Good luck tanglefoot. Yes, there doesn't look much depth to it. Perhaps I should have mentioned Mothill, as his form in France would suggest he should stay and he has gone to a good yard.

I've just been reading what the guy on TRF has written about my selection, and he makes the point that Escobar's better runs have come when fresh. So I hope there is something in that.

Good luck to us both, DG.

The race that Brainstorm won in France was a dire six runner claiming hurdle - and the runner-up that day also ran in the Auteuil handicap hurdle in which Brainstorm was pulled up soon after halfway. And he finished a remote last of nine, further evidence that the French handicapper got carried away when rating the pair of them. The fourth from that claimer has run 17 times over obstacles already, managing a solitary win in a claiming chase.

I'll be very surprised if Brainstorm can cope with a mark of 122 in handicaps here.

Well done tanglefoot, jumping's the name of the game.

Not much market confidence behind my selection Escobar, who ended up a well held fifth.

I suggested a fiver EW on Girandale as an after-thought, and he briefly looked like he might win after Graystone fell, but he couldn't quite muster the pace.

Running P/L: +32.7 pts

Tommaso, 1pt win @ 10-1, 12.50 Wetherby

I have two qualifiers in this, Kayfast Warrior and Tommaso.

Tommaso is one I've selected previously on the thread when he ran well to finish third at Market Rasen on his hurdles debut, on ground that was described as "good to soft", but on times was probably softer than the "good to soft" he encountered when running poorly last time at Catterick when he didn't help himself by racing freely and making a bad mistake at the 4th flight.

I mention the ground because I get the impression from his action and form that he will prove better suited by a softer surface. He wants this for a mark and that tendency to race keenly, which he also showed in some of his Flat runs, is a concern in a small field where there may not be much pace on, but a chance is taken at the odds on ground that may prove more suitable than last time.

Kayfast Warrior won five times on the Flat last year at up to 9f on various surfaces whilst climbing 30lb in the ratings. He got off the mark over hurdles on his second attempt when finding extra on the run-in over today's C/D to hold off an interesting recruit from Ireland.

He has a 6lb penalty to carry and would appear to face a stick task against his main market rival Stand Staunch on form lines involving Inca Prince, a dual winner over hurdles since joining Ruth Jefferson from Ireland. Kayfast Warrior finished 24 lengths behind Inca Prince at Catterick on his hurdles debut when admittedly he might have needed the experience, whereas Stand Staunch had finished just a length behind that rival in a 16-runner race at Gowran (good to yielding) in early October.

Stand Staunch has since left Joseph O'Brien's yard and been off for three months, so it may not be as straightforward as that form line would suggest, especially when you factor in the forecast testing ground, but that obviously looks the standout piece of form in this field, particularly as the filly who finished just behind him, White Pepper, has since won and been Listed-placed.

Micky Hammond runs two here. Royle Steel wasn't without market support before finishing fifth of nine in a Doncaster junior bumper over 13f in late November, and he's entitled to come on for that initial racecourse experience.

Bon Vitesse twice ran well in 10f handicaps at Pontefract last season on good ground off marks in the low / mid 60s, when noted to have "did well in the circumstances" on the latter occasion. This will be by far the softest ground she has encountered, but being by Fast Company she may handle it well, and she receives 14lb in allowances from the geldings.

Raqisa won a 4-runner 12f handicap on soft ground at Thirsk last summer off a mark of 62 when trained by Jedd O'Keeffe, and makes her hurdles debut here for Amy Murphy after being sold for £11,000 last month. She's a half-sister to Stylish Dancer, who won three times over hurdles at up to three miles.

Good luck DG, seems a few potential angles in, change of scenery, ground and related to a x3 hurdles first.

Bit of a turn up. I doubt if any of them are very good but Tommaso might win a little handicap.

Thanks Anorak, bang on the money again there.

Tommaso plugged on for a well held second, probably appreciating the softer ground this time.

