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05 Apr 21
11:41
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Date Joined:
27 Dec 00
Another thread for fish based puns and Filthy Each Way bets.
Possibly with a few Plaice only bets, Plaice only lays and maybe some Each Way (Plaice focussed) Multiples/Accas if the shops ever open again.
No fixed rules but will likely focus on the Flat (Turf & AW) rather than NH, mostly Stakes races (not Handicaps). The only firm rule is that all bets and stakes (and if possible prices) will be posted before the races and there will be a running tally of the P&L for my bets.
Possibly with a few Plaice only bets, Plaice only lays and maybe some Each Way (Plaice focussed) Multiples/Accas if the shops ever open again.
No fixed rules but will likely focus on the Flat (Turf & AW) rather than NH, mostly Stakes races (not Handicaps). The only firm rule is that all bets and stakes (and if possible prices) will be posted before the races and there will be a running tally of the P&L for my bets.
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Last years thread was started pretty late in the flat season and overall was pretty disappointing - starting off really badly - the low point was about -8.00 before recovering to a peak of about +18.00 and then dropping off a bit to end up on about +12.00. With a full flat season to play with this time around, I would hope to do a good bit better than that.
I struggled a bit last time with striking the right balance between the stone cold filthy races and the slightly more speculative ones. In an ideal world I would stick with the stone cold filth and not play the speculative stuff - but that makes for a pretty boring and inactive thread - so I will try to address that balance on this thread via staking - Single stakes EW for the more speculative races and two stakes EW for the utter filth. |
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Seems like a Brill idea TM. Good luck.
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Thanks Muse! - it looks like this was a bit of a false dawn! -
I ended up swerving a couple of the fairly speculative Each-Way races that I had in mind (prices a bit too short). I quite like the look of the 16:45 Wolverhampton (still paying 3 places in the BF Each-way market) but liquidity will be non-existent until race time and as suspected I have now been summoned for a "chauffeuring job"! - I did inquire as to the Bank Holiday rates of pay - but apparently (unless I wish to lose a test1cle) it is an unpaid role! Hopefully back with some actual EW bets tomorrow or later in the week. |
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That's nice
 - the "chauffeuring" this afternoon has cost me (and the thread) the first winner! - Just realised I didn't actually name the horse 9in the post above - but hopefully it was obvious to anyone that plays the Filthy Each Ways - and I did post it on the old thread!The Management05 Apr 21 12:36Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 4,927 | Blogger: The Management's blog Al I have today with (very vague) confidence is the 16;45 at Wolves (Atiyah) - still 3 places in the bf each way market. Will put it on the other thread if I play it - but not sure I will actually be around at 16:45 today. GL. |
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Morning TM.. Good luck with the thread i'm sure it'll show a decent profit. I'll chip in with a few (sticking to fields of 8-11 runners these days).
Got these on my list today with varying degrees of confidence: Muskateer Three 2.40 Bath 11/2 Cooperation 3.30 Pon 5/1 Barneys Boy 4.00 Pon 7/2 Buxted Too 5.00 Chelm (dead 8) |
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Hi Jon - very good to see you!
I thought (last night) that today might have some potential - but I now have some reservations about all of the "nice shaped" races which initially included the 15:00, 15:30 & 16:00 (all at Pontefract), plus the 17:00 at Chelmsford. 15:00 Pont: King Frankel - I would have wanted 7/4 (the minimum odds I will play EW) but getting that price looks very unlikely - coupled with the trainer having 3 in the race, plus any NR or a stalls refusal would be an EW killer - so on balance it's a swerve. 15:30 Pont: The fav Spycatcher has an official rating of 99! (I'm very sceptical of that) - it looks to be based solely on a very good run in the Acomb (Group 3 at York). Would love to oppose him with something EW against him because he's run about a stone and a half below that rating in his two subsequent runs! My issue is that running way below that to a more realistic rating (maybe mid 80's) would likely still be good enough to win today. The most obvious EW alternative (Cooperation?) looks consistent but a bit moderate/exposed. Probable swerve. 16:00 Pont: Barneys Bay - looks a possibility but not 100% sure about the drop to 6f and the race does look a bit "lurky" 17:00 Chelm: Buxted Too - looks to be well worth considering if all 8 make it to post. I'm probably being a bit overly cautious in the hope of starting off with a winner (having contrived to miss doing so about 4 times now!) - but none of these races fall into the "classic filth" category, so will see how the day shapes up nearer to race times. GL. |
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Agree with EVERYTHING you say ..........those early sprint maidens at Ponte have a habit of throwing up massive priced winners .....leave well alone ...Buxted only bet for me today...
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Mainy trying to arb All the players in the Each Way 10 places market on betfair in the masters this week...most firms going 10 places .......Arbs everywhere!!!!
