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Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay
Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay
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Replies: 1,046
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your a price wise follower#
good luck one of the best |
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She will win
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laurens won france
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your a price wise follower#
Not me, i don't follow anyone |
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Or not.
Bloody hell she looked slow. Outpaced and off bridle all way 3rd and never nearer, very very tender ride on Most Gifted. Get on her for the Sandringham |
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IRE / Curr 27th May / 16:10 1m Grp1
Chiara Luna Back 126863647748 27-May-18 16:05 17.5 15.00 18 27-May-18 16:05 IRE / Curr 27th May / 16:10 1m Grp1 Happily Lay 126863581150 27-May-18 16:04 2.56 50.00 2.56 27-May-18 16:04 IRE / Curr 27th May / 16:10 To Be Placed Happily Back 126863447568 27-May-18 16:03 1.35 100.00 1.35 27-May-18 16:04 IRE / Curr 27th May / 16:10 To Be Placed Happily Back 126861097141 27-May-18 15:45 1.38 200.00 1.38 27-May-18 15:45 |
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Happy Andrews
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abba, greedy is ryan moore
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Well done andrew.
Had she won, your place bets covered the liability, so good strategy. She needs 10f for my liking. |
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Correct domino. I thought a place was possible.
I also posted this earlier in response to angeleyz, but didn't play it ... I'm biding my time with Happily, in the meantime trying to find one to beat her. Who knows it could be another AOB filly, Could It Be Love at a big price for example. |
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Well done Andrew and Angel. Top laying.
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WD all
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Thanks for all the comments guys
buffythebookieslayer Joined: 15 Mar 12 Replies: 2979 27 May 18 15:53 Well done AIS and you managed to dodge a bullet with The Bay Birch Correct, and i have to be honest, if the drift on TBB hadn't occured, she would have been the lay today, i already had a fair bit of the post already typed up. In it, i actually stated that Matt Sheppard had done a wonderful job with her since she came over from Ireland, never out of the first 2, but her Irish hurdle rating was a lowly 95. Not any more and Matt deserves far more recognition. I thought she had 2 good rivals today, specially the favourite, even though she had a 6lb penalty. TBB made all over 20f and ran on bravely after the last. Why did i ever doubt her  A big well done to angeleyz who also layed Happily, hope you made plenty. |
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hardestgame should be renamed hardesthinking..
your a price wise follower# ..   |
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Summary of the lays with finishing position and industry SP as follows :
Saturday May 12th - Dancing Star @ 2.79 (inc. reduction factor for NR) - unplaced @ 15/8f Sunday May 13th - Curley Bill @ 2.94 - unplaced @ 9/4f Saturday May 19th - Luchador @ 2.57 (inc. reduction factor for NR's) - 1st @ 3/1 (subject to R4's) Sunday May 20th - Tayzar @ 2.63 - unplaced @ 7/4. Saturday May 26th - Deyaarna @ 3.50 - 2nd @ 7.2 (drifted) Sunday May 27th - Cliffs Of Moher @ 2.28 - 2nd 7/4 Progress 5/6, 10 more weekend days left. Profit £171.50 Overall progress 30/34 (including daily lay thread) 35 days (1 void - NR) Overall profit £1187.50 The lay for tomorrow will be on the daily thread. |
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overall 60 65% roi,good so far that will drop.
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I love a positive man deadbrain
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overall 60 65% roi,good so far that will drop.
what a gracious man you are deadbrain, i warned andrew you were a nutter when you first came on his thread with your " better than thou " nonsense... why not just FXXK OFF and get back to you own aftertiming threads. CHEERS. |
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db - how do you arrive at 65%?
Are you basing it on stakes of £50 x 34? This is not correct. It should be the amount staked ie the liability. On that basis the ROI will be lower - probably more like 30%. VWD Andrew and Angel! |
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..
 asking deadbrain to explain that is like asking me about the creation of a black hole. !!!the man has nothing better to do than knock others.  |
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Good morning layers
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I agree with mic,yes its amount stake level so far
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I told you how to calculate ROI on laying in 2016
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gl fanny
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fookin slow learner
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Are we being brave today Andrew :) Are you joining the anti Saxon's or you playing it a lot safer ?
