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This Plaice Is Filthy Too!
This Plaice Is Filthy Too!
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Morning all think the 4/1 Fast Medicine 2-20 Catterick well worth snaffling.......tight lines..
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Morning Skip - struggling with that race here (14:20) - I wanted to play it last night (oppose the fav with something EW) - but I thought Muhalhel was probably just about my preferred play to be honest - then all the money today is for Fast Medicine. I can't quite have the race as 2-bet each way (not really filthy enough) so while I'm stuck in two minds, all the 4/1 (FM) is long gone. Jury still out but if I'm undecided that should be enough to tell me it's a no bet for me really. The market is actually shaping like it's being manipulated by someone that knows there is a NR - we'll see!
Just that one Flat race and the 13:00 Ludlow (NH and dead-8 runners) of any real interest. Back later if things seem any clearer.GL. |
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Good morning chaps..1n the 2.20 race have played the haggas hoss and the O'Meara one ew...PCH form does not fill me with confidence and may try a cheeky plaice lay on fast Medicine...Songo in the first looks like an ew no brainer for me...anywho best of luck one and all.
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Morning all.......totally agree Skip...Fast Medicine e/w or place looks a very solid bet. I think it`s form is slightly better than the Haggis horse, and it should come on for the Newmarket race. Haggis`s should also improve and the stable is also going well, and we are all guessing as to how the fav has developed over the winter? Mr Varian would not be taking it to Catterick if it was one of his better ones imo. I wanted to agree with you Kenny regarding Songo, but I would not like to be riding it..would you ? I don`t think it`s jumped a hurdle properly yet,so if it is ever going to do anything over hurdles, maybe today is it`s chance..but no guarantee about that,as it`s looked as if it hates the game? But good luck anyway.
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Hi Kenny (and all)!
I think I agree with you about the 14:20 (Muhalhel) but I don't like a Haggas drifter one little bit! - FTO as a 2YO he ran in that Newbury novice stakes that was an absolute skinner (the 1-2-3 was 125/1, 33/1 & 50/1) - it was actually one of those really frustrating races where the odds on jolly (Mithras!) ran a bit of a shocker at 4/6 in 4th  but the filthy EW selection (Aerion Power at 3/1) ran even worse  , finishing a head behind Mithras in 5th! - I remember the race really well for obvious reasons (I lost a good few quid on Aerion Power EW). Muhalhel was an unraced and unfancied 20/1 poke that day and ran poorly (but it was FTO and was later found to have been struck into) - he ran well enough at Chelmsford 2 weeks ago. I think I feel the same as you about the PCH horse too (although the support is a worry!). So at the prices Muhalhel is becoming a real tempter - 11/2 now and it's already bigger than that (for tuppence-ha'penny) in the tumbleweed EW market on here - which is a worry!. But I can't have a haggas drifter and that is stopping me from committing to a single confident EW selection in the race and I don't think it's a race for an EW-Two bet - so reluctantly I will have to leave the race alone. Agree with 37+73 about Songo though (13:00 Ludlow) - purely on the numbers/maths/shape it looks a total no-brainer - but I've got the same reservations as him about the actual horse - so I'm happy enough to swerve it as a thread bet with my "get out of jail free card" on the grounds that it's a NH race! In summary - Loads of words - still no thread bets - but I'm a firm believer that sometimes the bets you don't have are the best ones. GL all. |
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The Songo race (13:00) really is just too much for my tiny brain to contemplate - the maths says EW banker (for the plaice) for the whole of the rest of the days racing - my head says place lay him! - but I can't bring myself to watch a race in the hope that he jumps like a crab and something "untoward" happens to him.
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Songo ffs
 ..I'll get my coat. |
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My head was correct - the maths was wrong - and horse unharmed which is the main thing.
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Kenny - I did try (mildly) to put you off (as did 37+73) - but it was a hard one to swerve purely on the numbers - he actually jumped better than his previous races too! |
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14:20 Catterick result no good to anybody except fav backers - but not much damage done to EW players though - and Fast Medicine ran well.
The Haggas runner (Muhalhel) drifted more than Gaze at a school reunion - any EW backers have got to be pretty happy with the place under the circumstances imo. |
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Nothing doing again today on this line of betting for me.
