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George's 2021 / 22 Juvenile Hurdle Selection Thread
George's 2021 / 22 Juvenile Hurdle Selection Thread
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Replies: 363
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Morning Anorak,
There doesn't seem to be much rain in the forecast, though that said, according to RPRs he just about ran to his winning heavy ground form despite finishing last of six, not beaten far, on his most recent start at Brighton on good to firm. Blimey, see that William Buick is already jocked up on one for Brian Barr in that race. His agent is clearly keen to get in there first. |
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Bell Ex One, 1pt win @ 8-1, 3.55 Down Royal
I have two qualifiers in this, Whyzzat, who was selected on this thread when he won an incident-packed 3YO hurdle at Roscommon last month and has a 6lb penalty to carry in this, and today's selection Bell Ex One who makes his hurdles debut. Bell Ex One won his latest Flat start over 14f at Galway and is now rated 77, so has sound credentials for this switch of code given his stamina and ability. Of the others, plenty will be interested to see how Albert Camus fares, who was 3-9 on the Flat for John Gosden, is officially rated 89 and was sold last month for 115,000 gns. Another interesting recruit off the Flat is the Noel Meade-trained Lunar Power (rated 72) who has run well to be placed in staying handicaps at Galway and Leopardstown (twice) on his last three starts. |
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Certainly looks a class above any English 3yo hurdles so far George and may be quite instructive. I would side with Albert Camus.
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Good luck sageform.
Given his price tag interesting that they're sending him straight over hurdles rather than look for a handicap on the Flat for him first. |
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Bell Ex One was heavily backed into 13-8 fav, but his hurdling wasn't fluent at times and although he still kept on quite well, he found one too good in the stable switcher Realist, who went the shortest route round the inner and seemed to win with a bit in hand.
Running P/L: -1 pt |
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bit = lot imo
Keep up the good work. |
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The yard had their 3YOs ready to roll last year with the likes of Longclaw, Duffle Coat, Zanahiyr and Quilixios, and with this one being rated in the 70s for Michael Bell on the Flat, he commanded more respect than my little write-up gave him
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I got the nod for it 1st time out at Chelmsford @ 9-2.
Didnt get too many more chances before queeny had had enough. |
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You were closest George. Didn't see the race but the money came for Bell Ex.
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Boulette, 1pt win @ 15-2, 6.35 Worcester
Gavin, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 6.35 Worcester. I have two qualifiers in this: Gavin, who I selected on this thread when he made his hurdles debut at Stratford last week, when he carted his way to the front, went clear, then stopped quickly after two out (and still some way from home). It takes a leap of faith to support him again after that, but hopefully the run has taken the fizz out of him, while advancing his fitness following a break, and he runs his race more efficiently this time. The other qualifier and selection is Boulette, who caught my eye when he had quite a tough trip round Sligo in early May (10.5f, g-y), on what was his third start. He ran in three more maidens when trained by Jim Bolger, including at Leopardstown and the Curragh, and wasn't disgraced in any of them, particularly last time at the latter track (10f, good) when finishing a 9l fourth behind Interpretation, a subsequent Listed winner. The second and fifth have won maidens since. He shapes as though he should be fine stamina-wise for this job, and while it's slightly disconcerting that his previous yard moved him on before even seeing if his rating of 71 was workable in handicaps, hopefully he will take to this and his Flat ability will see him thereabouts. The early market is dominated by Keepyourdreamsbig and Corporal Jones, who were both making their hurdling and racecourse debuts when finishing runner-up at Uttoxeter and Market Rasen respectively, and both are entitled to come on plenty for their initial experience. |
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You got Boulette completely correct well done, another few strides and well....Unlucky.
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As it turned out 11kv, I could have done with Gavin doing what he did last time and going off in front, at least then there would have been some pace on. As it was, he's been restrained and pulled whatever little chance he had away, and the lack of pace early has probably cost Boulette the win, cuz as you say, another couple of strides and he would have got there.
Running P/L: -4 pts |
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There are two juvenile hurdles today, one at Fontwell in which I don't have any qualifiers, and one at Perth in which I have two of the five runners as qualifiers on my dodgy system.