The winner did it well. Watch out for those Fast Companys when they encounter softer ground

Running P/L: +31.7 pts

Good luck DG

George

Surprised you didn't have a selection for the 12.20K. I liked the winner beforehand and thought the King runner was far too short(yes after-timing).

I think the winner is better than its stablemate Knight Salute.

The Sporting Life comment on the winner (pre race)  was "Fairly useful on Flat (stays 1¾m), pulled up soon after start on latest run in June and not seen since (sold from Mark Johnston 18,000 gns in October). Bit to prove on hurdles debut but in good hands."Only one opinion of course but not exactly inspiring.

GL George, no bet for me

DI stands for Dosage Index, the complicated system of assessing the stamina of a horse, based on its breeding. Used and written about in the UK by Nick Mordin as a tool that can identify Derby winners - in the US it's also applied to the Kentucky Derby.

The lower the DI number, the greater the stamina, so in broad terms a 5F sprinter might have a DI of 8.0, a winner of the Ascot Gold Cup a DI of 0.5.

It clearly does work to a degree, but imo, it contains a built in flaw that its supporters never seem to address.

The system depends on sires being allocated points in one or more of five categories, which cover the range of speed from sprimters to middle distance. The categories are called Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional.

Mordin published a list in an appendix of his book Winning Without Thinking. Examples from there include Nijinsky as Classic/Solid, which I read to mean Classic because he won at a mile, Solid because he also won at 12F. Sea Bird is just Solid, presumably because he only won at 12F.

Getting these sires correctly allocated is crucial - the flaw is the simple question of who makes the decisions? Who decided that Nijinsky is Classic/Solid? Mordin never explained this aspect of the system.

WD George

Nice one George.

Well done George. That should be decent form as the other three had all run well.

Thanks.

He's look a nice type physically. They were questioning his attitude on SSR based on his Flat record, but he certainly put it all in at Pontefract, and he looked straightforward today, with his hurdling improving as the race went on and coming right away on the run-in.

Running P/L: +36.2 pts

well done George

Winterwatch, 1pt win @ 12-1, 1.10 Warwick

I've just the one qualifier in this and it's a risky one!

Winterwatch won twice from six starts over middle distances on the Flat when trained by Andrew Balding, and he seemed versatile regarding surface having won on both Polytrack and soft ground, and run well in defeat on good. However, it was noticeable in some of his runs that he can be a keen-goer, and when he made his hurdles debut for Harry Fry at Hereford 19 days ago, he was presumably dropped out in an attempt to get him settled, but having ballooned the first flight and not been much better at the second, he wandered slightly going into the third, jinked and got rid of Sean Bowen.

It takes a leap of faith to support him after that, and it could be the focus will be on getting him settled and hurdling more fluently, so perhaps he'll be one for handicaps further down the line, but a chance is taken given his Flat ability and in the hope that he has learnt from that initial hurdling experience and is more amenable today.

Saint Segal should prove hard to beat after finishing second last time in the Grade One Finale Hurdle at Chepstow, on what was just his second career start.

Jaramillo won over 10f on good to firm and on the AW for Roger Varian, and with an official rating of 85 in that sphere he is the top-rated of these that have a Flat rating.  He was visually impressive when winning on his latest start at Newcastle, but might have been flattered to an extent given the pace collapsed after the leaders had probably gone off hard enough. He cost his new owners 100,000 gns, and presumably the more the ground dries out the better for his chance.

Thunder Ahead, who has a Flat rating of 78, was a 12f winner on the AW for Harry Dunlop, but he had also run well previously on soft ground, so perhaps it was disappointing he didn't fare better on his hurdles debut for Alan King at Wetherby last month when finishing only fifth of the seven runners, having been sent off at just 11-4. He is at least entitled to come on for that initial experience and perhaps today's better ground will suit better.

Hasty Parisian hasn't shaped too badly in a couple of bumpers on contrasting ground and now switches to juvenile hurdling for a yard that has had a good season in this division.