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Yes, Jonathan Neesom said it was a slow time, so maybe the ground is harder work than forecast.
4th for my pick Storm Catcher. Running P/L: +26.8 pts |
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There's a Listed fillies hurdle at Aintree today, in which my only qualifier is White Pepper, who did the thread a favour when she won last time at Galway.
Top priced 11-8 currently, so I'm going to pass at those odds. |
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As you say , price is everything -but when does it become a bet, 13/8, 15/8, 2s? (Not that I'm an expert in getting prices right.)
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white Pepper clearly good but Malakahna won easily as well and is better value.
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5-1, Manoleeds, then I could back it EW
![]() Good luck sageform. Addosh has to carry a 3lb penalty for having won a Class 2 race, sounds a bit harsh. |
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Not enough info on Aintree,but on what I have,indicates White Pepper for the win,could drift on course
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I've a notebook hoss running at Cork in the next George, had a bit of place only on Just Jacob around 10
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Why do we even consider any GB runner when there are 3 Irish ones?
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Oot Ma Way, 1pt EW @ 33-1
Just the six runners and I have three of them as qualifiers - Skycutter, Bulls Aye and Oot My Way. I'll give another chance to Oot Ma Way, who has plenty to find if Flat ratings are any guide, but that was also the case when I selected her at Newcastle when she didn't shape too badly considering she'd been keen enough in the conditions. Hopefully she'll settle better today and these less demanding conditions will suit better. Skycutter. who has the highest domestic rating of these with a Flat mark, made a winning hurdles debut at Wetherby despite having raced keenly and jumped right on occasions. On that evidence this track could suit. Bulls Aye ran a couple of fair races on the Flat at the start of the season but didn't progress, and was particularly disappointing on his latest start over 10f at Redcar when visored for the first time and weak in the betting. He has his stamina to prove on this switch of code, but with a peak Flat rating of 78 he has the ability to be competitive here if taking to hurdling. Collingham won twice on the Flat in France at around 12f, and comfortably made a winning start over C/D for Donald McCain last month. It remains to be seen where his limitations lie. Bamboo Bay, a stablemate of Skycutter, finished just ahead of Oot Ma Way at Newcastle and he's entitled to come on for that initial hurdles experience. As is Beowulf, who finished third in what looked a fairly competitive juvenile hurdle at Fontwell three weeks ago. |
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* 12.45 Musselburgh
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Spoilsports doing money back as free bet if second to fav and ew wo fav .
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Thanks for letting us know, Manoleeds
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The winner was allowed plenty of rope up front and then pulled out more when it looked like Collingham was going to make a race of it.
Oot Ma way looks one for handicaps after that, pretty much repeating the Newcastle form by not finishing far behind Bamboo Bay. My other qualifier, Bulls Aye, who seemed to be nibbled at late on in the betting, didn't see his race out after briefly looking like he might press for third up the straight. So he has his stamina to prove, albeit the run might have been needed after 75 days off. Running P/L: +24.8 pts |
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Telefina, 1pt EW @ 150-1, 12.20 Fontwell
I have three qualifiers in this, Boulette, Oceanline and Telefina. I'm going to take a speculative punt on Telefina EW at huge odds. I thought she probably shaped better than the bare result in a two mile handicap at Wolverhampton in October, but that was just a low grade handicap and her official rating of 43 would seem to indicate the enormity of her task here. However, she hasn't had many chances, ran okay in a 14f handicap at Salisbury in August to suggest she can go well on turf, and is out of a hurdles winner, albeit at a low level. Oceanline, who did me a favour on my Flat notebook thread when he won over 14f at Sandown in August, is the highest rated of these on the level. He made a satisfactory debut over hurdles at Stratford when second to one who has since followed up in a class 2 under a penalty, and while better might have been expected last time at Wetherby in a Listed hurdle, he should find this easier. I selected Boulette when he was perhaps a shade unfortunate not to have made a winning start over hurdles at Worcester, and then after racing too keenly at Ludlow when a beaten favourite, he was turned out ten days later in a first time hood over today's C/D to win from a useful sort off the Flat. He has a 7lb penalty to contend with but that is partly offset by Kieren Buckley's 5lb claim. His stablemate Inferno Dacree was managing to complete the course for the first time in three starts when finishing just ahead of him at Ludlow. The winner has since followed up under a penalty, and this fellow who was unraced on the Flat, looks open to improvement, particularly if hurdling more fluently. Haykal and Top Brass were winners on the AW for the Gosdens, and have an official Flat rating of 77. The latter has been gelded and undergone a wind-op ahead of his hurdles debut. The other one in the market is Kotmask, who makes his debut here for Gary Moore, after finishing fifth of thirteen in a French conditions hurdle in June. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting closer to the off. Fiamette was encountering soft ground for the first time when not disgraced at Ffos Las behind the useful looking Forever Blessed, who has since followed up impressively under a penalty at Sandown. |
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Taking an e/w chance on Top Brass. 25 on his flat rating puts him ahead of the 2 that have run over hurdles.
