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2021 Flat Season - Selections from the Notebook
2021 Flat Season - Selections from the Notebook
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Interesting to see how Montaqem gets on as I had Gustave Aitch yesterday (Wolv 7.30 in a 0-65) who was late on the scene to my eye boosts the form a bit for today's easier level?
gl George.... |
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Virgin, there seemed to be money around for that horse last night at prices, but not sure he was suited by being held up off what appeared a steady pace?
It is drop in grade for Mostaqem but not sure it's any easier with a few 3YOs from respected stables in there, and older horses such as Tazaman and Sophosc who both shaped a lot better than their bare form suggested last time out. A lot could depend on what sort of trip my pick gets from trap 11, and having watched William Carson on Solar Park last night approach the first bend around seven wide, I'll be interested to see what he does on this fella tonight. |
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Cheers George. Noted Solar Park just left Attwater as well
 Gl .... |
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Crazy price
 I've got 30's gl .... |
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and 33-1 + 4pl .....
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 unlucky 5th George |
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William Carson had him well positioned relative to where the winner came from, Virgin, and I thought he was going to run on into a place, but I didn't think he looked the easiest, luggimg to his right under pressure.
A bad day at black rock all round. I've had some shockers with these soft ground angle selections, and I added another two today, with Western Alliance failing to get involved, and Shanghai Rock, who was easy to back despite the return to heavy ground, folding tamely. Excelinthejungle made for frustrating viewing, chasing what was probably an overly strong pace before leading into the final, then being picked off by the winner before losing two places inside the final 100 yards to two who had sat well back from the early fractions. Running P/L: +239.31 pts |
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Rubee Forty, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.30 Kempton
Rubee Forty is a filly I've selected previously on this thread, having perhaps shaped better than the bare result when racing in the centre of the turf track at Lingfield on a day when racing close to the stands-rail appeared an advantage. She caught the eye again on her latest start and Polytrack debut at Lingfield, when she wasn't without market support, and looked unlucky not to go closer having been denied a clear run in the closing stages. She's returning from six weeks off this evening, so fitness has to be taken on trust, but interesting to see if the backers return, and she's obviously unexposed on the surface. David Probert is booked, but he doesn't have a good record for the stable, 1-42 last 5 seasons. |
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Rubee hammered by your followers GB
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I was rather hoping it was insider money, Mad', given she's coming off a short break.
The market closer to the off will tell us more. |
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Lorna Cole, 1 pt EW @ 14-1, 8.00 Kempton
Lorna Cole is of a little interest returning to a C&D over which she won last September off a 7lb higher mark. She has faced some stiff tasks in higher grades since joining Charlie Wallis from Mick Appleby, and although she has failed to get competitive in them, she hasn't looked a lost cause on a couple of occasions. This will be the first time she has raced in 0-55 company, and may benefit from a return to 6f, so hopefully she can be more competitive this time from a potentially helpful draw. |
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It's been a poor three days on the thread since Monday.
I wondered if everything looked in place for Lorna Cole to return to form on this drop in grade, but absolutely no excuses, having been well positioned she offered little. There was seemingly morning support for Rubee Forty, but she was returning from a 6 week absence and it's possible the run was needed. Running P/L: +235.31 pts |
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Keep the faith GB
235 pts didn't come from flukes Onwards |
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It will come good again George a mere blip in your run.
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I wish I shared your optimism!
