Tashim, 6.55 Leopardstown, 1pt EW @ 17-2, (6 PLACES)

Tashim shaped well on his reappearance and debut run for Paul Flynn over a mile at Navan in May on heavy ground, when sat close enough to what seemed a decent pace in the conditions (run in a time 5 seconds quicker than the maiden on the card won by subsequent Group 3 winner Earlswood), and while he held every chance in the straight, he ended up on the far side of the track which might not have been the best place to be and he weakened out of it.

He ran well two starts back to be third of fourteen at Gowran Park, and he shaped better than the bare result last time when denied a clear run at Killarney. Those starts have come on better ground, but the Navan run suggests he goes well enough on more testing ground should the going change at Leopardstown, and with six places EW on offer, he gets the vote.

History Writer, 7.20 Doncaster, 1pt EW @ 18-1, (4 PLACES)

History Writer has been disappointing on his last two starts, including last time out at Salisbury when very weak in the betting in a race where his stablemate Mitigation was heavily backed and looked unlucky not to win. However,  earlier in the season History Writer hadn't shaped too badly in a couple of major handicaps, when not getting a clear run over C/D in the Lincoln, and when eighth of 27 in the Victoria Cup at Ascot when perhaps the 7f trip was sharp enough.

History Writer is eased in grade this evening, and while it's hard to know what to expect, he won't mind if the going eases, and a chance is taken at the odds with four places on offer.

Fierospeed, 7.53 Doncaster, 1pt EW @ 16-1, (4 PLACES)

Fierospeed's two wins to date have come on the AW, but he has only had three chances on turf, and although he finished last of four on his return from a break over 10f at Nottingham last week,  he was only beaten less than 2 lengths behind the progressive Miramichi, albeit in what might have been a tactical affair.

He's entitled to come on for that first run in over three months, and while softer going would be an unknown, his pedigree being by Zoffany out of a Montjeu mare would be encouraging that he won't mind some cut in the ground, and as a lightly raced 3YO he remains of interest.

Never In Paris, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 7.52 Haydock

In the hope the forecast rain arrives, a chance is taken on Never In Paris, who has been disappointing so far this season, including when the ground has been suitable and there has been market support.

She has become very well handicapped, now being a stone below the mark she was third off in the Ayr Bronze Cup last season on good to soft, and 13lb lower than when third at Redcar last November over 7f on soft ground.

It requires a leap of faith to support her on what she has shown so far this season, but hopefully she has benefited from a two month break and returns in better form than she was in when last seen.

Never In Paris a NR.

There are now five out of the 5.52 and down to seven runners, but the firm who were offering the four places are now three places so long as at least 6 stand their ground.

1.5mm of rain on Wednesday and 3mm on Thursday. 5mm of rain by 10am on Friday and forecast to continue through the day. Forecast at least 12mm on Saturday. Max temp 18C.

George. Just knew one of these would pop in. Well done. A great find. I doff my cap to you. 49.4 BSP.

Good shout that George, was a brave call, Well done

Thanks for the kind words.

Unfortunately the 28s was with the firm offering the extra place but not BOG, and there's a Rule 4 too

Sacrificing profit at the altar of the extra place markets

Mind, I wouldn't have been complaining had she finished third

There was a piece about her in the RP today because she'd broken Quixall Crossett's British & Irish record for the longest ever losing run.

Had she made it to 136 as a maiden she would have broken the world record. Thankfully that won't happen now!

Oh dear George. =22.4

Tell us that you at least got 1/4 odds cos there were only 7 runners.

Cheers, Mad'

PHS, calm down, dear.

It's just a bit of interest. I've done threads previously to level one pt win stakes where I stuck unconditionally to the top prices on my system, endured the losing runs that went over 100 pts, before recovering.

You can go round in circles debating win vs EW vs extra place markets, or fretting about your ROI. Do whatever you feel comfortable with, imo.

On this particular thread, not all selections have been EW. However, in this particular instance though, for a mare who was 0-105, stipulating the extra place concession wasn't exactly a crazy idea!

Cheers Virgin

Just reaised I made a mistake when calculating the updated P/L:

Running P/L: 30.73 pts

WD with celerity george

Golden Days, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.20 Cork (6 PLACES)

Golden Days caught the eye when last seen when keeping on well to finish seventh of the seventeen runners in a race won by today's rival Scream over C-D in early June, having raced centre to far side in a race where four of the first five home were drawn 17 16, 18 and 22 and racing stands-side looked an advantage.

