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George's 2021 / 22 Juvenile Hurdle Selection Thread

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Replies: 363
By:
sageform
When: 11 Dec 21 14:16
Porticello backed heavily now. Can't really see it but I will sit it out. Just noticed that it is Brennan's only ride today on Knights Salute. Coole Cody has rescued me from a bad day so hanging on to my money now.
By:
sageform
When: 11 Dec 21 14:47
Paddy knew he was on a very good horse. Idling in front again.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Dec 21 12:41
Tommaso, 1pt win @ 15-2, 1.45 Catterick

I've three qualifiers in this: Kayfast Warrior, Tommaso and Outback Boy.

Tommaso has drifted in the betting this morning and I'll take a chance on him at the prices. I selected him on his hurdles debut at Market Rasen when he shaped well in finishing third having arguably made his move for home soon enough. The concern I have about his chance today is the drying ground as he does have an action that suggests he'll be better served by softer going. He hasn't had many chances for Phil Kirby, having shaped well in a few starts on the Flat for Stef Keniry.

Outback Boy has been selected twice previously on this thread and both occasions has shaped as though he may be a handicap project. This will be his third run for a mark.

Kayfast Warrior won five times on the Flat this season at up to 9f on various surfaces whilst climbing 30lb in the ratings. He has to prove his stamina for this on his hurdles debut for Donald McCain, but there is encouragement in his pedigree being out of a Montjeu mare, and although he didn't quite see out the 10f at Pontefract when last seen, he was coming off a 75 day break and had taken a keen hold.

Inca Prince is the highest rated of these on the Flat with a mark of 84, which is 2lb superior to Kayfast Warrior's. He's rated 119 over hurdles after three respectable runs over hurdles in Ireland, and has his first start here for Ruth Jefferson.

Krypton Gold is rated around 30lb inferior to the best of these on the Flat after seven starts in Ireland, but is a half-brother to the very useful hurdler Aspire Tower, and he promises to be better at this discipline having made a satisfactory start over hurdles when finishing second at Leicester on his debut for Stuart Edmunds.

Kayfast Warrior's stablemate Lindwall won three times on the AW for Sir Mark Prescott, and has his effectiveness on turf to prove after finishing well beaten on his hurdles debut at Wetherby. A tongue tie is tried today, but jockey bookings would suggest he is the stable's second string.

Shielded is a six-race maiden on the Flat who showed ability when making the frame in a couple of his starts for the Crisfords.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Dec 21 14:21
Poor. He probably wants softer ground.

Running P/L: +28.8 pts
By:
TheAnorak
When: 15 Dec 21 09:49
Morning George,

I suspect this is down to my age related memory failure, but looking at the Newbury juvenile race today, has Nicholls ever had a decent filly running in this type of race before?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Dec 21 10:41
Morning Anorak.

I can't think of any off the top of my head, but guess not many 100-rated 3YO fillies on the Flat are sent juvenile hurdling!

She is on my list of qualifiers, but will of course pass at the prices, particularly with a query about drying ground for her.

My other qualifier in this is Pride Of Nepal, who I selected at Fontwell over a furlong further trip, when he didn't seem to stay. This shorter trip may help but this looks a stronger race, so will just watch today.

An interesting race though with a few fair types off the Flat taking on One Journey, notably Line Of Descent who cost 135,000 gns out of the Crisfords' yard, along with Moka De Vassy, who was clearly expected to run a lot better than he did at Ffos Las given the strong market support for him (albeit something had to be backed given some seemed to know expensive purchase Zinc White was going to run a shocker).
By:
sageform
When: 15 Dec 21 10:48
Going back to Saturday at Doncaster, how can RPR rate Knight Salute so low at 124? He beat some proven rivals and has an official handicap mark of 134 which seems more like it. Either we have not seen any decent 3yos yet (which is possible) or the RPRs for the Summit are very low.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Dec 21 11:33
sageform, perhaps the close proximity to each other of the first three didn't impress the RPR assessor?

