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Thread Duration: Oct 26th - December 31st
Quite simply I will be selecting 3YOs I've notebooked on the Flat who go juvenile hurdling.
On my last level stakes thread, I set a target of 100 pts profit, but I won't be doing that this time because there will be far fewer selections and frankly, I'll settle for any profit!
A running P/L will be kept.
As I will need all the help I can get, BOG will apply.
There is just one qualifying race today, the 2.05 Galway
Guinevere, 1pt win @ 16-1
Guinevere has a current Flat rating off 72, and goes juvenile hurdling after a staying on second in a handicap over 1 mile on heavy at Gowran Park when shaping as though in need of a stiffer test.
Who knows if she'll take to it or be one for further down the line, but she appears to have the size to go jumping.
Quite simply I will be selecting 3YOs I've notebooked on the Flat who go juvenile hurdling.
On my last level stakes thread, I set a target of 100 pts profit, but I won't be doing that this time because there will be far fewer selections and frankly, I'll settle for any profit!
A running P/L will be kept.
As I will need all the help I can get, BOG will apply.
There is just one qualifying race today, the 2.05 Galway
Guinevere, 1pt win @ 16-1
Guinevere has a current Flat rating off 72, and goes juvenile hurdling after a staying on second in a handicap over 1 mile on heavy at Gowran Park when shaping as though in need of a stiffer test.
Who knows if she'll take to it or be one for further down the line, but she appears to have the size to go jumping.
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Good luck GEORGE.B will follow with interest, see if any future stars are thrown up..........
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Interesting approach.
Best of luck with your selections. |
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GL with this George
 3 trainers in here for me have come out with a bit of an edge for the backer in this sort of race with their profile of horse going into the race. Mrs J Harrington GP Cromwell EJ O'Grady Looks a real minefield as often the case with so many unknowns and this time of year too, hope you can bang in a few nice priced winners along the way. |
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Good luck.
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Dinard Rose likely to be the best in time if taking to hurdles, not sure 2m at Galway will be ideal for her though, the Elliott runner Latipour was given a quiet introduction first time out and I would expect it to be given more of a chance today
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Cheers 11kv, Dr Crippen. Striding' & Tiger
The format will be the same as my previous threads of this nature, try to select them at decent prices and hope the occasional winner cancels out the losing runs. Early Strike of Cromwell's was eligible for selection too, striding, but I opted for the superior Flat rating of Guinevere, rather than sticking to my usual policy of letting the price dictate. Hope that doesn't come back to haunt me  |
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Good luck Cork
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Actually, I'm going to make Early Strike a selection too. So two picks running for me in this 2.05. At least I know he's coming here fit and in form, and despite his lowly Flat rating, I'm encouraged by striding's trainer profile.
Early Strike, 1pt EW @ 25-1 3 pts in total staked on the race. |
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Good luck with it George, always enjoy your insights
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Corky may be right longer term the sexier pedigrees for this are his mentioned Meade runner, George's first pick and Isotope. (Champs Elysees,Camelot and Footstepsinthesand respectively).
No hurdles winner for Dawn Approach yet but only 18 runners (3.5 expected winners to date). GL to George and anyone else taking the plunge here. |
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Guinevere TIMBER...
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The Harrington horse placed at a nice price.
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UL George
Interesting fred though will watch with interest. |
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Seen these run.
UL Keep it going. A great thread. |
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Just found the thread. No luck for your selection but the race boiled down to "dodge the loose horse" at which E Walsh proved hopeless! Dinard Rose would have won comfortably without interference.
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My system in those 3yo hurdles used to be back the one with the highest flat rating if it is not favourite but I usually swerve them these days until January 1.
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Well done on the Harrington placer, striding
Thanks for the comments I got the value with Guinevere and my optimism levels were raised when strong support came for her, but unfortunately she didn't have the stamina in the conditions as it turned out and weakened to a weary 5th. There is a juvenile hurdle at Wincanton tomorrow. Running P/L: -3 |
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No Bets here mate, I will post any bets I do make.
We need threads like this though to keep this place ticking over so not for the first time well done on starting one. |
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agreed. Ignore any criticism you get George.
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I've got 2 qualifiers in the 3.20, one's a no-hoper, which leaves me with Twenty Years On, who caught my eye at Goodwood earlier in the season before winning over 12f at Salisbury. He hasn't progressed from there and seems to lack a gear change (always prominent and kept finding for his win), so just wonder if he'll need a stiffer test over hurdles, and while there was some juice in the ground at Goodwood, he flopped on soft ground at Sandown, so there's a ground query too if the rain has got in at Wincanton.
