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George's Juvenile Hurdler + / - Thread
George's Juvenile Hurdler + / - Thread
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Replies: 442
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George,
Well I can tell you I was asked for an assessment of Mick Pastor after his win, but after I gave a positive report, that person was told by connections 'negotiation starts at 240,000 euros, we won't take less'. And the person that asked me was NOT J P McManus! |
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Deplasterer, I wouldn't want to be too dismissive of Nordano, nor Repetitio, who wasn't too far behind him at Chepstow, and both appear to have EW chances. Good luck.
Interesting info, Anorak, I guess they could have doubled the asking price after Nirvana Du Berlais went and won the Grade One! |
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Great call again George and we'll backed. Wd.
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Wd GB
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wd G,Mick Pastor disappointing there....
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Wow, never in any real doubt. Harry gave him a good breather at the top of the hill but once they got to the second last, the rest were paddling.
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Cheers all.
The market got it right regarding the ex-French pair - the French form of Botox Has didn't look as good as Mick Pastor's (who was a standout in the paddock according to Jonathan Neesom), but the money was right in terms of who would come out on top today. Maybe they've already pencilled in the Fred Winter for Mick Pastor?  |
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WD George - Nicholls should be embarrassed by that, even if the owner isn't.
The time was faster than any of the 2M hurdles at the October meeting, including the class 2 race won by Quel Destin, so the ground plainly isn't that bad. |
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Anorak, the time was around 16.5 seconds outside standard, so far from desperate.
The late drift was alarming, particularly given the paddock comments, will watch with interest next time. |
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wd george
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Ta chavvers
There are two juvenile hurdles tomorrow, one at Fontwell and one at Punchestown Running P/L: + 181.6 |
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Well done George
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See your notebook just went in at Punchy
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Cheers Matty & Mad'
1.30 Fontwell 1pt win Manucci @ 9-1 1pt win Isle Of Wolves 22-1 I have two qualifiers, Manucci and Isle Of Wolves. I think on the forecast ground, perhaps Manucci is the more interesting of the pair. He caught my eye at Epsom (heavy, 10f) on his third start, a sizeable sort who still looked green when losing a prominent pitch running downhill before staying on well to regain second place close home. He subsequently won on his handicap debut at Bath over 11.5f on soft ground and now has an official rating of 74. As a lightly raced son of Nathaniel with physical scope, it's not unreasonable to think there may be more to come from him. His Flat-orientated yard have opted to go hurdling with him, and they have won with 3 of the 7 horses they've sent hurdling in the last 5 seasons (3 wins from 25 runs between them, level £1 stake profit: + 21.25). He still looks a work in progress and I wouldn't be surprised if he needs the experience, but it will be interesting to see how he gets on. Isle Of Wolves is comparatively exposed on the level and currently rated 70. His best form has come on a quick surface and the ground today is a big worry. However, I'm going to throw a point at him at the prices, as to not do so would contradict the point of the thread! Like Manucci, he's from a predominantly Flat yard, but his trainer has managed to win with three of the seven horses he has sent hurdling in the last five seasons (5 wins from 31 runs combined, -£7.75). The most likeliest winner is obviously Goshen, who has been a revelation with three wide-margin handicap wins on the level this season, improving his rating 24lb to 88. He's a half-brother to a 140-rated mares' Listed winner trained by Willie Mullins, so there is plenty of encouragement in his pedigree for this switch of code. Le Grand Rocher started off his career for Nick Williams in a Listed hurdle at Auteuil back in April, finishing 7th of the 9 runners, and was pulled up back there last month on his second start; he makes his domestic debut wearing a tongue tie. Chez Hans won a 12f French claimer on heavy ground when last seen in March, has an official Flat rating of 74, and now makes his debut for Paul Nicholls. |
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12.35 Punchestown
I have two qualifiers, and they're both penalised for previous wins, Harvest Bow and Leahman. I'm happy to pass on Harvest Bow at the prices, which leaves Leahman. The concern about Leahman, who two starts back was a wide margin winner round Gowran on good ground (albeit in what probably wasn't a strong race), is that soft ground is not ideal and he folded tamely on such ground last time at Down Royal in the race won by the impressive A Wave Of The Sea. He didn't run too badly previously on soft when 4th of 16 at Roscommon, which could suggest it wasn't just the ground last time that caused a poor effort, but the Roscommon form leaves him with a bit to find with Harvest Bow. All things considered, ground + penalty, No Selection |
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Good morning George, does your notebook have De Mazzaro in it?
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Good morning stewarts, not one that's been on my radar. Good luck with it.
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Just wondered if you remembered it from the flat at Fairyhouse, really haven't noticed it since about 2 runs afterwards, quite surprised to see it had won a h'cap hurdle at Galway on soft pretty easily from an O'Brien 4 yo that had been a close 2nd in a 36k race time before, even more surprised that it went off Fav, must have expected an improved run on the soft ground. Much higher mark over here and in a top h'cap, rather stretching the imagination to think it could win, but on this ground maybe a place at big odds!
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hows the comps going george
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I see what you mean, stewarts
not clear run under 2f out and lost position, switched left over 1f out, stayed on well into third, never nearer reading the form comment, could have been one for the notebook, and the subsequent win would have justified it My bad! 33-1 stewarts, my kind of price! Good luck. One running in that race which is one of my notebook horses, is Torcello, who did me a huge favour on my last thread when he won at big odds at Newbury. |
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Oh, like that is it, chav, you rotter!