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Good luck sageform
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Wonderful-drifted from 12 to 20 in 2 minutes! Wrong again?
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Only three will ever win a race.
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I think it's fair to say on the softer side of good to soft.
There was a concern about Oceanline on soft ground on the Flat, and he probably wants better ground over hurdles. Boulette gave it a good shot from the front but found the well backed Kotmask too strong in the closing stages. My longshot Telefina was still close up in the remote second group of three jumping the second last before coming off third best of that trio and finishing 6th. There may be a little race in her on the AW, or when handicapping at a low level in this sphere. Boulette's stablemate Inferno Sacree was weak in the betting and looks a handicap project on that evidence. Running P/L: +22.8 pts |
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I have not heard about the shake up in the Triumph market yet have you? The trial on Saturday will probably be more informative.
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The ones that will dominate the Triumph betting on the day, have we even seen them yet?
No doubt Willie and Gordon will have a few good uns they've yet to run for this division. |
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There's an interesting French import entered at Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday, called Iroko. Second on his only start over hurdles in France, running in the colours of Lord Daresbury, which probably explains why it's being trained by Oliver Greenall, despite now being owned by J P McManus.
The French form has worked out extremely well, with the winner going in again under a penalty, and the third winning twice since - all those wins in decent races at Auteuil. Iroko gets a 40/1 quote for the Triumph from two firms, no price from the rest. |
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Interesting. French juvenile form is usually pretty strong.
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Thanks for heads up, Anorak
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Galah, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 12.05 Cheltenham
Three 3YO hurdles in the UK / Ire today and I'm going to stick with the Cheltenham one, where I have just the one qualifier Galah. Galah didn't progress on the Flat this season for Ralph Beckett and her official rating declined by 9lb to 72, though she did run okay in defeat on occasions. She's bred to stay well but there was a stamina query based on her Flat form going into her hurdles debut at Newcastle two weeks ago, where she seemed to get the trip in keeping on for third place (over a length behind Twilight Twist who also runs in this), admittedly in what might not have been the most strongly run of races, but she had been keen enough and hopefully a first time hood will help her settle better today. The winner of the Newcastle race runs in the Grade 2 at Doncaster today, and while the fourth and fifth might have done more for the form subsequently at Musselburgh, Galah is entitled to come on for that initial experience and receives allowances all round here. The penalised ex-French trained Message Personnel stayed on strongly in "heavy" ground to win a six-runner hurdle at Dieppe on his second start, and has since joined Dan Skelton's yard. Of those with a domestic Flat rating, Patient Dream and Titian come out top with a rating of 88. Patient Dream made a satisfactory start over hurdles at Wetherby when finishing second to another useful one off the Flat who has since followed up under a penalty. Titian signed off on the Flat for William Haggas by winning a 0-92 on soft ground over 10f at Doncaster, and has since been purchased for 155,000 gns. The horse he beat there, Kolisi, is being pitched into the Grade 2 at Doncaster today on his hurdles debut. Yorksea was handed a stiff assignment on his hurldes debut in a Grade Two at this track last month but ran well to finish third. The form has taken a knock since with the second Saint Riquier being a beaten favourite at Warwick, but this 10f winner off the Flat in France is obviously open to improvement for his new connections in this sphere. The other one in the market is Interne De Sivola who made a promising debut at Warwick, and that form has been boosted since with the second Graystone having subsequently defeated the aforementioned Saint Riquier at Warwick. Lady Pacifico made a winning start over hurdles at Leicester in a race confined to fillies, and would appear to face a stiff task under a penalty in this open company. |
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The French race won by Message Personnel was only ordinary, and he might not have beaten the rival that fell two out, or the third, who was badly hampered by that faller. And the ground certainly wasn't heavy, they were barely making a print - the slow time indicates a slow pace rather than slow ground.