Don't Look Back, 1pt win @ 12-1, 1.45 Perth I'm going to be honest here, when I marked up Don't Look Back's run in a Class 6 mile handicap at Chepstow back in June, I wasn't expecting him to show up next in a juvenile hurdle at Perth having left Richard Hughes to join Lucinda Russell, but thar ya go! He's by Oasis Dream and has his stamina to prove for this, but his dam was a Listed winner over 11f and has thrown middle distance winners, albeit by stouter stamina influences, but also including a 10f winner by Iffraaj, so there is encouragement in his pedigree for longer trips. My other qualifier is New Reality, who is the current joint-favourite, and like my selection that went close the other day, Boulette, he has made the switch from Jim Bolger to Nigel Hawke. He is comfortably the highest-rated of these on the Flat, and being a 12.5f winner he should be fine stamina-wise. He ran poorly on his final start for Jim Bolger, but that was in the fairly strong Ulster Derby Handicap at Down Royal. The other three runners Boundsy Boy, Moneykenny and Aliomaana, have the benefit of previous experience and have shown enough to suggest they can win one of these. |
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Don't Look Back didn't look an obvious one for juvenile hurdles, and having been keen, offered little going forward in this sphere.
My other qualifier New Reality did win, perhaps fortunate to do so, though was right behind the leader when she fell at the last, which was why he nearly came down too. Running P/L: -5 pts |
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Nice one with New Reality,would have backed it if I saw your post earlier,known fact that in non handicap races at Perth favs do well
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tanglefoot, I didn't make him the selection because as stated in the opening post, when I have more than qualifier then I will usually let the odds dictate which one gets picked, which didn't work out well on this occasion admittedly, but in the long term...
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* more than one qualifier...
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Catch Kodi, 1pt EW @ 100-1, 3.55 Ballinrobe
My only qualifier in this is Catch Kodi and her selection is very much on the speculative side given her lowly Flat rating and the fact she is up against some useful male opposition off the Flat. I marked up her run in a 45-65 10f handicap at Navan (good) in July when I thought she shaped a bit better than the bare result from a wide draw. I then selected her on my Flat notebook thread when she ran on quicker ground in a 10f handicap at Cork, but she was struggling to make any impact when not helped by being hampered in the straight. Of her two runs since, she didn't shape too badly in a rated race over 12f at Tramore in which she faced a stiff task on adjusted ratings, when she raced freely in the lead before being headed and weakened inside the final furlong. There was a bit of market support around for her on her latest start over 9.5f at Cork (good), when she again attempted to make all, but having been taken on for the lead from 3f out by Ben Siegel (who bolted up when turned out quickly the next day), she was soon left behind from around 2f out. Catch Kodi has her stamina to prove for this test and wears a first time hood today to try and help her settle better. So all things considered she looks hugely up against it as her odds suggest, but she comes here fit off the Flat and I suspect she's a little better than her Flat rating would suggest. Albert Camus, formerly trained by John Gosden, is rated 89 on the Flat and cost current connections 115,000 gns in July. He proved easy to back ahead of his hurdles debut at Down Royal last month when finishing fourth and splitting today's rivals Television and Gamigin, when he wasn't helped by a bad mistake three out. Perhaps the most interesting of the Flat recruits making their hurdling debuts here is the Joseph O'Brien-trained Powerful Keiran, who won easily when stepped up to 14f at Killarney (good) last month and is now rated 83 on the level. The Noel Meade-trained Too Bright has been raised a stone on the Flat to a mark of 72 for winning what didn't look the strongest of 12f handicaps at Roscommon (good) under two weeks ago, but has to be respected coming from this source. The other Flat winner in the field is the American-bred Prince Of Verona, who was put up 9lb to a mark of 81 after winning a 10f handicap at Naas (good) in July, but has subsequently been dropped 3lb following a well-beaten run at Galway on softer ground. The other one in the market is Razdan, rated 77 on the Flat and whose form suggests he should stay and won't mind the forecast soft ground. |
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Catch Kodi went along nicely in front for a fair way, but the game was up when headed around 3 furlongs out and ended up a well held 5th.