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Finally Mine, 1pt win @ 8-1, 1.30 Ayr
I'm going to give another chance to Finally Mine who ran well on soft ground at Musselburgh last October when pulling clear with the winner, on what was just her third start and handicap debut. She hasn't had many chances on a similar surface since, and I selected her last week over today's C/D on ground described as good to soft, when she ran okay to finish fourth of six, beaten just over 2l. It looks like the ground will softer today, and interesting to see if this suits better. Tommaso, 1pt win @ 10-1, 1.30 Ayr In the same race Tommaso is of a little interest on her debut for Phil Kirby. She caught the eye on her debut over 7f at Carlisle on soft ground in May when despite looking green she ran on well to finish third. She hasn't shaped too badly on quicker surfaces since. Tommaso appears to have a knee action, so it could be she'll prove better suited to softer surfaces. She has taken a keen hold, so could do with settling better on this return from three months off, but I suspect there is better to come from her at some point. Impressor, 1pt EW @ 30-1, 3.15 Ayr (4 PLACES) This is perhaps on the speculative side. Impressor hasn't shown much in six starts for Philip Makin since joining his yard from Marcus Tregoning, and his mark has fallen 20lb. He has been gelded since last seen over two months ago, and he's of interest today back on a softer surface as his novice win came on good to soft, and he was placed on heavy ground in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes in his 2YO season. He didn't run too badly on his final start for his previous yard at Goodwood last season on good to soft when rated 23lb higher. He could only finish 7th of 11 on soft ground at Doncaster in May for his current yard when rated 13lb higher than today, so it could just be he hasn't really trained on as an older horse, but with his mark in free fall, a chance is taken at the odds. David Allan takes just his second ride for the yard. |
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Thanks George some good pointers there ...for what it's worth I like Finally Mine and Impressor (after reading your reasoning) but haven't added to the penalty.... yet ;) gl
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3.15 Ayr Pearl Of Qatar @ 22-1 (4 pl) looks a little overpriced given her form (17 Aug 21 @ Ham) with a few of the market leaders so fingers crossed for her making the frame as well ...gl
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Pearl Of Qatar @ 22-1 (4 pl)
 3rd |
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Well done on the place, Virgin.
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I think I can pass on Finally Mine from now on. There is stamina on her dam's side, so maybe longer trips is what she wants, or is another straw to clutch at.
Tommaso (who is a gelding, not a filly as I was calling her) was very weak in the betting close to the off and ran as the late market predicted. He appeals as the sort to come good for his new stable at some point, but there was nothing to suggest a win could be imminent in the short term. Impressor led for over four furlongs before folding tamely. Running P/L: +231.31 pts |
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Lincoln Gamble, 1pt EW @ 17-2, 5.55 Newcastle (4 PLACES)
Lincoln Gamble has been running okay on turf of late, and he he's of some interest back on the AW based on his run at this track over 7f in early August, when always close up in what looked a well run race that produced a time 1.38 seconds quicker than the other division, and not shaping too badly in finishing fifth of the fourteen runners in that 0-65. That was just his second start at this track, and although he's 2lb higher this evening, this is a drop in grade to a 0-60. He seems to stay a mile fine on turf, so I'm not expecting the step up in trip on this surface to be an issue. Tomily, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 7.30 Newcastle Tomily has been round the block a bit now and has had plenty of racing, but he hasn't been running too badly this season for his current yard, including when finishing a close up third at Carlisle in May off a 9lb higher mark, and he's another of interest being returned to Newcastle. He's now 15lb lower than when finishing a close up third in 0-85 company over C&D last November. Tomily did have a couple of starts at this track back in April, but the runs might have been needed so early in the season, and back in the day at this course he had made the frame when rated 99, so it is a surface he has run well on more than once from few opportunities. Magnetic North, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES) Magnetic North has run well for his new stable a few times this season and finally got his head back in front two starts back when winning a 16-runner Roscommon handicap over 12f in a first time visor. He's of some interest returning to Dundalk for just the third time. Of his two previous course starts, one came last season in a Premier Handicap when rated 14lb higher and he failed to make much impression from a wide draw, and the other came the previous December when rated 15lb higher and probably shaping better than the bare result given he endured quite a wide trip throughout. Magnetic North is ridden this evening for the first time by 10lb claiming apprentice Adam Caffrey, who has ridden a second and two fourths from 25 rides, so jockey inexperience could be a factor. However, Magnetic North remains well handicapped on his old form and is only 2lb higher than for his recent win, and he hasn't had many chances racing over 12 furlongs. |
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Magnetic North has not won for me in 8 picks including the 6 DEC 19 run (3.2 ish ir) you mention George I eventually gave up after my final pick came LAST @ Naas 23 AUG 20, almost a year before his latest win, helped by a drop in class (?), although as you say he's unexposed on AW so I can understand connections wanting to see for themselves (I'll watch with mild interest
) gl .... |
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One I got wrong, Virgin. He had a terrible wide trip on that December '19 run, when rated much higher, but no such excuses this evening, just nowhere near good enough, even off his reduced mark.
