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George's 2021 / 22 Juvenile Hurdle Selection Thread
George's 2021 / 22 Juvenile Hurdle Selection Thread
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Prince Of Nepal, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.00 Fontwell
I have five qualifiers in this, Boulette and Rhebus Road, who have been selected on the thread previously, and also Largo Bay, Cirrus and Largo Bay. I'm going to take a chance on Pride Of Nepal EW at the prices. He hadn't been running too badly on the AW, and last time at Bath over 11.5f on good ground, he probably ran better than it appeared given he seemed to do plenty on the sharp end under an inexperienced amateur. He has a bit to find with a few of these if Flat ratings are any guide, and has to prove he has the stamina for this sort of test, but he comes here fit from the Flat, and probably in better form than his latest run might suggest. Baby Sham, 1pt win @ 20-1, 2.35 Fontwell Baby Sham has been selected previously on the thread, and like yesterday's pick Gavin is being given another chance now she switches to handicap company. She hasn't been disgraced in a couple of her hurdle runs so far, and her best effort was probably when finishing a well held third behind a couple of useful sorts at Stratford last month. I did wonder if she might prove more effective under easier conditions than she's had the chance to race on so far, and she does have to prove her stamina for this 2m3f trip, but this looks a more realistic opportunity in receipt of the wfa allowance. |
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* Pride Of Nepal
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After having no qualifiers in the two 3YO hurdles yesterday, today it was a case of too many cooks spoil the broth as far as I was concerned, as I had five qualifiers in the one race and it was the two who had been selected previously on the thread, Boulette and Rhebus Road, who fought out the finish.
I went with Pride Of Nepal at the prices, and he crept nicely into it, looking like he might nick a place, but his stamina seemed to give way and he faded to fifth. He doesn't look the biggest, but he offered enough to suggest he may have a future under this code at the minimum trip in handicaps. Baby Sham was readily outpaced when the pace lifted before staying on in a manner that suggested she does get the trip, albeit in what might not have been the most strongly run of contests. I just wonder if she wants easier ground, so that will be the straw I'll be clutching at next time. Running P/L: +33 pts |
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Outback Boy, 1pt win @ 10-1, 12.45 Catterick
I've just the one qualifier in this and that's Outback Boy. He failed to win in seven starts for Mark Johnston, but was first past the post at Ripon over 12f on g/s in July, from one who had won his previous start. He didn't back that effort up in two subsequent starts and I just wonder if the sounder surfaces might have been the reason, which would be a concern with the ground set to be on the quick side today. If Flat ratings are any guide he would appear to have place prospects at least in this field, but coming off a break having switched yards, with the ground a query, I'll just take the all or nothing approach and make him an on the nose selection. Sonning is currently rated the highest of these on the Flat by 3lb and upwards. He made a satisfactory start over hurdles at Wincanton when runner-up to a previous winner who appeared to get the run of things out in front. Sonning's best form on the level came on good to firm, so he won't mind the prevailing conditions. Ivynator is a dual winner on the AW, and is rated the same as Outback Boy on the Flat. He finished a well held fourth on his hurdles debut at Warwick, but according to RPRs it was a higher-rated effort than Sonning's hurdles debut. I suppose there is a query as to whether he's as effective on turf as he is the AW, this should tell us more. The other one in the market is Myboymax, who has a bit to find on Flat ratings, but knows how to win and should have no problem with stamina. He has been well supported in the betting this morning. |
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With a query remaining about Ivynator on turf, and Myboymax not justifying market support, this proved straightforward for Sonning.
