A bad lay at the office yesterday, not a good start to the new thread.

Maybe i was a little too hasty in my choice of lay that was primarily based on confidence in Sergei Prokofiev, without having at least 1 or 2 other runners on my side that i normally do. Obviously not his true running (and far too keen) but no excuses, spilt milk and all that.

Avertise was only workmanlike in winning, but considering he was up with the pace throughout (not expected) he kept on really well when challenged, in fact at the furlong marker i thought the filly might even get there, so credit to the horse and a good ride from Frankie.

The Dewhurst next, but a pity Calyx will not be there, i know which one i would want to be on.

I move on and may post later, but only if i'm comfortable with a selection, i wouldn't want to start with 0/2.

Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day):

Progress 0/1
Daily loss £64.00
Running p/l -£64.00

Good  morning ANDREW from free Cornwall

Morning gentlemen.

UL Andrew at least you get a Deadbrain nugget of wisdom AFTER you lay a winner, so it's not all bad.

stridingedge    Joined: 14 Sep 10
Replies: 47511 12 Aug 18 12:35 

This a bit different from having a few more solid ones on your side but obviously the odds reflect this as a bit shorter.

Wish you all the best

I did think the selection was a bit outside the usual MO as stated but that doesn't mean there's never a bet in what looks pretty much like a match, on this occasion your solid one blew all it's chance early not settling and it's just something that can happen.

Onward and upwards

Some of this I don’t concur with,perhaps you’d care to elaborate

Hi Domino,

I wasn't crabbing the winner at all, in fact my post read ...

Avertise was only workmanlike in winning, but considering he was up with the pace throughout (not expected) he kept on really well when challenged, in fact at the furlong marker i thought the filly might even get there, so credit to the horse and a good ride from Frankie.

Having said that i maintain he was only workmanlike (he was pushed along quite early). You stated yesterday the filly needed to find 12 lb, and The Irish Rover (that you laid for a place) should be the rank outsider, so have they improved or is that as good as Avertise is ?

I agree the step up in trip may suit Advertise (I stated this in my the lay post).

I'm curious how the BHA will react with this result with respect to his rating.

I knew my fate quite early with SP who ran far too freely and didn't settle at all, it was obviously not his true running (and he was eased late on). I noticed he drifted in the betting significantly late on, that was a little ominous.

Whilst i agree he's a only a sprinter, i feel 6f is well within his capability, he's even entered up for 3 x 7f and 1 x 6f race later in August/September (I appreciate they are early entries). He stayed on strongly in both his 5f races and i thought he was a little unlucky at Ascot not to be 2nd.

I did like the 4th from the Coventry, of Michael Bells as this is very unfurnished and open to progression, it will be interesting to see where it lines up.

Vange was 4th (trained by Richard Fahey) Michael Bell didn't have a runner in the Coventry

Good luck.

What ever your lay is today ANDREW
dom  will  tip   it to win LOL

Lampus,

My lay is Advertise to win the 2000 guineas

@Andrew

Unsure about that, but was definitely at Michael Bell's two weeks ago.

Thanks Andrew

May have been sold to race there, but given 2yo races in HK don't start until November, it could well be they've kept in the UK in the meantime. Greg Chung handles a lot of sales to Hong Kong. On the 30th July, it was definitely at Michael Bells.

Readers of this thread (if i have any left),

I hope i can get back on track today after yesterdays dismal showing, not only from me, but Sergei, and i'm not referring to his namesake in the comparethemarket.com TV advert although he could probably run faster.

I've selected a low class 5 novice stakes race with 7 runners for the lay, but it's possible a couple of the runners at least could be racing in higher grade later in the season.

Windsor 8.00 Indian Tigress

A twiced raced, Australian bred, 3 year old Sepoy filly trained by James Fanshawe. Unraced as a 2 year old. Winner on debut at Doncaster (late April) in a 6f class 5 fillies novice stakes (17 runners) on soft going. Ridden by George Wood and it was probably his 3 lb claim that won her the race, winning by 0.5L.

She wasn't strongly fancied (12/1) the overall form of those behind is average at best and she probably ran to a mark in the high 70's. Nevertheless a good first run and she stayed on well.

She was given almost a 3 month break until her next race, this time on the AW in a 6f class 5 novice stakes at Wolverhampton where she had to carry a penalty and also run with colts/geldings. Backed into 1/2 but finished runner up (0.5L)(winner was receiving 7 lb).

In my opinion she didn't progress from her first run as may have been expected, certainly if you use the some of the placed horses as yardsticks, in fact, she probably ran to a slightly lower mark.

I'm surprised she's dropping in trip to 5f today, her two previous runs and breeding suggests 6f/7f are ideal, although the sporting life commentary disagrees with me (what do they know).

Her win was on soft going and it will be good today, although this may not be an issue.

Her main rival is another Australian, speedily bred, Helmet filly, Dubai Silk, also twiced raced. She ran respectably on debut as a 2 year old finishing 4th of 8 in a class 5 novice stakes on the AW at Lingfield. The form is only average, although those that finished in front of her were trained by Hannon, Bell and Haggas. The first two home have won again.

She made her 3 year old debut over 5f at Windsor (late May) and showed she had improved significantly over the winter, making all and beating Kimifive (rated 78 then - now 91) How Far (now rated 96) and Al Asef (now rated 86) with distances of a neck - 2L - 2.75L). Of course it's not a given she will make the same level of improvement, but this is good form in the context of todays race.

Whilst BHA ratings are not the be all and end all (certainly not with me) specially in novice races, they do at least provide some sort of indication when comparing form lines, and it's the only calibrated system we have to go by anyway. Irrespective of this, i feel the form of Dubai Silk is superior to Indian Tigress.

