Didn't really look at that race Delta

the unraced 2yo's he's placed really well for the sheikh so far and over hitting with debutantes 6f so interesting how that runs at donny 2:30

and starlight mystery (remember i said i'd have backed it over a mile with big trip change up to 10f last time) gets a mile today


not backed either but they were interesting

Anything upped in trip to that sort of distance for 1st time is dangerous Delta! not really looked at that race with jocks.

Sorry guys,

I got it wrong today

I'm not sure if the 2nd was unlucky, it certainly got stopped and went to the outside. I want to review the video replay, but it's still a losing day.

34/40

UL that time Andrew

Striding,

Tend to agree with you, i expected it to be a trail blazer, but they went off very quick.

I mentioned in my post i might rue not looking at the other cards later, and that's the case

If i had seen dominos post before posting mine, maybe i would have changed mine, who knows, although only because of having a different lay, no other reason, but i can't use that as an excuse. A bad lay at the office.

Unlucky Andrew , but a Well done must go to Lampus

Mines simple ive had £300 @ 11/10 the warrior with fred 3 x £100 (Funny 3 of the lads on the market outside the shop fancied it)

Dumped £250 on here at 1.87

Got a free £25 bet to use so put it on the Young Rascal.

I hate dirty filthy arbers

Makes more sense than some of them when he is a rage

db,

Why ? Surely that's a sign of defeat ?

Layers and backers can't have 100% runs, it's impossible and that's obvious. 

If i could have stayed at a 90% success rate, i would have been happy, and there's still time to get back to that level. My current level is 85% that's not too shabby, and i'm well in profit. 

This Saturday and Sunday thread is only for a total of 8 weekends from the start date anyway and will end on June 31st, i stated that on day 1. The reason is i'm travelling to West Java that evening and will be away for 5 weeks, staying with my daughter who's studying at uni there. I can't access Betfair or even the forum from Indonesia, although prior to 2017 it was possible.

The daily lay thread will continue up to Friday 29th, but i doubt i can post every day for reasons already posted.

I arrive back on August 5th, but i have no plans to continue the threads thereafter.

Good luck

What about the fact he loves the game and likes putting his opinions up??

Of cause he will carry on lampus would go appleletic if he packed in

Let alone the fact that he is a very likeable man

Ghost,

Thank you for the kind words

bad luck today andrew. 2nd and 3rd were done no favours and no lippy certainly had the run of the race. would either have won with a clear run? i don't know, but if your anything like me you take it on the chin and move on. laying a 5/2 winner is hardly the end of the world though im sure you don't need me to tell you that. anyway i am taking on one tomorrow. 2.20 fakenham fifty shades.

currently around 5/4 but a bit bigger on here at 6/4. i haven't layed it yet myself as there isn't much liquidity though i hope it doesn't drift too much. having looked through the runners for this, the only one i would rule out with any confidence is hier encore. as for the others i can find reasons as to why they could win. fifty shades probably turned in his best effort over hurdles last time when just touched off by sweet n chic at huntingdon. he had previously gained his first win over fences when beating alf n dor at worcester so is a horse who could still be open to further improvement. for me though he will have to do just that.

emmas dilemma is the one i like the most. she made a promising reappearance on her first start for olly murphy when 3rd to great colaci at market rasen but she wasn't beaten far that day, finishing strongly after getting a bit outpaced. she is entitled to come on for that run and i do think some of her form in ireland is probably good enough to win this.

west to crossgales is one that i had previously made a note of in that i didn't think he has been given the best of rides recently. despite that his two recent placed efforts would still put him in the mix for a race like this.

amble inn is one of those types that had hinted at having some ability without managing to make the frame. last time out though it looked as though she might be starting to get the hang of things when making a lot of the running before fading out of contention going to the last. steps up in trip and probably wouldn't have to improve a great deal to take a hand in this.

i couldn't rule cocker out completely. admittedly he hasn't shown anything for some time but his form of a couple of years ago certainly has him well handicapped. the same would also apply to volcan surprise who a few years ago was rated about 2 stone higher. of course he hasn't done anything at all since returning from a couple of seasons ptp. but last time out i thought he ran okay for a some way at southwell before dropping right away from the second last.

personally i think anything under 2/1 about fifty shades is way too short in what to me looks a fairly open contest. emmas dilemma is the one i i am backing as i think she has the best form in the book. best of luck to anyone having a bet tomorrow.

angeleyz,

Thanks for the comments.

Agreed, after any loser you have to forget it and move on. Making excuses for every loss is a negative because it induces a feeling that you are always right, so it must be the horse or jockey at fault. Occasionally it is, but when it isn't, in doing that you don't learn by your own errors of judgement, that we all make sometimes.

Whenever i have a decent bet (i only layed No Lippy for the £50 stake/£120 liability in the race) or fail on this lay thread, i review the form and race videos afterwards to see where i went wrong, and to know if it was simply a poor choice for example, and I did this last night. Layers of My Lippy were certainly hard done by yesterday. Here are the RP race comments.