It's been painfully slow so far - but the bets are either there or they're not - forcing them is pointless. Hopefully some better shaped races when the flat gets going properly. Running Thread Bet Total P&L: + 7.15 Still just the 3 filthy each-way thread bets so far and not even had a bet on a turf race yet: 06th April - 17:00 Chelmsford: Buxted Too - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 10/3 = + 4.00 07th April - 14:00 Lingfield: Lost Eden - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 2/1 (backed EW at average 3.625) = + 3.15 15th April - 19:25 Newcastle: Baby Alya - EW - Half-Steak - took 5/1 - 3rd at ISP 5/1 = + 0.00. |
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I have got nothing for this thread again today.
The 13:05 Doncaster and 13:55 Cork were worth a second look - but I couldn't come up with an EW selection that I would be 100% confident will achieve a place - and that is the acid test imo A bit disappointing - 7 meetings and 53 races - yet the best shaped race for EW filth is probably a Novices' Hunters' Chase! - and of course (as always) all of the NH Stakes races in Ireland (Kilbeggan) will probably have a "nice shape". GL if you play - but there will be much better days ahead for this particular type of betting imo. |
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Morning think there is a REALLY interesting interest one in the Hunter chase at Chepstow .......Danny Park... would of finished a respectable fourth in a decent novice hurdle at Hereford a couple of months ago but for last flight carnage ....well held off stiff handicap mark next run this is much easier ....and fancy him strongly to beat either the second and third fav ....25"s now still most fair....
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Hi Skip - that does seem a fair shout at that price.
I know that assumption is the mother of all feck-ups (especially in Horseracing) - but it doesn't seem too unreasonable to think the runners rated in the 60's & 70's  would have no place being at the business end of the race. So the race for the plaices does look to concern maybe just 4 of them, which does make Danny Park interesting in the 3TBP/4TBP markets. The trouble is - you appear to have crashed the price! and I just can't get (properly) involved in a Hunter Chase - GL mate - will watch with interest if I'm still about. |
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It didn't run any sort of a race Skip - but then again neither did the 2/5 jolly. Those races really aren't for me (Novice Hunter Chases) - I see one of the 68 rated horses ran a blinder, briefly looked the winner at BFSP of 500+ and snatched a place
At a quick glance - Saturday looks just as grim as today for EW filth. |
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Another day with nothing doing for me, on this particular betting front.
I was mildly tempted by Lexington Knight (17:20 Doncaster) but he is currently a short enough price in the context of how many potential "lurkers" are in that race (imo). |
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Lexington Knight 5-20 Don only bet for me today...
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I can't see anything other than Lexington Knight. Market shape looks ok 10/11, 5/2, 9/1, 14s bar at the min. Trading on here at 1.28 for a plaice so the maths seem to fit. It's not a screamer mind.
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All this racing and limited (if any) opportunities...awful stuff...roll on next week
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3.10 Wet obviously stands out today. 2/9, 4/1, 20s bar. Miquelon is around 1/4 on here for a plaice but youv'e gotta take a lot on trust with the horse if backing it which I probably will.
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Morning all,
Friend of the old thread Loving Dream runs in the 14:10 Wetherby - he drifted most alarmingly on the BF EW market before winning comfortably at a massive 11/2 ISP last time out - but sentimentality has no place in betting (imo) and the race today looks very trappy by comparison. So all I have is the very obvious Miquelon (15:10 Wetherby). Hollie versus Tom! - Solely on the betting shape/maths it appears to be a "classic" filthy EW race, so it should possibly be the first 2 pointer - but there is plenty to be cautious about and he looks much more like a place banker (the foundation for some speculative EW doubles) than he does a win prospect. Formerly trained by Fabre (owned by Abdullah) he's returning from 18 months off which has to be a concern, he has been gelded and hasn't been with the new trainer for more than 10 minutes! - So it's more in hope than expectation - but if I don't play a flat race with that shape/structure, there isn't much point in doing the thread. Thread bet: 15:10 Wetherby: Miquelon - EW - Single Stake - taken the (generally available) 4/1 GL if you play today. |
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I have to admit, I wasn't expecting that level of market support for Miquelon (returned at just 15/8 ISP), I can only assume it was partly because the fav (Ametist) was so weak in the betting. I got excited (very briefly) over a furlong out when Miquelon traded at 1.4x in running and Ametist briefly traded at 8.00+ but the fav won very comfortably in the end. Nice to see Loving Dreams (14:10) ran a big race, the race was way too "lurky" for me but he was the only one to give the fav a race - and he returned a very handsome BF Place SP of 2.46.