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Good day fellas.....Hope you are all well ? That`s a lot of work Skip....hopefully for some reward!!!!! Good luck with this new thread TM, as it is always trappy at this time of year, with too much guessing as to fitness, growth, ground etc.....One bet for me today..I think Morlaix 8pm Chelms is still ahead of the handicapper....it was a strong race it won tidily lto
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Not a bad day
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well done fellas
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I wrote a long winded review (Filth of the Day) - but luckily for you lot it vanished into cyberspace when I pressed "post reply"! - and I can't be bothered to rewrite it. The same as the previous thread - I am only going to record my own P&L for thread bets - but a good day all around on the filth.
Todays Filthy Each Way Thread Bet: 17:00 Chelmsford: Buxted Too - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 10/3 = + 4.00 Daily Thread Bet Total: + 4.00 Running Thread Bet Total: + 4.00 Catch up tomorrow. |
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Lost Eden looks a no brainer 200 Linfield. Dead 8 mind.
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Agree Jon. Busy day here between three sessions of snooker (I like these 09:30 starts about as much as the players do!) plus plenty of Plaice Lay action in the Flat Handicaps (but no Handicap talk on this thread please!).
Even the Irish maidens (that I rarely play) where a filthy betting shape is normally compulsory, aren't really very obliging in shape today. So here we go with Groundhog Day and deja vu all over again! - it looks like the only filthy play of the day is (just like yesterday) in an 8 horse race (14:00 at Lingfield: Lost Eden) - and just like yesterday it only looks worthy of a bet imo if all 8 runners look like making it to post. So the usual price dilemma as well - the current 5/2 (that he's drifted to) looks a fairish price for 3 places but you wouldn't want to bet your life (or any money imo) on it 100% being a two horse race if it were to go down to just two places. So (just like yesterday) a very likely bet - but no rush and one to monitor for now imo. Jon - with absolutely everything placed yesterday, I hope you had some sort of EW acc (with all your fancy early prices!) - the fear of NR's (a 5 horse race and an 8 horse race) put me off GL. |
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At risk of prompting a bolter on the way to the start or a stalls refusal (14:00 Lingfield) - I have played Lost Eden (single stake EW) at 5/2 & 11/4 (average 3.625). The market indicates I can't be overly hopeful of the win but the Plaice price (hopefully) makes it a no-brainer on the maths. GL.
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 One for the good guys Jon! I wish they were all as stress free as that. Nicked a few quid trading the plaice market too - Some very strange betting there in the plaice market (on Bard of Brittany). |
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Nice one TM. That was a classic one. There was strange betting on race with Bard of Brittany and Letters of Dawn showing surprising support (I layed both).
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You da man, The Headmaster!
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Whoops!
Sorry, should have read..... You da man, The Management! |
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Yes Brian - Bard of Brittany (admittedly shortened a bit later on) but appeared to be available at 50/1 across the board with all books (1/5 odds 3 places). Lots of ways to play it but basically 9/2 to place with a bonus "free" win bet imo?
Meanwhile they were queuing up on here to back it on here at about 5/2 place only. The trouble is with the dead 8 runners - a late withdrawal and you could end up having bet (what reduces) to 2 places with the books and still have layed it for 3 places on here. Otherwise it looked like the arb of the century! I bottled it a bit (greened out) - and it did nearly place - but out of the frame suited me just fine. |
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Cheers t2r - the old thread did ok in the end but it got off to an horrific start (which held me back more than it should have done) - so it's nice to start with winner, winner this time around.
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Great start to the new thread TM
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Todays Filthy Each Way Thread Bet:
14:00 Lingfield: Lost Eden - EW - One Stake - 1st at ISP 2/1 (backed EW at average 3.625) = + 3.15 Daily Thread Bet Total: + 3.15 Running Thread Bet Total: + 7.15 A long day on many betting fronts and quite a satisfactory day on the Filthy Each Way front. On the greedy side I'm a bit gutted not to have played double stakes on todays race - given that the betting market eventually implied it was a two horse race (Fav went off at 2/5 and ran a bit of a stinker & the selection was backed into 2/1 winning very nicely) - the potential "lurkers" were both friendless - the Channon horse drifted to 22/1 and the KP de Foy runner drifted out to 18/1. But (despite the final prices indicating otherwise) I couldn't hand on heart say it was just a 2 horse race and there was still a small chance of a NR - so single stakes only. On the plus side, although it was single stakes, I bet early enough to get what turned out to be pretty good prices. |
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Cheers Jon - I'm still a bit miffed about missing Saturdays "winner" (greedy s0d me!) but a better start that last time all the same!
