Domino,

I haven't layed Happily yet, and not sure if i will, even though i think she could get beaten. I might play a couple of outsiders just as fun bets and to watch the race.

Domino,interesting bet on Garden’s Of Babylon,has now drifted to 3/1 and stablemate Lucius Tiberius backed,what u think ?

See above Tangle.

I'm reeling in shock. I've seen Lucius work when been working there and it's slow and by slow I mean slow. Gardens Of Baylon is a very good looking horse. The work he does at home matches his appearance. I had him down as a big bet last time but knew the ground was a major issue so left him alone, although I expected him to win. Since then at home he remains a good work horse and he is one of the most beautiful horses to look at in the stable. When I saw the decs and him booked with Ryan I felt assured back on fast ground he would show what he shows at home, but it's acceptable that some may have written him off. He came back lame after his last race with some muscle issues but was back on the gallops within 14 days, so shouldn't have lost too much fitness.
I can see why Lucius has been bet, he was a shade unlucky last time but it was a stinking bad race. Granted this isn't much better. GOB has headgear on as well so powers that must be obeyed clearly feel it wasn't just the ground and lameness that beat him last time but also he is not straightforward, but I take courage from the fact that Ryan has opted for him over Lucius as I'm sure if Ryan felt he was a pig, and Lucius was improving and unlucky last time he would have rode him.
But as with yesterday Fairyland was a filly everyone likes and most backed, she was second fav to Van Beethoven who is nice, but certainly no superstar. She won and proved the work right at home and why she was 4/1 I don't know.
Today I suppose it comes down to GOB, is he a pig or is he a very good looking horse, who shows it at home and bombed out for legitimate reasons last time, if the latter he'll win, and at what now looks a cracking price.

It would not surprise me to see the operation putting out moody messages to get a price and punt him late, it won't be the first time.

But on stable reputation and what they show at home, I would not expect GOB to ever get beat by Lucius, and I can't explain his price, I just hope he doesn't get some not offski dodgy 3rd time out ride from Moore.

The drift naturally concerns me, but I wont jump ship and whilst I get no best odds on my bet at 2/1, now he is 3/1 I feel I may get a decent price in the place market and will be chucking a good few hundred at that if I can get 1.5 or bigger. If Laurens or Happily Wins I will also be putting more on him near the off, hopefully at around 100/30 or the 7/2 he is now on the exchange. He could be an absolute gift at those prices.

If he suddenly becomes a non runner it would make more sense, the betting patterns, but tbh I wouldn't bet Lucius without him in the race, so if GOB bombs out again, I'm far from convinced Lucius will pick up the pieces and at around 11/8 I would be more than happy to lay Lucius Tiberius today.

I also have a lumpy bet on Happily.

It's a good question and a fair question, and to be honest I'm not really sure I can give a good answer.

I just felt it a good multiple when I placed the other bets.

I actually wanted to have a decent bet on Cardini today, but the way Cape Of Good Hope ran the other day, I was reluctant, so instead of having a couple of hundred on him, I thought if I had a £10 win Yankee, I could easily end up with more than £110 on him, should the bet go to plan (I appreciate he runs first).

I suppose I didn't want to not back him, but wasn't happy enough to have a single on him.

I'm sure that wont make any sense to many.

domino14
27 May 18 11:21
Joined: 28 Jan 18
| Topic/replies: 883 | Blogger: domino14's blog@Joevalue147
Don't forget the bookmakers are happy to lay 8/11 Laurens for one reason, She wont be odds on, on the PMU and bookmakers will have contacts in France to cover any liabilities, try asking your bookmaker for the PMU price on the race and most are very reluctant.


What a load of tosh,bookmakers wouldnt lay off on the PMU,bookmakers will be trying to get it beat and there is a reasonable chance it will get beaten,either by the distance or the going or purely by a superior filly.