Outback Boy, who I had a query about on quicker ground, proved easy to back, was keen on a steady pace and didn't hurdle too well, and while he wasn't hard ridden up the straight, he was struggling to make much of an impact whatever. Maybe handicaps and a bit easier ground will show him in a better light. The stable have now gone 41 runners since their last winner over jumps. |
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Running P/L: +32 pts
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Rebel Step, 1pt win @ 14-1, 1.00 Punchestown
A maximum field of twenty for this 3YO hurdle which features some useful recruits off the Flat. I have three qualifiers - Ben Siegel, Rebel Step and Tullypole Annie. I try to let the prices dictate the selection when I have more than one to choose from, but as Tullypole Annie looks to have plenty to prove in this sphere having shown her best form off a low rating over 6f on the Flat, I'll go with Rebel Step. Rebel Step is officially rated 87 on the Flat, which is 5lb inferior to the favourite Gentleman Joe, so he has the ability to go well in this, but I guess the main query for this American-bred is stamina, having been largely kept to a mile on the level. Ben Siegel has a bit to find with a few of these if Flat ratings are any guide, but he should be fine stamina-wise, and was still improving when last seen on the Flat when looking a shade unfortunate not win his latest start at Dundalk. Gentleman Joe hasn't been seen since May when he was unsurprisingly no match for subsequent Irish Derby runner-up Lone Eagle and Breeders' Cup winner Yabir in a Listed contest at Goodwood. He's officially rated 92 on the level, and has joined Henry de Bromhead's yard ahead of his hurdling debut. Of the other recruits from the Flat, Brazil and Prairie Dancer both have ratings in the 80s. Brazil is a full-brother to Irish Derby and St Leger winner Capri, and while he's not in the same league, perhaps it's significant that this former Ballydoyle inmate is now in the ownership of JP McManus, and he didn't shape too badly at Dundalk last month when returning from six months off. |
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A good thread, George, and good luck with your bets today. I am on Loughisle Lady w/p.
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Thank you, undertaker, and good luck with Loughisle Lady.
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Spoilsports going free bet if 2nd to fav -not much but it all helps.
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Thanks for letting us know, Manoleeds
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Haven't looked in for a good while GEORGE. Good to see the thread in profit. Good luck for your future selections.
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Morning George,
I'm sure you're aware, but just to mention Gavin running in another handicap, last race at Southwell today - and also another juvenile, The Yellow Mini trying her hand over 2m 4f in the previous race. Based on the stamina she showed at Fontwell, that trip might suit her. |
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Cheers stewy
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Afternoon Anorak
Yes, I did see that he's running again. For the purposes of this thread, I obviously try to catch them when they're not so obvious and a bit of a price, and let them go when their chance is there for all to see. It did seem they made a lot of use of The Yellow Mini the other day at Fontwell, and I see the RP comments are "led at fast pace". I thought my selection for that race Pride Of Nepal was going to get to past her, but maybe a combination of his stamina being suspect and her's not, enabled her to hold onto fourth. So yes, ridden with a tad more restraint this time, can see the trip suiting. |
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Rebel Step was close up and still travelling OK when falling 2 out, though still had his stamina to prove at that point.
My other main qualifier Ben Siegel won in good style, and it will be interesting to see how he progresses in this sphere. Running P/L: +31 pts |
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Oot Ma Way, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 11.45 Newcastle
Just the six runners for this Class 2 event, and my two qualifiers are the two fillies in the field, Galah and Oot Ma Way. I'll let the prices dictate the selection again and go with the latter. If Flat ratings are any guide, Oot Ma Way has plenty to find, even in receipt of allowances, and she has a record of 0-6 on grass as opposed to 2-6 on the AW, but she has run and shaped well on turf, including when runner-up over 10f at Ayr in August on soft ground. There is a stamina query, particularly in what could be difficult weather conditions, but she seems versatile regarding ground surfaces, and comes here having won two of her last three on the Flat. Galah has run okay on occasions this year on the Flat without progressing and her official rating has dropped 9lb. She has joined a stable that has been doing well in this division this season. Stamina-wise, she's bred to stay well, but she didn't conclusively prove her stamina for 12f when second of four at Leicester in August, though a first time tongue-tie today may help. Of the two penalised winners, Too Friendly has the much higher Flat rating of 85, which is 15lb superior to Twilight Twist, but it remains to be seen where their limitations lie in this sphere. Johnny Boom looks an interesting recruit for Brian Ellison having won three times over 10f for Richard Fahey this season. There is a query should the ground soften given he was well held at odds of 11-10 the one time he encountered an easy surface, with wins on a sounder surface either side of this. The field is completed by Bamboo Bay, a 36,000 gns purchase out of Joseph O'Brien's stable, who has only run four times and ended his time in Ireland by narrowly winning a 15-runner handicap at Roscommon off a mark of 70, when wearing a first time tongue tie. |
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the record of Skeltons with Gredley horses from the flat is very impressive and I just can't oppose Too Friendly. Newcastle might still be off though.
