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2021 Flat Season - Selections from the Notebook

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Replies: 585
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 10:36
Fancy leave the time and meeting off. I'll have to start taking more water with it Tongue Out hic.

Thank you, Virgin.

Plenty of horses aged ten and older have won Grand Nationals, Virgin, so I'm sure the odd one can win round Goodwood over 2 miles, even against younger legs Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 10:37
* leaving Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 11:08
Caspian Prince recorded four RPRs in excess of a hundred this season at the age of twelve.
By:
saddo
When: 10 Oct 21 12:04
I'm hoping for a good run from Manucci, should like conditions and was always travelling a bit too well off the slow pace lto. GL.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 13:00
Good luck, saddo
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 13:41
It looks like you've moved the market here, saddo, price collapse
By:
Virgin
When: 10 Oct 21 13:53
Be My Sea - almost embarrassed me PlainBlush
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 14:01
Good run, Virgin. Sportsbook were paying five places.

Poor from my pick, who just wasn't up to it against some grizzled old performers, in a jumps trainer wins Flat staying handicap shocker.

Running P/L: +234.36 pts
By:
Virgin
When: 10 Oct 21 14:11
Yes indeed George a decent run from the old'un Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 14:17
I thought saddo's pick was looking good coming down the straight when he was in behind the leaders and looking to challenge. Maybe he could have done with an all round stronger pace as the time was a shocker, 16.5 secs outside standard. Obviously they were carrying bigger weights, and maybe the ground is more heavy than soft.
By:
saddo
When: 10 Oct 21 14:29
Been walking so haven't seen it yet George, slow pace again? All but the odds on lays taken so pleased enough anyway.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Oct 21 14:51
Maybe it was just a combination of the weights and ground, saddo, but two lengths covering the first five home, usually a sign that the pace had been a modest one. And is noted in the close-up comments, yours was keen enough just in behind it.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Oct 21 11:59
Corton Lass, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.20 Musselburgh (4 PLACES)

Corton Lass is a 42-race maiden, so probably more of a place than win prospect, but she has placed on three occasions over today's C&D, and she's well drawn today which may help her put in one of her better efforts, though whether she'll be able to grab the rail or not could depend on Garnock Valley, who has led in a couple of his recent starts over further.

Corton Lass didn't run too badly over C/D last month when finishing fourth from the lowest draw (with today's rival Lord Of The Glen one place behind her), in a race won by one who has gone on to follow up and then finish a close second. She seems versatile regarding ground, and while she can carry her head high under pressure and not find as much as seemed likely, hopefully conditions today will suit.

Moonlit Cloud, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.25 Yarmouth

I'm going to give another chance to Moonlit Cloud who was a bit disappointing when I selected her last time at Chelmsford over 7f, though it's possible the run might have been needed after a short break and the surface might  not have suited. She hadn't shaped too badly previously in maiden and novice races round Nottingham over 8.5f on good to firm when probably having gone off quickly enough in front.

There is stamina in her pedigree, so being kept to 7f may not be ideal, but she didn't look short of pace round Nottingham, so perhaps another attempt at this trip on turf is worth a go. Her draw in two is a slight concern, but on the plus side her mark has been dropped 7lb from her initial rating.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Oct 21 11:59
Corton Lass, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.20 Musselburgh (4 PLACES)

Corton Lass is a 42-race maiden, so probably more of a place than win prospect, but she has placed on three occasions over today's C&D, and she's well drawn today which may help her put in one of her better efforts, though whether she'll be able to grab the rail or not could depend on Garnock Valley, who has led in a couple of his recent starts over further.

Corton Lass didn't run too badly over C/D last month when finishing fourth from the lowest draw (with today's rival Lord Of The Glen one place behind her), in a race won by one who has gone on to follow up and then finish a close second. She seems versatile regarding ground, and while she can carry her head high under pressure and not find as much as seemed likely, hopefully conditions today will suit.

Moonlit Cloud, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.25 Yarmouth

I'm going to give another chance to Moonlit Cloud who was a bit disappointing when I selected her last time at Chelmsford over 7f, though it's possible the run might have been needed after a short break and the surface might  not have suited. She hadn't shaped too badly previously in maiden and novice races round Nottingham over 8.5f on good to firm when probably having gone off quickly enough in front.