Todays Sole Filthy Each-Way Thread Bet: 15:10 Wetherby: Miquelon - EW - Single Stake - took 4/1 (generally available) early price - 2nd at 15/8 ISP = -0.20 Daily Thread Bet Total P&L: - 0.20 Running Thread Bet Total P&L: + 6.95 |
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Finally had a bet on the turf! - My Filthy Each Way thread bets to date:
06th April - 17:00 Chelmsford: Buxted Too - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 10/3 = + 4.00 07th April - 14:00 Lingfield: Lost Eden - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 2/1 (backed EW at average 3.625) = + 3.15 15th April - 19:25 Newcastle: Baby Alya - EW - Half-Steak - took 5/1 - 3rd at ISP 5/1 = + 0.00. 25th April - 15:10 Wetherby: Miquelon - EW - Single Stake - took 4/1 - 2nd at 15/8 ISP = -0.20 |
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I have got nothing for this thread today - I'm conscious that my selections on the thread are already getting a bit boring (4 bets in 3 weeks) but I'll take profit over "action" any day of the week. I firmly believe it's the bets that we don't have that make the difference (in the long-term) and the edge that EVERY punter has over the books is that we don't have to bet. It can only get better, with more plays likely as the season builds.
There are a couple of very speculative ones today (imo) but for me they are probably place only bets rather than EW bets - the losing fractions (on the EW placers) soon mount up and unplaced selections are an obvious drain if getting involved in too many "lurky" races; so I'm more than happy to give today a swerve on this particular betting front. Enjoying a welcome break from the 10am Snooker and a beautiful morning in the sunshine. Can't believe there are only 2 more fibresand cards at Southwell (RIP). GL if you play. |
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Finding it pretty unappealing myself ...............3-15 Ayr a possible .....would have a few bob on Water Iris if the market allows , but will probably leave it alone ...i will keep an eye on the 3-05 at Lingfield , and the 5-50 Windsor as well..
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I have got nothing for this thread today.
I liked the look of the 20:15 Ayr (dead-8 runners - of course!) - and would have like to oppose Wootton Creek with Turandot Each Way - but that was at the (fictional) RP tissue prices of 8/11 & 9/4 - back in the real world there looks to be enough potential competition for the places, that it can't really be a play (for me) at the prices that are actually available. The 19:25 Lingfield also looks like an interesting watch. GL if you play today. |
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Have to admit thought you would of gone for Untold Story.... 7-25 Lingfield... Paddies are money back if 2nd 3rd or 4th to the fav..... So had to avail my self of that....
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Ive backed Untold Story Skip . Won well last time and the fav looks short enough. I couldn't hand on heart say the race is filthy on market shape though. The betting gives five of them a chance at the min. That could change though.
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Good morning gents -
Skip, I'd be in too if I thought I could get those terms! GL both. |
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Had to play Blue Lord @ 7/4.................
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Unlucky Skip - one of those races where trying to win the race ended up costing him the place imo.
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indeed
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Well done Jon & Skip - with Untold Story
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A couple of "no brainers" today.. Final Watch 1-50 Wolves and Just Beautiful 5-10 Chelms....
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Agree skip .. can't see past those two
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agree fellas.....but 6 meetings and we still end up at the AW......dreadful dross,small field racing again, far too much of it....I wish I was in Naas as I usually am this week...at least the black food of the gods is always a good bet.
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Morning gents - still smarting a bit here (from a thread P&L perspective) at not allowing you guys to talk me into Untold Story (19:25) yesterday as a thread bet (especially as there was plenty of 3/1 - including EW on here when you both posted it!). Also a bit miffed at myself for not committing to Turandot (20:15) as a thread bet - but she was always just a tad too short.
Agree the 13:50 & 17:10 races look the best of a bad bunch today - but in the big scheme of things I think I'd have to mark them up as "dusty" rather than filthy. I do like Final Watch (13:50) but I've been busy all morning and missed all the fancy prices, leaving me with a price that feels a bit too short (in context of the race). In contrast Just Beautiful (17:10) is drifting - so I will have to play (or not play) as I go along. GL. |
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Also a bit miffed at myself for not committing to Turandot (20:15) as a thread bet
Vincero.......VINCEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
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Exactly Richie - I should have had at least a tenor on it!
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I was hoping to give you guys a fighting chance and swerve the singles on both these races today. Thought they were both plenty short enough in context of the races. But now had a dabble on the first one at minimum stakes EW
13:50 Wolv: Final Watch - Each Way - Half Steak - at 3.75 |