In the 2.15 at Musselburgh today I am being brave, I'm laying No Lippy. She looks a speedy filly so the track will definitely suit, but I think that the listed race she ran in at York was relatively poor and she only ran to 78, having run to 83 the time before and 79 on debut. This is not stand out form at all, and certainly not enough to make her a 15/8 fav. A couple of weeks ago I layed a horse at Carlisle called Hard Forest and I suggested the race could be a very strong maiden before suggesting Cosmic Law or Aloysius Lilius could be very decent and True Mason had come from a strong maiden. It came as no surprise to me yesterday when the winner of that novice, Cosmic Law took the Woodcote in Impressive style and for me I think Aloysius Lilius still ran very green at Carlisle and showed a lot of speed that day and if anything the hill found him out. I like his pedigree, I like that he's been gelded, and Ryan horses always improve for runs, whereas Johnston horses don't. I have his debut poor but I think it was a good maiden and he was too free to post and the race went against him. Last time he ran to 79 the same figure that No Lippy ran to at York, but I always prefer colts and geldings against fillies and I think the sharper track will suit him and he can step forward again. With the Carlisle form also looking very strong he is definitely in the tick box and the most likely winner for me. I however have more than one running for me in this, Mayson Mac ran to 80 on debut when winning over course and distance and at York he ran no race, he was very keen to post that day and he darted out to his left out the stalls as well. The time was fair and the 5th only went down narrowly to a nice looking horse at Hamilton the other day. I think he is a similar horse to the Johnston horse with that 80 debut, and the return to a speedy track will suit him. Of the others Red Balloons was well backed on debut behind a nice filly of William Haggas' and ran green, the winner of that race debuted in a strong race where the winner is Ascot bound and the 3rd and 4th have franked the form as well. I think Red Balloons bumped into a nice one on debut and her 74 she ran to is open to improvement with experience and she gets an 8lb allowance from the Johnston horse as well. The Mackem Bullet who was behind Aloysius Lilius on debut was very green and was motoring home after missing the break. The yard are not known for 2yo first time out winners so I wouldn't be surprised if he took a major step forward today. Flash Sentry and Happy Harmony would have to be very useful to win this on debut (needs around 85, which would need to be top 20 2yos to have run so far this year) but the latter travels a long way for it's debut and is nicely bred, so at 14/1 I would watch the market for nibbles. I feel I have at least 3/4 solid chances of getting No Lippy beaten today, who is not progressing, has a penalty for her wins in modest company, and will get competition for the lead as well. I personally can see this between the Ryan horse who was 2nd in a good race last time and was only just run out of it on a track which tested his stamina, and the Fahey horse who ran a race full of promise in a novice which I think will turn out very decent for Thirsk standards. These two should fight this out but I can see the Mackem Bullet being in the top 4, he caught my eye on debut and I think he'll end up a nice horse over 6 and 7f later in the season, shame no 4th place market in this, but I think he'll run a lot better than his 25/1 odds suggest. All in all enough to oppose No Lippy for me, who is not progressing and has very similar form to her rivals and her chance is made harder by her penalties and I think she is open to less improvement than most of these. £100 lay for me at 3.4 and £20 on Aloysious Lilius @ 3.55, and £20 on Red Balloons @ 4.0, Plus £5 on The Mackem Bullet @ 26 Also laying No Lippy in the 2 horses to place market for £50 @ 1.92 Good luck all and good luck with whatever you go with today Andrew. |
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A good day for the thread yesterday, a double whammy in fact, both the lay and winner were succesful (if that makes sense) and the post ended up being reasonably accurate.
