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Right
Starting a new thread as the forum clique have ruined the other thread.
Please can everyone keep this thread racing related only please, or I simply won't bother.
I know some people enjoy the insight and opinion I put on the forum, so please can the minority not ruin it and leave the thread alone.
£614.30 (£385.70 loss)
Monday 27th August
I am having 3 later bets on today's card.
4.00 Ripon - Kessaar - £20 Win @ 3.45 & £50 Place (1,2,3) @ 1.54
John Gosden's well bred colt was disappointing at Ascot but he got really worked up in the paddock that day, and Ascot sometimes gets to a lot of horses, and I feel that was the case for him. What he achieved winning next time at Windsor is hard to assess but he showed a lot of speed that day, and Ripon's downhill 6f could make him very hard to catch.
It was hard to give him a figure for that Windsor run but he scored a 95? on that run on the figures I use.
That run which was an improvement on both previous starts still leaves him with around 8lb to find with a couple of these but John Gosden sending one all the way to Ripon has to be respected.
Barbill is the best horse I have on figures in the race, but those runs have come over 5f, and I'm not sure 6f suits him as well. Sporting Chance who is next in, looks the opposite for me, and outpaced the last twice over 6f, I think he wants 7f. I expect him to be doing his best work late on, but suspect he will find one or two too good.
Life Of Riley is one of the most raced horses in the field and he has a lot of speed and has some solid races over 5f. I have him a similar horse to Barbill, maybe a fraction behind, and whilst he should get 6f I wouldn't say he was crying out for it. The main danger for me to the selection is Neverland Rock. The Hannon horses are in great form at present and whilst he has won over 7f, he ran a career best when 6th to land force at Godowood and had Sporting Chance just in behind. I think he should run a big race over the trip again but I personally feel the Gosden horse is open to more improvement on only his 4th start.
Kessaar has been seen on the Limekilns recently working with Legends of War and King Of Comedy and with the former running a solid 2nd running on well in the Gimcrack, I feel that Kessaar who would be an equal to Legends Of War at home, has enough scope to make the improvement needed to win this.
He is a solid win bet with a place saver for me.
4.15 Epsom - Gabrial - £10 Win @ 4.7 / £40 3 Place @ 1.38
With Willie John a non runner and the ground riding on the slow side, this 10f race has a, taken a weaker look to it, and b, started to look like it will be a stamina test.
Sovereign Debt can be expected to run his usual race on a track that suits and Coonect who heads the market has to be respected having beat the progressive Court House on Derby day.
That said Gabrial is a horse who never runs a bad race, will appreciate the decent gallop, handles the ground and is always doing his best work late. Now his wins are few and far between but on ground he may prefer more than his rivals and in receipt of 5lb off Sovereign Debt he looks quite well in on official ratings.
I see no way he can be out the 3, so our 3 place bet protects our win stake, but I fancy this could be the day he gets his head in front.
4.35 Ripon - Mikmak - £15 Win @ 5.0 & £40 4 Place @ 1.55
I thought this horse was a little unlucky when 2nd last time behind the O'Meara horse he is up against again today, and he was ridden to hit the front late last time, and no sooner than he hit the front, he seemed to ease up in his stride, and the O'Meara horse picked him up literally on the line.
He has a 2lb pull with the O'Meara horse today and I think the two of them will fight the race out again today but I feel Waariff was lucky in not getting the run when he wanted it last time and meaning he could make a late attack on Mikmak. Today I don't think his rider will be so alert to that tactic and I expect David Allan to ride a more patient race today on Mikmak and produce him later and in doing that he can turn the form around.
If he doesn't , I can't see him out the frame, so still feel there is good value to be had in covering our bet in the enhanced place market.
£175.00 Staked
Good Luck
Starting a new thread as the forum clique have ruined the other thread.
Please can everyone keep this thread racing related only please, or I simply won't bother.
I know some people enjoy the insight and opinion I put on the forum, so please can the minority not ruin it and leave the thread alone.
£614.30 (£385.70 loss)
Monday 27th August
I am having 3 later bets on today's card.
4.00 Ripon - Kessaar - £20 Win @ 3.45 & £50 Place (1,2,3) @ 1.54
John Gosden's well bred colt was disappointing at Ascot but he got really worked up in the paddock that day, and Ascot sometimes gets to a lot of horses, and I feel that was the case for him. What he achieved winning next time at Windsor is hard to assess but he showed a lot of speed that day, and Ripon's downhill 6f could make him very hard to catch.
