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Gavin, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 1.00 Wincanton
A selection which very much takes a big leap of faith to support again having already been picked twice previously on this thread. Gavin probably shaped better than the bare result when finishing third over 12f at Salisbury back in April, when trained by Rod Millman, behind a couple who have won subsequently. He then left Millman's yard after a couple of disappointing runs, and of the two runs over hurdles for his current trainer, which came after a three month break, he hasn't been giving himself a chance to get home by racing too keenly. The straws to clutch at today are that he will settle better, a first time tongue-tie will help, and racing right handed again will show him in a better light. Sonning is currently the highest-rated of these on the level with a mark of 76, and makes his hurdles debut for Alan King. His Flat form would suggest the sounder the going the better. Mister Allegro, who is only rated 50 on the Flat, made a winning debut over hurdles at Ludlow at 40-1, from one who won his next start when sent off at odds of 4-11. Epic Pass also ran in that Ludlow race, but had been to be pulled up after making a mistake at the first hurdle and his jockey losing an iron. He's rated 72 on the level, and it's worth noting that he came in for late market support on his hurdles debut. Burristo won't lack for experience, but his limitations have seemingly been exposed after being well beaten in a handicap at Worcestor last time. Inferno Sacree, who is out of a half-sister to Sprinter Sacre, wasn't without market support on his debut at Hexham nearly five months ago, but was reported to have hung right and was tailed off before being pulled up. The subsequent absence might suggest all wasn't well, and it will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting today. |
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Taking a chance on Mister Allegro as Sonning did not run that well in his latest flat races. GL george.
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Good luck, sageform.
The form comments are interesting for Sonning's last race on the Flat at Newbury, ten runners and at least six of them were noted to have taken a keen hold. The time was slow and it all suggested the race was run at a crawl, so perhaps not the most reliable form guide. Sonning didn't get a "took keen hold" comment, but according to the chap on the other forum who specialises in these races, Sonning had been keen too. |
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Amazing that Mr Allegro was so poor on the flat. Jumped like a pro and never in any danger. Each season there are one or two 3yos with no flat form that really take to jumping and you oppose them at your peril.
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Well done sageform. He looks a nice type physically. It looked like he got an easy enough lead round a sharp track, but hey, can't knock him, 2 from 2.
As for Gavin, who looked like a coiled spring as soon as he came into shot down at the start, again didn't settle too well and was outclassed. Suppose moving into low-grade handicaps will offer him more realistic opportunities. Not sure why they're keeping a hood on him because it's not making a jot of difference to his demeanour, might even be making him worse. Running P/L: +0.4 pts |
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It will probably prove to be a weak race as Sonning didn't jump well and the winner was never put under pressure. I seldom criticise jockeys but I have never been impressed with Heskin.
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Horse I'm interested in watching,at Wexford today is Ideal Pal in the 2.35, wins when it's ready on the flat and won a good race over 10fs at Gowran and a close 2nd at Listowel since, good winners since in big field h'caps behind in Excusio Joe and Insignia of Rank.
Ran promisingly in 2 nh races last season and should be capable of winning over 2m hurdles, 2 short priced fans from Elliott and Bolger in race today and heavy ground might stretch him, but one to keep in mind imo. |
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Good luck stewarts
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Heskin beaten on 2 more well fancied rides. I will be surprised if McNeil family keep him for much longer.