It didn't look much of a race Too Bright won on the level at Roscommon, but the handicapper knew by sticking him up 14lb that he was a lot better than a rating of 58 suggested. Running P/L: -7 pts |
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Bell Ex One, 1pt win @ 7-1, 1.30 Listowel
There are two 3YO hurdles today. I do have a qualifier in the one at Plumpton, but I'm going to pass on this occasion. Which leaves me with Bell Ex One at Listowel. I selected him when he made his hurdles debut at Down Royal (good ground, 2m1f), and having been as big as 8-1 on the morning, he was perhaps surprisingly heavily backed and sent off at 13-8 favourite. Unfortunately for me he ran into one, Realist, who re-opposes today under a 6lb penalty, with connections opting to try and negate most of that by employing a 5lb conditional. Bell Ex One's hurdling could have been better and he had a wider trip than the winner, so it could be closer between the pair today if Bell Ex One can hurdle better this time, though that said, I'm not sure this furlong shorter trip is ideal for Bell Ex One, being a 14f winner on the level. This looks quite a hot race with the Willie Mullins and Noel Meade representatives Feigh and Too Bright both having won easily on their hurdling debuts, and also Calvados, another to win on her hurdles debut, so fair to say my confidence isn't high. |
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Bell Ex One managed to reverse the form with Realist, and that proved to be the key form line.
Maybe they kept him wide last time because they were worried about his jumping, which although was far from perfect today, did improve. Running P/L: 0 pts |
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Tough crowd today - Well done!
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Thank you, The Management. I think the ones who hammered it into 13-8 last time, haven't forgiven me
 Hopefully they got it back today. Losses only lent, as they say. |
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good call george i put this up in the team comp and whilst i did jump a bit better than at down royal i thought the pundits claiming it jumped a lot better were of the mark,disappointing sp
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Well done with the comp winner, jimnast.
Agree about its jumping, it might have been a bit better, but I think the main point, which I said in my write-up and what the trainer mentioned in the post-race interview, was the wide trip at Down Royal, which he obviously didn't have this time. I thought maybe they'd kept him wide at DR because they knew his hurdling was a bit 'iffy', but apparently he had schooled well at home. Mind, don't they always say that? Apparently the horse had failed to sell or meet its reserve in an online auction two weeks earlier, which is perhaps surprising, given he looks a good sort physically and evidently isn't short of stamina. |
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that is surprising george i should think connections will be happy about that now ,hard to be sure but its probable that was a decent race yesterday 3 had been visually impressive winners the time before although only at ballinrobe and kilarney for the 2 that ran poor.
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WD with the Bell yesterday GB
Just need to match your flat total now  |
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Ta Mad'
It's in the lap of the gods as far as this thread is concerned. We're dealing with a small pool of horses regardless, and god knows what I'll have turning up in them that I'd happened to note on the Flat. I think it's probably very much a pre-Christmas thing, cuz then you're going to have the better types coming out from the bigger jump yards, and if I have still have 'qualifiers' running in the New Year, then it probably means they've been on the go for a while and encountering 'tougher' ground than they were noted on. |
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White Pepper, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 1.00 Gowran
Xeres, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.00 Gowran I have two qualifiers in this 3YO hurdle and I'm going to select them both EW against the field. White Pepper took thirteen attempts to get off the mark, and although it didn't look the most competitive of maidens that she won at Tramore last month, it was her first attempt at 12 furlongs and she seemed to stay the trip well. She's rated 82 on the level, so perhaps it was surprising to see her turn up in Group Three company over 14f at Goodwood on her latest start, particularly as the ground was probably quick enough for her, and she was a well beaten last of five. She's in much calmer waters here on her hurdling debut and will benefit from any rain that has fallen. Xeres ran well in maidens at Sligo and Navan in May, and although he's been a little disappointing in two starts since, he might have found the ground too quick at Fairyhouse in June, after which he was absent for over three months, and might have needed his latest run at Gowran when not shaping too badly. He was initially rated 81 on the level, and hopefully that latest spin on the Flat has set him up nicely for this first run over hurdles. |
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Not good. I don't think the ground was ideal for either of them, judging by the time (just nine seconds outside standard, more good than good to soft imo) and how they finished off.