It was hard to give him a figure for that Windsor run but he scored a 95? on that run on the figures I use.
That run which was an improvement on both previous starts still leaves him with around 8lb to find with a couple of these but John Gosden sending one all the way to Ripon has to be respected.
Barbill is the best horse I have on figures in the race, but those runs have come over 5f, and I'm not sure 6f suits him as well. Sporting Chance who is next in, looks the opposite for me, and outpaced the last twice over 6f, I think he wants 7f. I expect him to be doing his best work late on, but suspect he will find one or two too good.
Life Of Riley is one of the most raced horses in the field and he has a lot of speed and has some solid races over 5f. I have him a similar horse to Barbill, maybe a fraction behind, and whilst he should get 6f I wouldn't say he was crying out for it. The main danger for me to the selection is Neverland Rock. The Hannon horses are in great form at present and whilst he has won over 7f, he ran a career best when 6th to land force at Godowood and had Sporting Chance just in behind. I think he should run a big race over the trip again but I personally feel the Gosden horse is open to more improvement on only his 4th start.
Kessaar has been seen on the Limekilns recently working with Legends of War and King Of Comedy and with the former running a solid 2nd running on well in the Gimcrack, I feel that Kessaar who would be an equal to Legends Of War at home, has enough scope to make the improvement needed to win this.
He is a solid win bet with a place saver for me.
4.15 Epsom - Gabrial - £10 Win @ 4.7 / £40 3 Place @ 1.38
With Willie John a non runner and the ground riding on the slow side, this 10f race has a, taken a weaker look to it, and b, started to look like it will be a stamina test.
Sovereign Debt can be expected to run his usual race on a track that suits and Coonect who heads the market has to be respected having beat the progressive Court House on Derby day.
That said Gabrial is a horse who never runs a bad race, will appreciate the decent gallop, handles the ground and is always doing his best work late. Now his wins are few and far between but on ground he may prefer more than his rivals and in receipt of 5lb off Sovereign Debt he looks quite well in on official ratings.
I see no way he can be out the 3, so our 3 place bet protects our win stake, but I fancy this could be the day he gets his head in front.
4.35 Ripon - Mikmak - £15 Win @ 5.0 & £40 4 Place @ 1.55
I thought this horse was a little unlucky when 2nd last time behind the O'Meara horse he is up against again today, and he was ridden to hit the front late last time, and no sooner than he hit the front, he seemed to ease up in his stride, and the O'Meara horse picked him up literally on the line.
He has a 2lb pull with the O'Meara horse today and I think the two of them will fight the race out again today but I feel Waariff was lucky in not getting the run when he wanted it last time and meaning he could make a late attack on Mikmak. Today I don't think his rider will be so alert to that tactic and I expect David Allan to ride a more patient race today on Mikmak and produce him later and in doing that he can turn the form around.
If he doesn't , I can't see him out the frame, so still feel there is good value to be had in covering our bet in the enhanced place market.
£175.00 Staked
Good Luck
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I like one at Chelmsford tomorrow.
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As always good luck.
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fair drift on Kessaar doesnt bode well...GL though
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Yup seen, annoying with them spending all afternoon on Chepstow riders walking up and down a track, when they could have shown listed horses in a paddock so you can see how they are behaving.
Instead all we get is them going in the stalls. |
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how big is the house today dom
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^ reported
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Havlin and Dobbs both ridden poorly there.
Don't think Havlin would have won but certainly cost a place. |
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unbalanced and in a pocket until late gains....drift said enough
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Don't think unbalanced too much, he was slow out the stalls having been in a while waiting for Bar bill and then got stuck behind Barbill and Sunsprite when they were going backwards, with no clear run he has finally switched around them and in the clear too late, but there was half a gap up the rail and if he had been good enough or quick enough to go through it he would have which is why I feel he would have only placed with a clear run.
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agree about dobbs seemed all over the place.
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w/d 2nd winner
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Two selections, one winner at 7/2, and he's still down on the day.
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The Enhanced place System Appears to have failed
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For someone so allegedly 'In The Know' i don't think i have ever seen someone do as badly as what Dom does.
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i can confirm
you haven't  |
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another bad day on the thread and a heavy loss on "Hula Girl". Dom knows a lot about horses but as with me fook all about horse racing.