Catch up tomorrow. GL. |
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A disappointing day with just the two UK flat cards (both AW). I've had a closer look at a few races but purely based on the shape of the betting:
13:25 Taunton: The betting has a nice shape and Castel Gandolfo probably looks worthy of an EW play if all 8 run and you're into your NH racing - but I'm not! 14:10 Southwell: Kehailaan looks vaguely tempting but is currently a short enough price (imo) in context of a race that involves a fair amount of assumptions or guess work. 17:15 Aintree: The betting has a nice shape (Elle Est Belle being the most obvious looking EW option) but it's a Mares NHF race with any number of unexposed "lurkers" Looks like a day of Snooker and AW handicap plaice laying for me - GL if you do play. |
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Probably just the 1.25 for me. Dead 8 again and youv'e gotta forgive it's run LTO in that jumpers bumper. Minimum stake if I play.
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Two seconds and a winner from the three races considered today - but still happy enough with the decision not to play in any of them.
I thought the early prices (when assessing the races) were plenty short enough and they actually all went off considerably shorter come race time. There will be better opportunities (imo) - although having looked briefly at tomorrows cards - they might not be tomorrow! GL. |
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Good evening TM. I've been trading for small stakes but not much luck tbh. Perhaps a change of direction is needed. If you don't mind I will send you a PM within the next five days to see if you can give me a wee bit of advice in sports iyo which are best to trade on. I know you like the snooker as number one but perhaps trading is not my forte but even in horseracing I've lost count of the amount of horses I've backed to win a few quid only to trade at 1.2 or less and get beat.
Anyways TM I will keep things private at present and will send you a PM shortly. No pressure whatsoever. |
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As suspected last night - There is absolutely nothing whatsoever out there today on the Filthy Each Way front (imo).
 Current snooker (World Champ Qualifiers) a complete waste of time - seen more liquidity at a Saharan AA meeting! |
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Out of 36 races there is not a single horse you think will plaice?
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Maybe you should read my post again Glaze? -
There are plenty horses that I think will place and also plenty that I think might not, so I will be pretty active all day backing and laying in the Place markets - but that doesn't alter the fact that there are no Filthy Each Way races today. |
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Kempton looks the most likely meeting to me ...........RED SQUARE..........fits the bill in the 5-40 .....form of debut been well franked by the winner and third solid each way filth @ 5/2 ..........................tight lines
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I can't see much today. I might have a small ew double on Prontissimo 4.35 and Painless Potter 5.05. Both second favs at around 9/4, 5/2. 5.40 Is now dead 8 and as Skip says Red Square could be the one after watching Lost Eden bolt up the other day. GL.
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Hi Jon & Skip - of all the races & horses suggested on the thread so far, I don't think any of us has had one finish out of the frame yet!
 Agree the 3 maidens at Kempton were all worth a good look and the markets have "matured" since I first looked - but they are all still just that little bit too "lurkey" for me. GL. |
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On shape the 12.30 Chepstow is nice but the second fav has one hell of a lay off to overcome. 1.15 Newcastle less obvious but fantastic rock could be the one there. 6.15 at Wolves looks a possible as well but i'm struggling to split the second and third in.
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Morning Jon - feeling exactly the same here! - On the face of it a much more interesting day than yesterday (which isn't difficult!) - but closer inspection and I have some reservations about most of the "stand out" filthy races!
12:30 Chepstow: Lhomme Presse - total no-brainer purely on the betting shape & maths but it's NH, hasn't run for 2 years and dead 8 runners. 13:15 Newcastle: Fantastic Rock - looks obvious enough and gets 6lbs from the 3 previous winners - but it's NH, plus I wouldn't consider it a 2 horse race by any means. 16:25 Lingfield: Ajrad - looked a likely play when there were 8 runners - only playable (EW) on BF now. 18:15 Wolves: The more I look the harder it seems to oppose the fav with one confident selection - difficult to chose between Divine Magic & Prioritise and with others to consider too - it doesn't look the kind of race for an ew 2-bet (imo) Might have fancied some speculative ew multis or an acc but one race is already down to 7 runners and 2 others are 8 runners - all a bit off putting coupled with the reservations above. I will probably play some or all of them but I have enough reservations to say no thread bets (yet) today imo GL. |
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The plaices in the 12:30 Chepstow are soooooo over-broke that it hurts to look at them! - if only you could get on any worthwhile ew stakes with the books - and if only there was a 100% guarantee that 8 run!
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had to back Lhomme Presse...................just on the figures .......can"t say its a horse i would normally back.........
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Fair play Skip - at the prices it seems so rude not to play - the same betting in a different race (preferably flat!) and (at 4/1) it would normally be my banker in (plaice focussed) EW doubles (shops) with every other race I intend to play today! - The maths says that is still the play if you can do it on-line - but I haven't done it.
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