There is stamina in her pedigree, so being kept to 7f may not be ideal, but she didn't look short of pace round Nottingham, so perhaps another attempt at this trip on turf is worth a go. Her draw in two is a slight concern, but on the plus side her mark has been dropped 7lb from her initial rating.
By:
Virgin
When: 11 Oct 21 13:36
Wd place George Happy gl ...
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Oct 21 13:58
Ta Virgin. A few firms were going four places. She tends to be up on the pace, but whether by design or because she wasn't cleanly away, they held her up today.
By:
Virgin
When: 11 Oct 21 16:31
Another good effort George Sad gl ....
By:
Manoleeds
When: 11 Oct 21 16:31
The way the betting went I thought MC had lost a leg on the way to the start. Backed with the bookie paying 4 places for the inevitable result Sad
By:
11kv
When: 11 Oct 21 16:44
50 at the off on here ran well unlucky..
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Oct 21 17:07
Yeah, made for tough viewing, after looking like she might just hang on for a place, ends up losing two places inside the last half-furlong.

No damage done on the day at the early prices thanks to the extra place concession, but will go down as -4 at Betfair SP. Corton Lass was sent off at 18-1.

Running P/L: +234.96 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Oct 21 08:43
Tilly The Filly, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 6.00 Newcastle

Tilly The Filly is having her third run for a mark today, and has to prove herself on the surface, so not sure this is the time to catch her, but on a quiet day she gets a tentative vote EW.

She shaped nicely enough on her debut at York (5.5f, g-f) last month when shaping as though in need of the experience and probably a stiffer test. Her second start saw her finish a close up fourth at Beverley (5f, good) three weeks ago in a novice won by one with an official rating of 77, with today's rival Lucky Lucky Lucky (who finished his race off well) a length behind her in fifth. Tilly The Filly steps up to 6f this evening which promises to suit.

Serenading, 1pt win @ 100-30, 7.30 Newcastle

Serenading is a fairly obvious one, but she looked in good form last time out at Ascot over a mile in a class 2 handicap when getting no luck in the run. She drops in grade to class 4 company this evening and returns to Newcastle where she is 2 from 3 (both wins at 7f) and 9lb higher than for her last success.

She has yet to win over today's trip of a mile in four attempts but she seems to stay the distance. PJ McDonald, who has been aboard for both her wins, takes over again in the saddle.
By:
Virgin
When: 12 Oct 21 19:37
Wd George Cool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Oct 21 19:49
Cheers Virgin.

And well done to ? Yarmy and the stalls handlers for getting her in, I was feeling knackered just watching them. She didn't look too far away from having to be withdrawn.

The filly in the novice race didn't run too badly considering she wasn't well drawn and pulled too hard, but it looked a risky selection in a race of that nature and so it proved as she faded to fifth.

Running P/L: +236.29 pts
By:
the numbers seven
When: 12 Oct 21 20:07
Good shout GB, the first one looked like it was going to be last 2 out so done well staying on for 5th.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Oct 21 21:24
Before the camera angle changed, it looked as though the gelding she finished in front of at Beverley was going to run right past her and reverse the form, but when they came back into shot, she was over a length of ahead of him. Mind, they might have been taken it easy in behind Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Oct 21 21:25
* taking Crazy
By:
PHS
When: 12 Oct 21 21:29
WD
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Oct 21 12:14
Cheers, PHS
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Oct 21 12:17
Miss Anaco, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.55 Bath (4 PLACES)

Miss Anaco made a pleasing debut at Bath over 5f (g-f) in August when third behind a couple who are currently officially rated 80 and 74. She hasn't built on that initial promise in two subsequent starts, though it's possible the surface wasn't ideal on either occasion, though her fourth last time out at Ffos Las (g-s) looks better now with the runner-up having come out and since won a 13-runner restricted novice at Goodwood, albeit one she was entitled to win on the figures.

Miss Anaco goes handicapping off a mark of 60, which looks fair based on her debut form, and hopefully the return to quick turf will prove more suitable.

With Pleasure, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.25 Bath

With Pleasure hasn't won since winning over today's C&D back in 2017, and he isn't getting any younger at the age of eight. However, he didn't shape too badly at Bath over 13f (good) on his latest start when returning from nearly three months off, having taken a grip and pulled his way to the front over 7f out, but he kept on reasonably well considering he was taken on up front from some way out.

He's up in grade today and has work to do to reverse the form with the runner-up from that race Master Grey, who he's 2lb better off with, while the quicker ground and widest draw are also concerns, but if he can run his race more efficiently this time over a trip he's proven over, hopefully he can at least press for a place.

One Over Par, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 7.30 Kempton (4 PLACES)

One Over Par finished tailed off on his debut for Mick Appleby just nine days ago when returning from over three months off, after having been sold out of James Tate's yard for 13,000 gns and undergone a gelding operation, however, it's likely the soft ground was unsuitable.