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The Guvnor, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 1.20 Ffos Las
An interesting juvenile hurdle, with the presence of an expensive purchase off the Flat, a previous winner, and a couple of well bred debutants. My only qualifier is The Guvnor, who I thought shaped well over 14f at Chelmsford in August when returning from a break and gelding operation to finish fourth behind race-fit and in form rivals. The first and second from that race won their next start, so perhaps better could have been expected from The Guvnor on his latest run when upped to two miles and dropped in grade at Kempton, but he could only manage a well held fourth. Perhaps his stamina was stretched, which would be a concern given the ground today could become quite testing, or it could have been that he wasn't suited to making the running. The Guvnor makes his debut today for Harry Whittington on this switch to hurdling, with a query about his ability to act on soft ground, particularly given the worst of his three turf runs to date came when encountering good to soft at Newbury, though he did have an excuse having raced freely in first time blinkers. On the balance of his Flat form I'd be optimistic that he should be fine stamina-wise, particularly as he is by Frankel and a half-brother to a hurdles winner (albeit a low grade handicap one). Zinc White, who is officially rated 87 and 24lb superior to The Guvnor on the Flat, makes his debut here for Oliver Greenall after being bought out of Ralph Beckett's yard for a whopping £310,000. His stamina seems assured being a dual 14f winner on the Flat, both times on soft ground, so he would appear to have strong credentials for this switch of code. George Bancroft knows how to win having won two low-grade handicaps on the Flat this summer, and then made a winning debut over hurdles at Fontwell early this month. He's rated 19lb inferior to Zinc White on the level, and has a 7lb penalty to carry today, so he would appear to face a stiff task if the favourite can transfer his ability to this sphere, but he remains unexposed after just seven career starts. Forever Blessed is quite well bred being out of a 12.5f winning daughter of Quiff, the Yorkshire Oaks winner and St Leger runner-up, so one might wonder why he hasn't raced on the Flat, but if he does have ability, his pedigree is encouraging that he will stay, and his sire Zoffany gets plenty who handle soft ground well. Moka De Vassy is a half-brother to useful winners both over jumps and on on the Flat, and makes his racecourse debut with his stable in form. Cornicello should handle conditions well having won twice last autumn over 10f in France on ground described as "very soft". He failed to add to his tally this year in three starts on ground described as "good to soft", but did finish second of eleven in a claimer on the latest of them. He makes his debut here for Jamie Snowden, and his ability to handle soft ground could come in handy given the weather forecast. Allset didn't offer much on his hurdles debut on good ground at Ludlow three weeks ago having raced with the choke out, but if he can settle better this time he may appreciate the conditions more having won his final start in France over 11f on ground described as "soft". |
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An interesting betting market, Zinc White was shockingly weak in the betting, but they came for the 'wrong' debutant.
The Guvnor didn't shape too badly on ground that was probably too testing for him, without ever looking a major threat. Running P/L: -1.6 pts |
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Genuflex, 1pt win @ 10-1, 3.15 Wetherby
I have two qualifiers in this Listed race - Genuflex and Oceanline, and I'm going to let the odds dictate the selection. I'll go with Genuflex at the prices. I selected him when he was runner-up on his hurdles debut at Ludlow to 40-1 shot Mr Allegro, who has since shown that was no fluke by following up under a penalty in good style at Wincanton. Genuflex then came out and readily won as expected at short odds at Sedgefield. The softening ground is a concern for Genuflex, whose two career wins so far have come on a sound surface. He was second over 10f on soft ground as a 2YO, but not sure that four-runner affair is the most reliable guide. However, as he matures and gets stronger, perhaps he'll be fine on it. Oceanline did me a favour on my Flat notebook thread when he won at Sandown in August. He's a half-brother to the useful stayer Call My Bluff, and Oceanline himself duly improved for stepping up in trip to 14f. He found Too Friendly (a NR today) just over a length too good at Stratford on his hurdles debut, but he's entitled to come on for the experience, and he is the highest rated on these who have a mark on the Flat. I'm not sure how soft he wants the ground, he's a winner on good to soft, but was well held on soft ground at Haydock in July. However, that run was in a valuable class 2 handicap won by the well handicapped Tashkan. Porticello would appear the one to beat, even under the 5lb penalty he carries for winning on his debut at Auteuil in April. The horse he beat there, Magistrato, won on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Chepstow this month by twelve lengths. The third horse, Imprenable, won his next two starts at Auteuil, including a Listed hurdle. So it looks strong form in the context of this race, and given it came on ground described as "very soft", he won't mind the rain getting in. The other five runners have all won juvenile hurdles and are open to improvement. |
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George - any view on the juvenile hurdle at Fakers the other day?
