Got it Sweedy. Scary the price it went to I thought the 4's was very reasonable. But you find this happens a lot with a hoss that's had many chances..the layers are more likely to be generous

Thanks ANDREW 

BAMOS Sweedy!

Summary of the lays with finishing position and industry SP as follows :

Saturday May 12th - Dancing Star @ 2.79 (inc. reduction factor for NR) - unplaced @ 15/8f
Sunday May 13th - Curley Bill @ 2.94 - unplaced @ 9/4f
Saturday May 19th - Luchador @ 2.57 (inc. reduction factor for NR's) - 1st @ 3/1 (subject to R4's)
Sunday May 20th - Tayzar @ 2.63 - unplaced @ 7/4.
Saturday May 26th - Deyaarna @ 3.50 - 2nd @ 7.2 (drifted)

Progress 4/5, 11 more weekend days left.

Profit £121.50

Overall progress 29/33 (including daily lay thread) 34 days (1 void - NR)
Overall profit £1137.50

Another lay tomorrow.

Have a good evening, i'm off to the main square to watch the football.

H/T  Lay is 4.8  on here 

well done andrew. i'm very tempted to lay happily 4.10 at the curragh. in finishing 3rd at newmarket i think she ran pretty close to her best that she had shown previously and i just don't think she was good enough. 6/4 on here at the moment and just my opinion but if clemmie is fit then she wil take all the beating. i think the form of her cheveley park win is better than anything happily has done and staying a mile shouldn't really be a problem. lightning quick ( a topical choice given the weather outside tonight) could be the dark horse of the race. definitely improved on her reappearance when beating xenobia at naas. has to improve again but wouldn't surprise me if she did. best of luck to anyone having a go later.

angeleyz,

Thank you, additionally for your lay comments, that i agree with. It's ironic, i had the same thoughts yesterday and posted the below on the 'Hydrangea 4.45 Thread'

Happily is the rightful favourite on form, but there is no way i would back her at odds-on, in fact i wouldn't at 6/4. She will obviously be fitter than at Newmarket, but i have a couple of rerservations about her.

Although she's race on G/F going, she's never won on it, and I feel she's better with a little give, additionally i think she needs further this year, and her run LTO supports that.

As for the fitness of Clemmie, as much as i admire AOB as a trainer, i wouldn't 'listen' (sorry for the pun) to anything he said about how forward his string are.

Good luck today

Casemoney,

Sorry, not sure i understand the question, do you mean this thread, or ?

LOL Ghost and good morning,

I'm just a disciple compared to the son of man known as Saint Mart of Motherwell

Oh bugger it this is how i see it . .

Curragh 2.25

Defoe v Cliffs Of Moher

My take is this . . Defoe needed all of the 12 furlongs to win last time, Lancaster Bomber is a solid beast over a mile

But this 10 furlongs looks taylor made for Cliffs Of Moher, also think he is group 1 horse as opposed to the others being group 2 horses.

Tight old race where tactics should play a part but with a gun to my head i would row in with Cliffs in this.

Oh boy

I do know what you mean ref the Newbury run looked a good un. . . .Maybe Maybe im C O M Fan because i backed him for last years Derby and was gutted when his stablemate done him

Think for me now its a race just to watch

Thank you.

No im fine with it if it wins it wins, but will without my money

I would not of asked your opinion if i was not going to take notice of it mate.

No bet race for me

Another eventful day for the thread yesterday (as the daily lay last week) but at least ending on quite a high

My original selection Key To Power (3.60) was withdrawn, this was disappointing, specially after watching Vange (described as the likely winner) won impressively by 7L and looks useful.

A reserve lay, Deyaarna @ 3.50 was chosen later in the afternoon, and finished 2nd (after drifting) to Baileys Excelerate (well backed) who was also selected to win.

Elargam, the 2/1 favourite for the Irish 2000 guineas was mentioned as a lay (finished 6th) and conversely, Invincible Army in the Sandy Lane stakes as a back bet (5.2) but was beaten by the narrowrest of margins in a photo. He should win a decent sprint this season. 

Earlier in the day (11.39) i posted a suggested trade on the Champions League final in response to a question from Lampus, that turned out really positive, odds of 24 down to somewhere in the 4's,  although betting on correct scores in football is simply 'chance' of course.

Right, enough ego massaging for myself, although it may be my only chance so i'm taking it

No flat racing in UK today, only 3 typical Sunday afternoon NH meetings, but there's a good card at the Curragh in Ireland featuring the Irish 1000 guineas and a couple of group races including the Tattersalls Gold Cup. This should produce a good race between the enigmatic favourite Cliffs of Moher, and the improving Defoe who i think will win.

I'm not convinced about Happily in the Irish 1000 guineas. I feel she may prefer a little give in the ground (never won on firm) and further than 8f these days, her run LTO suggested that, but would i lay her ?

There is also the group 1 Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp. Laurens the Epsom 1000 guineas runner up should win cosily, although the odds will probably be restrictive.