He is of interest on what turned out to be his final start for his previous yard back in June, when fifth at Kempton on his first attempt at a mile, not faring too badly considering he'd raced freely in the early part of the race and had sat close enough to the pace in a race where the first two had been held up. The second and third have both won twice since.

It could be that his new stable will need more time to get to the bottom of him, and it's hard to be sure dropping back to 7f will be ideal (though he had the speed to break his maiden over 6f at Newcastle as a 2YO), but this ease in grade should help and interesting to see which way he goes for his new yard.
By:
Virgin
When: 13 Oct 21 20:59
Wd George Happy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Oct 21 21:06
Ta Virgin, unfortunately not enough to prevent a losing day.

One firm were paying five places on Miss Anaco's race (who finished 5th), and four places on With Pleasure's ( who finished fourth), but the only one that counted for this thread was One Over Par, who finished fourth (SP 12-1) as there were a few firms going four places.

-2.6 pts on the day.


Running P/L: +233.69 pts
By:
the numbers seven
When: 13 Oct 21 22:30
Hit the bar there GB, good effort though. Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Oct 21 08:57
the number seven, I thought With Pleasure was going to swoop down the outer and at least nick a place, but maybe the ground was quick enough for him.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Oct 21 09:00
Million Reasons, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.10 Brighton

Million Reasons returns to the Brighton for the first time since finishing a good second at today's trip of 6f in July to Coco Bear, who has since won off a 7lb higher mark in a higher grade. The third, Anjella, who went into the race on a hat-trick, has also won again since. Million Reasons was trained by Marco Botti at the time, and three runs since for David Evans have been disappointing, though he probably shaped a little better than the bare result on his latest start at Leicester over 7f, given he contested what appeared a solid pace from an unfavourable draw in an apprentice handicap before weakening.

A concern regarding his chance today is the quick ground as his second here in July came on good to soft, and previous runs on a quick turf surface haven't been great. However, a drop in his rating allows him into this lower grade (albeit the two at the top of the weights carrying penalties are better than this grade), he may be suited by a return to 6f, and hopefully the application of a visor to prove beneficial.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Oct 21 09:02
* will prove Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Oct 21 11:16
Blue Umbrella, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 4.35 Curragh

I'm going to take a speculative punt on Blue Umbrella who probably shaped better than the bare result over C&D in a maiden when last seen two months ago, when showing good speed in the centre of the track to dispute the lead and was still travelling okay around 2f out when being steadied to track and then not getting the clearest of runs, before weakening out of it. Today's rival Red Wasp, who was making her debut that day and showed plenty of promise, has since won a maiden at Doyal Royal. She looks open to plenty of improvement, however, Blue Umbrella, who was just over two lengths behind her at the Curragh, meets her on 18lb better terms plus Nakita Kane's 7lb claim.

Blue Umbrella did finish runner-up in a fourteen runner 5f maiden at Tipperary last season, albeit it wasn't the strongest race of ts type, but at least that run showed she does have some abilty, and her rating is now 13lb lower than at its peak. She's missed a couple of engagements since last seen due to being in season and then lameness.
By:
Virgin
When: 14 Oct 21 14:46
Wd George Cool gl ...
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Oct 21 16:17
Cheers Virgin.

Just seen that my 66-1 poke in the last at the Curragh is a late NR. Oh well, a small profit on the day.

Running P/L: +235.89 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Oct 21 08:53
Loch Long, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 5.30 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

I'm going to give another chance to Loch Long who ran well to be second at Newcastle over 10f in early August when wearing first time cheekpieces, and then after a couple of disappointing runs at other tracks when poorly drawn, I selected him last time back at Newcastle over 10f when he was disappointing again, all the more so considering he had finished in front of the winner Oot Ma Way when they had met previously over C&D.

He's dropping back to a mile this evening, which isn't sure to suit, however, a change of headgear to blinkers could help sharpen him up and it could be that he needs to be ridden more prominently than he was last time, as had been the case when finishing second on his previous run at this track.

Emraan, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 8.00 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Emraan is another I'm giving another chance to having disappointed when selected last time out at Kempton over 7f. His previous effort over 7f on soft ground in a stronger grade probably wanted marking up given how the raced panned out. It augured well for his return to Polytrack given he had won his first two career starts at Lingfield on the AW and his mark could be viewed as a favourable one. However, he was returning from a 6 week break and failed to get involved having been caught wide early from the outside stall.

Emraan has to prove himself on Tapeta, but his mark continues to fall and the return to a mile looks a good move, though being drawn in stall four could be a problem.
By:
The Management
When: 15 Oct 21 17:05
Good Luck with the above George - but I only popped in for a nosey today expecting to see Wot's The Wifi Code as a selection Shocked
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