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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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Morning all.
So far i'm on Joshua Web 2/1 12.00 Nav Le Musigny 11/2 2.45 Nav. I've got an eye on : Court Land 1.07 FL Mont Segur 4.00 San Lord of Kerak 1.50 San (Dead 8) |
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Morning Skip and all - I thought today looked a potentially interesting when glancing through it last night.
I have now looked at the 12:00, 13:07, 13:50, 14:00, 14:45, 16:00 & 16:10. Of those races, I thought the 12:00 and 14:45 maybe had the most potential but in the big scheme of things, I think there will be more clear cut opportunities that I feel more strongly about on other days. I will watch all of these races with interest but I don't think I will bother with any thread bets today. GL Skip and all. |
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Well done Jon & Skip. (12:00: Joshua Web)
A good race that and a pleasing result to start the day for both of you. |
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Had a small ew bet on Court Land at 11/2 1.07 FL.
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Not filth but now on Lord of Kerak ew to small stakes 1.50 San
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Another one for Skip (13:50: Adrimel) - but nobody ha had a selection out of the frame yet. WD.
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yes he was 9/4 this morning.....
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Yeah - well done on the price Skip - I think it was 11/4 across the board when I was looking at the race last night (but I think Wargrave was still a runner at that point, so the race/betting had a slightly different shape - I actually thought 11/4 might be a bit short! Doh!
 ).Pre Betfair I used to think I could make a good tissue myself (without looking at RP prices first) - but these days if I'm honest, I would be lost without checking BF first. |
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Well I'm on Mount Segur ew to half stake at 7/2 in the 4.00. If it's out of the frame i'm a grand total of £1.90 down for the day but hey ho there's always tomorrow.
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Ah the joys of fourth plaice. A more or less break even day.
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No harm done in the big scheme of things Jon. I think if I had done everything on my "mildly dusty" long-list (from last night) including a couple of two-bets, I would have broken even. - But I'm too old and lazy for the stress and effort involved in getting on them all. Catch you tomorrow. GL.
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The last 2 selections yesterday were most annoying and spoiled what should of been a very good day........Chepstow the plaice to go today
Smurphy Enki"s form is ultra strong in the first (12-30)....just hoping everyone piles into the Nicholls horse and he drifts to a backable price ......and in the 3-45 Oscar Elite is an obvious selection Tizzard often running his better novices at this track and his latest point win working out well , i will be surprised if he doesnt go really well........ |
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Agree on both Skip. Like you i'd need a drift on the first.
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Morning/Afternoon Guys - I agree the 12:30 looks like a two horse race but can't see either of them going each-wayable. Worth a check though.
I don't like the 15:45 too much - I would normally look to oppose anything in a maiden race at shortish odds-on after a year off on Heavy ground - but I'm struggling to decide what to oppose it with EW. Nothing leaps of the page and I can't persuade myself with any confidence that any of the opposition looks 100% nailed on for a Plaice. Will cheer yours on. GL. |
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12:50 goes to the filthsters - but purely on market/betting shape.
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not filth,,,but a PLAICE is a PLAICE (25% ish return 1st 3)......could be KIPPERS for tea and smoked SALMON for breakfast, unfortunately not served by Molly Ringwall... but that`s life..... it`s Breakfast CHUB 5.50 Dundalk for me.....race should be run to suit, so I can`t see it not being in the 1st 3 if indeed not winning it...25% return...better than in a bank !!!!!!
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Very well done Skip and Jon!! (13;45 Oscar Elite). That Skated home.
It went proper filthy on betting shape towards the off-time in the end. |
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Well done Skip/Jon....BRILL....just watched a reCOD-LING of the 3.45....nice horse SKATEd in
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Cheers TM and 37. Its been a good day, one bet one winner, but it would have been even better if I hadn't fallen asleep on that 12.50. No idea how that passed me by !!
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Hi Jon - the 12:50 was another "late developer" - it looked just very mildly dusty to start with - but as the betting developed, it just got more and more filthy looking. I struggle to commit to FTO'ers or first attempt at a new code anyway, so again, I just sat and watched it go filthy before my eyes without acting on it!
Same as the race you played in (the 15:45). I wasn't convinced about committing two stakes (one stake EW) to that race at all, but it went proper filthy as the market matured! I just sat and watched! - Catch you tomorrow. GL. |
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I didn`t like the drift in the win market from 2.5 to 3.2... but the PLAICE held up.....There is always tomorROE !!!!!!
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You are a Dab hand at the fish punstering 37+73 - but I couldn't sea anything filthy about that race (apart from the dead eight runners). Keep your rod stiff
 and your bait dry - there will be better opportunities to batter the books imo. GL. |
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The first at Huntingdon was the only likely qualifying race today , but Mr Henderson has decided to ruin it ....(we can"t competitive racing can we ).........small fry attitude !!!.......might have a go at a couple of the 100/1 shots in the each way market on here ..
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12.15 Hunt is dead 8 now. 1/4, 9/2 10s bar.