Andrew you've started a real Lay craze on here

Sorry I don't read everything I haven't the time and I'm usually looking at different races.

I take it you must have started punting bigger after winning back the 15k you lost on sportsbook.

@ Stridingedge

Yes pretty much so, If Rotherham win today, from them , Fulham and Swansea bets I will have made close to £80,000 in the bets I placed on them in March. Of which the Trebele is £45,000 and some chance so I am very much in Camp Rotherham today !!, Around £23,000 profit already back in the coffers from the first two and yesterday was pretty tense last 20 after Fulham went down to 10 men. Was listening in the car from Haydock to Liverpool, Glad I wasn't driving, as may have crashed !

I was nearly tempted to get tickets for today's game and cheer on Rotherham at the ground, but the wife told me I wasn't allowed and yesterday was my day out for the month ! Next days out are at Royal Ascot where I am going all week, luckily the Mrs is happy to let me go that week as it's all day trips given we currently live less than 10 miles from the track, although moving within a week of Ascot finishing.

Andrew the  Great  THANKS

I was planning to have a decent bet on Jermaine today, he owes me nothing after Newbury but I am concerned that Lancaster Bomber might get a solo up front and prove hard to beat, So I've switched tact and Backed LB 3 places and 2 Places for £400 and £200, I'm not remotely worried about COM, I think Lancaster Bomber will beat him, and see him the main danger to Defoe, but prices make me feel there is more value in Place Betting LB, so Andrew I'll be hoping you have a winning lay today.


I feel absolutely sick, I had £400 @ 1.33 3 places and £200 @ 2.08 2 places on Lancaster Bomber and not a penny in the win market. I knew in my own mind he could get a solo up front and he did, and watch him win at 7/2 when he was 5/1 earlier. arrgghhhhhh Shouldn't grumble at profit but I was bloody stupid to not even put £50 on him in the win.

Well done Andrew on the lay.

Both had the correct approach, only I wasn't sensible enough to have a small win bet as well as the place bets. Stupid me :(

Great stuff Andrew

Nearly missed it as i haven't been up long.

Thanks very much.

I had to lay it at a bigger price than yourself.

Best thread on Betfair.

Wd Andrew

Think Defoe needs cut in the ground, he definitely needs 12f though.

I slowly run race, with a horse getting a solo and getting the run on the field in a 3f sprint, I don't think it's fair to judge Defoe's ability on that.

Hope they miss Ascot and wait for the 1m 4f Group 2 at Newmarket in July (normally get rain that week) and then go for the King George with him.

Even if the tops coming off, it was good to firm yesterday, 5mm wont change it from being fast underneath, the jar has probably just come out of it.

Also race one was a slowly run maiden, and that was a very slowly run group 1, where the winner got a solo at a slow pace, and turned into a 3f sprint, so not sure I would have expected the times of those two races to be an accurate pointer to the ground.

The Guineas and handicaps on the card will give a better idea as the times should be accurate in those.

Well done ( again ) Andrew, there's a few

On here now hoping your " convalescence "

Lasts a good few years.

Yes the first 2f they went quick to get LB in front, but from the 8f pole to the 3f pole, Seamie takes a pull and is slowing the pace all the time, letting his horse fill up. The second horse is happy to do the same and Defoe and COM don't even make an attempt to close the gap until Seamie kicks at the 3f pole. Then at this point Success Days gets done for speed and weakens and Defoe and COM albeit staying on, are playing catch up. They run their races trying to get to LB who still has a bit more up his sleeve in the final furlong to repel them. Had he just gone flat out, when they got to his quarters just over 1f out, he would have folded but he didn't.

LB is not a natural 10f horse, he has just completely mugged off two horses there, or shall I say, Seamie has mugged off 2 jockeys there.

Laurens wins easily at Longchamp

dom I thought that was a decent pace nothing slow about it inho.

Well done AIS and you managed to dodge a bullet with The Bay Birch. Happy days

are you laying happy