Saligo Bay, 1pt win @ 9-1, 4.10 Newbury

A novices hurdle, so perhaps it won't be easy for Saligo Bay taking on older horses on his hurdling debut, some of whom have experience, but a chance is taken on his first start for Gary Moore.

He showed a fair level of form for Roger Charlton, which included a win in a 12f Newbury handicap from Skycutter (who has won a couple of juvenile hurdles) and Flyin' Solo, who both subsequently ran well in the November Handicap. Saligo Bay didn't maintain his progress in his last couple of Flat starts, but he didn't get a clear run over 14f at Catterick and then perhaps the ground was softer than ideal at Yarmouth, which is a slight concern today.

Gary Moore also runs Make My Day, who's officially rated 94 on the Flat and who belatedly makes his stable debut after being bought out of Ralph Beckett's yard for 75,000 gns in October 2020. He's currently the shorter of the pair in the betting and it will be interesting to see how they go in the market closer to the off.

Of the others, perhaps the most intriguing is the 93-rated off the Flat, King Ottakar, who debuts for Nicky Henderson here and holds an entry in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Romulan Prince, 1pt EW @ 80-1, 1.00 Market Rasen

I have three qualifiers in this: Glen Again, Fae The Port and Romulan Prince.

I'm going to give a speculative vote to Romulan Prince, who hasn't been running too badly, albeit at a lowly level, round Southwell (AW) of late, and the way he stuck to his task last time over 12f could suggest he's not short of stamina for this switch of code, and he's a full brother to Just Once, a dual winner over hurdles at around three miles.

His five runs on turf when trained by Richard Hughes weren't up to much, but three of them came when qualifying for a mark. The potentially testing surface today is an unknown, but he at least comes here fit from the Flat and there is encouragement in his pedigree for this switch of code.

I selected Fae The Port when he made his debut over hurdles at Doncaster ten days ago when he didn't help himself by doing too much in front under his 10lb claimer. He obviously could do with settling better and today's ground is likely to test his stamina further.

Glen Again was a winner of a 4-runner soft ground handicap at Nottingham in May last year when trained by Mark Johnston, and he ran well in a couple of starts after before his form tailed off in two further starts.  He made his debut for Ian Williams in late October over 13.5f on heavy ground when finishing only 6th of the ten runners. He's had a further four months since in his new surroundings and obviously has to be respected given his peak Flat form and official rating of 83.

Fleurman is the highest rated of these on the Flat and he made a satisfactory start over hurdles at Wetherby last month when finishing third of three finishers behind a couple who are now officially rated around the mid-120s. He was a 12 and 14f winner on the level for Ralph Beckett on good to soft at Salisbury, so he has the credentials for this game and he's entitled to improve for that initial hurdling experience.

Alazwar is trained by Archie Watson but has yet to run on the Flat having had three runs in bumpers. He won the first of them over 13.5f at Huntingdon on good ground and then was third of nine under a penalty when sent off odds-on over the same C/D. His latest start came in a Listed race at Cheltenham when finishing only mid-div on soft ground.

Krypton Gold is only rated 106 after four hurdle starts but at least his fitness and experience may help in the conditions.

Lion Face has been bought out of Roger Charlton's yard for 50,000 gns having a couple on the Flat (12f good & 2m AW), and it will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting on his first start for Laura Mongan.

Glen Again now a NR, so down to 7 runners and two places. 15p Rule 4.

Interesting race,George,make it between,
Alazwar,Archie Watson,stable inform and had a recent jumps winner with Staghorn
Lion Face,L.Morgan running at almost 50% win ratio and
Krypton Gold,stable good record at course and the winners is,
Alazwar

I have backed Krypton Gold e/w and hope Stuart Edmunds has a good day!

Backed

Impulsive One 1.50K
Iceo 3.00K

Well done George. I didn't have a bet on the race but did think Greystone a place was a value bet. I am not yet convinced that the 4yos are capable of competing with their elders apart from in handicaps. Iceo ran on a bit but was totally outclassed by the first three and they are not particularly good horses.

Hi George,

I'd be surprised now if Iroko was placed in an ordinary race, as I'm sure they'll want to retain his novice status for next season unless he can land a big prize. The 2m 4f novice hurdle on National day might still tempt them, as that's £100k and 4-y-olds get a useful 10lb weight for age allowance. And of course, the trainer's father is the chairman of Aintree!