White Pepper was well supported into 100-30, but could only stay on into fifth and would have preferred more cut. Running P/L: -4 pts |
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Genuflex, 1pt Win @ 9-1, 1.00 Ludlow
I've only one qualifier in this, Genuflex, who I noted as a 2YO over 6f, thinking he'd be one to go on improving over longer trips given he's related to winners at 10f and beyond, and his dam won the 14f Group 3 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Genuflex did go on to win over a mile and he's run ok since over 10f, including on his final start for Richard Hannon in July, when finishing third behind two who have franked the form since. Genuflex is returning from three months off today on his hurdles debut for Milton Harris, having been sold for 20,000 gns and gelded since last seen. He does have to prove his stamina, but at least the forecast good ground should help in that regard, and he wears a tongue tie for the first time. His Flat rating of 74 is pretty much on a par with the best of these who have a mark on the level. Scots Gold and Oneonechop have the benefit of previous hurdling experience, and have official ratings in this sphere of 106 and 101 respectively. Allset and Saint Riquier are intriguing runners having been winners on what was described as soft ground in France, and it will be interesting to see what the market makes of them on this their debuts for respected yards. |
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I didn't see that one coming, the 40-1 rag wins, with Genuflex finishing second after trading odds-on in the run.
Running P/L: -5 pts |
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A couple of juvenile hurdles today. My only qualifier in the Sedgefield one is Genuflex, who I selected when he finished runner-up on his hurdles debut at Ludlow. He's currently as short as 1-3, so I'll pass on that one.
Rhebus Road, 1pt win @ 10-1, 1.00 Kempton Rhebus Road comes here in good nick off the Flat having won at Newmarket 24 days ago when he had a subsequent winner behind him in third. He had been doing a bit too much in his races, but looked more amenable last time with the headgear left off. His Flat rating of 74 is the lowest in this field of four but not by much, and he is receiving weight from the two penalised runners. His two wins on the level were on good to firm ground, and as a 12f winner round Beverley, stamina shouldn't be an issue. So he has good credentials for this switch of code if he takes to it. Impulsive One has looked pretty good in winning two of these so far, and while this looks a stiffer task under a 10lb penalty, his experience will stand him in good stead. Knight Salute is the other penalised runner, who also faces a stiffer task under a penalty after making a winning hurdles debut at Sedgefield. The Alan King-trained Painless Potter has yet to win in nine starts on the Flat, but has made the frame twice this season when rated 79, so has to be respected coming from this source. |
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* I should have mentioned the change of stable for Rhebus Road, having left Ralph Beckett's yard to join Oliver Sherwood's.
So change of feed, routine, etc and whatever affect that may have, but fitness shouldn't be an issue. For anyone interested in a proper preview / analysis of these juvenile hurdles, this guy on another forum was highlighted on my thread last season. He clearly spends a lot of time and effort producing some in depth write ups. https://theracingforum.co.uk/forums/topic/juvenile-hurdlers-2021-22/page/7/ |
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Poor from Rhebus Road who folded tamely. Maybe the run came too soon after the stable switch, having won just 24 days earlier for his previous yard on the Flat.
Running P/L: -6 pts |
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White Pepper, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 1.20 Gowran
I'm going to give another chance to White Pepper. She took enough goes to get off the mark on the Flat, but that win came when she was stepped up in trip to 12f at Tramore, albeit in what wasn't the most competitive of fillies' maidens. I selected her on her hurdles debut at Gowran when she finished fifth, two lengths behind today's rival Helvic Princess (who was second), and in front of three of today's rivals including the Willie Mullins-trained Loughisle Lady, who was sent off favourite and probably shaped better than the bare result. White Pepper was well backed, so perhaps better could have been expected, but she did keep on quite well and it's possible she could have done with more cut in the ground. Her Flat rating of 82 is just one pound below that of Powerful Kieran's, from whom she receives the 7lb fillies' allowance. Gordon Elliott introduces French import Iberique Du Seuill, who has been strong in the early market exchanges, and obviously commands respect coming from a yard which has been a force in this division in recent times. |
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WD GB
Good job it never headed to Gowran |
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WD George, excellent call. See Angel Bleu popped in again at Saint Cloud today.
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Cheers mad' & the numbers seven
Hey, after reading the thread about the Paddy Power punter, I need to be more careful about what meeting I put down Good to see, the numbers seven, it will be interesting to see how he trains on. Apparently the French Guineas is the target. |
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Running P/L: +2.4 pts
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