Thanks for the sarcasm guys

The noise emitting from the keyboard in the last 30 minutes resembles a centipede wearing flip-flops

YYIIPPEEE good evening Andrew

Another succesful day for the daily lay thread yesterday with Great Beyond finishing unplaced (5th). As mentioned in the post i think he will do better dropping in trip and going into handicap company, but if he runs in a maiden of whatever class next time out, he can be layed again.

Moving on to today, i had several on a short list, but most of them were running this evening, the exception being No Lippy in the 3.15 Beverley. I thought to post her as the lay, but considering i did so last Saturday and she won (perhaps a little luckily due to trouble in the race) i didn't want to tempt fate again. She finished 7th, so i should have had the courage on my convictions (as my Grandmother used to say).

Never mind, i feel good about the alternative that actually runs in the USA this evening (UK time) and is the shortest price lay to date.

11.46 Belmont Park (USA) Justify

This will appear to be a very risky lay, and it is without question, but i haven't chosen it without careful thought, or any other reason than i truly feel that Bob Bafferts dream of a 3rd triple crown will be over tonight, until the next time of course.

The USA TC has only been won 12 times, the same number as the GB equivalent (it's actually 15 for the latter, but those during WW-1 are unconsidered as the races were only run at Newmarket). This is where the similarities end as the first US winner was in 1919, yet the same for GB was decades earlier in 1853. The 3 USA distances are not identical either, 2 are basically 10f and the other 12f.

In my opinion the USA TC is easier to win than it's UK counterpart, but there is one significant difference where it isn't, and that's in overall time-span of the 3 races that come in a 5 week period, as opposed to 4 months in the UK.

The last 4 winners of the USA TC, American Pharoah, Affirmed, Seattle Slew and the great Secretariat were far better colts than Justify, at least on what we know today.

It's interesting to note these 4 winners made all the running to win the Belmont Stakes.

Justify generally races up with the pace, but needs to break well from stall 1 in order to prevent being boxed on the rail. It's odd that Bob Baffert is running a complete no-hoper (drawn in 5) and he can't be a pacemaker surely (always races from the rear) so is he a 'spoiler' as the race could be very tactical from the off.

The Kentucky Derby and Preakness were both run on sloppy going and Justify won by shear  strength and ox-like constitution in both races. There's been heavy rain in the Ohio valley areas over the past few days, and although it was forecast for Belmont yesterday, has escaped much of it. The track is expected to be dry this afteroon (USA time).

Justify is a worthy favourite around evens (In UK) and rightly so. Unbeaten in 5 races, all at odds-on, 3 of them at Santa Anita. The opposition hasn't been what you would consider the 'creme de la creme', although his run in the Preakness LTO was probably the strongest line up, it was also his closest to getting beaten.

We all know the positives, he's a strong favourite, beaten several of those in the field, it's not a particularly strong Bemont stakes, so why lay him ? Here are what i consider to be sufficient negtives.

* His 3rd race in 5 weeks.

* The trip is the furthest he's had to race, and it brings several others into the race.

* The better conditions will negate some of his iron-consitution that others may lack.

* He was tiring and almost looked beaten at the line LTO

* Is he really the monster Bob Baffert alludes him to be ?

* The draw in 1 is a concern, specially if he misses the start.

* This will be his 6th race since mid-February, have they been able to keep him fresh ?

* Justify has never had to 'race', what will he find in the home straight if he's               challenged ?

If Justify wins tonight, he will go down in USA racing history and be considered a worthy champion, whilst i will be a chump for doubting him.

Additionally my daughter will be pi**ed off when i inform her that the June monthly allowance has not been Justified (sorry for the pun) due to circumstances beyond my control

Seriously, it's a risky lay as stated above, but you all know this, and obviously make your own choice whether to lay it with hard cash or not, although the liability is restricted anyway. I'm confident as i can be, and layed for more then the figure shown below. I don't know whether i will stay up to watch the LV as i'm an hour ahead, but it's Sunday tomorrow, so maybe. Good luck.

Lay @ 2.16

09-Jun-18
16:46:35    23:46 Belmont Park
Justify - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:127973214238 | Matched: 09-Jun-18 17:00:20    Lay    2.16    50.00    58.00
50.00
Matched

Your finger was just ahead of mine it seems...!