Here's an interview with Oliver Greenall from before the Finale Hurdle when he was already talking about a novice campaign next season, but the fact they've run him again since could suggest that they're thinking about Aintree.

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2021/December/22/iroko-seeking-grade-one-gold-on-british-bow-at-chepstow

Hi ali1959,

Bell Ex One is one I've followed and selected on the thread previously, but I wasn't aware until your post that he had joined Paul Nicholls' yard. There certainly appeared to be room for improvement in his hurdling and if he thrives for the change of scenery there is scope to progress, and physically he looks like he's got the size for this game.

As for his mark of 130, a horse he gave weight and a beating to called Calvados has since been placed in a Listed race and then just been touched off in a handicap off a mark of 118, though not sure it was the deepest of handicaps that one, and the other horse he beat last time, Sea Sessions, won the aforementioned Listed race and was then just touched off under a penalty in another one.

I wonder why he hasn't been seen since October, and his novicey hurdling could be a concern pitched into a race of this nature on his return from a break, but if he turns up, I'd say 20-1 looks a fair price and the stable switch could see his odds shorten.

Good luck.

Britzka, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.50 Cheltenham (6 PLACES)
Bell Ex One, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.50 Cheltenham (6 PLACES)

I have four qualifiers in this: Britzka, Bell Ex One, White Pepper and Skycutter.

With drying ground probably not ideal for White Pepper and a concern about whether Skycutter will settle well enough to see this out, I'll take a chance on the first two named.

Britza is one of five running for the Elliott stable and he's not the most obvious on jockey bookings. He was
a comfortable winner on his hurdles debut at Fairyhouse (yielding to soft) in December in admittedly what probably wasn't the strongest of 3YO hurdles, and then he wasn't disgraced behind Fil Dor on his next start in a Grade 2 on soft ground. Better might have been expected last time at Fairyhouse when sent off 11-8 fav and finishing behind three of today's rivals, when reported by his jockey to have been "flat out all the way".

Britzka has been given a two month break since during which he has undergone wind surgery. He wears first time blinkers today and his Flat form would suggest that better ground may suit.

Bell Ex One makes his debut here for new connections following a £110,000 sale. He still looks open to improvement over hurdles and it will be interesting to see which way he goes for the stable switch. Paul Nicholls has opted to apply first time blinkers, which hopefully will sharpen Bell Ex One's hurdling up.

Good luck sageform.

Of the others, at the prices, I wonder if Forever William might be staying on for a place when most have cried enough.

GL DG

I'm confused, thought it was sageform who liked the Skeleton / Gredley combo ?

Good shout George -thought Bell might just do it .

Doctor Parnassus, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 1.30 Cheltenham (4 PLACES)

I've two qualifiers in the Triumph, Doctor Parnassus and Pied Piper.

I'll take a chance on Doctor Parnassus at the prices with four places on offer with a couple of the main firms. This is obviously a much stiffer task than he's faced in winning his two hurdle races so far, but he's looked the part and it remains to be seen where his limitations lie in this sphere.

Good luck sageform

Morning Anorak,

Thanks for the analysis. There appears to be plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so this stiffer test should suit.

The time wasn't too bad (or at least the winner's wasn't) and I think Doctor Parnassus may want softer ground than he got there. He was in contention for a place between the last two flights but was readily left behind where it mattered.

Running P/L: +20.2 pts

I think it's an incredible achievement to get a profit in this category when (a) a lot of runners are running for the first time and (b) you never know how much a horse than ran down the field will come on the next time out . Gavin winning at 33/1 / 47bsp made the difference between a loss and a profit . If you look at Hugh Taylors results, it's often the very few  long price winners (albeit that if he claims a 33/1 winner , it is usually around 16/1 sp) that make the difference. Stating the obvious but noone should be put off by the price if they have a good enough reason to back it.

Manoleeds, it's a relatively small pool of horses in the juvenile hurdle division anyway, and the percentage of them that I have a Flat 'notebook' run for will be a small percentage of a small percentage, and I'm wholly dependent that the right sort (eg have the stamina) are the ones that switch code. So all things considered these juvenile hurdler threads should be doomed to be failure!

Well done with Knight Salute, DG.