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It is on and I was right. Probably the best GB based 3yo so far. After Allmankind and Stepney Causeway, this makes 3 very good hurdlers in those colours.
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Well done sageform
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My pick Oot Ma Way, took a grip which wasn't ideal given the conditions and was soon allowed to stride on into a clear lead for a while, and in circumstances wasn't disgraced despite finishing only 5th of the 6 runners.
My other qualifier Galah ran all right to be third. Running P/L: +29 pts |
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Galah very promising. Another for Milton Harris.
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Won't be watching today but the 3yo at Leicester 12.55 looks interesting. I have a small bet on Buxted Two who seems competitive on flat form and is trained by Ian Williams who knows how to get a hurdler ready.
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Good luck sageform. A further inspection at Leicester scheduled for 10.30
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That bad is it. I see Carlisle is already off. A family day won't mean missing much
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Outback Boy, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 12.55 Leicester
I've two qualifiers in this, the favourite Book Of Secrets and Outback Boy, who I selected when he made his hurdles debut at Catterick nine days ago. I was concerned about the sound surface at Catterick for Outback Boy, and he didn't help himself by racing freely and not being fluent with his hurdling. I think it's fair to say he wasn't knocked about up the straight, and the way he's drifted in the betting this morning could suggest he's one for handicaps, but he's entitled to benefit from that initial experience, hopefully the ground will have more cut in it this time and a first time hood will help him settle better. |
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A Betfair SP of 170 for Outback Boy, and having been dropped out the back, that's where he stayed.
Running P/L: +27 pts |
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Lydford yet another winner for Gredley/Skelton but he is a 4yo. What a strike rate they have!
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Tommaso, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 12.55 Market Rasen
I have two qualifiers in this - Liberated Lad and Tommaso. I'll go with Tommaso at the prices, who shaped with promise in four starts for Stef Keniry on the Flat, when looking green, not settling too well, and as one who appears to have a knee action perhaps not ideally suited by a sounder surface on three occasions. I selected him on my Flat notebook thread when he made his debut for Phil Kirby over 10f at Ayr when returning from a 3-month break, but he was weak in the betting and offered little. However, there were much more encouraging signs when last seen six weeks ago over 10f at Doncaster on soft ground, when not getting a clear run in the closing stages. He has a bit to find with a few of these if Flat ratings are any guide but has left the impression there is scope for improvement. Liberated Lad comes here in good form off the Flat having won his latest start at Kempton over 12f. He missed his intended debut over hurdles at Wetherby last week on account of "unsuitable ground", but seems versatile regarding surface having won on good to firm at Windsor, and just been denied on soft ground at Hamilton. Tease And Seize also has a bit to find on Flat ratings but promises to be better in this sphere having comfortably won on his stable and hurdles debut at Ludlow over two miles on good ground last month. The American-bred Glide Down is the highest rated on these on the level that have an official rating, now being rated 72 having initially been rated 80. This six race maiden is returning from six months off and perhaps the close-to-the-off market will give some clues as to expectations. The other one in the market is Monjules, who ran over hurdles seven times in France, and made his experience count when winning on his British debut at Sedgefield last month in what might not have been the strongest of juvenile hurdles. Great Commission, who's bred to stay well, has only had three career starts and although comfortably held on his hurdles debut when third at Sedgefield seven weeks ago, he wasn't disgraced behind one who subsequently finished runner-up in a Listed hurdle. He has since been sold out of Patrick Haslam's yard for 18,000 gns and makes his debut here for Jo Davis. |
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* 12.52 Market Rasen
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* Apologies, Ben Haslam's yard.