My original choice, The Bay Birch (3.05 Uttoxeter) and one which i had a fair bit of text typed already, has drifted out to 4.6. Bookies price 9/4 - 5/2.

I'm taking a big risk with the lay today, that will become the shortest odds selection since my threads started just over a month ago. Getareason @ 2.52 currently holds that distinction.

Please note it comes with a pre-condition. Posters who follow the two threads will be aware that significant NR's may have been responsible for 2 of the 4 losing lays, but i accept it may not have been the case in the Threading race, although we will not know until the heavily backed favourite that day, Sheikha Reika runs again.

Trainer Roger Varian will walk the course this morning to determine if Defoe runs on the expected good/firm going. I suggest those that want to follow the lay to wait until after this decision is made. If Defoe runs, the lay bet will stand for this thread. If he's withdrawn, the lay will be voided as the favourite (and lay) would significant odds-on in the betting. In this event, i will add a reserve later.

Note i copied some text from another post above in order to save time.

3.05 The Curragh Cliffs Of Moher

I see the race being impacted by one important issue .......... the weather.

Cliffs Of Moher has the best form, patchy though it is, and he's only rated 1 lb higher than Defoe. The going and trip are ideal for him, but is he a banker ? Not with Defoe in the race, although the likely favourite.

He's a group 1 horse without question, but is he a good one. His only really decent form is from last years Epsom Derby, although if he reproduced that, would probably win, but it's a big if, and there's no telling how much he would find when Defoe is alongside him.

The pace will possibly come via Success Days, but he wants a 100 thunderstorms before race time and that's not going to happen. Lancaster Bomber doesn't want rain, but the trip is a question mark, and i can't see him winning anyway. The outsider will still be finishing when the sun goes down, so this leaves Defoe.

I like the horse, but i have one reservation, and that's firm in the going description. Only raced on it once at Newmarket, and it was poor (11th of 12) but it was in 2016, and has won on good going. Ignoring that run, he's been progressive and improved with each run, and could still be improving. I don't feel the trip is a concern, the Curragh has a slight uphill finish anyway.

I still have memory of his Newbury win a few weeks back, Atzeni was motionless approaching the final furlong, the horse was cantering, and won easily. The opposition wasn't top class, but the way he won was, and he also won well LTO, after hitting a flat spot. He may have to up his game today, but not by much.

If Defoe runs today, and it's not a given (although showers are forecast) it will be a good race, and i feel Defoe will have the better turn of foot. If he's a NR, then CoM is almost a given, but it wouldn't be the biggest shock if any of the others won. We've all seen odd results in Irish group races before.

A risky lay as stated, and i'm more hopeful than confident. Good luck

Lay @ 2.28

27-May-18
09:12:08    14:25 Curragh
Cliffs of Moher - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:126821442205 | Matched: 27-May-18 09:12:08    Lay    2.28    50.00    64.00
50.00
Matched

would have backed greedys (rm),slight odds on as yet no money for it gl abba

Good Luck Andrew   of Cornwall 

Bit worried about Laurens being a stand out best price of 8/11 with Powers.   They usually have good reason when they want to top the market.  If they put it in some of their specials bets then i would be fearing the worst if i was punting her. (which i'm not).

morning all, well i decided to lay happily at 2.54. i certainly agree with your thoughts on cliffs of moher. i also considered that one as i too like the way defoe has been progressing but i just found it difficult to split them. if success days were to set a steady gallop then i wouldn't completely rule out lancaster bomber as he did turn in a pretty good effort in the lockinge. very best of luck today.

Hi Angeleyz,

I'm biding my time with Happily, in the meantime trying to find one to beat her. Who knows it could be another AOB filly, Could It Be Love at a big price for example. I like Clemmie, but is she fit for this, you never with the stable.

Happily is drifting, and actually traded at 2.0 earlier and I still think she's a lay at the odds, she's not a given by any means.

Good luck today

Got 8/11 for Laurens , Paddy's layed me £1300 so they are happy to lay against her.

I have also had £800 on Garden's of Babylon at 2/1. Back on fast ground he should make mincemeat of that lot.

I've done Happily in a £10 Yankee as well with the 2 named above and the risky Cardini in the first. Cardini is a very nice horse but we all saw what happened to Cape of Good Hope, so I've not had a single on him, but Cardini works better than Sergei at home, so make of that what you want.

I was planning to have a decent bet on Jermaine today, he owes me nothing after Newbury but I am concerned that Lancaster Bomber might get a solo up front and prove hard to beat, So I've switched tact and Backed LB 3 places and 2 Places for £400 and £200, I'm not remotely worried about COM, I think Lancaster Bomber will beat him, and see him the main danger to Defoe, but prices make me feel there is more value in Place Betting LB, so Andrew I'll be hoping you have a winning lay today.

not a big punter....


stake so far today £2810

Domino,

Thank you, i hope LB wins for you, so we both have a winning race. Good luck.

Pity about only having a maximum of 3 up in your yankee though