I also note looking at her form that her reappearance run at the Curragh had come in a race where there had appeared to be a notable stands' side bias.

It's a concern that Golden Days hasn't been seen for two months since and a low draw could again be problematic, but with six places on offer a chance is taken EW.

Wd George gl ....

Valhalla's Dream, 3.40 Curragh, 1pt EW @ 28-1 (4 PLACES) not B.O.G

Valhalla's Dream has been showing good  pace in his races, including in big field maidens at this track back in the spring when finishing third of twenty over 7f on soft / heavy on his debut, and then fourth of twentyfive over 6f on good ground.

Of his four starts since, one came when outclassed in Listed company, another two starts back at this course when going off very quickly over 7f on good ground in a big field handicap but only dropping out of the places from around a furlong out.

Valhalla's Dream failed to get involved on his latest start at Leopardstown, and would be much better off with a few of these in a handicap, but is off a little interest EW with four places on offer, back at a track he has gone well at before and on this first attempt at 5f.

MK Drama, 1pt EW @ 25-1, (5 PLACES), 4.40 Curragh

Mk Drama hasn't been at her best of late but may appreciate being back on easier ground and at a track she has gone well at twice previously.

Two C & D starts at the Curragh have seen her finish third of seventeen on her final start last season on heavy ground, and third of fourteen on her reappearance in May on soft ground. MK Drama ran well to be placed on her next two starts on soft ground, but she hasn't been in the same form on better ground on her most recent starts.

Clearly the more rain the better for MK Drama, and although she is eligible for weaker races than this, Jamie Powell, who looked good value for his claim when winning a race at Naas recently, takes 10lb off.

Following 9mm of rain the ground is yielding, yielding to soft in places. Showers clearing, mainly dry thereafter. Strong tail wind at present

Amnaa, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 5.05 Windsor

Amnaa won the relatively valuable Rous Seller at York on soft ground as a juvenile in 2019, but it wasn't until running at Lingfield in May that she belatedly got a chance to race on such a surface again, when the combination of the 7f trip and poor draw seemed to find her out inside the final furlong, having shaped well against the draw bias up to a point.

Her latest run over 6f at Brighton on good to soft when finishing fifth looks better now than it did at the time given the first two home have won since.

It looks like the ground will be good to soft at best this evening and interesting to see if these softer conditions help Amnaa produce a better effort.

Rubee Forty, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.35 Windsor

I selected Rubee Forty last time at Lingfield when I wrote:

A speculative vote is given to Rubee Forty who had caught the eye two runs back at this track over 7f when she shaped okay having raced in the centre of the track on a day when racing close the stands-rail on the straight turf course looked an advantage.

She wasn't disgraced over this evening's C/D on her latest start when finishing fifth (from 4lb out of the handicap) of the eight runners behind Moosmee who she faces again here, and although it looks a tough task to try and reverse the form with that thriving rival who has won again since, she does have a 17lb pull at the weights (when s Tyler Heard's 5lb claim is taken into consideration).

Rubee Forty was a bit disappointing but didn't get a clear run when trying to make some headway and ironically ended up against the stands-rail on an evening when it probably wasn't the best place to be. She's given another chance on this more conventional straight track.

Final Orders, 6.45 Ballinrobe, 1pt EW @ 25-1, (4 PLACES)

A rare selection over hurdles on this thread.

Final Orders probably shaped better than the bare result in a 1m7f handicap at Leopardstown in June given he sat close enough to what appeared a sound pace before fading to finish sixth (the form has worked out fairly well as the third horse  home Franno has won twice since, Harvest Bow who he had behind has won back at Leopardstown recently, and Hidden Land who ran a similar race to Final Orders, has since won a mares' hurdle at 50-1).

Final Orders ran well enough on his latest Flat start at Galway considering he wasn't helped by being drawn wide.

He did run over hurdles in July without suggest a win was imminent in this sphere, and he needs to prove his stamina for this near three mile trip, but a chance is taken at the odds with four places on offer.

Cheers Virgin

I thought for a moment Amnaa wasn't going to be caught (traded around 1.4), but alas she was.
Final Orders ran well to be second, clear of the third. Hefty Rule 4 unfortunately.

Rubee Forty ran a bit better to finish fourth but she was readily left behind by the first two.

Running P/L: + 29.53 pts

Ta, PHS

Bluetech 25-1 >  1.05 ir I only caught the last 2f George and got the colours mixed up wd