The time wasn't too bad compared to the older horse C2 handicap when considering the weights carried.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Dec 21 11:34
Could be a turf trivia question, name the last 3YO filly with a three digit official rating on the Flat to run in a juvenile hurdle.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 15 Dec 21 11:59
I think it's because the RPR is reduced by the weight for age allowance, so as to avoid problems when 3yos run in handicaps against older horses. Whereas the official handicap is reduced when the weights are published, so that the 134 rated Knight Salute will carry the same weight as a 124 rated older horse.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Dec 21 12:38
Thanks for the explanation, Anorak.

A couple of bubbles burst there. They opined on RTV that stamina was an issue for One Journey ridden forward like that, which looked a fair assessment, but I think there's also a ground element, she did look a different filly on soft ground on the Flat.

Line Of Descent looks like he has the size for this game, but like One Journey might have had too much use made of him.

The winner looks a useful recruit given his stamina and likable determined attitude.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 15 Dec 21 13:03
I don't have any stats to back this up, but my instinct is that it's quite rare for an Alan King juvenile to win first time out, and that when they do, they turn out to be useful.
By:
sageform
When: 15 Dec 21 13:05
Yes thanks Theanorak but RPR seem to be more conservative about bumper ratings as well. Rarely get to 140.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Dec 21 09:13
Baby Sham, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 3.27 Fontwell

Baby Sham has been a bit of a let down for the thread so far, but I'm going to select her again even though she's 4lb out of the handicap today, now she has the opportunity to race on what is likely to be softer ground than she's had the chance to race on so far over hurdles.

She didn't have many chances on turf on the Flat, but my "mark up" run for her came at Newmarket on heavy ground as a 2YO, albeit it was more of a track position observation rather than she definitely wants testing ground.

Baby Sham didn't offer much in an AW handicap back on the Flat on her latest start, but previously didn't shape too badly over today's C/D on her hurdles handicap debut, when leaving the impression she could have done with a stronger gallop.

Fiamette is the other 3YO in this taking on her elders. She has run well on her last two juvenile hurdle starts when encountering a softer surface, finishing fourth at Ffos Las behind Forever Blessed (who subsequently won easily at Sandown under a penalty), and last time at this track over 2m1.5f when staying on well in a manner which suggested she'll appreciate today's longer trip.
By:
undertaker
When: 26 Dec 21 09:22
Good luck with your bets George. I have gone for a couple of the older horses w/p - One Last Glance and King Of The Story.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Dec 21 09:41
Good luck, undertaker
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Dec 21 09:49
There are four juvenile hurdles tomorrow including the Grade 1 at Chepstow
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Dec 21 17:05
Baby Sham managed to make the frame.

Running P/L: +32.2 pts
By:
undertaker
When: 27 Dec 21 04:21
Well done George. Looking forward to reading your thoughts on today's races.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Dec 21 08:46
Cheers, undertaker.

I'm actually just going to keep it brief today and only make a couple of selections.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Dec 21 08:53
I've got qualifiers in all four 3YO races today, but I'm just going to stick with Kempton and Wetherby.

Rewired, 1pt win @ 9-1, 12.45 Kempton

Rewired is currently rated 78 on the Flat, and he ended the season with a fair second over 10f on soft ground at Doncaster. He's a half-brother to two who stayed well on the Flat, and one of them did win over hurdles. Rewired is by a lesser stamina influence in Power, and he has yet to prove himself beyond 10f on the level, so there is a slight query about his stamina for this game. He's joined a respected yard and it will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market on what looks a fairly stiff introduction to this discipline.

Lifetime Legend, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.45 Wetherby

Lifetime Legend looks an interesting recruit to hurdling as he showed a fair level of ability on the Flat for Andy Oliver in Ireland, and he looks like he has the size for this game. I get the impression that he's just a galloper who doesn't have much in the way of a change of gear. The furthest he has gone so far on the Flat is 11f, when he was a never nearer third of fifteen in a soft ground handicap at Killarney in October, behind one who went on to finish second in the Irish November handicap off a stone higher mark.

He was sold for 55,000gns in October and has joined Neil King's yard ahead of his hurdling debut, and again it will be interesting to see what the market makes of him closer to the off.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Dec 21 08:54
I've got qualifiers in all four 3YO races today, but I'm just going to stick with Kempton and Wetherby.