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Joined: 28 Jan 18 | Topic/replies: 3,003 | Blogger: domino14's blog
Ventura Quest win and 4 place for me did you forget to include this one? 7th of 9  |
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Roughly a £75 loss on the day, which confirms my fears and the advice given, that the place savers are costing me.
So from now on, unless a horse is 7/1 or bigger, I will be doing win only, as had I just gone win only on those prices today, it would have been a profit. Expensive lesson to learn, but thanks to those who have been advising that it is not feasible to do win / place and win only is really the only way to play. On to tomorrow. |
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flukes 27 Aug 18 15:02 Joined: 16 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,314 | Blogger: flukes's blog
domino14 domino14 27 Aug 18 12:09 Joined: 28 Jan 18 | Topic/replies: 2,986 | Blogger: domino14's blog Hula Girl (2.30 Epsom) - Massively overreaction in regards to it's mark, and looks well treated today on ground it is very much bred for. One of my bigger bets today. Rate reply: Domino posting his losers elsewhere today, this thread suspended as Wonga are reportedly on the brink of going bust let's keep all the racing stuff in one place please |
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domino14 27 Aug 18 16:58 Joined: 28 Jan 18 | Topic/replies: 3,004 | Blogger: domino14's blog Roughly a £75 loss on the day, which confirms my fears and the advice given, that the place savers are costing me. So from now on, unless a horse is 7/1 or bigger, I will be doing win only, as had I just gone win only on those prices today, it would have been a profit. Expensive lesson to learn, but thanks to those who have been advising that it is not feasible to do win / place and win only is really the only way to play. On to tomorrow. and learn how to lay off ir |
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That's wise, Dom. You shouldn't be losing money with a 7/2 winner out of only three selections.
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Yep, time to bet like men all the time.
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@Charlton2005
I'm not really up to speed with in running laying and that. I mainly am at home when watching racing, but if out and about have to use my ipad. I often find I'm too far behind images to even possibly consider laying in running. Or do you mean setting up say a pre set in running lay like say I bet at 10.0, put up a 2.0 lay or something, incase it gets narrowly beaten, in which my lay off bet should be hit ? |
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Yes. That's what he means.
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yeah that's it dom, soon as you have placed the bet do the reverse. this effectively turns the bet into a spread bet. you'll need to see what works for you and a lot of it is just psychology, i.e. how close a finish are you prepared to lose out on. e.g. mabs cross, could have been a winner at say 18 rather than 22 but would have been a winner at say 4 even though it lost. play around and ask for others advice.
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new romance
charlie/dom  |
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couple more examples
today blue de vega traded down to 1.3 something and the other day sharjah bridge also traded down to 1.3 something the race that put me onto this was a few years ago. 10 or so runners and 5 went odds on... |
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money tree for me willie
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hes man enough to ask for advice. thats what this forum should be about.
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domino14 27 Aug 18 16:23
Willie; Honest question I have £100 on Gabrial, it wins me £417 after commission However it's a stewards and I can take £293.00 Would it be stupid for me to do that although I firmly expect it to be result stands. As you're an in play punter and trader, what would you PERSONALLY do if it was your bet. insinuating a had a police record for being a pee dough yesterday.. todays asking my advice... |
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tis a strange bird the hedgehog.
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to me that shows growth. he doesnt know everything like he thought he did. gl to him if he keeps on that path.
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Yes, there's more to successful punting than knowledge of horses. Remember Hayley took up trading on matchbook but couldn't make a success of that and has now returned to the saddle.
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Laying off IR is a difficult one, ie set prices or set % of initial price? And do you go very low or play it safe? Whatever you choose I think you have to be consistent with it or you'll end up kicking yourself over the ones you miss if you change the strategy too much.
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Dom- whats your race reading skills like?
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I think I read races relatively well Roder2, and think I have a good understanding of form and figures, but they aren't machines and horses will make fools of anyone on occasion.
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I tend to leave a 1.22 lay against all my back bets (except very short backs) .
Kept a record of this a couple of years back and the results showed a more or less breakeven however it's the psychological boost you receive from getting your stake back from a losing bet that outweighs the slight loss of profit on a winning bet. |
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I spent 30yrs backing horses and lost a lot. Started laying inrunning coming on two years now and its going good.If you can race read give it a go, only need live video.
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Learn from they master, dom, does Hugh Taylor ever say he's having 1pt win and 10 pts place? Nah.
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