Her CD experience is also a positive.

It's not a 2 horse race by any means, there are a couple of nicely bred 3 year old newcomers trained by Ralph Beckett (who trained the runner-up to Indian Tigress) and Clive Cox on the side of layers, the latter looks of particular interest.

The other 3 runners can be discounted and will probably still be running when i post tomorrows lay.

Yet another risky selection (as yesterday) but based on the reasoning stated above, i'm content with my choice of todays lay. Good luck.

Lay @ 3.00

13-Aug-18
13:52:03    20:00 Windsor
Indian Tygress - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:133752417302 | Matched: 13-Aug-18 13:53:48    Lay    3.00    50.00    100.00
50.00
Matched

Also I have the Fanshawe 82 debut, 80 next time, so not hugely different but marginally lower as you allude to. But debut was 82 for me. The Cowell horse as modest 61 last year but 80 comeback effort over 5f. For me two very similar horses, although the Fanshawe horse has slightly better figures, but much will depend how it handles the drop to 5f. That said if the ground goes slow, that could play into it's hands as she won on soft on debut and the Cowell horse is by Helmet whose progeny are definitely better on faster ground.
I don't think there will be much between and hope you've gone the right way, but for me personally I would have waited until the first couple of races had been run to see how much rain has got into the ground, as if it looked loose on top or on the slow side, I would have personally favoured the Fanshawe horse who is already proven with cut, and gets 6f.

domino must have the day off..been typing since 7am.

pm Andrew

pm fletch

domino14 Joined: 28 Jan 18
Replies: 2388 13 Aug 18 07:47
   
Andrew, whilst not impressive I think it would be harsh to call Advertise workmanlike. He has continued to progress and had to make his own running yesterday and fended off all challengers. I would say it was a tough performance and he was going away from them at the line. Whilst it could be fair to say time may show it wasn't the strongest group 1 to be run, it was a Group 1 nonetheless and you can only beat what is in front of you. As for the Dewhurst I think the horse will be suited by the step up to 7f. Whilst Calyx was impressive in the Coventry he showed a lot of natural speed, something Advertsie hasn't and I think Advertise would certainly have made Calyx work very hard in a Dewhurst (he was gaining hand over first at the end of the Coventry) and I feel Advertise has definitely improved since Ascot, improving 2lb at Newmarket where he won with authority. I would have said the horse saw it out well and showed good battling qualities yesterday rather than he was workmanlike, but we all interpret things differently. Advertise at this stage would be a deserved favourite for the Dewhurst even though there are promising horses coming through like King Of Comedy and Too Darn Hot to name but two. Sergei Prokofiev has clearly run before par but going back to Ascot where I was against him, I stated he had always looked a 5f horse to me, and yesterday more than confirmed it. At Ascot he benefited from a very strong pace enabling him to settle and ridden patiently he stayed on well, but Advertsie was going away from him in the Coventry. Yesterday without the benefit of that strong gallop he was unable to settle and finished tamely. I actually feel on the whole the Coventry form is weak, but I do feel Advertise has improved a fair bit since and he still ran green at Ascot, SP in my own feeling may have been somewhat flattered by his close proximity because he was suited by the strong pace. Ascot despite being stiff often has a decent gallop and therefore keen horses tend to stay better there as they can switch off, Blue Point is a cast example of a horse like that, he stays 6f at Ascot, because he gets the pace he needs, but doesn't stay it anywhere else. The first 3 were a fair way clear of the 4th in the Coventry, and that horse even more so of what was a very average Coventry field, with nothing more than nursery winners and minor novice race winners subsequently in behind. Calyx was also all out (albeit on the other side of the track) and his lead was diminishing at the time by Advertsie who was finishing stronger than SP.
I personally feel in time Advertise will turn out to be the best horse from the Coventry, whilst Calyx I feel will be a sprinter over 6-7f, I would have strong reservations over him getting a mile.
SP needs to drop back to 5f, he's been keen in all his races bar Ascot, but I also feel he'll fall short at the top table, it's very difficult to produce the goods at the highest level when you're so keen as you often pull your race away. This is something Charlie Hills has found with Battaash at courses he gets taken on for pace, and he has to over race.
I did like the 4th from the Coventry, of Michael Bells as this is very unfurnished and open to progression, it will be interesting to see where it lines up.
I said at the time, I felt the Albnay would turn out the best race from Ascot 2yo wise this year and the winner has backed up with an impressive win since, Angels Hideaway bolted up in the Princess Margaret and Pretty Pollyana won the Cherry Hinton in style, the form of that race has yet to be let down and even well beaten horses are coming out and running decent races. The luckless horse from that race was Fairyland who was stopped in her run and on the wrong side of the track, we are yet to see her since Ascot but she remains the number 1 filly at Ballydoyle and So Perfect's run yesterday bodes well for her.

I think a lesson can be learned to tread carefully with the Coventry form, especially outside the top 4, but to aside Advertise is not a big player at the big table would be foolhardy, impressive he may not have been yesterday but he has all the traits of a very good horse indeed.

chavman 13 Aug 18 08:15   
Some of this I don’t concur with,perhaps you’d care to elaborate

Dom

I think it’s chavman’s artistic side winding you up.

He thinks you’ve taken the thought’s in your head and just plopped them in a heap in the middle of your canvas.
He also thinks you could have spread the subject matter out better with a couple more paragraph’s and maybe a little more colour in the bottom right hand corner  ie:-  YSDFC

But we know that kind of colour is not your style and quiet right.

I'm only jesting

Chavman

jockey crap

wd

yyyiiipppeeeeeeeeeeeeeee  Thank you ANDREW