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thats just a stutter,stewy went 3 years 8 months without a winner
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Could be another 3y 8 m before the next, way things are going!
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Goshen proved different class to his rivals, and although Manucci stayed on well for second, he never remotely threatened the winner.
It seems the next juvenile hurdle isn't until Catterick on Friday for which there are currently 28 entries, so unless I have any qualifiers running in handicaps, it's a few days off. Running P/L: +179.6 |
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Forgot all about Fontwell with the other 3 meetings on RUK.
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i can only assume our caledonian cousin has become embroiled in some sort of altercation at the food bank george.
a fishfinger fracas maybe,a spaghetti standoff or even a mushy pea melee |
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I fancy after a few cocktails chav, they're having a haggis hullabaloo!
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Tickets in the post GEORGE! GL with your next selections.
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Cheers stewy
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Both selections are very much on the speculative side today, and I'm anticipating being 4 points poorer by 1.30!
Neileta, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 1.20 Catterick Dragons Will Rise, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 1.20 Catterick I have two qualifiers on my dodgy Flat notebook to Juvenile hurdling system, Neileta and Dragons Will Rise. Neileta was my other selection at Sedgefield the day Geyser did the thread a huge favour by winning at massive odds. He finished a well held fifth of the 10 runners, when it's possible the ground was too soft for him, although it's difficult to know where he's at in terms of wellbeing as his form had tailed off on the Flat, having run consistently well in the first half of the season. He seems to have plenty of size about him, and it's possible the better ground today will suit judging from his form on the level, although it's also quite possible handicaps will be the way forward after this qualifying run. I noted Dragons Will Rise on his third run for a mark last year over 6f at Catterick (in what admittedly, the winner aside, has been proven to be a poor race), when he still looked green, had a tough trip, and shaped better than the bare result. He was given an initial mark of 59, however, his five runs so far in handicaps have been poor and he's now only rated 48. There has been a hint that a stiffer test may suit (untried beyond a mile on the Flat), and there is encouragement from his pedigree regarding longer trips given he's out of a Darshaan mare and a half-brother to a multiple winner at around 9f, though that said, six of his siblings have only managed one place between them from 27 attempts under NH rules  .His trainer has a better strike rate with jumpers than he does Flat horses, and while DWR clearly has a bit prove, including stamina, fitness after a three month break, jumping technique, and just what, if any, ability he has, I'm going to throw a dart in the hope a stiffer test of stamina shows him in a better light. Micky Hammond also runs Burnage Boy, who like his stablemate DWR, regressed on the Flat from an initial mark in the high 50s, but ran well on his hurdling debut when runner-up to today's rival Maria Magdalena, and was well in front of subsequent scorer Geyser, but needs to bounce back from a disappointing run at Musselburgh last time. Maria Magdalena is the solid one having won 3 times and been Listed placed, but has 18lb worth of penalties to contend with. I think George Ridsdale was going to win anyway when left in the lead after the last by the fall of my pick Three Castles at Musselburgh, and he kept on quite strongly on the run-in. Mr Chua never raced for Sir Michael Stoute, and now makes his hurdling debut with a tongue tie applied, after finishing 3rd in an Exeter 13f bumper last month. Off the Flat, the most likely one would appear to be the 81-rated Scorched Earth, who makes his debut for Dan Skelton after winning on his final Flat run for Ger Lyons over 10.f on soft ground at Roscommon. The other with a relatively high Flat mark is Hasakey, a 70-rated 6-race maiden, bought out of Dermot Weld's yard for £52,000. |
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Just having had a closer look at the other 'rags', one perhaps worth a mention is Rusper's Gift, who never raced on turf for Jamie Osborne, but signed off for him last month with a staying on third over 9.5f at Wolver, off a mark of 60.
Rusper's Gift is a half-brother to City Dreamer (by a stronger stamina influence in Casamento), who won as a 3YO hurdler for Alan King and was rated as high as 134. I don't know much about his trainer Oliver Signy, and this appears to be just his second runner, but a couple of potentially interesting angles on pedigree and the switch to turf. |
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Geyser did the thread a huge favour by winning at massive odds
Stop banging on about that winner, George! Gl today. |
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With time constraints not been looking at these races anymore GEORGE.
GL |
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It may get a few more mentions yet, WP
Well that's a shame striding, cuz your contributions were always worth a read. |
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Nice write ups George, ATB for today.
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Cheers Ryan
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I hope Harry Reed is OK, after Maria Magdalena ran out and catapulted him into the side railing. She was leading at the time and still appeared to have plenty left to offer.
The best horse off the Flat won it, Scorched Earth, who was heavily backed on his debut for Dan Skelton. He was travelling well in the slipstream of the filly when she ran out, but not sure it was a foregone conclusion at that point. Micky Hammond's other runner Burnage Boy returned to something like his debut form, not beaten far in third. The disappointment was George Ridsdale, who Martin Dixon was complimentary about in the paddock, but struggled under his 6lb penalty. Perhaps the ground had gone too soft for him. Of my two picks, Dragons Will Rise was shocking, and the hope for Neileta is that better ground and a mark will show him in a better light. |
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Still got a few points kudos up your sleeve GB
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True, Mad', but still a disappointing day at the office
 An early start tomorrow, there's a 3YO hurdle at Gowran at 11.50 Running P/L: +175.6 |