He was a long way behind the 18L winner, Illico Des Places, on his debut - that one is now with Tom Symonds (since mid June) and another French import that should be capable of winning races over here, as and when he finally appears. I'm guessing that Iroko (mentioned above) has bypassed the two races today in order to remain qualified for the Introductory Hurdle at Kempton on Dec 27th. which should be less competitive - unless Symonds has the same idea! |
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Thanks for the analysis of Message Personnel's French form, Anorak. He seems solid enough in the betting at the moment, but given what you say, combined with his 7lb penalty, it'll be interesting to see how he goes in the market closer to the off.
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I like Message Personnel,Cheltenham is supposed to favour the favourites in these type of races,so today will be the acid test,not discounting Yorksea
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Good luck tanglefoot.
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Keep up the good work,George
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George,Milton Harris trainer of Galah,has good record at Cheltenham,so hope for your selection,if favs don’t come to the fore.
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well done gb nyce playce , thanks
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Yes,good third
Message Personnel’s jumping was terrible Sorted that about Cheltenham in my mind |
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Cheers. Happy enough with that, it looked a stiff task against male opposition, but I thought there was enough in the Newcastle run to take a chance EW on her at the prices.
They came for Yorksea in the betting, but as I mentioned in my little write up there were form lines involving Saint Riquier that gave Interne De Sivola a good chance against that particular opponent, and as that was his racecourse debut, he's duly come on a lot for it and run out a comfortable winner. Anorak warned us that the French form of Message Personnel might not be the strongest, and he ended up fifth, though not disgraced under his penalty. Running P/L: +29.8 pts |
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How about the Summit at Doncaster? I was keen on Too Friendly but the Skelton form has taken a nosedive this week. Knight Salute might confirm how good he looked at Cheltenham but that form needs a boost.
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sageform, I think it's fair to say Too Friendly's Newcastle form got a form boost there as he beat Galah and Twilight Twist easily enough.
My only qualifier in that race is the complete 'rag' New Reality, who would appear outclassed. My only qualifier at Fairyhouse is Britzka, but having missed the 11-2, I think I'll pass at 2-1. |
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Thanks George. I agree he looks the one but after Allmankind, Stepney Causeway, Nube Negra and Third Time Lucki I am nervous.
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2/1 was generous for Britzka
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My bad, sageform, I'll have to try and get out of bed earlier.
Or alternatively, just post the pick with no analysis. The write ups are holding me back ![]() |
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The juvenile hurdle guy on on the other forum is back, and there's me whingeing about a few paragraphs.
This fella does a proper preview, he must have been up all night. Too Friendly currently 40-1 for the Triumph. He's given his "strong prospect" to Knight Salute for the Summit. https://theracingforum.co.uk/forums/topic/juvenile-hurdlers-2021-22/page/9/ |