Cork,

I see you've been polishing your crystal ball

Forum is slow to load

As Lord Flash-heart used to say ....... let's doooooo it

Flash heart what a leg

best of luck andrew. i was going to put up desert frost as a lay at lingfield earlier on but didn't think the price would go low enough. i layed at around 3/1, went off 7/4

Aftertimer

Salmons your u s man

yes i did see you put that up earlier. not sure what to make of no lippy. the run at musselburgh last time gave me the impression there wouldn't be a lot to choose between her, wedding date and one i think you you also mentioned good tyne girl and for me those three looked well clear on form. as it turned out they finished 5th 6th and 7th. well when we went to belmont we were a bit lucky as we have friends who live in new york who are regular racegoers. i knew a little about stateside racing beforehand but they kind of pointed us in the right direction too.

at many of the tracks over there you see a mixture of appalling riding, blatant beyond belief non triers and some occasional brilliance. in a race like this im sure it will be the latter. i haven't layed justify though like you there are plenty of reasons why you could. there have been plenty of favs in the past that have left with their reputations in tatters. the only reason i haven't layed justify is he apparently had an injury going into the preakness which may account for a slightly below par run.

i spoke with my friends over there a couple of days ago and the latest reports they had heard was justify had come out of the race well but the fact that they are opposing him suggests to me that odds of 5/4 over here are too short. they told me that there are several in this race that will be far better suited to this distance than justify and they are backing tenfold and noble indy. one good thing about racing over there are the racecourse workouts that the horses do so you can get a good idea as to how well a horse is. you can get them if you subscibe to equibase or drf if you wanted to to learn more.

one reason i think my friends are backing noble indy is that he did a workout with vino rosso a few days ago and worked the better of the two. i will follow my friends advice on this one and probably back tenfold and noble indy. in some ways i don't mind too much if justify wins because i like to see horses achieve remarkable feats but there is no way i would back him at such a short price.

GL Guys !!

moneywise
Great horse  result

Good  morning   Andrew and  everyone, cloudy but warm here

Good morning Lampus et all,

Another bright sunny day here, and I feel the park beckons later.

Justify won, i lost, and my reasonings to lay it were faulted, albeit easy to say post-race of course

A big well done to all connections and backers, a triple crown champion who will certainly go down in US horse racing folklore. In hindsight, maybe the best 2.40 odds bet this year, maybe it even went higher.

I don't want to appear to be a sore loser (i'm not) and pre-race I did have doubts for the reasons i posted, but i don't think he's even close to some that have won the TC, or failed, California Chrome last year being just one example of this. He was almost collared in his previous race, and he's beaten a recent Newcastle listed winner rated 101 by 1.75L.

To put this into context, Mirage Dancer, who won a small listed race at Goodwood recently, that most of us would have trouble even remembering the horse or the race, could theoretically have beaten Justify by over 2L last night.

Having said that, and to be fair to Justify, he's lightly raced, unbeaten, possibly still improvement left, and may turn out to be a truly exceptional colt, up there with Secretariat and Seattle Slew. I doubt it though, but he's made me look silly once, i don't want him to rub it in

I mentioned i was curious if Bob Baffert was running an outsider as a spoiler for tactical reasons, and so it proved to be. No problem though, he got it right, and AOB does it often enough over here. The runner up may have won if he hadn't lost so many lengths after a very slow start, and i was a little surprised the field allowed Justify an easy lead, but i should stop the 'thinking' otherwise it will begin to look like excuses for my financial loss (bigger than the lay on here, although not major). 

I stated earlier my heart wanted him to win for racings sake, but my head told me to lay him. I didn't lay him to look good if it got beat, i genuinely thought he would be, and my 'wallet' is a little thinner as a consequence, so my daughter will have to start stacking supermarket shelves for her allowance this month .

Justify was 4/5, not 1/5 and it could just well have been a maiden race at Windsor that won. Never mind, i move on to todays lay, but in the meantime hope we're not going to be subjected to a plethora of best horse in the world comments in the media.

I think i need to stop the lay of the day on a Saturday, i've realised a few have won on this day

Morning Andrew am off for a jog to the beach for a swim
see  you later



On here

Ghost,

I sense that could be a wind up

I think a Gun Runner called Cracksman will Justify that Enable is the best horse in the world soon, so i will end with a Winx.

How about Hope is High - 5.15 Nottingham? 4 non-runners, tissue price 10/1 currently trading 2/1. Trainer not had a winner at the track, trainer not in form merely the SDS factor compressing the price imvho. Looks to be several with chances including the original favourite, the MOS selection and at least two of the 10/1+ shots. (We should check with Delta though as he knows everything about John Berry yard).

Thanks Andrew for the update
Good Luck