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My guess,Great Commission
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Good luck tanglefoot, and the good news is the meeting is on.
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Cheers,George,let’s hope one of us will take home the bacon
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A nice performance by the winner under a penalty.
Tommaso managed to get the place money, having travelled nicely into it (touched evens for not much money), and in hindsight might have been better served by hanging on to him for longer, though whether he'd have beaten the winner whatever, not so sure. My other qualifier Liberated Lad didn't see his race out on the ground, so may need better ground under this code. Running P/L: +28.8 pts |
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Storm Catcher, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 1.15 Sandown
I've just the one qualifier in this and that is Storm Catcher, for whom I have a notebook run on the AW. It's perhaps surprising to see him over hurdles given his best form has come on the AW, and he has a bit to prove on this switch of code, not least his stamina, though there is encouragement in his pedigree for longer trips as his granddam was a winner of the Ribblesdale. The longest trip he has tackled on the Flat so far was 8.5f on soft ground in a 2YO novice race at Nottingham, when keeping on to be third behind two who are now rated in the 80s. So he does have ability and has an official rating of 76, which is the second highest in this field of those who have an OR on the Flat. He may not be the most straightforward as he might have cost himself victory at Kempton in August when hanging across the track before going down narrowly. So a few questions answer regarding stamina, turf and temperament, but he does have the raw ability to challenge for a place at least in this field if taking to this discipline. Forever Blessed impressed on his racecourse debut at Ffos Las when winning comfortably from a previous hurdles winner, and obviously looks the one to beat if as effective on what is likely to be a sounder surface. Romeo's Bond is only rated 55 on the Flat, but despite being by Monsieur Bond he clearly relished the step up in trip to a stretch two miles when making a winning hurdles debut at Exeter last month. He is a half-brother to a 2m5f winner over hurdles, and it remains to be seen where his limitations lie over longer trips. Optimistic Belief currently has the highest rating of those with a mark on the Flat, and he had run well in a couple of maidens in Ireland before winning one over 11f at Killarney in July. He has been gelded ahead of his stable and hurdles debut. Hayedo halved in price from his opening show when making his hurdles debut for Gary Moore at Fontwell last month, despite a warning from his owner pre-race that the gelding was likely to need the experience. He didn't hurdle with fluency and finished well held, and it will be interesting to see if is backers return with that run behind him. Buxted Too won over 7f on the AW back in April, and ran some fair races in defeat after, including when making the frame in class 2 and 3 handicaps over a mile and 10f, so has the ability to go well here if his stamina lasts (has failed to place in three attempts at 12f). It's perhaps surprising to see Many Words relatively prominent in the betting given he finished well held on his hurdles debut for Tony Carroll at Ludlow, having been keen enough. However, he did run well in maidens over 10 and 12f for his previous yard in Ireland, so a better show wouldn't surprise if settling better this time. |
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I will try Buxted Two again although this might be more competitive. I was a bit disappointed with Glide Down yesterday. He jumped fine but didn't seem to get home.
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Good luck, sageform.
Tbh, I wasn't sure about Glide Down yesterday, but tbf the first three pulled a long way clear, and it's picked up in the RP analysis /comments that he wasn't fluent 3 out and then made a "bad mistake" two out. |
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Thanks George, it didn't look that bad but I will attempt to get my cash back when it next runs. I suppose that the winner might turn out very useful. Forever Blessed did not beat anything out of the ordinary so might struggle with a penalty.
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As so often in juvenile hurdles, only 3 got the trip and they had all run before.
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