Of those with Flat ORs and RPRs, he has a bit to find, particularly with the fav who got a decent RPR at Leopardstown and might appreciate today's ground more than what he encountered at Chepstow on his hurdles debut. Jeez, I'm talking myself out of this one  The main positive for Twenty Years On is that he has joined a yard who traditionally have done well with juvenile hurdlers (cue striding tells me it's a poor yard to follow blind with this age group ).So while not by any means a confident pick and I'm hoping to be selecting at bigger prices than he his, I'll give him a chance in the hope a change of scenery and discipline improves him. Twenty Years On, 1pt win @ 11-2, 3.20 Wincanton |
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Nothing leaping out TBH George.
Alan King certainly more than capable of landing these races with flat switchers rated similar to this one today (8-18 those rated in the 60's from flat since 2008).I would say though they are almost pretty much known about and this race has obviously 2 other top trainers near the fore and a David Pipe runner.  Nicky Henderson has a good record in such a contest but the real damage has been with the french bred imports which are always very interesting runners. Paul Nicholls as one would expect pretty strong percentages but also as one would probably expect pretty much known by the market, a bit of experience certainly no negative. His runner looked pretty professional on NH debut jumped well certainly with a bit of clearance at plenty of the flights, has the pieces on today ft. David Pipe probably fair to say has under hit somewhat in races like this compared to those other trainers according to the market. 2 trainers I may look at in such races from the rest for a bit of EW value... Mark Gillard Evan Williams But their runners here just don't appeal to me. Watching Race  |
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Thanks for your thoughts / stats, striding
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GL George
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Ran like I thought he might, lacking a gear change before staying on for second, perhaps suggesting he needs a stiffer test over jumps, or just needs to be made more use of like when he won on the Flat at Salisbury. Whatever, he wouldn't have beaten the fav who had too may gears.
The next juvenile hurdle is on Wednesday at Fakenham for fillies. Running P/L: -4 |
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Does not look an overly interesting race, the King horse appears fancied in most quarters more so on stable reputation than anything else, top and bottom both have respectable recent runs and if competent at the hurdles should get involved, hard to see a worthwhile wager though
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I've got two eligibles running, one is the fav Midnights Gift, who turned over an 82-rated colt for her maiden win, and while it's possible to pick holes in that form as there was nothing in behind, I thought she ran creditably on the AW last time on her handicap debut given she was a filly up against high-rated males and was arguably punching above her weight (winner rated 95, the second 89, third 88) over what might have been an inadequate test.
She does look on the small side, but is by a jumps sire in Midnight Legend, and of those with a Flat rating comes out with a nice few lb in hand. My other option is Whistler Bowl, who has 12lb to find with the fav on Flat ratings, but did show good form when last seen on the Flat over 2 months ago, running into a couple of Sir Mark improvers, including Land Of Oz who is now officially rated 16lb higher. It's pointed out in the RP spotlight that she is related to a couple of winning hurdlers. I'll let the prices dictate and take a chance on the Moore-trained runner. Whistler Bowl, 1pt win @ 7-1 |
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I am also going to consider 3YOs in running handicap hurdles and have one such selection today.
Two Blondes, 1pt win @ 9-1, 1.40 Fakenham Two Blondes was busy enough on the Flat for Mick Channon for whom he attained a peak rating of 86. A pleasing enough start to his hurdling career at Market Rasen behind a couple now rated 115 & 114, but not so good since and there's now a question mark over his temperament given his antics at Ludlow last time (race in which Brambledown was second), when it appeared he was more in favour of heading back to the stables than racing. A mark of 103 looks workable both on his Flat and hurdles debut form, so while he's now looking a risky proposition, he's given one chance given he's potentially well handicapped. |
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This Musical Stardust looks plenty short enough to me at 3.9 here.
will start to be vulnerable in these races time of the year imo. gl with yours George |
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*this time of the year
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Good effort George
place |
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Nice place GB
Time will tell win or EW |
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win only, apologies.
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Went odds-on in the run, striding, but unfortunately for me couldn't quite see it out. So evidently not well handicapped enough.
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Musical Stardust not even in the 4
They seemed pretty confident in the late market too. Plenty of these lowly summer types will start struggling now. |
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I think I need some sustenance
it was 4th albeit very well stuffed. |
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Good call with Musical Stardust, striding.
The winner seemed pretty solid in the betting. |
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Shame yours didn't hang on mate a couple of cross bars recently, I hope some winners just around the corner.
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Getting close
Ruled out the winner for price |
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Whistler Bowl folded tamely on her return from a break having been sent forward, and looks one for handicaps perhaps in due course. The fav was tough and game having looked vulnerable as Dickie's mount loomed up, though the latter probably would have won with a clean jump at the last.
There's a Listed 3YO hurdle at Wetherby on Friday. Running P/L -6 |