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This Plaice Is Filthy Too!
This Plaice Is Filthy Too!
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Replies: 335
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The 5.45 is starting to draw me in. Down to 11 runners with 365 having eight of them at 25/1 plus. The fourth fav is currently trading on here at 50. I'll have a dart ew on Isola Rossa at 11/4.
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I have looked at this race in detail also Jon........I wouldn`t be surprised if any of the 3 won.....so hoping 1 drifts to a e/w price
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I mean 1 as in any of the 3 !!
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certainly looking like yours atm
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I am with you e/w now Jon
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a Plaice is a PLAICE is a PLAICE !!!!! small loss on race
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Yep no damage done there 37. 3.45 was grim mind.
Today i'm looking at the 7.25 Newcastle. Dead 8 11/10, 5/2, 7/2 14s bar. If I can get anything like 7/2 Baby Alya i'll back it on here. 5.25 Newcastle might be one to keep an eye on. Dead 8 again. |
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I'm starting to think I have tied myself up a little here (in terms of thread bets) with the staking that I originally proposed - I initially proposed Two Stakes EW for the pure filthy races & One Stake EW for the more speculative stuff.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I'm pleased to have had two winners from only two thread bets - but they were pretty filthy races, especially in the context of what has followed since - and (were it not such early days) they should probably both have been double stakes. There's nothing I can do about that now - but having only put them up as One Stake EW - it leaves me struggling to play with the profit by putting up a selection (to the same One Stake EW) in races such as todays (17:25 & 19:25) - which to me, just aren't in the same league and seem pretty speculative (mildly dusty) by comparison. No rush to play today with many hours until off-time (and both races the dead-8 runners) - not convinced I will play them anyway - but moving forwards I'm going to make the minimum bet a Half-Stake EW, rising in Half-Stake increments to a maximum of Two-Stakes EW. I'd be more comfortable playing more often at a Half-Steak in the more speculative races, plus it's probably more appropriate for the odd EW Two-Bet and doubles/multis (if the cards permit). GL. |
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I am swerving the 17:25 Newcastle - Skytree (at 4/1 now!) looks the most obvious one EW from the very limited evidence available - she probably is an EW bet to nothing - but I don't ever much like opposing Gosden runners and coupled with all the other unknowns, the race is just a bit too "lurky" for me. GL if you play.
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That was a strange race (17:25) - the "lurker radar" saves me a few shekels though.
I have a similar feeling about the 19:25 Newcastle to be honest but the "maths" is a little more clear cut and at least every single runner isn't a potential lurker! The Gosden fav (Unforgotten) probably hacks up - but he's been beaten twice already at very short prices, is gelded already and tries some blinkers. Bullace (16:45 Newmkt) just paid My Swallow a big compliment. Baby Alya looks much better as a place prospect than she does as a winner against some interesting males - so she's hardly compelling - but the 5/1 has sucked me for minimum stakes because the plaice element (Evens) seems very fair and she finished really impressively FTO to win over course and distance from what looked the most unlikely of positions. 19:25 Newcastle; Baby Alya - Half-Steak Each Way (5/1). GL. |
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I think Baby Alya has to be the straight bat bet to nothing....all 3 have good potential, but the advantage of having ran, and won on the track is a big plus imo.As you say TM, the fav has been beaten twice (maybe by a nice one last time?) and Stoute`s has had wind surgery so maybe not fully wound up (as he does like to take his time with them)..although his runners seem more forward this year than most.
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Flip flopping favourites! - The Gosden horse (unforgotten) drifting badly - he has played up and/or misbehaved before each of his first two races (presumably hence the gelding) and been beaten at 1.12 and 1.23 in-running (presumably hence the blinkers). Not a fan of the Stoute man but he has been on fire this year so far. The BF market hates Baby Alya
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yep TM....tells you it wasn`t 100% today......but it was a race that it was still good enough to be an easy relaxing PLAICE to nothing
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Race goes exactly as per the original tissue prices
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Yeah - turns out it would have been a nice plaice banker as a foundation for some doubles or multis (easy to say after the race) - but I couldn't have done it as that myself anyway. Plus (as always!) the dreaded dead-8.
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Another slow day for filthy EW races - broke even with the only minimum stakes thread bet (19:25) and dodged a bullet (imo) in the 17:25:
Todays sole Filthy Each Way Thread bet was: 19:25 Newcastle: Baby Alya - EW - Half-Steak at 5/1 - 3rd at ISP 5/1 = + 0.00. Daily Thread Bet Total P&L: 0.00 Running Thread Bet Total P&L: + 7.15 The slow drip fills the bucket and all that - but the washer doesn't seem to be broken just yet! All (my) filthy each-way thread bets so far: 06th April - 17:00 Chelmsford: Buxted Too - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 10/3 = + 4.00 07th April - 14:00 Lingfield: Lost Eden - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 2/1 (backed EW at average 3.625) = + 3.15 15th April - 19:25 Newcastle: Baby Alya - EW - Half-Steak took 5/1 - 3rd at ISP 5/1 = + 0.00. Tomorrow looks poor - maybe just the one race (16:50 Exeter) but it's NH (not a fan) and currently the dead-8 runners. GL. |
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Morning all !!.......think the 1-00 Ayr interesting, as i think Mrs Hyde has the stronger form than the favourite ( my old friend Stepney Causeway ) .......can"t see any of the others getting involved.......Wilderness would interesting in the first at Exeter , but bound to be nons on what will be rattling ground.....