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No strong views, colupaul. There was a marker horse in there, The Yellow Taxi, who had previously finished second to both Impulsive One and George Bancroft, and she was beaten a long way, albeit under a penalty. So for the division, the form might not be too bad, given George Bancroft ran well under a penalty at Ffos Las against one who looked pretty good on his debut.
I did have a couple of qualifiers in the Fakenham race at big odds, but decided to pass as conditions didn't look right for either of them. |
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Porticello looks a big scopey sort, who was well on top at the finish.
Not a bad run from Genuflex, who traded short in the run, but had no answer to the winner after not being fluent at the last. Addosh was travelling nicely into it when unseating the jock three out, so might have given the winner something to think about. Running P/L: -2.6 pts |
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Cheers George...
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The Guvnor, 1pt win @ 9-1, 2.00 Bangor
I have two qualifiers in this, The Guvnor and Book Of Secrets. I'll give another chance to The Guvnor, who I selected when he made his hurdles debut at Ffos Las. He didn't shape too badly up to a point, hurdling safely in the main and still being in contention two out, before perhaps a combination of the soft ground, his stamina limitations and the opposition became too much for him. The ground is again a worry today, but he's entitled to come on for the experience and this may not be as strong a race, though he is up against it if Flat ratings are any guide. Like The Guvnor, my notebook run for Book Of Secrets came on the AW, and it's pointed out in the RP spotlight that his best AW RPR of 75 is far superior to his best RPR on turf of 55. However, his two turf starts to date were his first two career starts when the runs / experience might have been needed. His sire Free Eagle had four individual winners from not many runners in 3YO hurdles in GB / Ire last season. He has had wind surgery ahead of his hurdles debut and has joined a stable which obviously can have them ready. Paintless Potter, who is officially rated 4lb and 14lb superior to Book Of Secrets and The Guvnor respectfully on the Flat, made a satisfactory hurdles debut (when losing a shoe) at Kempton behind two with winning hurdling experience, and that would appear the best hurdling form on offer in this. The other one in the market is the French-bred debutant Saint Segal, and it will be interesting to see how he goes in the market given the strong market support for his stablemate that ran in the same Ffos Las race as The Guvnor. Jack Kennedy is a well bred sort who was rated 75 on the Flat after three starts for the Gosdens, but he didn't last long in their stable, and two starts for Kevin Frost, including on his hurdles debut last time Huntingdon, have seen him well held. He would appear to be up against it unless this first run on going with "soft" in the description shows him in a better light, and there has been some morning support for him at the time of posting. |
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The Guvnor, 1pt win @ 9-1, 2.00 Bangor
I have two qualifiers in this, The Guvnor and Book Of Secrets. I'll give another chance to The Guvnor, who I selected when he made his hurdles debut at Ffos Las. He didn't shape too badly up to a point, hurdling safely in the main and still being in contention two out, before perhaps a combination of the soft ground, his stamina limitations and the opposition became too much for him. The ground is again a worry today, but he's entitled to come on for the experience and this may not be as strong a race, though he is up against it if Flat ratings are any guide. Like The Guvnor, my notebook run for Book Of Secrets came on the AW, and it's pointed out in the RP spotlight that his best AW RPR of 75 is far superior to his best RPR on turf of 55. However, his two turf starts to date were his first two career starts when the runs / experience might have been needed. His sire Free Eagle had four individual winners from not many runners in 3YO hurdles in GB / Ire last season. He has had wind surgery ahead of his hurdles debut and has joined a stable which obviously can have them ready. Paintless Potter, who is officially rated 4lb and 14lb superior to Book Of Secrets and The Guvnor respectfully on the Flat, made a satisfactory hurdles debut (when losing a shoe) at Kempton behind two with winning hurdling experience, and that would appear the best hurdling form on offer in this. The other one in the market is the French-bred debutant Saint Segal, and it will be interesting to see how he goes in the market given the strong market support for his stablemate that ran in the same Ffos Las race as The Guvnor. Jack Kennedy is a well bred sort who was rated 75 on the Flat after three starts for the Gosdens, but he didn't last long in their stable, and two starts for Kevin Frost, including on his hurdles debut last time Huntingdon, have seen him well held. He would appear to be up against it unless this first run on going with "soft" in the description shows him in a better light, and there has been some morning support for him at the time of posting. |
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The Guvnor well and truly had his limitations exposed, with his stamina again looking suspect, at least on that sort of ground.