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Morning all - not a great day for filthsters imo
12:15 Huntingdon: I agree with Skip that the race looked a better filthy proposition last night prior to the NR's. Also think it does have a slight look and feel of one of those races where the 1/5 fav bolts up and two rags fill the frame. However, ignoring the maths caused me to swerve a couple of decent priced winners yesterday, so I think Sinndarella has to be the filthy EW selection. I've taken bits and pieces at 5/1 with various books to the total of a half-stake EW and in addition the whole fiver currently matched at 6.6 in the EW market on here is mine  Whooo Hooo! - I have seen more liquidity at an AA meeting in the desert! 12:37 Hereford: I'm not 100% convinced this is just a two horse race - but might be interested if either of the front two were to drift to an EW price in the face of strong support for the other one. (This seems quite unlikely at the moment). |
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I should have listened to my inner self and left this race well alone after the NR's!
Todays sole Filthy EW thread bet: 12:15: Huntingdon: Sinndarella - EW - Half Steaks- 5th at 9/2 ISP (Backed EW at average of 5/1) = - 1.00 I played relatively early for me (once 5/1 was available across the board) but it was telling (imo) that in the short time between placing my bets and the off-time, Sinnderella went from 1.4x out to 1.70 in the Place Only market. So my 9/2 ISP selection was sent of at 1.70 in the place market, while the horse that actually finished second at almost double the win price (ISP of 9/1) was sent off at just 1.63 for the Place only. I totally understand the factors at play that sometimes skew relationships between the different win and the place prices in filthy races - but I think it's fair to say the writing was on the wall before the tape went up in this race (imo). Half Steak only - so limited damage. Catch up tomorrow. GL. Daily Thread Bet Total: - 1.00 Running Thread Bet Total: + 17.18 GL all. |
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^^ reading that back, it sounds like sour grapes. It's not. To explain:
In the filthy races when you bet EW, you are typically placing one pretty BAD value bet (in the win market) and hopefully one EXTREMELY GOOD value bet (in the place market). Sometimes (if you get the prices right), you can have an ok value bet (win) and a great one (place) and if you're very clever/lucky, very occasionally you strike an EW bet (at a price) where both the win and the place element are cracking value. It's that "trade off", which I got horribly wrong today (imo),that I was trying to explain (in my post above): That I was happy to take the very poor value 5/1 (win) about a horse that was trading at 10/1 (on here) to win - because by accepting the poor value 5/1 to win, I was also getting Evens (for the place element of my EW bet) about a horse trading at 1.40. One very bad value bet, happily placed because it came in partnership with what I thought might be great value bet (that was much more likely to come in). Once it drifted to 1.70 the place - I was left with one really terrible value bet (the win at 5/1) and one ok (ish) value bet (on the place) at Evens. The balance or "trade off" was no longer attractive imo. Hope that's not too patronising but I wanted to explain the logic at some point in case any "lurkers" were looking in and think this is all madness! I would imagine any sensible lurkers probably stopped reading all the carp I write a long time ago and are just backing Skip & Jon's selections anyway! GL. |
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Over 17 points profit isn't carp TM. Being selective might miss a few winners but it also dodges a fair few bullets. We all do it a bit differently but you can't argue with 17 points to the good. Keep up the good work.
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Thanks Jon - I really appreciate that.
I don't usually complain that there are too many possible races - but today is awash with "dusty" ones imo. At the moment I think I will probably play (and possibly even two-bet) both the 16:11 Exeter and the 16:35 Kempton. I have (i think!) ruled out playing in the 12:35, 13:10, 16:05. Still considering the 13:20, 15:20, 15:25, 17:05 and especially the 15:50 Dundalk (Can't decide if Zozimus is a rogue or not!). I think I will have to play as I go today. |
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Jon is correct TM...we all do it a bit differently...and for different reasons....but all with the same aim...and a + is a + in anyone`s book.I can`t help thinking that in the 1.20 Bangor the fav is not a natural chaser..hence the NA intro and now Bangor!!! There is pace in the race (Zoutiose) so any faults will be found....value to be had in this race my humble opinion....
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Hi 37 - I I liked that race too - but I struggle to part with two stakes (one EW) in Novice Chases and usually the lack of runners saves me from any difficult decisions! It does look a play I suppose.GL.
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Thanks....and as Jon said...keep up the good work and keep your nose in front....that`s all you need
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Swerved the 13:10 - wanted oppose the fav with something EW with the dead eight runners - but struggling to narrow it down and the fact that I really can't decide - indicates no bet.
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I'm on Elusive Belle ew (1.20) at 3.75 ish on here. Just on shape/numbers.
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13:20 Bangor: Elusive Belle - EW - Half Steak at 11/4 - Now on it.
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Ah well
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Well done 37 - you got that right (fav).
But a timely reminder (early season) for me as to why I don't like playing for 2 steaks in Novice Chases regardless of betting/shape. Hopefully they revert to the norm (only 3 or 4 runners) to save me making any decisions on them in future! |
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yep a winning start...but to be fair I couldn`t choose which one would beast it (if any)...so laid it instead....can`t see it reaching it`s hurdles form over the big ones
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Swerved the 15:20 - sorry for late post - lost track of time.
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Horse Racing / 15:20 Dundalk / Each Way
Let Me Pass Back 216453696625 11-Nov-20 15:19 6.4 Horse Racing / 15:20 Dundalk / Each Way My Minervina Back 216453368249 11-Nov-20 15:15 7 Horse Racing / 15:20 Dundalk / Each Way My Minervina Back 216453108109 11-Nov-20 15:12 6 Horse Racing / 15:20 Dundalk / Each Way My Minervina Back 216452870778 11-Nov-20 15:10 7.4 I didn't really swerve it! - Sorry but my P&L today needed a feckin winner more badly that the threads P&L! |