I think the winner, Eeh Bah Gum is a sprinter to follow, at least in medium class, although he may be aimed higher next tme. Tim Easterby has transformed the horse this season after taking him from David O'Meara, now winning 3 in a row, albeit in classes 5 and 6. Any race over a sharp track, 5f and good/firm going is ideal for him. Another effortless win after travelling well yesterday, he had everything off the bridle at the 2f marker and jockey David Allen even had time to look over his shoulder in the last 50 yards and ease him up. You don't see that often in 5f sprints. Time of the race was also good. So many meetings of varying description in UK and Ireland today, i didn't even bother counting them, and to be honest didn't spend a lot of time reviewing cards last night. My first day back in the clients office and bringing paperwork home being part of the reasoning. I did notice one race that struck me quite quickly, and i may rue the decision not to have checked the other cards more fully, but i'm almost as confident as i was yesterday. 2.15 Musselburgh No Lippy Lay @ 3.40 A strongly fancied 2 year old Oasis Dream filly trained by Mark Johnston, a risk in itself. Winner on debut in a 5f maiden at Doncaster beating World Order by 0.75L. The runner up has since finished in the same postion to the Richard Fahey trained Charming Kid in a class 3 novice. Aside from the runner up, the form appears to be distinctly average. Up in grade next time out and ran in the class 2 5f Lily Agnes stakes at Chester beating Lihou 1.5L. It's diffcult to know what to make of the form, the 3rd Jensue has won a class 5 at Redcar since, but in my opinion, again, it's average. Her limitations were exposed LTO in a listed race at York, finishing 9th of 14 beaten 3.75L by Signora Cabello, this is her best form in my opinion. She led, but there didn't appear to be any reason for the fading, other than simply not up to it on the day. Irrespective of that, it was still a good run. The race should really only concern 4 of 7 in the field, but there is a Richard Hannon newcomer that wouldn't be a surprise if she won, and jockey David Egan has a very good strike rate lately. My idea of the winner is the Kevin Ryan trained Aloysius Lilius (obviously owned by a lover of Italian history and culture) who was runner-up LTO beaten 0.5L by Cosmic Law, who won by 6L in a subsequent class 2 race. He looks useful and this is good form. The Richard Fahey trained Red Balloons who was 3rd in what could be a decent race at Thirsk LTO won by Queen Of Bermuda (decent time) is also another possible winner. Mayson Mac is a CD winner, but held by No Lippy through a line with World Of Order, although David O'Meara wouldn't be sending him here for the Scottish air. Pace of the race is almost certainly at opposite ends of the draw, Aloysius Lilius in stall 1, No Lippy in 7 (on the rail) and Red Balloons in 6, so slightly favouring the latter two. Musselburgh is one of the fastest 5f courses in the country on food/fast ground so it could be a good race to watch. There's a slight uphill finish, but this shouldn't hinder Aloysius Lilius as ran at Carlisle LTO, and i feel he will outstay the others. Although No Lippy is the probably favourite (and rightly so) i feel she may not be quite as good as her form may suggest, she has to give weight to genuine rivals, a gelding and a filly who both showed promise LTO and for these reasons with my comments above are reasons for the lay today. 02-Jun-18 10:58:54 14:15 Musselburgh No Lippy - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:127346847717 | Matched: 02-Jun-18 10:58:54 Lay 3.40 50.00 120.00 50.00 Matched |
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domino,
Seriously, i didn't look at your post before ! |
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I will say there often isn't any viable reason for his runners fading away at york and many bounce back next time. Agree the form in the book doesn't look anything special though.
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domino,
With respect to Saxon Warrior, i posted on the ........ 'Questions remain over Saxon Warriors stamina thread'. |
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This track should definitely suit it better, anything that takes it on early has probably dug it's own grave unless pretty decent.
I don't think it's too bad a lay at the price but it's not one I'm mad about. |
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Striding,
Thanks for your input. The filly is fast, without question, but she's not Lyric Fantasy I think the race will develop between NL and AL right from the off, with RB close behind. Not much change in the order until just inside the furlong marker, when the latter two go on and battle it out. There's always a risk making predictions of race results, they can make you look silly, but this thread is risky anyway, so here are mine ..... 1st Aloysius Lilius 2nd Red Balloons 3rd No Lippy I was going to predict and post distances, SP's, temperature, course attendance figures and even colour of the winning owners suit, but you have to draw the line somewhere Good luck |
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Here is my unmatched bet (before dominos post) but i'm going to leave it up, you never know
02-Jun-18 10:24:07 14:15 Musselburgh No Lippy - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:127343619320 Lay 3.05 39.99 81.98 39.99 Unmatched |
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Fancy No Lippy to win today,as always GL ,Andrew
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Well for once it would appear we are singing from the same hymn-sheet !
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ul mate another MJ bouncer from york
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Dom post saved me from laying it
Thank you Dom |
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striding'
any view on MJ's in the last at Mussel' small sample size but jock Mark Johnston 3 6 50 1 0 0 £33,288 +16.50 |
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another winner i laid
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