Well done, George, and congratulations on last weeks stonker too. Excellent as always.

Guinevere, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 12.25 Fairyhouse

I have two qualifiers, the short-priced fav Cerberus and Guinevere.

Cerebus is likely to prove hard to beat given the form of his hurdling debut neck-second at Punchestown to stablemate A Wave Of The Sea was boosted when the winner came out and bolted up under a penalty at Down Royal. Cerebus had a few of today's rivals behind him that day, including Kid Curry and Donnernstrings.

Guinevere, who was the first selection on this thread, was sent off a well backed 9-2 shot on her hurdling debut at Galway, having been 16-1 when selected earlier that morning. Unfortunately she didn't see the trip out, weakening out of it to finish a well held 5th (over 30 lengths behind the third Instant Return, who reopposes here), when a less than fluent round of jumping didn't help her cause.

Severus Alexander, who wasn't dismissed at 8-1 in the betting in the same race, was brought down at the first. He has a 7lb claimer on today, which may help in the conditions.

Guinevere's run last month on the Flat over a mile on heavy ground at Gowran Park when a strong finishing second had suggested she was in need of further, at least on the level, and looking at her previous form, her optimum trip isn't clear but on the evidence of the Galway run she certainly has her stamina to prove under today's testing conditions.

Of those with an official Flat rating, Red Gerry comes out top on 84, and is of obvious interest coming from the Noel Meade stable. Guinevere is rated 72 on the level and when her 7lb sex allowance is taken into account, comes out second top on adjusted figures, 2lb ahead of Malbas who is rated 77.

I'm tentatively going to give Guinevere another chance with that initial hurdling experience behind her, particularly as the strong market support that day suggested better had been expected.

sageform, the way she shaped at Gowran and being by Camelot, one would be quite optimistic about her staying two miles over hurdles, but obviously there's now a query about that given she didn't seem to stay at Galway.

At least the Gowran run would suggest she handles heavy ground perfectly well.

It may be she'll be one for handicaps now, but happy to chance her again at the prices.

WD GB
Winner cruised it
Notebook picking out the contenders well
Good one yester too

Thanks for the kind words.

I think being ridden with a bit more restraint helped today and that showed as she's turned around a 30 length deficit with Instant Return. However, having travelled nicely into it, the stamina seemed to fail her again in the conditions and she was no match for Cerberus, who well and truly franked A Wave Of The Sea's form.
She's still shown enough to suggest she can win one of these, though.

TheAnaorak, I noted him at Salisbury because I thought his effort wanted marking up given how that race panned out. It then took him another 5 runs to win, but that coincided with him being back on easier ground. He's by Born To Sea out of a Montjeu mare, so perhaps he'll prove best on soft ground (albeit he has previously earned a joint-best RPR on good to firm).
So with regards to a potential hurdling career, I'd say he won't fail for lack of stamina and soft ground will be fine for him.

Excellent stuff again George...!!

Thanks for that George - we were interested in him as one to run in staying races at our local tracks, Bath and Salisbury, next year, rather than as a juvenile hurdler.

I wonder if connections will send Guinevere over for the Listed fillies event at Aintree next month.

George
Proper well done on your selections so far, not got involved myself but find this a really interesting read.
Thanks for sharing

I have two qualifiers, Rowland Ward and Group Stage.

One firm did open up with Rowland Ward twice the price of Group Stage, which was surprising at least on Flat Ratings given Rowland Ward is rated 15lb higher!

Group Stage disappointed on his final two Flat starts, but his previous five length second over 12f to Sapa Inca on soft ground at Newbury, when in receipt of 6lb, looks a lot better now given the winner went on to Listed success and is now rated 20lb higher.

Rowland Ward beat Sapa Inca off level weights back in April, and that form worked out fairly well with the runner-up Beechwood Jude subsequently winning twice. He ran just three more times and on the face of it didn't progress, although he did actually twice record higher RPRs in defeat, including when only seventh of 11 over 12f at Thirsk when wearing first time blinkers, on his final start for Ralph Beckett.

Soft ground is an unknown for Rowland Ward, his win came on officially good ground at Doncaster on a day when the times were on the slow side, but a strong wind half against probably had an impact on that. He did finish runner-up on good to soft on his 2YO debut at Sandown to none other than Too Darn Hot, albeit beaten an easy 7l.

Of the others, Gavrocheka has been bought by JP McManus after winning a 12f French bumper and has joined Philip Hobbs. Who knows, but she gets the 7lb fillies allowance and it will be interesting to see how she goes in the betting close to the off.

Arctic Snow made his debut in the Chepstow juvenile hurdle that produced subsequent Listed-placed Nordano, and winners Sir Psycho and Catch The Cuban. He was unable to go with the principals once the taps were turned on, and although entitled to improve for the experience, suspect he will need to.
Fluursals also has form behind Sir Psycho, beaten a similar distance by that rival when third on hurdles debut at Huntingdon and she too is entitled to come on for the experience.

Say The Word and Fanforonade were trained by Simon Crisford and John Gosden respectively on the Flat, and interestingly neither of them were tried on the turf. Perhaps the most interesting of the pair is Say The Word, who had the higher Flat rating and is bred to stay well.
There's no obvious reason why he shouldn't handle turf given he's by Authorized and a half-brother to Smart Champion, who finished runner-up in the Cesarewitch Trial over 2m2f at Newmarket on his latest start.

Summary: My two qualifiers, Rowland Ward and Group Stage, are now both 7-2, having been available at bigger last night, so I'm happy to pass at the prices.
It's usually against my religion to select a non-notebook horse, but I'm intrigued enough by Say The Word to risk 1pt EW at the prices, even though his pedigree could suggest he'll need a stiffer test in time and there is a query as to why he wasn't tried on turf by his former stable despite being bred for it.

Say The Word, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 3.30 Ludlow

I hope Fleursals is ok, she came down 2 out when still in the lead.

Of my two notebook horses, Rowland Ward was pulled out on account of the ground, and the other one Group Stage stayed on well up the stands' rail to win at 2-1 ISP.

I decided, having had a close look at all the horses, to take a chance on a non-notebook horse at the prices, who was of a little interest racing on turf for the first time. As it turned out, Say The Word was very well backed close to the off, but in the race itself having held every chance turning into the home straight (traded around 9-4), he was unable to go with the principals when it mattered and faded to 4th.

Running P/L +176.1

Found it Geyser, well done george!

has your cold turkey been somewhat sated by the offerings from The Graveyard tonight george

you are the champ at talking pony if that makes you feel better george

dont mention it mate

Back hi ---lay lo........good pick GEORGE.B 

george has had some fantastically elaborate systems......the most momentous being the one where his selection had 4 runs to win and count on the p+l......groundbreaking really

none george

So let me get this straight, I did a thread where I gave each horse 4 chances?

News to me dude

gl george

Cheers chav.

Thanks for the info, Anorak, the profile is suggesting he could turn out to be a formidable opponent. It would be interesting to know how much they paid for him.