Rewired, 1pt win @ 9-1, 12.45 Kempton

Rewired is currently rated 78 on the Flat, and he ended the season with a fair second over 10f on soft ground at Doncaster. He's a half-brother to two who stayed well on the Flat, and one of them did win over hurdles. Rewired is by a lesser stamina influence in Power, and he has yet to prove himself beyond 10f on the level, so there is a slight query about his stamina for this game. He's joined a respected yard and it will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market on what looks a fairly stiff introduction to this discipline.

Lifetime Legend, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.45 Wetherby

Lifetime Legend looks an interesting recruit to hurdling as he showed a fair level of ability on the Flat for Andy Oliver in Ireland, and he looks like he has the size for this game. I got the impression that he's just a galloper who doesn't have much in the way of a change of gear. The furthest he has gone so far on the Flat is 11f, when he was a never nearer third of fifteen in a soft ground handicap at Killarney in October, behind one who went on to finish second in the Irish November handicap off a stone higher mark.

He was sold for 55,000gns in October and has joined Neil King's yard ahead of his hurdling debut, and again it will be interesting to see what the market makes of him closer to the off.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Dec 21 09:03
Mega write up on the Finale Hurdle by our friend on TRF


https://theracingforum.co.uk/forums/topic/juvenile-hurdlers-2021-22/page/9/
By:
sageform
When: 27 Dec 21 09:18
I am giving Magistrato another chance at Chepstow.
By:
undertaker
When: 27 Dec 21 09:45
A good read as ever, George. I wouldn't be massively concerned about Rewired's stamina, because Powers have a pretty good record over obstacles at slightly further than today's trip. They usually prefer slightly better ground, but Rewired himself seems to handle soft well on the flat. There is also an abundance of stamina on the dam's side, so I think Rewired should stay well enough.

In the above races I have gone for Iceo (Coastal Path) and Piecederesistance (Gleneagles), simply because both sires have a good record over hurdles on today's going/trip.

Good luck.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Dec 21 10:31
Good luck with your picks, sageform and undertaker.

Regarding Rewired's stamina, based on the run as a 2YO over 10f on heavy ground at Newmarket and his pedigree, you would have said with confidence that he will stay well as a 3YO, but his three runs beyond 10f this year have left a question mark.

I'm not surprised to see that the price on Lifetime Legend has collapsed, the 12-1 that was generally on offer did look big based on what we know about him on the Flat against today's opposition. Let's hope it's insider money and they know!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Dec 21 14:12
Well done with Iceo, undertaker.

I think Rewired stayed fine to finish second in what looked quite a test on the ground for them given how strung out they finished, but obviously the winner was in a different league.

Anorak gave a good word for Iroko previously on the thread, and he finished fourth at a big price in the Grade 1 on his British debut. He looks a big scopey sort.

Seconditis for me today, as my other selection Lifetime Legend also finished runner-up. He traded odds-on on the run-in as it briefly looked like he might reel in the leader, but it wasn't to be.

Running P/L: +32.9 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Dec 21 09:55
Pump It Up, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 1.03 Doncaster

I've got three qualifiers in this fillies' juvenile maiden - Galah, Cirrus and Pump It Up.

I'm going to take a chance EW on Pump It Up, who has plenty to find on both Flat and hurdle official ratings, however, her Flat form shows that she is more effective on soft / heavy ground and this will be the easiest ground she's had the chance to race on in this sphere.

Galah, who did the thread a favour when making the frame at big odds last month in a Cheltenham class 2 race, has been allotted an initial hurdles rating that is 27lb superior to Pump It Up's. The second horse home at Cheltenham, Yorksea, has since won easily at odds of 4-6.

Galah's stablemate Cirrus probably shaped better than the distance beaten suggested on her hurdles debut at Fontwell over 2m1.5f, having travelled well up to a point (reportedly made a respiratory noise and subsequently underwent wind surgery). She's been well held since in a run over hurdles and on the Flat. This furlong shorter trip over hurdles may prove more suitable but stamina remains a query.

Ramure, whose rating is 7lb inferior to Galah's, finished runner-up to subsequent Grade 2 winner Knight Salute at Sedgefield in September. She was pulled up after a bursting a blood vessel when last seen and has had two months off since.

