor picks on the thread.
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