A good run from Book Of Secrets, who showed he's not just an AW horse by pulling well clear of the short-priced fav, but he found the scopey looking debutant Saint Segal too good. Running P/L: -3.6 pts |
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A grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham and a 3yo hurdle at Punchestown today, but I don't any qualifiers in either of them, but a horse that has cost the thread a few points so far is making his handicap hurdle debut today at Uttoxeter and is given a tentative vote.
Gavin, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 12.57 Uttoxeter (4 PLACES) Gavin didn't give himself a chance to get home in his first two runs over hurdles having raced keenly, and last time at Wincanton was held up last in a race where the winner Mr Allegro (who runs in the Grade 2 at Cheltenham) seemed to get a pretty easy time of it out in front. Gavin had been due to make his handicap debut at Huntingdon the other day over 2m4f, but he's not the most straightforward and had to be withdrawn. He's clearly limited and is 5lb 'wrong' here, but this low grade handicap probably represents a more realistic opportunity, and as a 3yo he receives the 16lb wfa allowance. |
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George, I'd stop this thread now, as well, for the season. Well done again. Good decision to stick with him. SP of 47.6 here.
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Ding dong
Perseverance ![]() |
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Ding dong
Perseverance |
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Well done George, won easy. 33-1 as well.
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Wd
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Wd
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WD George, great pick. And credit to the lad on board, what a confident ride from a 5lb claimer.
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Trainer trying to keep a straight face
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well done george class ,missed it again
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Thanks for the kind words.
I said last time after I'd picked him that he's going to have a more realistic chance in low grade handicaps, and he was due to run over 2m4f the other day at Huntingdon, and I think he was about a 66-1 chance, and I didn't select him, thinking, given the way he pulls he's never going to get home over that trip. Anyway, I don't know what happened, but just as I put RTV on, he was away from the other runners down at the start and had been withdrawn. I thought this horse is a f*cking nutter ![]() His withdrawal turned out to be a blessing in disguise and he's turned up today and belatedly justified me putting him in the notebook last April ![]() |
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jumper3 13 Nov 21 13:06
George, I'd stop this thread now, as well, for the season. Well done again. Good decision to stick with him. SP of 47.6 here. It's a longshot, jumpers3, but the aim is to try and get to 100 pts profit for a third consecutive season with the juvenile hurdlers. And it is a longshot because I don't know what 'qualifiers' I'll have switching codes. TheAnorak 13 Nov 21 13:10 WD George, great pick. And credit to the lad on board, what a confident ride from a 5lb claimer. A beautiful ride, Anorak. I don't know anything about him, but he looks older than the trainer! |
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Danny Burton, In racing since leaving school. Firstly started as an amateur then enjoyed a six year conditional career before returning to amateur status. Enjoy Point to Pointing at weekends. HGV class 2 license also.
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Thanks for the profile, the numbers seven, he looks like he's been around a while.
So he's evidently returned to the conditional ranks? |
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Looks like George, he was travelling head lad for Tom George till July last year, must have packed that in to have a go again, obviously he loves the game. Seems to know what he is doing, I will keep an eye out for him.
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I did say in the opening post that as I will need all the help I can get that I would be claiming B.O.G
![]() Running P/L: +36 pts |
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Good winner GEORGE.B credit where its due.
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wd george..an errant dart has made you a star..wd again.
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Cheers 11kv
Thanks for the positive comments, Rico |