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Morning . I'll have to play the 4.50 Exeter on here with the threat of non runners but there's the price of a bag of chips available at the min so it's wait and see by the look of it. Can't see owt else.
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I'll be out for the day but i've got most of my bet matched ew on here at 4.40 on Wilderness. GL
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Morning all - it's hard to argue against either of those two races but I'm sticking to my Flat Only/No NH rule - so no thread bets for me today. Also the dead-5 and the dead-8 runners make both races a bit vulnerable to the law of the sod! GL.
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Very well done Jon (and Skip) - nice one.
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Morning all !!!!!!!.......All about the 4-40 Thirsk today .........Invincible Swagger looks rock solid , the Lingfield novice he was second in looks really strong form........should be fav imo.......
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Morning Skip - that race/selection (14:40 Thirsk) has some potential but it just looks a bit more "lurky" to me than the three runner race the market is implying.
Saying that though - this thread has already taken one the same pattern as the old thread - where I stick up a likely looking race and a selection followed by all the reasons that I won't be backing it (as an official thread bet) - too many "lurkers", it's NH, etc. You and Jon say you're both playing it anyway and it bolts up at a nice price!  - as "systems" go it's infallible.On that basis - I also won't be playing in the 13:55 Bangor - where Lies About Milan looks the most obvious EW bet to nothing against the title chasing Harry Skelton mount (Interconnected) that has been beaten at short prices on his last two outings. My issue is that if the fav underperforms I think I can make a case (of sorts) for pretty much every other runner hitting the frame/going close at a nice price. So I'm playing my "get out of jail free" card (again) and swerving it on the basis that it's NH and I started the thread for the flat. Apart from that - it's pretty poor horseracing fare (for a Saturday) but I care not - because it's SNOOKER time!  GL whatever you play today. |
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IT IS SNOOKER TIME
 backed Judd as a filthy each way 1.7 to make semis a gift imo.....4.2 in the win......not bad either!!!!.....Backing Just A Whim in the 1-55 Bangor ........maybe with fourth place insurance ....at least being ridden by Tabitha you know she will keep kicking.....!!!! |
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 Skip - ditto! - great minds and all that! - I've actually got quite a strong suspicion that Just A Whim might have been flattered LTO but 33/1 (EW) is surely big enough, so it won't cost very much to pay to find out if she was flattered or not! Trouble is, I fancy about half a dozen of them at the prices! - the 4TBP market could be interesting for a couple of them. GL. |
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Just Invincible Swagger for me today. I'd like to play the 1.55 at Bangor but i'm not sure Lies About Milan is one to trust for a nailed on plaice so i'll swerve it. GL
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I layed Just A Whim at massive odds in the each way market last time. It proved to be a stressful way to win a couple of pints!
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Welcome Brian! - I haven't played that way for many years but I went through a phase - and just reading your post (having watched that race) has sent a shiver down my spine!
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Can`t split Invincible and George in the 4.40 Fellas......form wise, potential wise or Jockey wise !! I think both will be PLAICED and one of them will win it, as I don`t think the others are lurkers of note.
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Horse and Jockey ok but don't like to see that regardless of financial interest.
Just a Whim Each-Way and 3TBP/4TBP backers in clover though (regardless of the fall). Had the winner on me "long list" but that's hardly surprising as I had about 6 of them on me long list! |
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Well done 37 - but you're not getting a "boom" for dutching two 2/1 shouts (especially with two of the three "potential lurkers" not running)
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Not even a TM handshake ?
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Mini-boom and Asda Prosecco imo
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Not filthy but i've taken the 15/8 about Derab in the first at Newbury. Cant see much today.
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Morning Jon - yes, a poor old day for the ew filth - some nice racing at Newbury but still way too much twig-hopping for my liking. I got not nothing for this thread today. Catch up next week.
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Good Morning all.........todays fare looked promising at first glance , but couldn"t much to get me excited , will be backing GERONIMO if prices allow in the 1-52 Hexham ......but thats it really ......
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Morning Skip - it looked a potentially interesting day for filth (last night) and I had about 12 races on my "long list" but they were nearly all National Hunt races anyway
 . I even liked a couple at Limerick for a second glance - but most of them have now evaporated on closer inspection. At Hexham, The 13:52 (Geromino) and 14:22 (Little Actress) if all 5 run, look ok but they are each plenty short enough in the betting and NH. Both of those are very interesting races in terms of the NH champion jockey title though. On the flat - 13:10 Windsor (Stunt) will be too short and it's a "lurky" enough race. The 15:30 Pontefract is a very nice shape but nothing leaps off the page except for the fav! In summary, I've got nothing (for this thread) again today - it looks like a day of snooker and the flat handicap plaice markets. |
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Thought Geromino had it in the bag going over the last skip.
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I have got nothing today for this thread.
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Maybe Desert Gulf fits the bill {or closest to it } in the 7-50 wolves....
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