Tiki Fire wasn't disgraced last time under a 10lb conditional against male opposition at Warwick when she wasn't helped by a bad mistake three out.

The other one in the market is Olympe de Gouges, who only ran once for John Gosden, and was well beaten in a Wolverhampton maiden on her debut for David Pipe when next seen ten months later in October. This will be her first opportunity to race on turf.

Simply Red didn't shape too badly when finishing fourth against males on her hurdles debut at Market Rasen earlier this month.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 29 Dec 21 11:00
Morning George,

I thought Iroko looked a future chaser much more than a juvenile hurdler - if he was mine, his next outing would be a NH novice hurdle over at least 2M 3F, looking ahead to the possibility of taking advantage of the 4yo weight for age allowance in the 2M 4F novice hurdle at Aintree.

By contrast, Illico des Places was a big disappointment at Kempton - I'd have rated his French form as at least equal if not better than Iceo. He'll have plenty to prove next time, hopefully given a more sensible ride.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Dec 21 11:40
Morning Anorak,

I see what you mean about the trip for Iroko, he'd raced wide enough on the track and after looking like he was going to drop away in the straight, he stayed on quite well to snatch fourth.

I guess it makes Iceo's performance all the more impressive given he'd sat close enough to Illico des Places on what probably was an overly strong pace, yet still looked like he could have gone round again at the finish while everything else was gasping for air.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 29 Dec 21 11:50
A couple of 3yo in the 1st at Doncaster, 1st & 2nd in the betting!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Dec 21 11:54
Boulette has been selected previously on the thread, DG, and I did think about selecting him again today, but decided to pass at the prices and just stick with the filly.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 29 Dec 21 12:59
Anorak

Surfman just ran in the 12.50N, are they the same colours that King's Curate ran in?
By:
Manoleeds
When: 29 Dec 21 13:10
Lowest was 1.56 -good shout though.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Dec 21 13:18
Cheers Manoleeds. She had no right to get close to Galah judged on official ratings, but she handled testing ground well on the Flat at her level, and that was her first chance to race on similar ground over hurdles.

Running P/L: +34.7 pts
By:
TheAnorak
When: 29 Dec 21 14:00
D G,

Yes, Peter Winkworth was the owner of King's Curate. After that one, he decided he could train better for himself and had a licence until about ten years ago.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 29 Dec 21 14:07
And it must be history day, as the runner-up in the 2:00 Newbury ran in the colours made famous by Burrough Hill Lad.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 29 Dec 21 14:11
Thanks Alan, funny how things stick in your mind!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Dec 21 10:35
Escobedo, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 12.45 Taunton

I have two qualifiers in this - Graystone and Escobedo.

I'll give a tentative vote to Escobedo. He's one I probably got wrong to be honest, having noted him on his reappearance at Windsor back in May, when he finished runner-up over a mile and left the impression being by Nathaniel that he'd appreciate further. As it turned out he failed to progress, including when stepped up in trip, and his mark has dropped 9lb.

On a positive note, he's joined a yard that has been doing well in this division, and while he has to prove his stamina for this, hopefully a first time tongue tie will be of benefit to him.

Graystone improved for stepping up to 10f + on the Flat. He got off the mark over hurdles at Warwick on his third attempt when perhaps appreciating the softer ground, though he did win on good to firm on the level. He has a mark of 124 in this sphere and would appear the one to beat even under a 7lb penalty.

The intriguing runner in this is the Paul Nicholls-trained Irish Hill, who won two of his four races on the Flat in France, over 12f and when last seen five months ago over 14f at Longchamp. Looking at the form comment for his latest win it appears he took a while to get on top, so a slight query about a relatively sharp test over hurdles. Also the four runs in France could indicate a preference for better ground, though hard to be sure based on such limited evidence.

Of the others, Brainstorm looks worth a mention as he has a win over hurdles to his name in France. He's had three months off since running poorly last time at Auteuil, but his experience should stand him in good stead and is officially rated just 2lb inferior to Graystone.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 30 Dec 21 10:54
Graystone for me,appears a heads or tails race
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