Lincoln Dream was very weak in the betting leading up to the off, and in the race took a keen hold and ended up being eased right off after the saddle had slipped forward. I didn't see any shots of him going to post, but maybe he'd been keen to the start which might explain the drift. There seemed to be some market support for his stablemate Brazen Prince, who was making his AW debut and finished fourth. Tomily made the frame to prevent another complete wipe out. -2.2 on the day. Running P/L: +229.11 pts |
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* Lincoln Gamble
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* Lincoln Gamble
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Breagagh, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.50 Limerick
Breagagh hasn't offered much in a couple of runs since returning from over 10 weeks off, including when unfavourably drawn wide at Bellewstown last time, but he is of interest racing again on soft / heavy ground, given he ran well on a similar surface when finishing second of sixteen over 6f at Fairyhuse in May, when he had three of today's rivals behind him. He ran okay to make the frame on his next start over 7f at Gowran Park on good ground, so it could just be that he's gone off the boil for whatever reason, rather than the ground has been unsuitable for him. However, he looks worth at least one chance back on a testing surface, while hoping that those two more recent runs have been needed to advance his fitness. Maud Gonne Spirit, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 4.35 Limerick Maud Gonne Spirit ran well to finish second over 7f at Cork on soft ground in August to a filly who was winning her third race of the season for her new yard, with two subsequent winners in behind. Of her three runs since, she was runner-up in a conditions race on unfavourable terms at Tipperary, and the last twice back in handicap company, she has shaped as though still in form despite the races not panning out favourably for her. She is a dual winner on soft-heavy ground, so the going should be in her favour, and while she has a wide draw to overcome, there should be a pace on to run at in this with the likes of Nebo and Spanish Tenor in the field. Siglo Six, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.55 Chelmsford Siglo Six has plummeted in the weights and is now 26lb below the mark he won off over a mile at Sandown in 2019 when trained by Hugo Palmer. He often doesn't help himself by refusing to settle, and he has yet to place in ten attempts on the AW. However, he ran well enough from the front over 11f at Kempton earlier this year when rated 15lb higher, before being reeled in and fading to finish fourth, to suggest that he does act on Polytrack. He is racing over 7f this evening, a trip he won over as a 3YO, but whether it's his optimum trip nowadays is open to question as he has been tried over various trips. He is well drawn to go forward this evening at a track where such tactics can be favoured, and it will be interesting to see what the market makes of him close to the off, on this his first start with a tongue-tie applied. |
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George
 wd gl ..... |
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Well done George, another nice priced winner, can't keep a good man down for long.
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Cheers Virgin & stewarts. It was needed after a poor week.
Suspect I'll know my fate after 50 yards with this next one. Steadied at the start? |
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late gains |
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Didn't even have to wait for the 50 yards.
Interesting head on, you could have driven a bus up the inside, but whip in left hand and in behind horses. Who knows, maybe the horse has totally gone at the game, or maybe the application of cash to the betting markets will prompt a rejuvenated performance at some point. He is eligible for 0-55 / 57s now. |
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Running P/L: +236.36 pts
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WD. Unbelievable strike-rate.
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GEORGE.B is very good,like the write ups myself...
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Back in the groove GB
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Nice one George.
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Thanks for the positive comments.
After a good weekend, it was a poor few days with thirteen points dropped from Monday to Friday. Got a few of the supposedly soft ground angle ones badly wrong. Oh well, hope for better next week. |
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Alpine Stroll, 1pt EW @ 17-2 (4 PLACES)
Alpine Stroll hasn't been at his best in recent starts, but he might have found the ground too quick when a well beaten favourite at York last time, and it's easy enough to forgive his run in the Melrose the time before. A couple of his previous runs this season on good to soft don't read too badly now, when finishing runner-up at Newbury and Salisbury to Surrey Gold and Pleasant Man, who have both gone on to win off higher marks. Alpine Stroll races here off a 4lb lower mark than for either of those runs. He still has to prove his stamina for two miles, but the way he's been keeping on in some of his races has suggested he should stay. He's the only three year old in this race which is confined to jump jockeys, and hopefully this return to easier ground will see him more competitive. |
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* 1.45 Goodwood
I quite like the price of Be My Sea @ 10-1 but age is putting me off at 10 yo I will leave it to the youngsters gl .... |