Red Balloons

Tracked leaders, hampered on rail 2f out, short of room again approaching final furlong, in clear just inside final furlong, soon chased leader, ridden and kept on.

The Macken Bullet

Held up, hampered 2f out, angling right when hampered again entering final furlong, switched right to wide outside, ridden and ran on well

I watched the video replay several times, it was a messy race and due to the crazy pace set by 2 up front and troubled runs for another 2, it was basically handed to No Lippy. I'm not going to say 100% that either of RB or TMB would have won with a clear run, but it would have been very close. RB was heavily punted, Richard Fahey had given her a good review in the SL and i will be looking out for her next run, she's a winner without a penalty in my book. TMB also ran well.

It was my own fault yesterday anyway. I stated i hadn't reviewed the cards very much due to bringing work home, but last night i noticed Rose Berry running and she was 3.6. I've layed her before on the daily thread, and would certainly been my choice had i seen it early morning. She's too high in the handicap and only wins on firm (soft last night). Finished 3rd of 5 (sorry to after-time). Never mind, as stated, it was my own fault.

Nice write up for your selection. I did take a glance and although not a lay for me, you're doing OK. Not many will get into the race, but Fifty Shades could have a nice handicap mark over hurdles. Forget the 2 runs in Ireland (schooling) and the 3 subsequent runs on soft, he clearly likes summer jumping ground, and the last 2 runs were good in context of this race. He's entered up in several so maybe connections are exploiting his current rating.

Precluding the jockey claims, he gets 15 lbs from the top weight, trip and ground are fine. The one thing definitely on your side is the course as it appears he races from off the pace and Fakenham is like a Greyhound track, but maybe they will try different tactics today.

Would i lay it ? no. Would i back it ? only a maybe (if it didn't drift) but what do i know

I wish you good luck angeleyz, hope it loses for you.

A losing day for the thread yesterday, and i've already described my sentiments about the race in a post to angeleyz earlier this morning, so there is no need to retierate them here.

An unlucky day ? Maybe, who knows, but c'est la vie, let's just call it a bad lay at the office.

At least i had time to review the cards today and from a short list of several think i have a lay bet in Ireland. I will keep the comments shorter than the usual essay as the forecast temperature is 31c here (seriously) and i want to enjoy it by the lake for a few hours later. 

4.35 Kilbeggan Hardback

A half-decent hurdler rated 129, only once raced over a fence finishing a 6L runner up (14/1) to Le Martalin over 17f at Killarny.

Pravalaguna, a rival today, was 5/4f that day, but finished 18L behind although it's interesting that WPM takes him on again. A classy hurdler rated 138 his jumping let him down LTO but he's sure (to be sure) to have been schooled since and could get revenge today (receives 7 lbs)

Hardback has generally been racing on soft going, although did win a small maiden on good at Sligo last August.

I'm not so sure that Kilbeggan is an ideal course for him, but it certainly is for Kagney, who is another likely winner, in fact, he's my choice and could win from the front on this sharp track, more in keeping with that at Henlow greyhound stadium. He was withdrawn from a beginners chase at Wexford 10 days ago due to 'unsuitable' ground, so hopefully it's not firm today.

There are 3 others on side of the layer, and conversely, 3 'dead wood' entries that may still be in the home straight after everyones left the course.

Going from lay to back, there is a 2 year old filly i think could win today, Mindt in the 2.10 Listowel, who is closely matched with the likely favourite, AOB trained Coral Beach, 0.5L behind her at Naas. In fact the latter was on my short list of lays. I will be bscking Mindt and Kagney today.

Hopefully i get back on track today, i've had 2 losers in 4 days and as a consequence slipped from a 90% to 85% success rate. Of course the latter is good, but the former figure has a magical ring to it. One was simply a poor lay (Friday) but i'm disapointed with yesterday, not only with how the race turned out, but the amateurish way i approached the day.

The race is wide open, as so often the case in 'average' beginner chases, and with doubts about the course (and a lesser extent the going) with several useful types that could win against him, are reasons for my lay today. Good luck.

Lay @ 3.50

03-Jun-18
09:48:51    16:35 Kilbeggan
Hardback - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:127469326567 | Matched: 03-Jun-18 09:48:57    Lay    3.50    50.00    125.00
50.00
Matched

Note there are 2 x NRs' since i got matched, so there will be a 7.8% reduction factor.

Just spent a pointless 45 mins looking at race, no flat racing so day off here.

Looked like a fair lay at the price Andrew , oh well not to be enjoy the sunshine

striding,

There's flat racing in Ireland and Chantilly (with GB interest)

You can always copy mine

Replacement lay due to Kilbeggan race meeting abandoned.

No essay as i'm off out to enjoy the Indian heat wave here

Good luck.

2.00 Perth Roo Roo

03-Jun-18
12:06:11    14:00 Perth
Roo Roo - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:127477094838 | Matched: 03-Jun-18 12:06:26    Lay    3.60    50.00    130.00
50.00
Matched

looks safe gl